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Thread: Reds and Twins dealing again???

  1. #46
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds and Twins dealing again???

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    That said, the FO might be envisioning Bruce in GABP next year in which case there are 3 spots for 4 outfielders. They may feel it a priority to get rid of one of their expensive outfielders. If the market is soft for both Jr and Dunn (i.e. just because we fans think the Twins would be lucky to get Dunn for no less than Liriano and Slowey doesn't mean that's the reality Krisky is dealing with), Dunn is the easiest to cut ties with and they are essentially guaranteed no worse than two compensatory picks (which are really pretty valuable). It's possible the only reason Dunn is still a Red is because so far two compensatory picks beats the best offer Krivsky has had.
    What exactly does "easiest to cut ties" with mean?

    Does it mean easiest to find a buyer or does it mean more expendable?

    I have to say that if I'm the Reds Griffey is the guy I feel an urgency to move. He's having a wonderful year and I'm glad the fans here got to see at least some glimpse of the great player that he was (at least at the plate) but his future is all in the past as they say. There is still the very real possibility that his next step on a baseball field will be his last, he's owed $12.5 Million for 2008 plus a $4 Million buyout. His value is as high as its ever been as a Red and the organization is lucky that there may actually be a market for him. He's going to be gone after 2008 in any event and won't be around as a piece to build on. I say move him now.

    Dunn OTOH is 27 and just coming into his prime. I know that many say that he is too big to last into his 30's but even a 5 year deal would end when he is 32 and I don't think its a huge risk. As the team moves forward there needs to be some reliable basis of production to use as a foundation to build upon and for all his faults Adam Dunn creates offense. Bruce, Votto, Hamilton may all be great, but we really don't know about them. Dunn has a track record of creating runs at the major league level year after year and over the last 5 years even Griffey can't match it.

    I say trade Griffey and the stop gap types like Hatte, Conine, Lohse, Stanton etc and sign Dunn. There is plenty of money to address the teams needs coming off the books this year. This is especially true if at least some of those needs can be addressed through acquiring some young cheap players in the purge.
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  3. #47
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    Re: Reds and Twins dealing again???

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Dunn OTOH is 27 and just coming into his prime. I know that many say that he is too big to last into his 30's but even a 5 year deal would end when he is 32 and I don't think its a huge risk. As the team moves forward there needs to be some reliable basis of production to use as a foundation to build upon and for all his faults Adam Dunn creates offense. Bruce, Votto, Hamilton may all be great, but we really don't know about them. Dunn has a track record of creating runs at the major league level year after year and over the last 5 years even Griffey can't match it.

    I say trade Griffey and the stop gap types like Hatte, Conine, Lohse, Stanton etc and sign Dunn. There is plenty of money to address the teams needs coming off the books this year. This is especially true if at least some of those needs can be addressed through acquiring some young cheap players in the purge.

    This makes too much sense. I completely agree. Sadly, it is not what I expect.

  4. #48
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Reds and Twins dealing again???

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    What exactly does "easiest to cut ties" with mean?

    Does it mean easiest to find a buyer or does it mean more expendable?
    I meant purely from a contractual point of view-especially if the Reds find the trade market softer than what they feel is doable. If they decline Dunn's option then he's gone. Jr's contract is guaranteed, as you pointed out, through '08.

    BTW, I also agree Dunn is a better risk in '08 than Jr.

    Dunn OTOH is 27 and just coming into his prime. I know that many say that he is too big to last into his 30's but even a 5 year deal would end when he is 32 and I don't think its a huge risk. As the team moves forward there needs to be some reliable basis of production to use as a foundation to build upon and for all his faults Adam Dunn creates offense. Bruce, Votto, Hamilton may all be great, but we really don't know about them. Dunn has a track record of creating runs at the major league level year after year and over the last 5 years even Griffey can't match it.
    Dunn's offensive production has basically already peaked. Right now the only question is how long will he maintain the plateau until his bat begins to decline. For what it's worth, Pecota suggests he probably starts to decline sometime around '09. Personally, I wouldn't offer Dunn anywhere near a 5 year deal now that he's going to be paid the market rate.
    Last edited by jojo; 07-15-2007 at 07:34 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Reds and Twins dealing again???

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post



    Dunn's offensive production has basically already peaked. Right now the only question is how long will he maintain the plateau until his bat begins to decline. For what it's worth, Pecota suggests he probably starts to decline sometime around '09. Personally, I wouldn't offer Dunn anywhere near a 5 year deal now that he's going to be paid the market rate.
    Why would there be a decline? He should at least stay the same over the next 5 years if not improve with some protection in the lineup. We are not talking about someone in their early 30's or some who plays so hard running into walls and diving after balls or even burning it up down the line to beat out a ground ball.

