Prospect Profile: Drew Stubbs

[Patrick Bateman]

The most anticipated thread in Redszone history has arrived! A thread entirely devoted to Drew Stubbs. Enjoy.





Full Name: Andrew Robert Stubbs
Born: 10/04/1984
Birthplace: Texarkana, TX
College: U Texas Austin
Height: 6' 4"
Weight: 200
Bats: R
Throws: R


Scouting Report from brewersfan.net:

Stubbs was a third round pick of the Houston Astros in the 2003 draft. He turned down seven figures to attend the University of Texas, and he burst onto the scene immediately with an impressive season for the Longhorns on his way to being named a freshman All-American. His early success prompted him to be named to Team USA the summer after his freshman season, where he hit .319. He also played for Team USA during the summer of 2005. He continued to produced during his sophomore season, hitting .311 with 35 extra base hits and swiping 32 bags in 38 attempts. He is a true yet rare five-tool athlete that blends an exciting combination of power and speed. He makes plays look effortlessly in centerfield, and is a threat on the basepaths every time he reaches. He also has considerable power potential, with the wheels to stretch doubles into triples. In high school, he lettered in baseball, football, basketball and track. The one area he will need to improve in is his strike zone discipline. He has walked 60 times in his 549 collegiate at-bats, but he has also struck out an alarming 146 times. He has drawn comparisons to Rocco Baldelli and Jeff Franceour given his amazing natural talents and skills, and projects to go very high in the draft next June.

http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewAmateur...=498&draftId=4

[Patrick Bateman]

Prospect Q and A from Baseball America:

By David Laurila
March 22, 2007

When the Reds took Drew Stubbs with the eighth overall pick in the 2006 draft, they knew they were getting a player with a high ceiling. The 6-foot-4, 200-pound University of Texas product went into the draft rated as the best athlete, best defensive player, second-fastest base runner, and third-best power hitter among collegians. The question is whether that resume will translate into success at the big league level.

A righthanded-hitter, Stubbs showed some holes in his short-season debut, hitting only .252 while striking out 64 times in 210 at-bats. Scouts have voiced concerns about the length of his swing and his ability to handle breaking pitches. But no one doubts the 22-year-old's tools and makeup. If he can make the necessary adjustments and put everything together, Drew Stubbs should be roaming center field in Great American Ballpark within a few years.

Baseball America: Give us a scouting report on Drew Stubbs the baseball player.

Drew Stubbs: My game is based around speed, both offensively and defensively. I use my speed to be a force on defense, running down balls in the gaps. On offense, I'm a combination speed/power guy who can play small-ball if I have to.

BA: Give us a scouting report on Drew Stubbs the person.

DS: I look at myself as laid-back and genuine; a "What you see is what you get" kind of guy. I believe in putting the team ahead of personal success. I'm proud of what we were able to accomplish at Texas, winning a national championship and going to the finals the previous year.

BA: Scouting reports say that your swing is a little long. Do you agree with that?

DS: You know, I don't consider it to be long. Growing up, it's always been pretty compact in my opinion. I have struck out a bit too much, and I think my K totals influence that perception. People draw the conclusion that if you strike out a lot, your swing must be long. I don't think it is.

BA: Scouts also say you have trouble with breaking balls. Do you think that's pitch-recognition, or something else?

DS: I think that's any young hitter's problem. At the pro level you're seeing elite pitchers, and it''s a constant period of making adjustments. You see it in the big leagues when guys are in their first years. As you gain experience and get more repetitions, you should get better.

BA: Have your coaches asked you to make any mechanical adjustments?

DS: Only minor details with my swing. They want me to work on my load -- keeping my hands back and getting better separation to help me to track balls better.

BA: Three major components of hitting are your load, your hands, and your head. Which do you consider the most important?

DS: First and foremost is your head. The bottom line is that you need to keep your eyes on the ball. You don't want your head moving.

BA: You possess a good combination of speed and power. Are you more likely to hit 40 home runs or steal 40 bases?

DS: I'd say that…I think steal 40 bases. Consistent power is developed, but speed and an ability to steal bases comes earlier in your career. If I'm given an opportunity to run, I'll steal some bases.

