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Thread: BA Midseason Top 100

  1. #61
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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well, he might be right around #10. BA didnt include Phil Hughes, although he may not be eligible because was was on the roster for so long even though injured.

    My top 10 would probably look like this:
    1. Jay Bruce
    2. Justin Upton

    3. Evan Longoria
    4. Homer Bailey
    5. Clayton Kershaw
    6. Clay Bucholz
    7. Adam Jones
    8. Jacob McGee
    9. Joba Chamberlain
    10. Colby Rasmus

    The next few guys would include Maybin, Davis and Wood. I just cant justify a guy who needs to learn to hit still as the #3 prospect in baseball. His upside is very high, but there comes a point when your upside needs to be closer to being reached and I don't see any improvement in Camerons game from last season to this season.... and thats not good because he was and still is fairly raw.
    Cameron Maybin 2006: .304 BA/.387 OBP/.457 SLG
    Cameron Maybin 2007: .303 BA/.396 OBP/.466 SLG

    He's not hitting?
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

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  3. #62
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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Cameron Maybin 2006: .304 BA/.387 OBP/.457 SLG
    Cameron Maybin 2007: .303 BA/.396 OBP/.466 SLG

    He's not hitting?
    Look further at those numbers steel. He has 27% of his hits as infield hits. His BABIP is over .400 despite a 10.3 LD %.

    Here is a post I made a week or two ago on another site about Maybin.

    His entire statline looks good because of his speed. OK, not completely, becuase his OBP is good because of his walks. His average and his slugging are completely boosted by his speed though.

    Here is my point with Maybin. Normally a players BABIP is LD% plus .120. Well that would set Maybin at .223 for what his BABIP should be. Even if that were to just remove his singles from the equation and keep all of his XBH, his line would now look like .158/.275/.324.

    OK, now we have to say that he will get the benefit of his speed, so lets give his BABIP of .223 a boost of 77 points just to make up for how fast he actually is. Now we sit his BABIP at an even .300, which for how soft hitting he is, is being very generous. Again, it will only take away singles and leave his XBH alone, his new line would look like this : .212/.320/.378/.

    I look at a guy like Ichiro who also has blazing fast speed, and the largest difference he has had in his career from LD% plus .120 to his actual BABIP was 96 points. His other seasons ranged from -10 to 68. I guess my point is that there is no reason to expect Maybin to continue to have nearly a 180 point difference in actual BABIP to what his BABIP should be based on LD% plus .120.

    Maybin is a fine prospect, but he is not a top 10 prospect.


    So yes, he is still not hitting in my mind. He is making contact and just running very fast. He is not making any type of solid contact, which can be seen by his 61% ground ball rate and his insane amount of infield singles (21 of his 78 total hits are infield singles).

  4. #63
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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    Maybin seems to lack the explosiveness of Upton and Bruce when it comes to his swing, which is a concern. Stubbs and Maybin are similiar players though Maybin has a much better swing than Drew, sorry to say.

  5. #64
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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    While I think Maybin is a better prospect than Stubbs both have the same problems with their games. Age is on Maybins side.

  6. #65
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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    doug, speed is part of Maybin's game. I'm not saying that I consider Maybin to be one of the top 10 prospects the game right now, but I have a hard time removing his infield hits from his performance because that's a skill set he owns.

    But he's certainly hitting and it isn't all singles. His IsoP is .163. The 2007 MLB average is .150. His IsoD this season is .093 versus a MLB average of .068. He's got an eye and that's particularly useful for a player his age. As he fills out, I'd suggest that Maybin is a triple threat due to his speed, eye, and power potential.

    If he's not one of the top ten prospects in baseball, that's fine. But he's got a higher ceiling than Colby Rasmus; who hasn't done a whole lot to convince me that he isn't a prospect clubs will forget about over time.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  7. #66
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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    Oh I don't think he is hitting all singles. He has a little pop and his plate discipline, at least in terms of ability to take a walk, is quite good. Maybin has some very good things going for him. His ability to make any type of consistant solid contact isnt one of them though.

    I don't want to remove his infield hits from the equation, and I never attempted to do anything of the sort. I just stated that 27% of his hits on the season were infield hits....

