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Thread: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

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    Member 15fan's Avatar
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    Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Angels and M's have a nice race going in the AL West. Both teams could use another bat, especially up the middle.

    Detroit & Cleveland also have a nice race going. Pair Phillips up the middle with Carlos Guillen, and slide Polanco over to the hot corner, and you're looking at a whole lot of offense in Detroit.

    Mets & Braves have a close race in the AL East. 2b hasn't done much for the Mets this year. An IF of Wright, Reyes, Phillips and Delgado puts NY in the drivers seat in the NL.

    Everyone except the Giants are still alive in the NL West. Giles hasn't given the Padres anything this year at 2b.

    What makes Phillips so appealing to trade is what makes him so appealing to keep: he's a bat and a MI glove who is also very cheap. That means he's attractive to every team out there.

    The question is whether anyone is willing to give up enough pitching to get him in the next 12 days.

    If the Reds are going to compete any time this decade, they need a whole lotta pitching. Phillips might be the organization's best shot to address that need in a substantive manner.

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Brandon Phillips is the kind of player you build around, not a player to trade just his second full season in the bigs.

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Brandon Phillips is the kind of player you build around, not a player to trade just his second full season in the bigs.

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    Member 15fan's Avatar
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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Exactly.

    That means that about 26 of the other 29 teams would be interested in acquiring a guy like Phillips. That makes it easier for the GM to go out and get a couple of teams in a bidding war.

    And when you're selling, a bidding war for what you've got is as good as it gets.

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by 15fan View Post
    What makes Phillips so appealing to trade is what makes him so appealing to keep: he's a bat and a MI glove who is also very cheap. That means he's attractive to every team out there.
    And those are the very reasons why he should be appealing to us. We have a solid, young ballplayer here who is cheap, fills a dire need, and we're saying it's time to sell him?

    What is the logic behind it? IMHO, you're not going to get anything substantial, as far as pitching for him - not when everyone else is pretty much out there looking for serviceable pitching (more then position players) - and you're just creating another "hole" on this team. I like BP at 2B, but he could also be a solid SS to.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    And those are the very reasons why he should be appealing to us. We have a solid, young ballplayer here who is cheap, fills a dire need, and we're saying it's time to sell him?

    What is the logic behind it? IMHO, you're not going to get anything substantial, as far as pitching for him - not when everyone else is pretty much out there looking for serviceable pitching (more then position players) - and you're just creating another "hole" on this team. I like BP at 2B, but he could also be a solid SS to.
    I don't know if I think we wouldn't get much, but I have to wonder when do we start allowing ourselves to have a player long term who helps us now and for the next 5-7 years? Otherwise, it's always just more rebuilding.

    I don't think anyone's untouchable, but we've got a decent core of players that can make for a decent team in the not too distant future.

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz View Post
    I don't know if I think we wouldn't get much, but I have to wonder when do we start allowing ourselves to have a player long term who helps us now and for the next 5-7 years? Otherwise, it's always just more rebuilding.
    Yep.

    I'm not saying the guy is untradeable or that I would refuse to listen to offers; but that I don't see the return much more then pitching prospects out of someone's farm system.

    The problem is finding that "match".... #1 - is the team that may be interested in BP have what we want? #2 - How bad do they feel they want him because it better be a high level prospect(s).

    If you were that team, would you trade away a Homer Bailey for a Brandon Phillips?

    I look at the tightness of this pitching market, and that teams are even reluctant to let high level prospects go. Even as "unprovens" they are like gold, and I think teams would be apprehensive about doing so for a Phillips. Maybe for the likes of a Dunn. And no...I'm not advocating trading Adam.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    If you were that team, would you trade away a Homer Bailey for a Brandon Phillips?
    depends. On a lot of things, actually.

    Am I competing this year? Is acquiring Phillips & putting him in my lineup going to separate me from the rest of my competition in the division / league? Are the stars aligning such that I've got a real shot at October glory?

    Most importantly, what else do I have in my own organization? Maybe I've actually got more than 1 or 2 legitimate pitching prospects in my organization and can afford to send a bona fide starter and a bona fide relief pitcher from my AA team to Cincinnati to get Phillips.

    (This is a concept that is so foreign to Reds fans that we regularly forget that other organizations aren't nearly as inept at drafting & developing pitching.)

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Reds are currently 12th of 16 in the NL with a team ERA of 4.67. Houston and St. Louis are 13th and 14th, with ERAs of 4.68 and 4.69, respectively.

    Cincinnati bullpen is tied for 2nd with 15 blown saves this year.

    This team isn't going anywhere until it comes up with significantly better pitching.

    If the Reds want another top flight young starting pitcher, or maybe a solid set up man and a closer with lights-out potential, they're going to have to give something up to get it.

    I'm not suggesting the Reds give away Phillips. I like him too. But his value's just about as high as it's ever going to be.

    So let's see what the market is.

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by 15fan View Post
    Reds are currently 12th of 16 in the NL with a team ERA of 4.67. Houston and St. Louis are 13th and 14th, with ERAs of 4.68 and 4.69, respectively.