BA: What is the strong suit of your running game?

DS: I'd say it's my explosiveness. The key to stealing bases is getting a good jump, and I work on that a lot. When I don't get a good jump, my speed can compensate for that. I have a long, rangy stride when I get going.

BA: You've been compared to a young Dale Murphy. What are your thoughts on that, and if you could be compared to anyone, who would it be?

DS: It's a great compliment, obviously. He was one of the best players of his era. But if I had to compare myself to someone, I'd say maybe Torii Hunter. He's a big, athletic outfielder who can change the game with his defense. That's the level I want to get to.

BA: How would you assess where your defensive game is right now? What are your strengths and weaknesses?

DS: I think I'm doing pretty well. Having played at Texas, I was able to take my game to the next level because of good coaching and the level of competition. I think my strengths are an ability to get good jumps and track down balls. Not everyone is blessed with my speed, and I feel fortunate that I possess it. There's always room for improvement, but overall I think I'm fundamentally sound.

BA: You were drafted out of high school by the Rangers and were offered a $900,000 contract as a third-round pick, but the commissioner's office influenced them not to sign you at that figure. In retrospect, was that a good thing or a bad thing?

DS: At the time, I was definitely looking forward to getting my pro career going. And I think I could have been ready to go. I could have held my own. That said, college really helped me, both on and off the field. Now that I have that experience I'm kind of glad it happened the way it did.

BA: You did very well academically at the University of Texas. Tell us about that.

DS: You see a lot of guys who are in college just to play sports, but I've always enjoyed learning. What you gain from an education really helps you as you go along in life. I guess I'm an intellectual. I have an open mind, and I like to think.

BA: I understand that you play the piano.

DS: Yes. I took eight or 10 years of lessons, and played a little classical and some more contemporary stuff. I don't have much of a chance to play now, though. I lack the time, plus I can't exactly bring the piano with me on the road.

BA: You've also enjoyed the intellectual exercise of bungee jumping.

DS: Yeah, I did that a few times when I was a little younger. It was something fun to do, but I probably won't be doing it again anytime soon. Still, it's really not that dangerous. It's not cliff diving or anything like that.

BA: Any final thoughts?

DS: Just that right now baseball is first and foremost in my life. It's what I've always wanted to do, and I'd like to play for a long time. I hope I never have to get a real job.


http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...es/263542.html

[Patrick Bateman]

MiLB Player Card:

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Drew%2520Stubbs&pos=OF&sid=milb&t=p_pb p&pid=453211


Current Season Stats:

Team  League  AVG  G   AB  R   H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  TB  BB SO SB CS  OBP  SLG  OPS 

DAY    MID   .257  87  335 62  86  17  2   8   26   131 53 97 20 12 .364 .391 .755

Split Stats:

Entire Season     AVG   G   AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS   OBP   SLG   OPS 

vs Left          .235      119  17  28   2   1   1    5  16  36   8   5 . 326  .294  .620 
vs Right         .269      216  45  58  15   1   7   21  37  61  12   7  .384  .444  .828 
Home Games       .296   48 186  36  55  14   2   8   18  27  50  13   4  .389  .522  .910 
Away Games       .208   39 149  26  31   3   0   0    8  26  47   7   8  .333  .228  .562 
Day Games        .316   15  57  13  18   2   0   2    3   5  13   3   3  .381  .456  .837 
Night Games      .245   72 278  49  68  15   2   6   23  48  84  17   9  .361  .378  .738 
On Grass         .257   87 335  62  86  17   2   8   26  53  97  20  12  .364  .391  .755 
April            .275   19  80  14  22   2   0   2   10   5  25   5   3  .322  .375  .697 
May              .272   32 114  27  31   8   0   4    9  23  32   6   4  .403  .447  .850 
June             .185   23  92   9  17   2   0   0    3  10  25   5   2  .272  .207  .478 
July             .327   13  49  12  16   5   2   2    4  15  15   4   3  .484  .633  1.117 
Pre All-Star     .253   65 249  47  63  11   0   6   21  34  73  14   9  .348  .369  .718 
Post All-Star    .267   22  86  15  23   6   2   2    5  19  24   6   3  .406  .453  .859 
Bases Empty      .278      212   6  59  12   2   6    6  28  61   0   0  .368  .439  .806 
Runners On       .220      123  56  27   5   0   2   20  25  36  20  12  .358  .309  .667 
Scoring Position .197       76  52  15   1   0   0   16  16  23   5   1  .340  .211  .551

