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Thread: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Kearns View Post
    And what does Jennings have to do with getting a good bullpen? Where was the good bullpen going to come from?

    The only time you even consider trading a prospect for Bailey for a pitcher like Jennings is when you are on the brink of contention for a World Series.

    Clearly this team was not destined for great things, and definitely did not have the bullpen in place to make this team good. So why would you trade your best prospect for Jennings, when the rest of the team is not ready to contend?

    There is a time and a palce to deal prospects for rental players, and the Reds are not there, and that certainly doesn't change with Jennings on the team.
    Amazing- you and I actually agree. :
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I'd have no regrets at all. Especially if you believe as I do that Bailey will be a complete bust. With Jennings and a bullpen we're at the top of the division right now.
    You mean Jason Jennings? He of the 4.76 ERA and a bum shoulder? With Jason Jennings we're 11 out instead of 13. Let's definitely trade a guy with a potential to be very good for a guy who makes absolutely no impact in the outcome of our season. Or was a Bailey trade going bring us JJ Putz, Jonathan Broxton, and a productive EE too?

    Time will tell whether or not Bailey pans out. What we do know is that Homer Bailey dominated AA at the age of 20 and that most guys who do that become servicable major league pitchers. There are a whole lot of guys who know scouting well that say Bailey is as good a prospect as there is. Is he ready yet? Nope. Should we therefore assume he'll bust and try to make a run by dealing him for rental players to fill out a team that is otherwise on pace for 95+ losses? Heck no. Even if I agreed that Bailey was likely to be a bust and that we should trade him ASAP while his value his high, Jennings is nowhere close to the kind of return we should look for.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 07-20-2007 at 02:49 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Amazing- you and I actually agree. :
    I agree with you lots, just not regarding prospects. But i don't think we ever had differing views on Bailey.

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    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I'd have no regrets at all. Especially if you believe as I do that Bailey will be a complete bust. With Jennings and a bullpen we're at the top of the division right now.
    Here's the latest on Jennings:

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=6477

    "He's done," the source told me after watching Jason Jennings pitch. A very knowledgeable man that I trust on pitching, he thinks that Jennings' shoulder is "catching," reducing his velocity and changing his mechanics enough to reduce movement. He also doesn't believe that Jennings made any improvement after a DL stint, implying that there's more going on inside the arm. Jennings' results back up this assertion, and point to perhaps another period on the DL in the near future. With Jennings' impending free agency, it will be curious how the Astros handle this. Will they acknowledge their trade for Jennings didn't work, or will they try to get whatever they can from him in a season that's lost?

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by Always Red View Post
    I didn't know his injuries were that bad. But that can happen to anybody--even Bailey.

    The problem with listening to scouts (and there are benefits to listening to scouts) is that they shy away from results; all they care about are raw skills, height, frame, release points, motion--stuff like that. Production doesn't mean much to them, for the most part. I have little doubt that Bailey, tall and well-cut, with symmetrical features, from Texas (I imagine he gets several brownie points and ranking points from his home state alone--I imagine if he were from Wisconsin, scouts would have a different degree of affection for him) has scouts thinking Nolan Ryan. That's great--but that's where reality leaps off into mythology and hyperbole, and radar gun readings that should say 92 turn into "95 MPH with regularity." That's okay--that's human nature.

    But my philosophy is this: far too many superhyped prospects fail to meet expectations AND far too many underheralded arms became front of the rotation starters for me to throw my trust into the arms of scouts that confer with BA.

    As has been hashed over (and ignored) far too often on this site is Bailey's control problems--problems that have not improved the least bit since he stepped into professional ball. He's 21--there's time. But if he can't start painting the corners with his "now" 92 mile an hour fastball, then that mythical 97 MPH fastball isn't going to come out of the clouds, deus ex machina, to save him.
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 07-20-2007 at 04:24 PM.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    As for production, through 2006, Bailey has a career ERA of 3.36, a WHIP of 1.25, 10.3 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, and .217 OAVG. At his last stop, as a 20 year old in AA, he put up a 1.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 2.8 K/BB, and .208 OAVG. He's produced. The scouts like him and so do the stat geeks. The stats, the PRODUCTION, says he's a very good prospect.

    You're absolutely right FCB. But that throwaway line of "there's time" is the entire point. Most prospects take 3-4 years to hone their craft. At 20 Bailey dominated AA and didn't even get half a season to develop in AAA. If he's been developing for 4-5 years and still hasn't figured it out, then you capitalize.

    But trading away a top prospect (with all the caveats that come with being a prospect) because at age 20 he hasn't figured it all out, for the purpose of acquiring a mediocre rental player to supplement an otherwise bad team just isn't a good idea. We aren't the Astros trading away Freddy Garcia to get Randy Johnson.

    Regarding his velocity; he's always worked in the low to mid 90's, 90-94. Just because some scouting reports say he touches 97 and others works int he mid 90's all the time doesn't make it true. I can't find any scouting report that claims he works higher than 93 actually. Add in a groin injury that probably affects his drive and viola.

