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Thread: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    My philosophy doesn't involve trading all minor league commodiities for MLB commodities--though it does lean that direction. My philosophy argues that you should always exploit hype, exploit the difference between what people think they are getting and what they are actually getting (cf. the John Schuerholz method).
    Right but that's back to the original argument. It's not at all certain that Homer fits that type of player.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Right but that's back to the original argument. It's not at all certain that Homer fits that type of player.
    Really, there's no way in the world Homer Bailey lives up to his hype unless he actually mimics the career of either Nolan Ryan or Roger Clemens. Because that's the kind of language that surrounds Bailey.

    Let me give you an example of what I mean: I look at a kid like Johnny Cueto, whose numbers are really not all that far off from Bailey's, but because he isn't a Texan and because he's 5' 11" and not 6'4", he's considered a second-fiddle prospect, someone who would likely return a bunch less than a Homer Bailey in trade. Therefore, the hype surrounding Cueto is much smaller. However, in my estimation, it's no less likely that Cueto becomes that top-of-the-rotation starter than it is Bailey. So which one might I trade? Which one should I keep? Me? I keep Cueto, because his hype hasn't grown disproportionately with his production. And I trade Bailey, whose hype has far outpaced his likely ability to produce to that level.
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 07-20-2007 at 11:30 PM.

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Really, there's no way in the world Homer Bailey lives up to his hype unless he actually mimics the career of either Nolan Ryan or Roger Clemens. Because that's the kind of language that surrounds Bailey.

    Let me give you an example of what I mean: I look at a kid like Johnny Cueto, whose numbers are really not all that far off from Bailey's, but because he isn't a Texan and because he's 5' 11" and not 6'4", he's considered a second-fiddle prospect, someone who would likely return a bunch less than a Homer Bailey in trade. Therefore, the hype surrounding Cueto is much smaller. However, in my estimation, it's no less likely that Cueto becomes that top-of-the-rotation starter than it is Bailey. So which one might I trade? Which one should I keep? Me? I keep Cueto, because his hype hasn't grown disproportionately with his production. And I trade Bailey, whose hype has far outpaced his likely ability to produce to that level.
    Most scouts disagree about the ceilings for the two. Cueto gets knocked for his physique but really that's a bias that has been borne from experience. Statures aside, there are some pretty big differences in their stuff.

    Consider the papelbon case....Cueto is basically another guy with good command of two power pitches without a quality offspeed pitch to complement them. Take his stature and stuff into account and he's another arm that seems to scream high leverage bullpen guy....

    As always, I reserve the right to be wrong about Cueto's future, but I think most scouts would argue Homer and Cueto project differently.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Really, there's no way in the world Homer Bailey lives up to his hype unless he actually mimics the career of either Nolan Ryan or Roger Clemens. Because that's the kind of language that surrounds Bailey.
    You're right. The hype was there. Homer Bailey is a pitcher who throws high 90's gas and has two other plus MLB pitches.

    The reality? Homer Bailey has to reach back to hit 95 MPH and he has little idea of where that fastball is going. His secondary pitches were not only mediocre but it was obvious that he had no command. I hope the kid can figure out how to improve those offerings because, without a truly dominant fastball, he's a fringe starter and potentially a decent reliever.

    Hopefully, Bailey can learn the command required to work in the 91-94 MPH range with solid secondary pitches (ala Aaron Harang). The alternative is that Bailey fills out and actually starts throwing in the mid to high 90 MPH range consistently (as advertised) with at least one plus secondary pitch and another offering that's at least average.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by SunDeck View Post
    Bailey as a closer? Not something I'd even be thinking about at this stage. First of all, he's young and is still raw. He's not ready yet. Second of all, a starting pitcher is worth more to the team than a closer. I think it's a little amusing how every little bump in the road gets people worked up. People grow, mature, learn and develop at different times and in different ways. Bailey is a long way from being the steamroller that people are hoping he'll be. There is no reason at this point to start changing directions on him.
    The Reds are in desperate need of a closer. They're not likely to outbid a major market for a free agent closer (not that many exist anyhow) and they don't exactly have a lot in the ways of pitching prospects. It's a legitimate need for the team and it's a very important role. We could argue all day about a starting pitcher being more important than a dominant closer, but I'd say the need is great. David Weathers has done a great job this season, but he may be traded away and is more fit for a setup guy anyhow. Not to mention, he's not so young. You need someone to shut down games when you have the lead (especially since it's looking like Grif and Dunn may not be with us beyond next season).

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    We were told (by innumerable sources) that he would kick the door down upon arriving in the majors. I and many others said don't bring him up--his numbers (not his age) indicate that he's not ready.
    His age, which is indicative of his lack of experience/maturity, is also a solid indicator that he shouldn't have been called up. Again - how many 21 yr old arms can you sight... give me some names of pitchers... that have come up at that age and shown any level of success and didn't struggle/show inconsistency? It's a rarity. Why should it be different for Homer?

    So yes, his age is a factor.

    Turns out that the folks pimping Bailey, saying things like "When he gets up here, he gets up here for GOOD!" were dead wrong
    I listened to interviews with a couple of his coaches at the farm level earlier in the season. They were pre-game interviews. But those are the people I listen to - not the media or FO PR. They also basically said that he was the "real deal" and when he gets the call up he'll be up for good. Were tyey wrong? No. Because those same people also disagreed with him being called up when he was. They were apprehensive about the decision.

    It was a bad decision by this FO to do so IMO. They found out the hard way that this kid isn't ready. But there was no damage done. Now we (they) know.... the kid needs more time in the minors.

    couple that with a decent little wave of negative press surrounding his awful arrival in the majors, and a bunch of shine comes off the kid, fair or not.
    If you're attempting to trade him, then yeah. But they aren't (or shouldn't) be attempting to do so at this early stage. I'm glad some of that "shine" (pressure) cam off of him from this recent stint. There was too much hype.

    Now let him stay at that level, with the pressure off of him, while he becomes somewhat "anonymous" or having to answer questions of when he is going to be ready.

    The Reds need pitching; but they shouldn't be trying to rush a 21 yr old in order to solve that problem.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  8. #202
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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    The Reds are in desperate need of a closer. They're not likely to outbid a major market for a free agent closer (not that many exist anyhow) and they don't exactly have a lot in the ways of pitching prospects. It's a legitimate need for the team and it's a very important role. We could argue all day about a starting pitcher being more important than a dominant closer, but I'd say the need is great. David Weathers has done a great job this season, but he may be traded away and is more fit for a setup guy anyhow. Not to mention, he's not so young. You need someone to shut down games when you have the lead (especially since it's looking like Grif and Dunn may not be with us beyond next season).

    I agree the Reds are in desperate need of a closer, but a closer doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot if you can't put starters out there who are going to keep them in the game. AI just think it is too early to start changing direction on Bailey. To me he has a greater potential value as an inning eater.
    Next Reds manager, second shooter. --Confirmed on Redszone.

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by SunDeck View Post
    I agree the Reds are in desperate need of a closer, but a closer doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot if you can't put starters out there who are going to keep them in the game.
    You beat me to it SD. Lets get the rotation solidified before we start overpaying for a closer.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations


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