Last 10 games:

Date   OPP    AVG  AB  R  H   2B   3B HR   RBI    BB   SO   SB  CS 

Jul 05 GLL   .000  3   4  0   0    0  0     0     3    0    2   0 
Jul 06 GLL   .400  5   1  2   1    0  0     0     0    1    0   0 
Jul 07 @SOU  .333  3   1  1   0    0  0     0     1    0    0   1 
Jul 09 @SOU  .000  4   0  0   0    0  0     0     1    2    0   0 
Jul 13 CLI   .250  4   2  1   1    0  0     0     1    1    0   0 
Jul 14 CLI   .333  3   1  1   0    0  1     1     2    1    0   0 
Jul 15 CLI   .500  4   0  2   0    0  0     0     0    1    0   1 
Jul 16 CLI   .333  3   0  1   1    0  0     0     1    1    0   0 
Jul 17 CED   .500  4   1  2   2    0  0     0     1    1    1   0 
Jul 17 CED   .000  4   1  2   2    0  0     0     1    1    1   0
Jul 18 CED   .500  4   1  2   0    1  1     1     0    2    0   0 

Totals       .324 37  11 12   5    1  2     2    10   10    3   2

[Patrick Bateman]

Some deeper stats on Stubbs:

Hit Chart:




Extended Stats:

Year Age  Team      PA    AB   ISOP   BB%    K%   BABIP  GB%  LD%  RC  RC/27  wOBA 
2007 22  A Dayton   390  331   .121  13.8% 24.4%  .336   45%  14%  46   4.8   .333

Extended Splits:

Split   PA  AB   ISOP  HR   BB%     K%   BABIP  GB%  LD%  AVG  OBP  SLG  wOBA 
April   87  80   .100  2   5.7%   28.7%  .377   53%   8% .275 .322 .375  .310 
May    139  114  .175  4   16.5%  23.0%  .346   44%  19% .272 .403 .447  .380 
June   104  92   .022  0   10.6%  24.0%  .254   45%  12% .185 .272 .207  .223 
July    60  45   .222  1   25.0%  21.7%  .419   35%  13% .311 .483 .533  .447 

AWAY   178  149  .020  0   15.2%  26.4%  .304   52%  11% .208 .333 .228  .272 
HOME   212  182  .204  7   12.7%  22.6%  .362   41%  16% .291 .387 .495  .384

http://firstinning.com/players/Drew-Stubbs-a/

[Patrick Bateman]

Article from when Stubbs was drafted:

Reds select Texas' Stubbs with first pick
Longhorns outfielder second position player taken in draft

By Mark Sheldon / MLB.com

ST. LOUIS -- A third-round draft pick of the Astros in 2003, a bizarre set of circumstances delayed Drew Stubbs' professional baseball career from starting right out of high school.
Ultimately, the dream proved worth waiting for a little longer.

Stubbs became a star center fielder for the University of Texas and won a National Championship with the Longhorns last year. On Tuesday, the junior became a first-rounder in the 2006 First-Year Player Draft when the Reds selected him with the eighth overall pick.

"I'm very excited. It's a huge honor to be in the position I'm in right now," said Stubbs, who batted .342 with 12 home runs, 58 RBIs and 26 steals while starting all 62 of Texas' games this season.

Stubbs, 21, was the second position player taken overall. Scouting reports said that the 6-foot-4, 200-pounder was an athletic five-tool player with great speed and power that complemented his Gold Glove-caliber defensive ability.

Baseball America rated Stubbs as the best college athlete and best defensive player in this year's draft and the second fastest baserunner and third-best power hitter.