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Reds and Twins dealing again???

    Quote Originally Posted by Redmachine2003 View Post
    Why would there be a decline? He should at least stay the same over the next 5 years if not improve with some protection in the lineup. We are not talking about someone in their early 30's or some who plays so hard running into walls and diving after balls or even burning it up down the line to beat out a ground ball.
    Take a look at some of his comparibles to see why Pecota might see what it thinks might be Dunn's future...

    Basically the cliff notes version is that Dunn is the classic three outcomes guy (HR,BB, SO) a prototype that unfortunately has not aged well historically. He's three seasons past his best season and despite having a resurgence compared to the final few months of his '06, he's really in danger of having a second straight season with a sub-.900 OPS.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  7. #51
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    Re: Reds and Twins dealing again???

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    I could see the Reds trading EE.
    He's a cheap bat for a team that might be in contention but also on a budget -- teams that are usually priced out of midseason aquisitions by the money owed to players being traded about. You can possibly extract young talent from a team that otherwise hordes it with a guy like EE.

    I can't say I'd mind if the return was good -- I've been less than impressed with what Encarnacion has done this year.
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    Re: Reds and Twins dealing again???

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Take a look at some of his comparibles to see why Pecota might see what it thinks might be Dunn's future...
    Dunn's Similarity Index is a "5" and there isn't a single Dunn comp player on his list that BP would consider to be "substantially comparable".

    In short, he's so unique historically that his comparables aren't.
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  9. #53
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: Reds and Twins dealing again???

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  10. #54
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Reds and Twins dealing again???

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Dunn's Similarity Index is a "5" and there isn't a single Dunn comp player on his list that BP would consider to be "substantially comparable".

    In short, he's so unique historically that his comparables aren't.
    Right, but that's also a reason Pecota has consistently been too optimistic with his projections.

    A much greater case can be made for decline with Dunn than for improvement/maintenance. This is especially so if projecting out 5 seasons.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #55
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    Re: Reds and Twins dealing again???

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Right, but that's also a reason Pecota has consistently been too optimistic with his projections.
    PECOTA isn't an "all or nothing" projection system. I'd also suggest that PECOTA hasn't been all that off base with Dunn's projections over the past couple of seasons:

    2005 PECOTA: .395 OBP/.562 SLG
    2005 ACTUAL: .387 OBP/.540 SLG

    2006 PECOTA: .393 OBP/.558 SLG
    2006 ACTUAL: .365 OBP/.490 SLG

    2007 PECOTA: .387 OBP/.565 SLG
    2007 ACTUAL: .358 OBP/.546 SLG

    PECOTA's mean can be used as a guide, but there are degrees of projection and variances are commonplace due to randomness (i.e. Dunn's BABIP in 2006). It's not like PECOTA has been screaming for a 1.200 OPS monster season out of Dunn over the past three years. Frankly, considering how historically unusual Dunn is, I'm flabbergasted that PECOTA gets anywhere near him that consistently.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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  12. #56
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    Re: Reds and Twins dealing again???

    I tend to agree with jojo on this one. It's true that Dunn has no real career comparables where PECOTA is concerned. But to me, Dunn's historically unique statistical profile is not because there aren't any players of his type; it's because of the exaggerated degree to which he is a certain type of player. And if I know that type of player tends to decline earlier and quicker than the norm?

    No, I don't *know* he's going to fall off a cliff. It's just worth considering when making the bet on his future -- specifically, "how many years down the road does it make sense to pay him like an All-Star."
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  13. #57
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Reds and Twins dealing again???

    Quote Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar View Post
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  14. #58
    Member Razor Shines's Avatar
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    Re: Reds and Twins dealing again???

    Quote Originally Posted by Marc D View Post
    Its been documented that Narrons double standard in dealing with EE had an adverse effect on the clubhouse. I wonder now that Narron is gone and we are still seeing the mysterious bouts of EE bench riding that maybe it was coming from a bit higher?

    Hopefully not and they are showcasing Freel and his versatility(hoping that no one notices his many glaring weaknesses). I really do feel giving up on EE at this point would be premature, not to mention potentially selling at a low point for him.
    Not trying to start anything, but I've been on vacation and hadn't seen this. Could you point me to where it's been documented?

  15. #59
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Reds and Twins dealing again???

    I'd suggest that Dunn is similar to Darrell Evans, except with a bit more power. Not sure what his power numbers would be if adjusted for era, though.
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

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