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Thread: Ichiro one ups Jr...

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Details about Ichiro's contract are trickling out...

    It's basically around $90M but he's allowed the Ms to defer approximately $25M of it to be paid out over 20 years after he retires. Basically that means the Ms are only on the hook for about $12M a season over Ichiro's next five years. Basically he's having an MVP type season so far and was willing to accept a paultry raise of $1M next season. Importantly, the deferred moola doesn't count against the payroll tax. Scott Boras would be having a heart attack right now.

    People inclined to believe Ichiro is difficult or not a leader/team player really should consider what a gift he gave the Ms considering the likely market for him if he would've become a free agent.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    It is really hard for me to see the gift in someone getting $90M guaranteed, whether they deferred or not. Greed is greed at that $ level.

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    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    It is really hard for me to see the gift in someone getting $90M guaranteed, whether they deferred or not. Greed is greed at that $ level.
    Is it really when it's market level? How many people on earth try to talk their work contracts down from what their peers are making?
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

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    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    It is really hard for me to see the gift in someone getting $90M guaranteed, whether they deferred or not. Greed is greed at that $ level.
    I'm waiting for an athlete to say "nah, I don't accept it. I'm not worth that. Give me less"

    The only way the market becomes more reasonable, is if Bud Selig and his stooges fix it....and of course the players association agrees with it


    Not going to happen.

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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    The most overrated MLB player of our generation has a .800+ OPS halfway into his age 33 season and he gets 90M bucks. If he finishes at an OPS above .800, it'll be the first time in three years and only the second time in his last five.

    35% of Suzuki's career walks have been of the Intentional variety. Because other teams are worried about him hitting singles. At this point in his career, the guy is basically Juan Pierre with better bat control and a better arm.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    The most overrated MLB player of our generation has a .800+ OPS halfway into his age 33 season and he gets 90M bucks. If he finishes at an OPS above .800, it'll be the first time in three years and only the second time in his last five.

    35% of Suzuki's career walks have been of the Intentional variety. Because other teams are worried about him hitting singles. At this point in his career, the guy is basically Juan Pierre with better bat control and a better arm.
    Ichiro's bat has roughly averaged 5 wins a year over replacement during the three seasons you reference (cumulative VORP=149.2; RC: 380) while he's been a plus defender (winning a GG each season he's been in the majors for what that's worth). Over that span, his bat alone has been worth 3 to 6 wins more than Dunn's (VORP=121; RC: 318) depending upon whether you want to consider VORP or RC while the gap in their worth grows significantly wider when their defensive abilities are included in the overall comparison.

    This season Ichiro is once again a plus defender in centerfield and has the sixth highest VORP in the majors (VORP: 44; RC:79) while currently playing for a $11M. He's a steal. Dunn BTW is having something of a resurgence year offensively with the 54th highest VORP in the majors (while being paid $10M) but once again is a bottom tier defender for his position (VORP: 24; RC: 56).

    It's pretty surprising for you of all people to suggest Ichiro and Pierre are similar players. They're not even close to being in the same class of player.

    While jokingly suggesting he wants to play more like Ichiro, there is very good reason for Dunn to wish that in reality. Ichiro is both a better offensive and defensive player-Dunn isn't even in Ichiro's class.
    Last edited by jojo; 07-19-2007 at 01:06 AM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Ichiro's bat has roughly averaged 5 wins a year over replacement during the three seasons you reference (cumulative VORP=149.2; RC: 380) while he's been a plus defender (winning a GG each season he's been in the majors for what that's worth). Over that span, his bat alone has been worth 3 to 6 wins more than Dunn's (VORP=121; RC: 318) depending upon whether you want to consider VORP or RC while the gap in their worth grows significantly wider when their defensive abilities are included in the overall comparison.

    This season Ichiro is once again a plus defender in centerfield and has the sixth highest VORP in the majors (VORP: 44; RC:79) while currently playing for a $11M. He's a steal. Dunn BTW is having something of resurgence year offensively with the 54th highest VORP in the majors (while being paid $10M) but once again is a bottom tier defender for his position (VORP: 24; RC: 56).

    It's pretty surprising for you of all people to suggest Ichiro and Pierre are similar players. They're not even close to being in the same class of player.

    While jokingly suggesting he wants to play more like Ichiro, there is very good reason for Dunn to wish that in reality. Ichiro is both a better offensive and defensive player-Dunn isn't even in Ichiro's class.
    Dunn not in Ichiro's class? What a joke. While obviously Ichiro is still much better than Pierre, Dunn is every bit the offensive player Ichiro is, and then some. To suggest otherwise is pure daftness--or homerism. I'm not sure which.

    Factor in age, and it's Dunn who's the tremendous bargain.
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 07-19-2007 at 12:47 AM.

