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Thread: BA Midseason Top 100

  1. #31
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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    Howard is striking out a higher rate than Dunn, if Howard had not spent time on the DL he would be on pace for 220+ Ks this season(yet Howard is still a productive hitter). The reason Dunn(and Howard as well) gets to put up those K numbers is simply because they still remain productive hitters while doing it. Other high K guys lose their productivity and their playing time as their Ks reach those levels, Dunn and Howard do not.

    BTW, Kearns has cut his K rate down by 30-40% this year, not doing him a lot of good at the moment.
    Oh I think you misunderstood my stance there. I dont care one ounce about how often Dunn strikes out as long as he continues to get on base and slug over .500. My point was more along the lines of Ryan Howard struck out 181 times last season, but if he produced the exact same numbers he did last year in Philly for the Reds, even Marty would love him because he hit .300, hit home runs and drove in a ton of runs. People give Adam Dunn crap for his strikeouts because he does it a ton (like Howard) but he doesn't drive in runners despite the fact that he hits 40 HR a year like nearly every other player who hits 40 HR a year over the last 15 years.
    Since 1997 there have been 113 40 home runs seasons in baseball. only 10 times has a player with 40 home runs failed to drive in 103 runs. Adam Dunn counts for 3 of those seasons. Barry Bonds also counts for 3 of those seasons, of course he walked 145/148/232 times in those seasons including over 200 intential walks in those three seasons combined. Soriano did it last year, although he was a leadoff hitter and had few RBI chances. That is one of the main reasons, in my mind that Adam Dunn gets so much for his strikeouts.

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  3. #32
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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    It is simply a "yellow flag", that needs to be watched as he moves forward. Billy Butlers AAA vs majors stats give you an idea to what can actually happen to bb/k rates when a player hits the major leagues. I am not suggesting that Bulter will stay anywhere neat 1/16, he is almost a lock for future success a hitter based on his track record and great BB/K rates in the minors.

    Bruce has a potential wart, all I am pointing out is that it is something to keep an eye on.

    BTW, K/BB rates are very important in tracking minor league pitchers as well. It is why I have never been as high on Bailey as most around here.

    For a minor league hitter a BB/K rate below 0.5 shows a lack of plate of plate discipline. A minor league pitcher with a K/BB rate below 2.0 shows a lack of dominance.

    The other factor that is just as important when evaluating minor league numbers is age/level. Both Bruce and Bailey are way ahead of the curve on that one.
    And all I'm saying, I guess, is that a pitcher has way less room to "get it wrong" in an area like pitch command. I believe Bruce can fudge a bit on his K/BB rate, but I don't think Bailey (or any pitcher for that matter) can, not at this point anyway, and certainly not in the majors. I think K/BB is more important for pitchers in general than it is for hitters. JMO. I think Bruce can be a great major league hitter with just a small tweak in his K/BB, whereas if Bailey doesn't fix what's ailing him, he'll likely be gone from the game in a couple of years.

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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    Dunn draws so much criticism from his strikeouts because they typically occur with RISP, and in critical game moments. Bruce doesn't appear to be the same type of hitter. And yes, that's the difference between strikeouts being meaningless, and being a factor.

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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    so, anybody know when BA's midseason list comes out?
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Ryan Howard struck out 181 times last season, but if he produced the exact same numbers he did last year in Philly for the Reds, even Marty would love him because he hit .300, hit home runs and drove in a ton of runs.
    one thing you need to realize is that Howards .300 batting average was a bit of a fluke. His contact rate was basically the same as Dunns.

    And BTW, Howard is also one of the worst defensive 1bs in all of baseball. I have little doubt that Marty would grow to dislike Howard as well.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  7. #36
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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    one thing you need to realize is that Howards .300 batting average was a bit of a fluke. His contact rate was basically the same as Dunns.

    And BTW, Howard is also one of the worst defensive 1bs in all of baseball. I have little doubt that Marty would grow to dislike Howard as well.
    I dont care whether his average was a fluke or not. I am not arguing anything other than the fact that if Adam Dunn put up the counting stats that Howard did, no one would talk about him striking out too much.

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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    Dunn draws so much criticism from his strikeouts because they typically occur with RISP, and in critical game moments. Bruce doesn't appear to be the same type of hitter. And yes, that's the difference between strikeouts being meaningless, and being a factor.
    Dunn's K rate is actually better with RISP than with the bases empty. It is only slightly better though.

  9. #38
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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I dont care whether his average was a fluke or not. I am not arguing anything other than the fact that if Adam Dunn put up the counting stats that Howard did, no one would talk about him striking out too much.
    as long as you realize that the numbers of players who put up numbers like Howard, while not being steriod induced, is a very small pool covering the history of the game. Howards season was better than any season in Reds history(counting stats), save maybe one(77 Foster). If that is what it takes to gain approval I would say it is a losing proposition from day one.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  10. #39
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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    I think Doug's point is that if Dunn drove in 130+ runs, Marty and company would ease up on him about the strikeouts.

  11. #40
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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    I think Doug's point is that if Dunn drove in 130+ runs, Marty and company would ease up on him about the strikeouts.
    Exactly. I thought I was making it fairly clear. Heck I think if Dunn drove in 115 Marty and others would ease up on him. The fact of the matter is though historically he is one of the worst players to drive in runs for guys that hit 40 home runs over the last 11 seasons.

  12. #41
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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    I think Doug's point is that if Dunn drove in 130+ runs, Marty and company would ease up on him about the strikeouts.
    RBIs are a team dependent stat. I would dare say that Howard was more than helped a little by guys named Rollins, Abreu and Utley.

    Howard would be hard pressed to duplicate it with a team that had Freel, the versions of Jr(non 2007) and the myriad of 2 hole hitters the Reds have had there.

    130+ RBI seasons are awfuly rare.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  13. #42
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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    I don't disagree with you flyer. Howard certainly had better players hitting in front of him than Dunn did. Who was typically Howard's protection last year?

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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    uggghhh, can we not hijack one simple thread that has nothing to do with Adam Dunn?!?!
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    uggghhh, can we not hijack one simple thread that has nothing to do with Adam Dunn?!?!
    This is probably my fault. I threw the thought out there that Bruce may not be well received when he arrives in Cincinnati due to his strikeout rate. I apologize for indirectly getting this ball rolling. I honestly did not intend for this thread to turn into a Dunn debate.

  16. #45
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    Re: BA Midseason Top 100

    Just thought I would toss this into the mix

    http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotr...ood-for-2.html
    3. I'm no scout -- I only play one for the Tribune and Baseball America -- but the two best-looking players I saw were Cincinnati right fielder Jay Bruce and Upton, who is playing center field but has the ability to play shortstop or anywhere else except catcher. Bruce, who is tearing up Double-A, is a monster who might make Adam Dunn expendable. He raced to third base on a triple off the top of the wall in right-center -- the deepest part of the park -- and fired a bullet to the plate at one point.


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