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Thread: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

  1. #31
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    But I'd rather seek my SLG from more traditional and reliable sources, like a REAL 1B man or 3B man, AND use that 2nd base offensive surplus to snag pitching in the bargain. I think that would optimize resources.
    Look at it from a scarcity standpoint. Five-tool 2Bs are exceptionally rare. You can find 1B production without too much trouble. The world abounds with REAL 1Bs. You'll go farther with a solid 1B and a standout 2B than you will with a hammer 1B and a Judy 2B.

    And then factor small market considerations. Why pay for 1B production when it's plentiful? You've got to save your money for scarce items. That doesn't mean I'm opposed to paying for corner bats if it fits the budget, but long-term I want to be investing in up-the-middle talents ... like Brandon Phillips.

    Offense at 2B is never a surplus. It's a massive competitive advantage, especially when it comes in a package with a quality glove. If you want to optimize your resources, keep the 2B production.
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  3. #32
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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Guess I'm just spoiled at the SS position--Larkin, Davey...but I see what you're saying.
    You probably are, as from what I can gather are most Reds fans. I notice it myself, that's what two decades of the A's and Giants looking for the right guy did to me. The difference is staggering.

    Code:
    1982-2001
    SS
    
    GAMES                            G     
    1    Barry Larkin               1805   
    2    Dave Concepcion             614   
    3    Pokey Reese                 222   
    4    Jeff Branson                149   
    5    Tom Foley                   135   
    6    Kurt Stillwell              131   
    7    Juan Castro                 103   
    8    Mariano Duncan               94   
    9    Freddie Benavides            54   
    10   Jeff Richardson              39  
    
    
    SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
    CAREER
    1982-2001
    SS
    
    GAMES                            G     
    1    Jose Uribe                  969   
    2    Rich Aurilia                694   
    3    Royce Clayton               499   
    4    Johnnie LeMaster            408   
    5    Mike Benjamin               170   
    6    Jose Vizcaino               147   
    7    Matt Williams               119   
    8    Dave Anderson                92   
    9    Shawon Dunston               87   
    10   Ramon Martinez               80 
    
    
    OAKLAND A'S
    CAREER
    1982-2001
    SS
    
    GAMES                            G     
    1    Mike Bordick                715   
    2    Miguel Tejada               611   
    3    Walt Weiss                  522   
    4    Alfredo Griffin             461   
    5    Mike Gallego                282   
    6    Tony Phillips               269   
    7    Rafael Bournigal            135   
    8    Donnie Hill                 121   
    9    Fred Stanley                 98   
    10   Tony Batista                 65
    It also seems (aside from you) most Reds fans want a hitting catcher first and a competent receiver that nurtures the staff second. That's another Reds fan legacy though, the Reds have had the best hitting catchers in the game for the past 100 years.

  4. #33
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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by 15fan View Post
    But I don't think Hamilton is quite at peak value right now. He needs to come back from the injury & get going again. If he does, then I think he's really shoppable this winter.
    That's possible. I don't know that his injury has overly diminished Hamilton's trade value. Perhaps it has, but in general a sprained wrist doesn't torpedo a guy's market. Though I can see where Hamilton could be a volatile commodity.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  5. #34
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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    First, I don't believe Phillips is that scarce--no more scarce than say, Giles.

    Second, I know all about the hunt for scarcity and competitive advantage. I'd rather hunt for pitching scarcity. I'd love to have a competitive advantage at all positions, but I know that's a bit like chasing the Grail, and is probably unrealistic to attempt to hold together as one competitive squad. I'm only suggesting trading from a "strength" to a obtain pitching when I suggest trading Phillips.

    Remember--this team STILL has no pitching--majors or minors. That's just where we are. Nothing's going to change until it does.

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    First, I don't believe Phillips is that scarce--no more scarce than say, Giles.

    Second, I know all about the hunt for scarcity and competitive advantage. I'd rather hunt for pitching scarcity. I'd love to have a competitive advantage at all positions, but I know that's a bit like chasing the Grail, and is probably unrealistic to attempt to hold together as one competitive squad. I'm only suggesting trading from a "strength" to a obtain pitching when I suggest trading Phillips.

    Remember--this team STILL has no pitching--majors or minors. That's just where we are. Nothing's going to change until it does.
    Yep. How is the "competitive advantage" of a Brandon Phillips helping the Reds if they still have no pitching staff?
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    Yep. How is the "competitive advantage" of a Brandon Phillips helping the Reds if they still have no pitching staff?
    So trade Griffey and/or Dunn to get pitching.

    Realistically, if they could get one #2 starter* and a couple of bullpen guys from these two, they would be set to contend immediately.

    *Easier said than done
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  8. #37
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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    My thought on it is this: I don't sweat getting meager production from two spots on the diamond--catcher and second base. Everywhere else, you better put up some numbers.

    So, in my mind, Phillips represents a positional "surplus." Which is a very good thing. It's rare, and when you have it, it sure makes a weak 1B and 3B production seem like less of an eyesore.

    But I'd rather seek my SLG from more traditional and reliable sources, like a REAL 1B man or 3B man, AND use that 2nd base offensive surplus to snag pitching in the bargain. I think that would optimize resources.

    I like Phillips; he's far exceeded my early low expectations. But there's a reason I had those low expectations to begin with, and those reasons still apply: his seeming allergy to BBs. His game remains swing-driven; he's getting it done now, but I have a feeling that when he hits a bump, all the wheels are going to fall off.
    This logic is extremely flawed. So using your second base and catcher production the Phillies should trade Chase Utley and look for better production at 3rd. And the Dodgers should trade Martin and look for a better 1b bat. And I guess you would consider Victor Martinez a proper fit at 1b but on days he playes catcher he is out producing what a catcher should?