    He has a higher cieling than Rasmus does, but his floor is also quite a bit lower as well. That said, I have him and Rasmus neck and neck in my eyes, but Rasmus solid abilities across the board have him just slightly ahead of Maybin for now.

  8. #67
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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    doug, if Maybin wasn't capable of consistent solid contact, his IsoD would be far lower than .163- especially if his % of infield singles vs. total hits is that high.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  9. #68
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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    Steel, I disagree. If he made consistant solid contact he wouldnt put the ball on the ground 61% of the time and his line drive % would be higher than 10.3.

  10. #69
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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I will give my top 5. I am stopping there because really, there are a lot of guys that are next in line that I just cant put as top 10 prospects in baseball.

    1. Jay Bruce
    2. Justin Upton







    Very large gap.





    3. Evan Longoria
    4. Wlad Balentien
    5. Adam Jones
    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well, he might be right around #10. BA didnt include Phil Hughes, although he may not be eligible because was was on the roster for so long even though injured.
    My top 10 would probably look like this:
    1. Jay Bruce
    2. Justin Upton

    3. Evan Longoria
    4. Homer Bailey
    5. Clayton Kershaw
    6. Clay Bucholz
    7. Adam Jones
    8. Jacob McGee
    9. Joba Chamberlain
    10. Colby Rasmus

    The next few guys would include Maybin, Davis and Wood. I just cant justify a guy who needs to learn to hit still as the #3 prospect in baseball. His upside is very high, but there comes a point when your upside needs to be closer to being reached and I don't see any improvement in Camerons game from last season to this season.... and thats not good because he was and still is fairly raw.
    Doug, I'm just curious, but what happened to Balentien that dropped him so much on your list in a week?
    Go BLUE!!!

  11. #70
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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Doug, I'm just curious, but what happened to Balentien that dropped him so much on your list in a week?
    I saw him play online a few days ago. Maybe he had a bad game or something.... but I didn't like his swing as much as I remembered. Still, he has to go in the top 15, but he dropped some. Maybe I shouldn't have had made a judgement off of 1 game.... but I did.

    As for Jones falling behind Bailey and Kershaw.... in the list from last week I didn't put Bailey on there at all and as for Kershaw, my friend over at BA gave me a little more reason to like the guy than I already did, so he jumped up a few spots.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 07-19-2007 at 12:12 PM.

  12. #71
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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    Two thoughts on Maybin, putting the ball on the carpet when you've got supreme wheels like that is a sound hitting approach. In other words, if he puts the ball in play on the IF grass and uses his speed, he's going to have a high BABIP.

    The difference between a .120 and .103 LD% is, roughly, one liner per 50 ABs. That difference could be ephemeral dependent on the quality of the line drives. For instance, during Eric Davis' prime with the Reds, there was a constant chorus of people who insisted he had a radically high percentage of liners go for hits and that it would correct itself pretty much immediately.

    It didn't happen because the numbers were directly tied to Davis' talents. ED had severe whip action in his swing and freakishly strong wrists and forearms. When he hit a line drive, it was a screamer. Unless he hit it right at you, you didn't stand much of a chance of catching it. In fact, I recall a good number of ED liners going right at IFs and eating them up. When his swing came together to produce a liner, it was savage.