"[He] as all the tools you look for, plays at a top-flight program," Reds scouting director Chris Buckley said from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. "We're thrilled to have him. For me, he was the best athlete in the draft, so we're excited to have him with the eighth pick."

"He's a top-flight center fielder, he's got all the skills," general manager Wayne Krivsky said. "We're just real pleased to get him. I trusted Chris and his staff to do the right thing, and pick the best player in each round."

A four-sport athlete in high school, Stubbs said he was also recruited to play college football but was most passionate about playing baseball.

"Baseball was always my first love, and that's what I wanted to continue to do," he said.



Complete coverage >A native of Atlanta, Texas, Stubbs had agreed to receive $900,000 from his home-state Astros in 2003. Considered an abnormally high bonus for a third-round pick, Major League Baseball pressured the club to lower the amount and the club's offer was eventually rescinded.

So, Stubbs went to college instead.

"I was excited to go to school, but at the same time disappointed I didn't get to start my pro career," Stubbs said. "Deep down all along, I wanted to go to school. I really wanted the chance to get the college experience. If the money was right for me and family, what I was asking for was there on the table, and I would have had to take it and start pro ball.

"When it all fell through and I realized I was going to college, I was happy about it deep down. I realized it was probably the best thing."

It should prove to be a lucrative move. Cincinnati's first-round pick in 2005, outfielder Jay Bruce, received a $1.8 million bonus out of high school as the 12th overall selection.

Stubbs watched the draft on a computer at his apartment with family and three teammates, including corner outfielder Carson Kainer -- who was later taken in the 14th round by Cincinnati. When Stubbs' name was announced, it was a little anti-climatic because his advisor had already phoned him with the news a half-hour earlier.

Speculation had the Reds taking Stubbs if he was available and the two sides had already opened negotiations before Tuesday.

"I think I've been in their target for a couple of months now," Stubbs said. "I was looking to go as high as possible, and eighth with Cincinnati is definitely a very good spot for me. I was excited before the draft started when I found out it was going to happen."

Talking to reporters on a conference call from Austin, Stubbs said he expected to sign quickly.

"The way we've been talking recently, we pretty much came to an agreement that I wouldn't be difficult to sign if I was drafted," he said. "I'm not sure how quick the actually signing will take place. When it comes to negotiations, I'm think all that's pretty much ironed out and I won't be a problem to sign at all."

"Hopefully, it'll happen quickly," Buckley said. "The sooner we can get him signed, the sooner he can start working with our people."

Over his three-year collegiate career, Stubbs batted .317 and was a two-time member of the USA Baseball national team. Patience at the plate is one area that will need developing as a professional -- he had 60 strikeouts, compared to 41 walks in 2006, and 205 strikeouts over a 204-game college career.

"There's some [concern]," said Buckley. "But, every person drafted before him, I could throw rocks at. There are not many slam dunks in this stuff."

Stubbs, who will be assigned to rookie level Billings once signed, felt professional at-bats would make him more consistent.

"I don't consider myself a guy that's one of those big power hitters that's either going to hit a home run or strikeout," Stubbs said. "I think I'm more of a balanced hitter that can hit for average. My development over the next few years will cure a lot of those problems and I'm looking forward to improving in every aspect of the game."

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...2006&fext=.jsp

[mth123]

Wow. Good work AK.

[Caveat Emperor]

Anyone want to theorize why his home/away split is so lopsided? I don't know much about park factors in low-A ball, but I imagine there's something worth investigating when he's hitting almost 100 points higher and OPS'ing close to 350 points higher at home vs. on the road.

[RedLegsToday]

I've always wondered if some players just get more pumped up playing in front of a large crowd. The Dragons play to 8000+ every game and then they go on the road and play to 1000+. Maybe Drew just needs the attention? :-)

[RedLegsToday]

Austin Kearns, how did you copy Drew's stats into those nice, neat tables?

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Nice work, AK.

[Jim]

Great post, Austin! I now know about 10x more about Stubbs than I did yesterday! I'm looking forward to seeing him in the Reds OF.

[Patrick Bateman]

Wow. Good work AK.

Much appreciated everyone!