    Every team isn't built by the book. Look at the reds during the 70's they had a lot of production coming from the C and 2B spot. Phillips is exactly the kind of player that you can build around. Young, cheap, and talented are all things that a team like the reds need to build around. Phillips brings a tremendous amount of value to the reds. I would also argue that the reds and their starting staff look to be in pretty good shap with Harang, Arroyo, and Bailey anchoring the top 3 spots for years to come. Largely its the bullpen that has driven the reds ERA up all year long. I know many people are waiting for Phillips to fall flat on his face but so far he has backed up last years good year with an even better year this year.

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    No, just no.

    Also: Your buy low sell high doesn't make sense with baseball.

    We bought low, but now we have HIGH product. Why trade HIGH product for another HIGH product? Why not just keep HIGH product? It's not like the stock market and cashing in....
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  10. #39
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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    I think a trade of Phillips is extreeemely unlikely at this point, all things considered, so, really can't even expend much energy even thinking about it.

  11. #40
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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    First, I don't believe Phillips is that scarce--no more scarce than say, Giles.

    Second, I know all about the hunt for scarcity and competitive advantage. I'd rather hunt for pitching scarcity. I'd love to have a competitive advantage at all positions, but I know that's a bit like chasing the Grail, and is probably unrealistic to attempt to hold together as one competitive squad. I'm only suggesting trading from a "strength" to a obtain pitching when I suggest trading Phillips.

    Remember--this team STILL has no pitching--majors or minors. That's just where we are. Nothing's going to change until it does.
    Guys who can lead their position in HR and SBs are not that common. I like Marcus Giles (currently seeing his offensive numbers suffer from the San Diego effect), but he can't do that. Phillips' offense is hard to find at 2B and when you add in his glove, he's in a very small group. Freddy Sanchez and Orlando Hudson can't match his power/speed combo. Dan Uggla can't match him with the leather (or on the bases).

    As for the pitching, I'm all for it, but I wouldn't trade Brandon Phillips for someone else's Homer Bailey. Production for hype? No thank you. If another team was dealing a bona fide ace, I'd have a different position, but I don't think we have to worry about that at the moment. There's other players I'd trade for pitching prospects, just not Phillips. Though I tend to be of the opinion that the better pitchers the Reds can get their hands on aren't the ones at the top of the hype cycle, it's the ones who are doing the less sexy work of adjusting to the majors and who might be undervalued at the moment.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  12. #41
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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    This logic is extremely flawed. So using your second base and catcher production the Phillies should trade Chase Utley and look for better production at 3rd. And the Dodgers should trade Martin and look for a better 1b bat. And I guess you would consider Victor Martinez a proper fit at 1b but on days he playes catcher he is out producing what a catcher should?

    Every team isn't built by the book. Look at the reds during the 70's they had a lot of production coming from the C and 2B spot. Phillips is exactly the kind of player that you can build around. Young, cheap, and talented are all things that a team like the reds need to build around. Phillips brings a tremendous amount of value to the reds. I would also argue that the reds and their starting staff look to be in pretty good shap with Harang, Arroyo, and Bailey anchoring the top 3 spots for years to come. Largely its the bullpen that has driven the reds ERA up all year long. I know many people are waiting for Phillips to fall flat on his face but so far he has backed up last years good year with an even better year this year.
    The logic may sound convoluted, but it's not flawed.

    My logic presupposes a couple of things--1. If time and money weren't a concern for the Reds, of course you keep Phillips. But they are a concern--a competitive window presents itself in the next two seasons with Harang and Arroyo--after which time, and without pitching reinforcements, that window closes, for who knows how long.

    2. Pitching is more important than offensive production, and it is far more difficult to acquire. Some can greatly disagree with that. Fine. But when you consider that the Reds actually have a handful of good looking offensive players in the minors (Votto, Bruce) and an underachieving bat (EdE) who will likely turn it around, and guy who looks like the real thing playing for peanuts (Hamilton), and then look what the Reds' pitching picture looks like in the majors AND the minors, you will see that even though the offense hasn't been great this year, its future looks a LOT brighter than the pitching's.

    On a micro level, Phillips is great, a value and something of a scarcity. On a more macro level, you realize that in terms of winning, Phillips represents a very tiny sliver of what it's going to take to get the team over the top to contention--but COULD represent a quantum leap in terms of trade value.

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by CrackerJack View Post
    I think a trade of Phillips is extreeemely unlikely at this point, all things considered, so, really can't even expend much energy even thinking about it.
    You're right. This team's about as adventurous as a bachelor party full of grandmas.

  14. #43
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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    FCB, I think you overvalue the Reds' offense. The team plays in the GAB, so the offense looks healthier than it is. Yet on the park-neutralized team EQA list, the Reds rank 21st. Phillips is just about the only guy on the team hitting better on the road this season (Scott Hatteberg is the guy who enjoys the biggest GAB numbers inflation).

    I'm all for radical moves to get pitching, but Phillips strikes me as the last guy a non-descript offense and a bad defense (28th in DER) can afford to lose.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  15. #44
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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Nobody should be untouchable but I think it would be foolish to actively shop Phillips at this point.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

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    Re: Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    So trade Griffey and/or Dunn to get pitching.

    Realistically, if they could get one #2 starter* and a couple of bullpen guys from these two, they would be set to contend immediately.

    *Easier said than done
    Phillips would bring a much better return at this point due to the extreme value of his contract.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful


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