    I'm under the impression that Maybin's got more than a little bit of that in him, that he hits is well enough to get some hits sometimes even when he hits it where they are (or where they could get to in normal circumstances). So his five liners in 50 ABs might be as or more effective than someone else's 6 liners in 50 ABs. It might not too, but given the consistency in his overall numbers over the last two seasons I think you have to allow for this being emblematic of something he does rather than of some random effect.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  13. #72
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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Two thoughts on Maybin, putting the ball on the carpet when you've got supreme wheels like that is a sound hitting approach. In other words, if he puts the ball in play on the IF grass and uses his speed, he's going to have a high BABIP.
    Yes he is, but is there a reason at all to think that using the same approach that Ichiro has used his entire career (despite about half as many line drives) that his BABIP should be even close to that? I think this approach works for Maybin in the minors, but as he moves up the ladder this approach will not work for him until he starts hitting the ball harder more often (ie, more line drives).
    The difference between a .120 and .103 LD% is, roughly, one liner per 50 ABs. That difference could be ephemeral dependent on the quality of the line drives. For instance, during Eric Davis' prime with the Reds, there was a constant chorus of people who insisted he had a radically high percentage of liners go for hits and that it would correct itself pretty much immediately.
    I think you misunderstood the .120 thing I was referring to. BABIP, or suggested BABIP is generally calculated as line drive percentrage plus .120. So that is where Maybin's .103 LD% comes into play. That would suggest that his BABIP should sit around .103 + .120 = .223. Instead is over .400. Compare that with any other fast player in the minor leagues. I doubt you find many guys, or even any that have a suggested BABIP based on that formula that is over .180 points higher than its suggested to be. Lets take someone like Colby Rasmus for example, who has a .209 LD%. .209+.120= .329 BABIP. He is a centerfielder, so odds are he is not some slow footed guy and scouting reports would agree with that. What is his actual BABIP? .286. Justin Upton? .157 LD%. .157 + .120 = .277 BABIP. .330 actual BABIP. Upton is another guy with very good speed. Do you see what I am trying to say here? There is a serious issue at hand. If Maybin truly indeed is a singles hitter who uses tons of speed to beat out infield singles then there is no way the guy is the #3 prospect in baseball.

    I'm under the impression that Maybin's got more than a little bit of that in him, that he hits is well enough to get some hits sometimes even when he hits it where they are (or where they could get to in normal circumstances). So his five liners in 50 ABs might be as or more effective than someone else's 6 liners in 50 ABs. It might not too, but given the consistency in his overall numbers over the last two seasons I think you have to allow for this being emblematic of something he does rather than of some random effect.
    Well, I can't argue your numbers because they are wrong becuase I believe that you misunderstood what I was trying to illustrate. I think right now the guy is using his great speed and poor infielders to get on base a lot more often than he should. Simple as that. As he moves up, he won't do the same thing as infields and infielders improve unless he is getting more line drives or home runs.

    I really don't want this to be looked at as I don't like Maybin. I think he is an excellent prospect. He however is just raw at the plate and needs to work on things in a very similar way that Drew Stubbs does (hitting line drives and not missing so much).

  14. #73
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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    = ?

  15. #74
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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I think you misunderstood the .120 thing I was referring to. BABIP, or suggested BABIP is generally calculated as line drive percentrage plus .120. So that is where Maybin's .103 LD% comes into play. That would suggest that his BABIP should sit around .103 + .120 = .223. Instead is over .400. Compare that with any other fast player in the minor leagues. I doubt you find many guys, or even any that have a suggested BABIP based on that formula that is over .180 points higher than its suggested to be. Lets take someone like Colby Rasmus for example, who has a .209 LD%. .209+.120= .329 BABIP. He is a centerfielder, so odds are he is not some slow footed guy and scouting reports would agree with that. What is his actual BABIP? .286. Justin Upton? .157 LD%. .157 + .120 = .277 BABIP. .330 actual BABIP. Upton is another guy with very good speed. Do you see what I am trying to say here? There is a serious issue at hand. If Maybin truly indeed is a singles hitter who uses tons of speed to beat out infield singles then there is no way the guy is the #3 prospect in baseball.
    Gotcha on the theoretical BABIP calculation, though that gets exactly to the point I made about ED. For five years people insisted he couldn't do that and he did. I remember getting into a prolonged argument with a guy heading into the 1989 season about this very sort of thing. He insisted Davis liners would stop finding holes so frequently and I insisted that at some point you have to recognize his norm is different from the one you're using.

    You could very well be right about Maybin. I haven't seen much of him beyond a few highlights, but he was always billed as a supremely athletic talent and guys like that can have some freaky peripherals because they're playing the game a bit differently. For instance, not all types of fast are the same. Some guys can hit sprinting speed in two steps, others take 30 yards to warm up the engine. Maybin may have a freakish break.

    He hasn't touched AA yet and for that reason alone I recommend suspicion. The world is filled with kids whose games didn't translate to higher levels of competition. In my view, it's impossible to be a top 10 prospect in A ball.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    In my view, it's impossible to be a top 10 prospect in A ball.
    Couldn't agree more.
    Go BLUE!!!


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