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Thread: City Beat Cover Story - Reds: Relief in Sight?

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    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    City Beat Cover Story - Reds: Relief in Sight?

    This week's City Beat Magazine features a cover story by Bill Peterson discussing the Reds season, the major league races and the Central Divison, in particular.

    The one line that jumped out at me (although not the essence of the article), which he used twice, was "if they're just a little better they're a lot better."

    It's got some nice analysis in it. I hope the link doesn't go stale after this week's issue is history. It's a good enough article, worth finding the hardcopy at a stand.

    http://citybeat.com/gyrobase/Content?oid=oid%3A140186

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    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: City Beat Cover Story - Reds: Relief in Sight?

    The bullpen needs to get a lot better, not just a little better.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

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    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: City Beat Cover Story - Reds: Relief in Sight?

    And if the Reds find a couple more relievers who can keep games close when the club falls behind, they have the offense to come back and win a few. They can climb in the standings and maybe work their way up to third place, if all breaks well. If they can add a couple of productive relievers without tearing up their club.
    Do they give out trophies for third place? I'd argue they need more than a couple of productive relievers.

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    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: City Beat Cover Story - Reds: Relief in Sight?

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    Do they give out trophies for third place? I'd argue they need more than a couple of productive relievers.
    Finishing third in 2007 would be an astonishing story giving the team's first half. No, there are no trophies for third place. Peterson is correct though that help has to be made without tearing up the club.

    I liked this portion about pennant races in general

    The season is long, forgiving of slumps and demanding of persistence. Of all the sports, the baseball season is the best season not just because it has the most room for ebbs and flows but because it's the most meaningful competition.

    The baseball season actually eliminates worthy clubs. A baseball club left out of the playoffs might have been good enough to win the World Series. In any other sport, going to the playoffs just means you're not terrible.

    Come October, someone will be heartbroken. Someone's going to say that if they could have just keep it together for a couple more months they would have won it all.

    The Reds might have been saying that last October, or the Chicago White Sox. Now one thinks the real Reds and White Sox are the clubs that tanked the second half of last year rather than the clubs with winning records at last year's All-Star break.

    The National League is so wide open right now that virtually nothing can be ruled out or predicted. The New York Mets, the National League's best club by many assessments, haven't created meaningful distance between themselves and the Atlanta Braves or the Phillies in the National League East. The San Diego Padres went to the break with the National League's best record (49-38), and they could finish third in their division without slumping.

    And how much of what's happening in the NL Central right now is real? A .500 club is a title contender, yet clubs that ought to be .500 clubs aren't cutting it.

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    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: City Beat Cover Story - Reds: Relief in Sight?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz View Post
    Finishing third in 2007 would be an astonishing story giving the team's first half. No, there are no trophies for third place. Peterson is correct though that help has to be made without tearing up the club.
    So they should be buyers at the deadline?

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    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: City Beat Cover Story - Reds: Relief in Sight?

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    So they should be buyers at the deadline?
    I'm not saying that exactly. I'm not keen on them being "sellers" if it means destroying the club. It's more complicated than being Buyers or Sellers, IMO. Peterson's point was that this club could finish well if they stabilize the pen without clobbering the current team.

    Now I'm not adverse to being Sellers if it gives us some good players for the future, preferably the very near future. If topnotch players like Griffey or Dunn are dealt, I want top price.

    His comment about being a little player means they're much better rang true with me - some of us have said this club isn't as horrible as its record. I'd be happy to finish third, but I wouldn't gear my trading to reach that goal if it means we're not getting top dollar for what we're trading.

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    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: City Beat Cover Story - Reds: Relief in Sight?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz View Post
    I'm not saying that exactly. I'm not keen on them being "sellers" if it means destroying the club. It's more complicated than being Buyers or Sellers, IMO. Peterson's point was that this club could finish well if they stabilize the pen without clobbering the current team.
    To do that, they would have to be incredibly lucky.

    We're talking Bray being healthy and pitching up to his potential, Majewski being healthy (big stretch) and pitching better than he ever has before, and Guardado being healthy and pitching like it's 2002 (maybe a 5% chance of this happening).

    Aside from throwing a metric ton's worth of pennies into a wishing well, I don't think there's anything they can do to actually make this happen.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

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    Re: City Beat Cover Story - Reds: Relief in Sight?

    I think it's an interesting point, as appealing as it is to want to blow things up. For want of three relievers, you'll start over, but that means you'll have to find two outfielders, a catcher, and probably at least one infielder, who you'll hope will be at least as good in five years as the ones you have now, plus by then you'll be needing new starting pitchers. That's not counting the loss in return you'll have because not every deal pans out no matter who you are. And you'll still need to replace those three relievers.

    I can see the argument for upgrading the bullpen enough to bring home the good outings that Harang, Arroyo, Belisle, Lohse and Bailey do manage to produce. Then you can upgrade the starters a little, and the offense a little, and pretty you soon you're gaining ground.

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    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: City Beat Cover Story - Reds: Relief in Sight?

    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    I can see the argument for upgrading the bullpen enough to bring home the good outings that Harang, Arroyo, Belisle, Lohse and Bailey do manage to produce. Then you can upgrade the starters a little, and the offense a little, and pretty you soon you're gaining ground.
    How do you make those upgrades, though? Not through free agency -- the Reds won't be in the market for anyone with real talent. Through trades? The Reds aren't deep at any position, so any player you trade leaves a big hole to fill.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful


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