Time will tell. I suggest we all keep track of his progress, and update this thread at the end of the year.
He was a minor leaguer in our system,and since he is not on the Reds I was not sure if I should post it on The Sun Deck.
Germano has had as much success on the road as at home. Also, it's interesting to compare his ERA to two S.D. teammates: Maddux, 4.19, Wells, 4.31. Germano: 3.90. Ballpark considerations should be relatively irrelevant there. I assume Reds fans would like to have either Maddux or Wells in our rotation. Certainly the book is still out on Germano. In fact, we don't have enough data to know what he's likely to do. But he has won 5 games, pitched at least as well as anyone in our rotation except for Harang. Let's give him credit for what he's accomplished. It's hard to see how anyone could defend Krivsky's trading him for Cormier. In my view, it's one of several very bad decisions he has made and part of a disturbing pattern of trading major league quality talent for no return: Kearns, Lopez, Harris, C.Ross, Germano, Hancock. By next year we may be adding Denorfia to that list. That's a lot of major league value for any club to lose without any major league return.
We laso got everyone of thoses players, save Kearns, in trades giving up little to get them in the first place.
I'd take Billy Bray over any one of those players today.
At the time of the trade of Germano to Philadelphia, Cormier was a good pickup on paper. During 2006 in Philly, his ERA was 1.59 in 43 appearances. He had allowed only 2 HR in 34 innings. His K/BB was not great (13/13) but he got batters out and kept the other team from scoring.
Meanwhile, Germano's ERA was 5.40 and he had given up one HR in 6 innings. Perhaps that's not a large enough sample size, but during his first tenure in San Diego his ERA was 8.86 after 21 innings and 5 starts. (Those numbers would have many calling for him to be sent to Louisville or released outright.)
I believe most of us would have traded for Cormier in 2006 as well given those numbers.
if your not willing to trade AAA starters for major league relievers then what are you willing to trade? Its not like Germano is some cant miss pitcher. Like others have said he was given chances before. Cormier was having a great season and is about the best kind of reliever your going to get through a trade unless you give more than they are worth. Its easy to second guess after the fact. At the time of the trade I too would have liked to see Germano stay in the Reds organization but you have to remember they were desperate for pen help and Cormier was cheap for the year he was having.
It's good not to make trades from desperation. They'll almost certainly be bad. Pointing out Krivsky's bad trades is not second guessing. It's making clear what he cannot continue to do if the organization is to stay even mildly competitive--that is, consistently give away major league value for no return. He's done that six times so far--Kearns, Lopez, Harris, Hancock, C.Ross, Germano. It looks like he may have done it again in Denorfia for McBeth, and he has quite possibly done it in last year's draft, where he spent an 8th pick in the first round (not just a first-round pick, the 8th pick overall) on a guy whose major league future looks very very remote at the moment. If he does as badly in the next round of trades he's going to make, he's gone.
At the time Germano for Cormier looked like a good trade that might give the Reds a good reliever who might make a difference to get them to the postseason. Things did not work out the way the Reds would have liked, and they lost a potential prospect for a pitcher who wasn't here long. Things sometimes happen that way in trades, and we will see if Krivsky can do better when he deals with the trade deadline at the end of the month.
How many times is Krivsky going to be allowed to make similar mistakes? That's the only question that matters regarding his management.
So now we can add Germano to the list:
If the Reds only kept Lopez (.242 BA, 4 HR), Kearns (.250 BA, 5HR), and Germano, they'd be the best team in the NL.
Anyway, I don't wish anything bad for Germano but he's definitely trending down lately. He's only given up 7 HR all year but 4 of them have been in his last 3 starts. His ERA in May was 1.08; in June it was 4.03; after 2 starts in July it's 10.13. His K/BB ratio is trending down as well: May - almost 5:1. June - 3:1. July - 1:1.
Still, he could turn out to be a great pitcher. I just believe it's a bit early to deem him a mistake trade by Krivsky.
I don't think the mistake was necessarily in trading him, but trading him for a pitcher who was bad enough to be released by the team a year later. It may have loked like a good trade at the time for Krivsky, but I am sure he could have gotten a better player in return than Rheal Cormier. I am sure Germano will go through a bad steak like he is now, but I think we should have picked him up again after the Phillies released him