Justin Germano

[Orenda]

I don't think the mistake was necessarily in trading him, but trading him for a pitcher who was bad enough to be released by the team a year later. It may have loked like a good trade at the time for Krivsky, but I am sure he could have gotten a better player in return than Rheal Cormier. I am sure Germano will go through a bad steak like he is now, but I think we should have picked him up again after the Phillies released him

I'm starting to wonder about his talent evaluation skills. To his credit he has Brandon Phillips, but that wasn't a risky move. Also people never remember Jeff Stevens, the ptbnl for Phillips, who is turning into a good relief prospect for Cleveland. He also brought in Harris and Cody Ross then gives them away. So far he's missed on Cormier, Majewski, Harris, Germano, and Saarloos. Also time will tell on Bray, Stanton, and the Arroyo extension. I should probably credit him D. Ross as well. Hatteberg was available and Krivsky picked him up and its worked for both parties (much like ol' Jimbo and Dimitri Young) which was another small low risk transaction. I would throw in Stubbs name, but they have some other promising picks.

[HokieRed]

Maybe doesn't belong on a Germano thread, but previous posters have suggested Krivsky's never given away anything we could use. So, in addition to Germano, currently outpitching David Wells and Greg Maddux, we should mention that Josh Hancock did make 70 appearances for the World-Champion Cardinals last year and would easily have been our second-best reliever, that Brendan Harris's line is now .310/.365/.463/.828, and also that Cody Ross put up .302/.383/.642/1.025, with 4 homers and 14 RBI's in his 53 AB this season before his injury. Actually that's the kind of line one looks for in the run-producer types that the Reds always seem to be looking for.

[nate]

Maybe doesn't belong on a Germano thread, but previous posters have suggested Krivsky's never given away anything we could use. So, in addition to Germano, currently outpitching David Wells and Greg Maddux

Lots of guys are outpitching David Wells and Greg Maddux this year. For example, Kyle Lohse. Looks like the Padres caught the lightning that the Phillies dumped out of the bottle.

, we should mention that Josh Hancock did make 70 appearances for the World-Champion Cardinals last year and would easily have been our second-best reliever,

How is this Krivsky's fault?

Josh Hancock
January 12, 2006: Released by the Cincinnati Reds.

Reds hire Krivsky as new general manager
February 8, 2006

that Brendan Harris's line is now .310/.365/.463/.828,

That one, I don't understand. Probably thinking about getting a "name" SS to fill that position.

and also that Cody Ross put up .302/.383/.642/1.025, with 4 homers and 14 RBI's in his 53 AB this season before his injury. Actually that's the kind of line one looks for in the run-producer types that the Reds always seem to be looking for.

But .227/.293/.431/.724 in 102 games in 2006. Who is the real Cody Ross? I think he's closer to the guy whose career stats are 232/.300/.445/.745. Besides, who would he play over?

[DTCromer]

Lots of guys are outpitching David Wells and Greg Maddux this year. For example, Kyle Lohse. Looks like the Padres caught the lightning that the Phillies dumped out of the bottle.



How is this Krivsky's fault?







That one, I don't understand. Probably thinking about getting a "name" SS to fill that position.



But .227/.293/.431/.724 in 102 games in 2006. Who is the real Cody Ross? I think he's closer to the guy whose career stats are 232/.300/.445/.745. Besides, who would he play over?

Come on Nate. . .quit being so reasonable.

[HokieRed]

What's reasonable? My memory's not good enough for me to be absolutely sure of this but I do think Hancock's release was simply to get him off the 40 man, then he was re-invited to spring training as a non-roster invitee and Narron got pissed off at him early in the pitcher-catchers period--when K was GM.
Second, what does the fact Kyle Lohse is outpitching Maddux and Wells have to do with the fact Germano is also? How do you get from our having Kyle Lohse to its being ok to trade Germano for nothing? I cited Maddux and Wells because all the Krivsky adorers always say Germano's success is simply a function of the ballpark at S.D. So Maddux and Wells provide reasonable comparisons.
As to Cody Ross, the book is completely out. Even if you take his .745 line and correct it for GABP, you'd get something we could use. And even if you think we can't use him, that's no justification for getting next to nothing in return for him.

[durl]

I stated it earlier, but Germano's good start this year is fading a bit and his numbers are reverting back to what they were when the Reds traded him. It could just be a slump but he's been trending downward pretty hard since the end of May.

