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Thread: Ichiro one ups Jr...

  1. #16
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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I don't get the apparent bashing. As free agent contracts go, this one is pretty fair.
    I don't get it, either. The Mariners need Ichiro a lot more than Ichiro needs the Mariners, he could really have held them up. It's not just about how much he's worth on the field, they'd have lost revenue if he'd left. Probably a lot.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

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  3. #17
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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by registerthis View Post
    You compared apples to oranges with Dunn and Ichiro. Ichiro is a BA-driven run scoring machine, and Dunn is a power-driven run production machine. That's not a compelling argument, it's a fallacious comparison.
    Actually it's not a fallacious comparison. VORP and RC basically make it an apples to apples comparison when considering the worth of their bats relative to wins. Not only has Ichiro's bat simply been much more productive than Dunn's (i.e. considering RC) but Ichiro's bat has given the Ms a bigger advantage relative to the league than Dunn's has given the Reds.

    Whether you mean to or not, you're basically arguing that it's impossible to compare players with any type of certainty. I'm not sure how personnel decisions could be reliably made with such a view.

    Besides, I think everyone could probably agree that with both Dunn and Ichiro the molds were broken.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  4. #18
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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Over that span, his bat alone has been worth 3 to 6 wins more than Dunn's (VORP=121; RC: 318) depending upon whether you want to consider VORP or RC while the gap in their worth grows significantly wider when their defensive abilities are included in the overall comparison.
    2004-2006:

    Suzuki: 360.7 RC
    Dunn: 347.6 RC

    Now let's equalize for Suzuki's advantage in PA:

    Suzuki: 360.7 RC
    Dunn: 384.8 RC

    Certainly, Suzuki has the defensive value edge, but the offensive edge is Dunn's. But the 27-year old run production machine is untenable at 15M per season while the 33-year old speed player gave the Mariners a "gift" by allowing them to give him an average of 18M per season from a contract that'll be paying him through 2032? No.

    I guess Ichiro's OPS could be superficially used as an argument against him if you ignore the effect of environment (which you can't). As it happens, the Mariner's play 70% of their games in pitcher-friendly, low run scoring environments such as Seattle, Anaheim, Oakland, San Diego, Cleveland, Detroit etc. It's one of the most pitcher friendly schedules in the majors.
    3-year splits:

    Home: .330 BA/.376 OBP/.433 SLG
    Away: .336 BA/.381 OBP/.438 SLG

    at ANA: .396 BA/.438 OBP/.500 SLG
    at OAK: .400 BA/.446 OBP/.467 SLG
    at DET: .300 BA/.319 OBP/.457 SLG
    at CLE: .340 BA/.411 OBP/.560 SLG

    Apparently, Suzuki doesn't believe he's hurt by those ballparks any more than I do. Suzuki's game is ground ball bat control dink-and-dunk run real fast. The guy hits twice as many ground balls as other BIP types. That kind of game is as ballpark neutral as it gets. And it's a fun style to watch. That being said, when his legs start to go and the bat starts to slow look out. Poof goes the batting average. Away go the intentional walks. When will that happen? I dunno, but I'd suggest it'll be before he's 38 years old.
    Last edited by SteelSD; 07-19-2007 at 11:26 AM.
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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Actually it's not a fallacious comparison. VORP and RC basically make it an apples to apples comparison when considering the worth of their bats relative to wins. Not only has Ichiro's bat simply been much more productive than Dunn's (i.e. considering RC) but Ichiro's bat has given the Ms a bigger advantage relative to the league than Dunn's has given the Reds.

    Whether you mean to or not, you're basically arguing that it's impossible to compare players with any type of certainty. I'm not sure how personnel decisions could be reliably made with such a view.

    Besides, I think everyone could probably agree that with both Dunn and Ichiro the molds were broken.
    You can't use VORP in a direct comparison between two players at different positions.

    Yes, Ichiro is a "better" CF than Dunn is a LF, but it IS an apples to oranges comparison.

    RC is a stat you CAN use however, and yes, this season Ichiro's created more runs; but I'm not sure how you can just stop at RC and declare Ichiro the better offensive player?

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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    You can't use VORP in a direct comparison between two players at different positions.

    Yes, Ichiro is a "better" CF than Dunn is a LF, but it IS an apples to oranges comparison.
    Yep.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  7. #21
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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by registerthis View Post
    Yeah, but it's not a "gift".
    That was my point as well. I certainly understand the idea of market prices, but that doesn't make it less greedy. The players are greedy, the owners are greedy, the TV networks are greedy, MLB is greedy, and we just keep on buying the product. That is why trying to add an element of altruism to the "hometown discount" idea is a bit repugnant to some.

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    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post


    This is standard practice for sports contracts. It's just none of our business and you never read about it because it isn't any of our business.
    Bravo!

    Nor should it be any of our business unless these teams are publicly owned (GB Packers?). As fans, we think we should have a lot of "rights" that we really do not have. Contracts and injuries are things that really do not need to be discussed with the general public.

    One caveat to that rule that every team really needs to pay attention to is communication with the fans. A fan base can be quickly alienated by a team that will not communicate to it's fans. So, it's really kind of a tight rope that management needs to walk in divulging these sorts of things.

  9. #23
    Passion for the game Team Clark's Avatar
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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Just wanted to let everyone who has contributed to this post that I personally think this is one of the best posts I have ever read on Redszone.