    He doesn't need a 97 MPH fastball to save him. He needs to hone his mechanics (and thus his control) and his approach. His fastball has good life and his curve is plus. We saw it against the A's when they came out aggressive and he was working in the zone.

    You say "there's time' as if he's probably done for. This is just a ridiculous case of confirmation bias. I have no idea how good of a pitcher Bailey will become. I do know that most pitchers of his pedigree, who have the success he's had to date at his age, do something of value. If you want to trade away every prospect of value who has the odds of making it big against him, you're going to be left without a single decent prospect.

    Homer might not be ready to be a major league pitcher. But there's not just time, there's LOTS of time. Everything he's done to date suggests he has a very high ceiling but that he still has some things to work on. Let him.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 07-20-2007 at 04:48 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    You're absolutely right FCB. But that throwaway line of "there's time" is the entire point. Most prospects take 3-4 years to hone their craft. At 20 Bailey dominated AA and didn't even get half a season to develop in AAA. If he's been developing for 4-5 years and still hasn't figured it out, then you capitalize.

    But trading away a top prospect (with all the caveats that come with being a prospect) because at age 20 he hasn't figured it all out, for the purpose of acquiring a mediocre rental player to supplement an otherwise bad team just isn't a good idea. We aren't the Astros trading away Freddy Garcia to get Randy Johnson.

    Regarding his velocity; he's always worked in the low to mid 90's, 90-94. Just because some scouting reports say he touches 97 and others works int he mid 90's all the time doesn't make it true. I can't find any scouting report that claims he works higher than 93 actually. Add in a groin injury that probably affects his drive and viola.

    He doesn't need a 97 MPH fastball to save him. He needs to hone his mechanics (and thus his control) and his approach. His fastball does have good life and his curve is plus. We saw it against the A's when they came out aggressive and he was working in the zone.

    You say "there's time' as if he's probably done for. This is just a ridiculous case of confirmation bias. I have no idea how good of a pitcher Bailey will become. I do know that most pitchers of his pedigree, who have the success he's had to date at his age, do something of value. If you want to trade away every prospect of value who has the odds of making it big against him, you're going to be left without a single decent prospect.
    As Willy Shakespeare said, "There is a tide..."

    Only once will Bailey be at the height of his hype. Then reality sets in (be it good or bad). I want to start capitalizing on that misty, murky region of hype and hope. This ballclub never, ever capitalizes on it.

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    As Willy Shakespeare said, "There is a tide..."

    Only once will Bailey be at the height of his hype. Then reality sets in (be it good or bad). I want to start capitalizing on that misty, murky region of hype and hope. This ballclub never, ever capitalizes on it.
    Wow, how depressing. Why even follow the game if you have absolutely no hope? Even false hope would be something.... The only way to guarantee failure is to stop trying to win.

    Ol' Billy also said "To be, or not to be..." Apparently you are choosing not to be. And I would argue you are abandoning the tide out of fear, condemning yourself to the shallows.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 07-20-2007 at 05:28 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Wow, how depressing. Why even follow the game if you have absolutely no hope? Even false hope would be something.... The only way to guarantee failure is to stop trying to win.
    I have hope-- I think you misinterpret my post. I'm saying the Reds need to capitalize on the hype of their own players as it affects other GMs--trade hype for the real thing/real MLB production.

    I think teams get way too "sentimental?" about their prospects--and I think it's wiser not to be sentimental about them at all. I think they should be regarded as commodities to be shuffled in the service of the MLB squad and the MLB team's win-loss record.

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Wow, how depressing. Why even follow the game if you have absolutely no hope? Even false hope would be something.... The only way to guarantee failure is to stop trying to win.
    “We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.”

    Oscar Wilde

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    I do think it's fascinating though how in the discussion of Bailey anymore, the words "serviceable" and "valuable" are being thrown around instead of "guaranteed ace-level prospect" and "near sure thing."

    Continuing the Willy S. theme: "for there is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so."

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I'd have no regrets at all. Especially if you believe as I do that Bailey will be a complete bust. With Jennings and a bullpen we're at the top of the division right now.
    The same can probably be said about "with Bailey and a good bullpen we're at the top of the division".

    Jennings has won 1 game for the Astros this year, half as many as Bailey in about twice as many starts. I don't think he was the missing link.

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    The same can probably be said about "with Bailey and a good bullpen we're at the top of the division".

    Jennings has won 1 game for the Astros this year, half as many as Bailey in about twice as many starts. I don't think he was the missing link.
    Turns out, Jennings is hurt. How was I or anyone else to know?

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Turns out, Jennings is hurt. How was I or anyone else to know?

    Well, since you "know" Bailey will be a complete bust, I assumed you would know that Jennings would be injured and a very bad pitcher this year.

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Since the conversation has shifted to Bailey a bit more, what about moving him to the closer role? It seems like he has a pretty good shot of striking guys out and good closers are hard to find (and have become expensive). The control issue could be a problem, but maybe he'd have better control if he was just pitching for an inning? Turning a stud starting pitcher prospect into a closer has worked for the Red Sox...


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