Lohse's career ERA when the Reds acquired him (5.18) was better than Germano's when the Reds let him go (7.13 career ERA). Germano had less time in the majors, true, but I wonder if we need to wait at least until the end of the season before we deem Germano to be a gem that got away.

[jimbo]

So, in addition to Germano, currently outpitching David Wells and Greg Maddux.....

I beg to differ. Have you checked some of Germano's most recent starts? His most recent having given up 7 earned runs in 4 innings. His overall numbers are still nice looking because of what he did in his first month or so after being called up. His ERA since though has been on a consistant rise and he is beginning to show why he is mediocre at best. There is no way in he!! I'd take Germano over Maddux or Wells, even at this point of their careers.

Krivsky shouldn't be judged by a small number of starts from Germano, besides he isn't the only one who has passed him up. There are reasons why he has never been considered more than a back of the rotation start, at best.

[nate]

What's reasonable? My memory's not good enough for me to be absolutely sure of this but I do think Hancock's release was simply to get him off the 40 man, then he was re-invited to spring training as a non-roster invitee and Narron got pissed off at him early in the pitcher-catchers period--when K was GM.

He signed with St. Louis about 3 weeks or so after his release. I remember something like what you said but am a little vague on what exactly happened. I do remember that it was Jerry who talked about the move more than Wayne so I think it was Jerry's call rather than Wayne's.

Second, what does the fact Kyle Lohse is outpitching Maddux and Wells have to do with the fact Germano is also? How do you get from our having Kyle Lohse to its being ok to trade Germano for nothing? I cited Maddux and Wells because all the Krivsky adorers always say Germano's success is simply a function of the ballpark at S.D. So Maddux and Wells provide reasonable comparisons.

I'm not sure pointing out that the Reds weren't the only team that didn't think Germano was worth keeping makes one a "Krivsky Adorer".

We traded Germano for Frenchy because we were in the thick of a playoff berth. Frenchy looked to be an "OK" gamble for Germano who didn't really look to be a much better option than what we had at the time. Germano had a single, non-descript start with the Reds and then was gone to Philly.

That 3.90 ERA is sexy but when viewed without beer goggles, it renders thusly:

July: 10.13
June: 4.03
May: 1.08

Besides, if Kyle Lohse outpitches Maddux and Wells in GABP then he's _GOT TO_ be better than Germano, right?

(that was a joke)

As to Cody Ross, the book is completely out. Even if you take his .745 line and correct it for GABP, you'd get something we could use. And even if you think we can't use him, that's no justification for getting next to nothing in return for him.

As I recall, the deal was made so he could go somewhere and play every day. There was nowhere for him to play on the Reds with Dunn / Griffey / Kearns and Freel blocking the way. I really don't lose any sleep over that move.

I think my main point was that you can't look at these moves purely in hindsight.

[HokieRed]

Of course I don't think Germano is a better pitcher than Wells or Maddux. The point is a whole lot of people on this board constantly run down Germano because he's pitching in SD. My point is simply that Wells and Maddux are also pitching in SD, so if you want something like meaningful comps, that's a way to do it.
As to comparing Kyle Lohse to Germano, I just don't see why this is relevant. Having Kyle Lohse is one thing, having Germano is another. It's perfectly possible to have both. It's also perfectly possible to hold on to some players that you might not think fit your immediate plans--C.Ross, Harris--and let them acquire value, after which you can trade them for something. Whatever Germano, Harris, and C.Ross turn out to be, the fact is Krivsky got exactly nothing for them--for three guys good enough to be on the major league rosters of teams that are at least as good as the Reds.

[AmarilloRed]

I suppose this is the risk you take when you trade AAA prospects for older, marginal players.

[nate]

Of course I don't think Germano is a better pitcher than Wells or Maddux. The point is a whole lot of people on this board constantly run down Germano because he's pitching in SD. My point is simply that Wells and Maddux are also pitching in SD, so if you want something like meaningful comps, that's a way to do it.
As to comparing Kyle Lohse to Germano, I just don't see why this is relevant. Having Kyle Lohse is one thing, having Germano is another. It's perfectly possible to have both. It's also perfectly possible to hold on to some players that you might not think fit your immediate plans--C.Ross, Harris--and let them acquire value, after which you can trade them for something. Whatever Germano, Harris, and C.Ross turn out to be, the fact is Krivsky got exactly nothing for them--for three guys good enough to be on the major league rosters of teams that are at least as good as the Reds.

