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Thread: Hafner gets an extension

  1. #1
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Hafner gets an extension

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2933522

    He is hitting .262 with 14HR and 57 RBIs with an 849 OPS this year.

    Seems a bit risky with his age(30).
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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  3. #2
    Member NJReds's Avatar
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    Re: Hafner gets an extension

    Four years - $57 million. That sets a reasonable market price for Dunn. Although Dunn is 2 years younger, and has been much more durable than Hafner. Hafner OPS'd at over 1.000 the previous two seasons. A good second half and he'll be right there again.

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    Re: Hafner gets an extension

    I would sign Dunn to a 4-year, $57 MM contract.
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    Re: Hafner gets an extension

    Anyone notice how free agency has almost gone away. No one gets there anymore. The list of good choices this year is really short as it was last year.
    Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
    I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.

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    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Hafner gets an extension

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    I would sign Dunn to a 4-year, $57 MM contract.
    That would be a steal, IMO.

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    Re: Hafner gets an extension

    It's just a little more than the extension David Ortiz(4/$52M)signed at almost exactly the same age Hafner is now.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

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    Re: Hafner gets an extension

    Quote Originally Posted by blumj View Post
    It's just a little more than the extension David Ortiz(4/$52M)signed at almost exactly the same age Hafner is now.
    The Ortiz deal was the hitters equivalent of the Harang extension in terms of a real steal.
    Last edited by Benihana; 07-12-2007 at 10:23 AM.
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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Hafner gets an extension

    As productive as Dunn has been, he's been nowhere close to the level of offensive performance as Hafner. Dunn is 3 years younger, but this sets a very reasonable precedent. Hard to believe ARod might make twice as much as Hafner.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Member paulrichjr's Avatar
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    Re: Hafner gets an extension

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    As productive as Dunn has been, he's been nowhere close to the level of offensive performance as Hafner. Dunn is 3 years younger, but this sets a very reasonable precedent. Hard to believe ARod might make twice as much as Hafner.

    Actually A-Rod's name makes him more valuable. If they both had the exact same stats, A-Rod would still make more money because of his marketability. I have to be honest...I would be willing to pay more to see A-Rod play than Hafner even though I really love the Indians and they are my second favorite team.
    Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
    I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.

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    Re: Hafner gets an extension

    Quote Originally Posted by paulrichjr View Post
    Actually A-Rod's name makes him more valuable. If they both had the exact same stats, A-Rod would still make more money because of his marketability. I have to be honest...I would be willing to pay more to see A-Rod play than Hafner even though I really love the Indians and they are my second favorite team.
    yes, but would you pay twice as much?
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    Member paulrichjr's Avatar
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    Re: Hafner gets an extension

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    yes, but would you pay twice as much?
    Nope
    Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
    I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Hafner gets an extension

    Quote Originally Posted by NJReds View Post
    Four years - $57 million. That sets a reasonable market price for Dunn. Although Dunn is 2 years younger, and has been much more durable than Hafner. Hafner OPS'd at over 1.000 the previous two seasons. A good second half and he'll be right there again.
    Dunn had better hope that Hafner isn't used as a comp for him should he end up in the FA market. The Indians are getting a great deal on paper.

    First, over the last three and a half seasons, Hafner has been in a different class of offensive player than Dunn. From 2004 through the '07 ASB, Hafner has VORPs totaling 232 compared to Dunn's VORP total of 145. That's a difference of roughly 9 wins or 2 wins a season. This shouldn't be interpreted as suggesting Dunn hasn't been productive. He has been productive (and for the most part he's been a true bargain while under contract with the Reds last season's killer slump notwithstanding). It's just that Hafner has given the Indians a much greater advantage relative to the league than Dunn has given the Reds.

    Second, what the players are projected to do as they move forward is a key part of a comp. This will fudge a little by 1) ignoring defense since Hafner doesn't play defense and it's possible that Dunn wouldn't either and 2) by only comparing the two players through 2011 since BP only projects 4 years beyond the current season. Really, even though Hafner's extension covers '09-'12, examining the two as if it spanned '08-'11 really doesn't effect the conclusion.

    Using VORP again, Hafner is projected by Pecota to be significantly more valuable over the next four years-to the tune of almost 5 wins.

    Dunn projected VORP
    2008: 42
    2009: 40
    2010: 31
    2011: 27
    Total: 140

    Hafner projected VORP
    2008: 59.4
    2009: 53.1
    2010: 39.5
    2011: 37.7
    Total: 190

    Hafner's deal was for 4 years and $57M which works out to roughly $3M per win ($57M/19 wins).

    If Hafner was the comp for determining Dunn's salary, Dunn would theoretically expect to get $10.5M a season (he's projected to be a 3.5 win/season bat) provided the team he signs on with utilizes him as a DH (playing a significant amount of time in left field would decrease Dunn's value).

    None of this is meant to be a slam on Dunn. Really what it suggests is that Cleveland got an excellent deal with Hafner's extension. In reality it's likely that free agent bats such as Dunn should probably be expected to get roughly $4M per win on the open market this off season. While VORP is not destiny, on paper, Cleveland made a smart move and it's one that would be difficult to criticize even if Hafner some how falls off a cliff. To put it into perspective, it would be like the Reds getting Dunn for $42M through 2011 (a discounted price over the theoretical market value of $56M Dunn might command as a free agent-it's kind of like buy three years and get one free).
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Hafner gets an extension

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Really what it suggests is that Cleveland got an excellent deal with Hafner's extension.
    Only if the projections are correct. Hafner's production has fallen off considerably in the first half of 2007.

    Is his 2007 performance simply a short term blip?

    Will his 2008 and beyond performance look similar to the 27-29 year old Hafner?

    How big of a risk does his first half performance make the projections for 2008-2012?
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    Member NJReds's Avatar
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    Re: Hafner gets an extension

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    Only if the projections are correct. Hafner's production has fallen off considerably in the first half of 2007.

    Is his 2007 performance simply a short term blip?

    Will his 2008 and beyond performance look similar to the 27-29 year old Hafner?

    How big of a risk does his first half performance make the projections for 2008-2012?
    The Reds need to make the same determination with Dunn. It's a risky business, especially for teams with small payrolls.

  16. #15
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Hafner gets an extension

    Jojo, isn't the projected VORP determined prior to the season? I would think if Dunn has a bounce-back season and it certainly appears he will, that his projected VORP for 2008 and beyond will be higher.


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