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Dunn not in Ichiro's class? What a joke. While obviously Ichiro is still much better than Pierre, Dunn is every bit the offensive player Ichiro is, and then some. To suggest otherwise is pure daftness--or homerism. I'm not sure which.
    I laid out a pretty compelling argument that doesn't deserve to be dismissed as either daft or homerism IMHO.

    I guess Ichiro's OPS could be superficially used as an argument against him if you ignore the effect of environment (which you can't). As it happens, the Mariner's play 70% of their games in pitcher-friendly, low run scoring environments such as Seattle, Anaheim, Oakland, San Diego, Cleveland, Detroit etc. It's one of the most pitcher friendly schedules in the majors.

    Context is important.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I laid out a pretty compelling argument that doesn't deserve to be dismissed as either daft or homerism IMHO.
    You compared apples to oranges with Dunn and Ichiro. Ichiro is a BA-driven run scoring machine, and Dunn is a power-driven run production machine. That's not a compelling argument, it's a fallacious comparison. And I've got nothing against Ichiro, who's probably the finest leadoff hitter in the game today. But he and Dunn are completely different players, and all teams need some combination of the two to be successful.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Over that span, his bat alone has been worth 3 to 6 wins more than Dunn's (VORP=121; RC: 318) depending upon whether you want to consider VORP or RC while the gap in their worth grows significantly wider when their defensive abilities are included in the overall comparison.
    2004-2006:

    Suzuki: 360.7 RC
    Dunn: 347.6 RC

    Now let's equalize for Suzuki's advantage in PA:

    Suzuki: 360.7 RC
    Dunn: 384.8 RC

    Certainly, Suzuki has the defensive value edge, but the offensive edge is Dunn's. But the 27-year old run production machine is untenable at 15M per season while the 33-year old speed player gave the Mariners a "gift" by allowing them to give him an average of 18M per season from a contract that'll be paying him through 2032? No.

    I guess Ichiro's OPS could be superficially used as an argument against him if you ignore the effect of environment (which you can't). As it happens, the Mariner's play 70% of their games in pitcher-friendly, low run scoring environments such as Seattle, Anaheim, Oakland, San Diego, Cleveland, Detroit etc. It's one of the most pitcher friendly schedules in the majors.
    3-year splits:

    Home: .330 BA/.376 OBP/.433 SLG
    Away: .336 BA/.381 OBP/.438 SLG

    at ANA: .396 BA/.438 OBP/.500 SLG
    at OAK: .400 BA/.446 OBP/.467 SLG
    at DET: .300 BA/.319 OBP/.457 SLG
    at CLE: .340 BA/.411 OBP/.560 SLG

    Apparently, Suzuki doesn't believe he's hurt by those ballparks any more than I do. Suzuki's game is ground ball bat control dink-and-dunk run real fast. The guy hits twice as many ground balls as other BIP types. That kind of game is as ballpark neutral as it gets. And it's a fun style to watch. That being said, when his legs start to go and the bat starts to slow look out. Poof goes the batting average. Away go the intentional walks. When will that happen? I dunno, but I'd suggest it'll be before he's 38 years old.
    Last edited by SteelSD; 07-19-2007 at 10:26 AM.
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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    That being said, when his legs start to go and the bat starts to slow look out. Poof goes the batting average. Away go the intentional walks. When will that happen? I dunno, but I'd suggest it'll be before he's 38 years old.
    Ichiro's one of my favorite players but I had the same thought, "who wants to pay a guy in his late 30's with a leg driven game?
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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    2004-2006:

    Suzuki: 360.7 RC
    Dunn: 347.6 RC

    Now let's equalize for Suzuki's advantage in PA:

    Suzuki: 360.7 RC
    Dunn: 384.8 RC

    Certainly, Suzuki has the defensive value edge, but the offensive edge is Dunn's. But the 27-year old run production machine is untenable at 15M per season while the 33-year old speed player gave the Mariners a "gift" by allowing them to give him an average of 18M per season from a contract that'll be paying him through 2032? No.
    You make an excellent point about the unequal PA-thanks for pointing out that I failed to account for it in my original post.

    That said, IMHO, THT's RC value is superior to the ones you used because THT uses the most recent RC formula and normalizes for team context, environment and situational hitting. Thus the THT values are a truer apples to apples comparison.

    So here's a comparison between Ichiro and Dunn equalized for PA (2004-2006):
    Ichiro: 380;
    Dunn: 352;

    So even with PA's equalized, Ichiro's bat was a win/year more productive than Dunn's which is consistent with the VORP-based conclusion that Ichiro's bat has been roughly three wins more valuable to the Ms relative to replacement than Dunn's has been for the Reds during that period.