Austin Kearns, how did you copy Drew's stats into those nice, neat tables?

I just used the stats from MiLB and copied them into note pad, and then organized them by how I wanted them to show up on the screen, and then put 'CODE' tags around them when I put the organized stats into Redszone.

[Patrick Bateman]

I found some interesting comentary about Stubbs in an interview done by Redleg Nation with Billings Mustangs General Manager Gary Roller:

RN: Let’s talk about Drew Stubbs. He seemed to struggle a little bit.

GR: He did.

RN: Any theories as to why?

GR: Talking to the coaching staff, defensively, they felt he could have played at a higher level even last year. He runs like the wind. He has tremendous instincts out in the outfield. He gets to everything. So, I think they felt defensively, he could have started higher than here. Offensively, they knew they were going to be challenged with him. They felt at Texas, a lot of his success came from the aluminum bat and they felt when he got here and you put the wood bat in his hand, he was going to struggle a little bit and he did. They were talking to him and they worked on some things in the fall and he made some strides in the Instructional League in the fall. They expect big things out of him, eventually. Whether that is going to be this year or next year, who knows? But they’re going to expect him to toe the line offensively at some point. I think it was an adjustment period for him offensively; defensively he was fine and one of the better players in the league defensively. But offensively, they found they could pound him inside with the hard stuff, and he struggled with it. And I think they worked on that all summer and I know they worked on that in the fall and hopefully he’s going to get that part ironed out because again, he’s a very quiet kid. He didn’t say much. But he’s a very nice kid, he’s very polite, very well mannered, he’s a professional. But you didn’t really know he was there.

RN: I would think that #1 draft pick thing kind of weighs heavily on you, then you begin to struggle a little bit and it becomes cyclical.

GR: Yeah, it does and I think you could see that at times with him that he was pressing and pushing. As much as they tried to tell him, “you know what, there is no pressure on you, Drew, just play the game the way you’ve always played the game and the numbers will take care of themselves”. As a human being, you can’t help but feel some of that pressure. And he pressed a little bit. Midway through the year, he got nicked a little bit, had a couple of injuries he had to deal with, then he had more of a major injury toward the end of the year that he had to deal with. All that thrown in there, he still, I would say and I think they (the Reds) would say, he had a successful year. Just when you put the label on someone as the #1 pick, you think that they’re Superman and you expect very high numbers out of some of these guys and they’re human like you and I are. And they have to go through everything like you and I do. On top of that the pressure of being the #1 pick. Sometimes it doesn’t always pan out, but I think Drew felt he had a successful year. Yeah, he would have liked his numbers to have been better. I know the Reds would have liked his numbers to have been better. But I think they’re very happy with him.

http://redlegnation.com/2007/02/16/r...ings-mustangs/

Also for reference sake here's his numbers from 2006:

Team League  AVG  G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  TB  BB  SO  SB  CS   OBP  SLG  OPS 

BIL    PIO  .252 56 210  39  53   7   3   6   24  84  32  64  19   4  .368 .400 .768

[Patrick Bateman]

Anyone want to theorize why his home/away split is so lopsided? I don't know much about park factors in low-A ball, but I imagine there's something worth investigating when he's hitting almost 100 points higher and OPS'ing close to 350 points higher at home vs. on the road.

Well Dayton is a hitters park. I don't currently have the numbers in front of me, but Dayton is definitely a hitters environment compared to the rest of the league.

However, the factors are not nearly that strong to make up for such a difference in his splits. I believe his numbers are inflated to a degree, but not to the point that his home/road splits would have you believe.

I'm guessing the main reason is just due to randomness.

[dougdirt]

Well Dayton is a hitters park. I don't currently have the numbers in front of me, but Dayton is definitely a hitters environment compared to the rest of the league.

However, the factors are not nearly that strong to make up for such a difference in his splits. I believe his numbers are inflated to a degree, but not to the point that his home/road splits would have you believe.

I'm guessing the main reason is just due to randomness.

Dayton is not playing to much of a hitter park outside of being favorable to the HR this year.

http://firstinning.com/pf/?type=basi...50&season=2007