Here are the points I was trying to make:

1. I felt you only looked at these moves in hindsight. At the time, these guys were moved because the Reds had other needs. Whether that's trading for another player or no position to play.

2. Maybe Wayne did get the best deal he could for these players. We don't know who he contacted, what was offered, etc. and we never will. You say we got nothing, well, maybe that was the best deal on the table.

It seems to me that your entire argument is that because these players have pretty looking numbers now, Wayne should've gotten more from them when their numbers weren't so good. I don't agree with that.

Of the three, I think Harris would've been worth hanging on to, though.

[Orenda]

Of course I don't think Germano is a better pitcher than Wells or Maddux. The point is a whole lot of people on this board constantly run down Germano because he's pitching in SD. My point is simply that Wells and Maddux are also pitching in SD, so if you want something like meaningful comps, that's a way to do it.
As to comparing Kyle Lohse to Germano, I just don't see why this is relevant. Having Kyle Lohse is one thing, having Germano is another. It's perfectly possible to have both. It's also perfectly possible to hold on to some players that you might not think fit your immediate plans--C.Ross, Harris--and let them acquire value, after which you can trade them for something. Whatever Germano, Harris, and C.Ross turn out to be, the fact is Krivsky got exactly nothing for them--for three guys good enough to be on the major league rosters of teams that are at least as good as the Reds.

With the lack of depth in the organization's farm system guys like Germano, Harris, and C. Ross would help tremendously. Germano I can't throw into that argument because he was dealt for what Krivsky thought would be a useful part (same for J. Moran for Conine). So what was good for Harris and Ross was not good for the Reds. Yes they might not have been everyday players but they could help the big club for cheap, and they would have also increased [B]competition[B] in the minor league system. Didn't Dustin Moseley make comments about how much more competitive it was once he got to the Angels?

[JLB5]

The bottom line is that this stuff happens with every organization. Shuffling guys on and off the 40 man roster often leads to marginal prospects like Germano, Harris, and Ross moving on to other organizations while the Reds bring in others like Livingston, Burton, McBeth, and Pedro Lopez. Occassionally, one of these marginal players becomes as star like Harang who was viewed as expendable by the A's, but more times than not they have brief and limited success. You can't keep 50 players on the 40 man roster, so occassionally you have to let someone go. Harris is a good example as he wasn't going to play over Phillips, A Gon, or Edwin and they had Castro, Freel, and Keppinger on the 40. If the guy hits .330 for the next two years, then I'll call it a dumb move. However, nothing in his minor league numbers indicates he'll keep up his current pace.

[Orenda]

Why trade for Keppinger when you had Harris? Harris was more valuable simply because he could play 3b, 2b, and ss. Harang is not a good example because he was dealt for Guillen, it was simply the A's dealing depth. I think any young 6'7 pitcher with major league experience is not likely to be acquired and dumped in a calendar year. Depth is not achieved by trading fringe players with no better option to replace them. Also, Livingston and Lopez were waiver claims and Burton was an unprotected Rule V guy. Both Harris and Ross were acquired, meaning that we gave up something for them and then shipped them out for nothing. Yes this is the way of baseball sometimes, but when you make a habit of making these types of moves you can thin your system. Did they recieve cash for Harris?

[Screwball]

I'm starting to wonder about his talent evaluation skills. To his credit he has Brandon Phillips, but that wasn't a risky move. Also people never remember Jeff Stevens, the ptbnl for Phillips, who is turning into a good relief prospect for Cleveland. He also brought in Harris and Cody Ross then gives them away. So far he's missed on Cormier, Majewski, Harris, Germano, and Saarloos. Also time will tell on Bray, Stanton, and the Arroyo extension. I should probably credit him D. Ross as well. Hatteberg was available and Krivsky picked him up and its worked for both parties (much like ol' Jimbo and Dimitri Young) which was another small low risk transaction. I would throw in Stubbs name, but they have some other promising picks.

You somehow left acquiring Josh Hamilton off the list. Going out and getting a player of that talent for nothing is a phenomenal job on Krivsky's part.

Also, why some fans want to somehow discredit some of Wayne's moves for being low-risk because he didn't have to give up much is beyond me. Would giving up Joey Votto for Brandon Phillips make it a better move? It'd sure be a heck of a lot riskier, so therefore Wayne would then get more accolades, right? IMO, if anything, Krivsky should be given more credit for acquiring talents like Phillips, Hamilton, Hatteberg, etc. while keeping the farm system intact - especially the top prospects.