    When you then consider their overall values by factoring in their defensive abilities, Ichiro has conservatively been at least two wins/year better than Dunn over than span. And thats a conservative estimate. The gap in their relative worth is going to widen even more now that Ichiro is playing a premium defensive position (and he's playing it very well defensively).

    Is Ichiro worth $3M/year more than Dunn? Absolutely.

    Concerning the question as to whether the 27-year old run production machine is untenable at 15M per season while the 33-year old speed player gave the Mariners a "gift" by allowing them to give him an average of 18M per season from a contract that'll be paying him through 2032....

    I think it's obvious that both Dunn and Ichiro are players with unique skill sets, i.e. ones in which building a list of comparables would be difficult. That said Pecota has captured Dunn pretty accurately (albeit it's weighted mean tends to be high for him). While there is some cause for pause concerning their projection for him thru 2011, Pecota's projections shouldn't be simply cast away off hand given that they've captured him to this point. However, Pecota's weighted mean for Ichiro has missed the mark so consistently and so grossly that it's reasonable to ignore what Pecota has to say about his future. If you think Dunn is a sabr enigma, than Ichiro is a sabr nightmare.

    So which is going to age with more grace-the true three outcome guy or the freak of nature? I think with both, you can throw their ages out the window. In other words, there is reason to believe Dunn is an old 27 and Ichiro a young 33. At least the utter inability to model Ichiro to this point suggests it probably isn't appropriate to simply assume he's destined for a dramatic age-related decline-especially since the expected signs of age such models predict for 33 yo CFers can't be found anywhere in his game.
    Last edited by jojo; 07-19-2007 at 06:07 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Member kheidg-'s Avatar
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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    The most overrated MLB player of our generation has a .800+ OPS halfway into his age 33 season and he gets 90M bucks. If he finishes at an OPS above .800, it'll be the first time in three years and only the second time in his last five.

    35% of Suzuki's career walks have been of the Intentional variety. Because other teams are worried about him hitting singles. At this point in his career, the guy is basically Juan Pierre with better bat control and a better arm.
    I beg to differ. Year after year Ichiro provides gold glove quality defense, he rarely is injured, and is hands down the best leadoff hitter in the game (when he bats leadoff...). He can run and rarely strikes out. Also, very rarely gets caught stealing. He is playing really well again this year, last 2 seasons were sub-par for Ichiro and he still hit over .300. Granted I love the OPS stat as much as anyone -- but this isn't baseball simulator where you plug in people with great OPS and they all perform.

    2007
    avg = .354 (2nd AL)
    runs = 64 (8th AL)
    hits = 135 (1st AL)
    sb = 25 (3rd AL) = only 2 CS
    obp = .406 (9th AL)

    2006
    avg = .322 (6th)
    runs = 110 (3rd AL)
    hits = 224 (1st AL)
    sb = 45 (3rd AL) = only 2 CS
    obp = .370 (16th)

    And you compare him to of all people Juan Pierre? How many times has Juan hit .300 or, better yet, how many times has Ichiro not hit .300?

    Pierre has never OPS'd over .800 -- even when he played in Colorado.

    Ichiro has several times and his career line is .331/.376/.438/.814

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    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    This is common practice and has been a regular part of contract signings in the NBA and MLB for over 40 years. My ex-brother-in-law was a CPA for Arthur Andersen and one of his accounts was the TrailBlazers during the mid-70's. He's now CFO for UPS in Atlanta. Sidney Wicks, for example, had the same exact contract done, but was for much less money.

    You just never read about it because it's personal, between a CPA, the client, and the team. Deferred money, often 10-20 years out has usually been put into many a contract, but the contract "numbers" are different for what the "public" sees.

    Once a contract has been signed under the terms that fit the "sports" requirements, it's rewritten to benefit the team and the player by stretching it out over years. It benefits the team because they can invest money into some other area that pays an grows with interest, and as that money builds, use it to pay the player down the road. The player gets more money as he's taxed less because he's receiving a smaller amount each year than one lump sum.

    This is standard practice for sports contracts. It's just none of our business and you never read about it because it isn't any of our business.
    Last edited by Eric_Davis; 07-19-2007 at 04:57 AM.
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    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post


    This is standard practice for sports contracts. It's just none of our business and you never read about it because it isn't any of our business.
    Bravo!

    Nor should it be any of our business unless these teams are publicly owned (GB Packers?). As fans, we think we should have a lot of "rights" that we really do not have. Contracts and injuries are things that really do not need to be discussed with the general public.

    One caveat to that rule that every team really needs to pay attention to is communication with the fans. A fan base can be quickly alienated by a team that will not communicate to it's fans. So, it's really kind of a tight rope that management needs to walk in divulging these sorts of things.


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