    I have learned a lot in this post and it has really spurred some comparative thinking on my end. Thanks!
    It's absolutely pathetic that people can't have an opinion from actually watching games and supplementing that with stats. If you voice an opinion that doesn't fit into a black/white box you will get completely misrepresented and basically called a tobacco chewing traditionalist...
    Cedric 3/24/08

  10. #24
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    It is really hard for me to see the gift in someone getting $90M guaranteed, whether they deferred or not. Greed is greed at that $ level.
    I'm waiting for an athlete to say "nah, I don't accept it. I'm not worth that. Give me less"

    The only way the market becomes more reasonable, is if Bud Selig and his stooges fix it....and of course the players association agrees with it


    Not going to happen.

  11. #25
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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    You can't use VORP in a direct comparison between two players at different positions.

    Yes, Ichiro is a "better" CF than Dunn is a LF, but it IS an apples to oranges comparison.

    RC is a stat you CAN use however, and yes, this season Ichiro's created more runs; but I'm not sure how you can just stop at RC and declare Ichiro the better offensive player?
    Yes you can. One of the more attractive aspects of VORP is that it allows comparison between positions.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    That being said, when his legs start to go and the bat starts to slow look out. Poof goes the batting average. Away go the intentional walks. When will that happen? I dunno, but I'd suggest it'll be before he's 38 years old.
    Ichiro's one of my favorite players but I had the same thought, "who wants to pay a guy in his late 30's with a leg driven game?
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  13. #27
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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    2004-2006:

    Suzuki: 360.7 RC
    Dunn: 347.6 RC

    Now let's equalize for Suzuki's advantage in PA:

    Suzuki: 360.7 RC
    Dunn: 384.8 RC

    Certainly, Suzuki has the defensive value edge, but the offensive edge is Dunn's. But the 27-year old run production machine is untenable at 15M per season while the 33-year old speed player gave the Mariners a "gift" by allowing them to give him an average of 18M per season from a contract that'll be paying him through 2032? No.
    You make an excellent point about the unequal PA-thanks for pointing out that I failed to account for it in my original post.

    That said, IMHO, THT's RC value is superior to the ones you used because THT uses the most recent RC formula and normalizes for team context, environment and situational hitting. Thus the THT values are a truer apples to apples comparison.

    So here's a comparison between Ichiro and Dunn equalized for PA (2004-2006):
    Ichiro: 380;
    Dunn: 352;

    So even with PA's equalized, Ichiro's bat was a win/year more productive than Dunn's which is consistent with the VORP-based conclusion that Ichiro's bat has been roughly three wins more valuable to the Ms relative to replacement than Dunn's has been for the Reds during that period.

    When you then consider their overall values by factoring in their defensive abilities, Ichiro has conservatively been at least two wins/year better than Dunn over than span. And thats a conservative estimate. The gap in their relative worth is going to widen even more now that Ichiro is playing a premium defensive position (and he's playing it very well defensively).

    Is Ichiro worth $3M/year more than Dunn? Absolutely.

    Concerning the question as to whether the 27-year old run production machine is untenable at 15M per season while the 33-year old speed player gave the Mariners a "gift" by allowing them to give him an average of 18M per season from a contract that'll be paying him through 2032....

    I think it's obvious that both Dunn and Ichiro are players with unique skill sets, i.e. ones in which building a list of comparables would be difficult. That said Pecota has captured Dunn pretty accurately (albeit it's weighted mean tends to be high for him). While there is some cause for pause concerning their projection for him thru 2011, Pecota's projections shouldn't be simply cast away off hand given that they've captured him to this point. However, Pecota's weighted mean for Ichiro has missed the mark so consistently and so grossly that it's reasonable to ignore what Pecota has to say about his future. If you think Dunn is a sabr enigma, than Ichiro is a sabr nightmare.

    So which is going to age with more grace-the true three outcome guy or the freak of nature? I think with both, you can throw their ages out the window. In other words, there is reason to believe Dunn is an old 27 and Ichiro a young 33. At least the utter inability to model Ichiro to this point suggests it probably isn't appropriate to simply assume he's destined for a dramatic age-related decline-especially since the expected signs of age such models predict for 33 yo CFers can't be found anywhere in his game.
    Last edited by jojo; 07-19-2007 at 07:07 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  14. #28
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Yes you can. One of the more attractive aspects of VORP is that it allows comparison between positions.
    Then perhaps I am misunderstanding this definition:

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/gl...hp?search=vorp

    VORP

    Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by registerthis View Post
    Then perhaps I am misunderstanding this definition:

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/gl...hp?search=vorp
    VORP absolutely is position dependent (i.e. a player's production will translate into a higher or lower VORP depending upon his position-i.e. the relative pool of players he's being compared too). That said, there is no reason that the advantage a player represents versus his pool can't be compared between players who play different positions. It's a real strength of the system because it in essence allows the offensive value of all players to be compared on an equal playing field so speak....
    Last edited by jojo; 07-19-2007 at 04:35 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Ichiro one ups Jr...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    VORP is position dependent (i.e. a player's production will translate into a higher or lower VORP depending upon his position-i.e. the relative pool of players he's being compared too). That said, there is no reason that the advantage a player represents versus his pool can't be compared between players who play different positions.
    So you're comfortable comparing VORPs of SS and LFs? You believe that their relative output translates in that fashion>


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