    Cincinnati bullpen is tied for 2nd with 15 blown saves this year.

    If the Reds want another top flight young starting pitcher, or maybe a solid set up man and a closer with lights-out potential, they're going to have to give something up to get it.

    I'm not suggesting the Reds give away Phillips. I like him too. But his value's just about as high as it's ever going to be.

    So let's see what the market is.
    I agree. It's the right strategy. You may not like the return offers, but I'd be shopping him hard, too.

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I agree. It's the right strategy. You may not like the return offers, but I'd be shopping him hard, too.
    As would I. I'm also wary of players whose SLG% is HR-driven. If/when the power goes away, so does the production. Which isn't to say that Phillips' production this year hasn't been outstanding--he's having a heckuva year. Too bad it's wasted on a team mired in last place.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by registerthis View Post
    As would I. I'm also wary of players whose SLG% is HR-driven. If/when the power goes away, so does the production. Which isn't to say that Phillips' production this year hasn't been outstanding--he's having a heckuva year. Too bad it's wasted on a team mired in last place.
    But why are we in last place? Would you say the same thing about Dunn, Jr, Hatte, and Hamilton?..... because they are performing that they are being "wasted" on a last place team?

    There has to come a point in time when you identify certain players as building blocks for the future. I think Phillips, who just turned 26, is one of those players. IMHO, the guy is gonna win a GG at 2B.

    It seems, when talking about Phillips, people are "worrying" over what future production might be and trying to play Nostradamus looking into a crystal ball. That somehow, when he gets into his early 30's that production may fall off. If true, so what? He's entering his peak years and IMO showing growing maturity. Lets take advantage of it and hold onto players like this for a change and quit labelling him posibly another Pokey Reese (as some have).

    Lets be inventive and find other ways to resolve our curent problem at addressing our pitching other then divesting ourselves of positives. I think it can be done. But build around players like Dunn, Phillips, and possibly a few others.
    Last edited by GAC; 07-19-2007 at 10:26 PM.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    But why are we in last place? Would you say the same thing about Dunn, Jr, Hatte, and Hamilton?..... because they are performing that they are being "wasted" on a last place team?

    There has to come a point in time when you identify certain players as building blocks for the future. I think Phillips, who just turned 26, is one of those players. IMHO, the guy is gonna win a GG at 2B.

    It seems, when talking about Phillips, people are "worrying" over what future production might be and trying to play Nostradamus looking into a crystal ball. That somehow, when he gets into his early 30's that production may fall off. If true, so what? He's entering his peak years and IMO showing growing maturity. Lets take advantage of it and hold onto players like this for a change and quit labelling him posibly another Pokey Reese (as some have).

    Lets be inventive and find other ways to resolve our curent problem at addressing our pitching other then divesting ourselves of positives. I think it can be done. But build around players like Dunn, Phillips, and possibly a few others.
    It took us 20+ years to find a 2nd Baseman as good as Phillips. It's going to be fun having him around through at least 2010. I just wish I lived in Cincy so I could watch him all the time. The infield of Edwin-Gonzo-Phillips has got to be fun to watch defensively now that they've had some time to work with each other...not a lot of time as Edwin and Gonzo has missed a lot of games, but it will only get better as it has with Gonzo and Phillips as the season has progressed. We were last in the Majors in turning double-plays through the first month of the season and now we seem to turn at least one or two every game.
    Last edited by Eric_Davis; 07-19-2007 at 11:28 PM.
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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    But why are we in last place? Would you say the same thing about Dunn, Jr, Hatte, and Hamilton?..... because they are performing that they are being "wasted" on a last place team?
    Pretty much, yeah. if you aren't willing/aren't able to put the pieces together to go along with your star players to field a competitive team, what those star players do is irellevant so far as the team's fortunes are concerned. (Except in trade value.) I have no problems keeping Phillips if the Reds do have a plan to legitimately build around him. Same for Dunn and Hamilton. But if the idea in the coming years is "more of the same;" i.e. mediocre pitching from both starters and relievers, and subpar management, then Phillips could become the second coming of Joe Morgan and it wouldn't effect this team's fortunes one iota.

    I'm happy Phillips is having a great year. I'm happy he's doing it as a Red. But the only thing it has done for the franchise is keep them from being even worse than they are. Stats are great, but the only thing that matters is the W-L line--and teams need more than a couple of Brandon Phillips's in order to be competitive.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by 15fan View Post
    I'm not suggesting the Reds give away Phillips. I like him too. But his value's just about as high as it's ever going to be.

    So let's see what the market is.
    I like the idea better in theory than practice. I'm a build-up-the-middle sort and Phillips is a keeper in my eyes. In fact, I think he's the linchpin position player on this team.

    Plus, my guess is Brandon Phillips is going to be a very good player for the next half decade. If I were worried that this is the best we're going to see from him, then I'd be all for shopping him, but that's not the case (with me at least).

    The guy I'd be looking to sell high at this moment is Josh Hamilton. He's not terribly young and he's looking a litle fragile. He's a RF, not a CF and Jay Bruce (ideally a RF) is coming.
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