Current record: 36-52.....pace: 66-96
-4.5 games below 1st order pythag...40.5-47.6...pace: 75-87
-7.0 games below 2nd order pythag...43-45...pace: 79-83
-5.2 games below 3rd order pythag...41.2-46.8...pace: 76-86
In summary, this team is not as bad as their record suggests. They are about what we expected them to be. In fact, they are probably better than my pre-season prediction of 74-88, but I knew the pythag would get back at them for their luck last year and they would play a tad below it. I just didn't expect them to possibly play this far below it. For all the gnashing of teeth this year, they are about what many of us expected, including many that are the most vocal. I guess I could live with a season like this had Krivsky not gone out and filled the roster with retreads Chad Moeller, Mike Stanton, Rheal Cormier, Juan Castro, etc.
The only other teams that have been as "unlucky" as the Reds are:
1. Yankees (-7.3, -6.4, -7.6).....Can they catch up? Catching the Indians (9 back) for the WC is their only shot, IMO.
2. Orioles (-4.1, -6.4, -7.6)...Put this team in the NL Central, remove their bad luck, and they'd probably be buyers at the deadline.
3. Reds (-4.5, -7.0, -5.2)....A lot closer to a .500 team than most realize. If they kept their team intact (which I don't think they should do), I almost guarantee they would play above .500 the rest of the way.
4. Giants (-5.3, -4.0, -5.2)...Old team is better than record suggests, but it really doesn't matter. Bonds is the only story.
5. Athletics (-2.5, -5.3, -4.8)....Tough luck A's are the best in divison according to 2nd order and 3rd order. Need some typical A's 2nd half magic as they are 9 games back of the Angels with little hope of a WC.
6. Cubs (-2.4, -3.9, -2.8)....I'll say it right now. I'm taking the Indians to beat the Mets or the Cubs to win it all in the WS.
For the 2nd half, I predict the Cubs catch the Brewers and win the Central, with LA, and NYM winning their respective divisions and SD getting the WC. In the AL, I think Boston, Detroit, and Anaheim are division winners (I know, nice limb I've gone out on) and Cleveland will win the WC.
I'll stick with my pre-season prediction of Indians over the Mets in 6 for the World Series, although I must say the Cubs intrigue me. Not much said about them and I'm just getting the vibe.