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Thread: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

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  1. #1
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    I was hoping to see most of Stanton, Lohse, Conine, and Hat dealt by now, so Wayne could focus on potentially bigger deals in the last few days (such as Weathers/Dunn).

    My prediction is that we will see only 1 or 2 trades. Wayne will drag them out, and then we'll get nothing for some guys that should've been moved for the best offer.
    Sure, there's always the non-waiver deadline, but I'd rather just move them now. I think he'll get even less after the non-waiver deadline.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  2. #2
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Given this market, the biggest non-trade would be that of Kyle Lohse. While I actually wouldn't mind keeping him around at $4M or so, as a Boras client, the asking price will be that of a legit #3 starter (3 years, $30M). As Cyclone has shown, he will not get us compensation picks, so letting him walking gives us nothing.

    I get the feeling that Castellini, in his gut, is afraid that auctioning guys off makes it look like we're "giving up" to the casual fan and that's not what he wants to portray. Like we see over and over in the failing organizations, they underestimate the fan's ability to understand how progress is actually made and so they try to save face, undercutting their ability to actually build a winner.

    I don't care if we get 10 cents on the dollar for Kyle Lohse. 10 cents is more than 0 cents, which is what I fear we're going to end up with. I'm trying to ignore the possibility that we try to "build" on our "success" and resign Lohse, Hatteberg, etc. for more money...
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  3. #3
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    REDREAD, I suspect you're right. These are dull days to be sure.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  4. #4
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I was hoping to see most of Stanton, Lohse, Conine, and Hat dealt by now, so Wayne could focus on potentially bigger deals in the last few days (such as Weathers/Dunn).

    My prediction is that we will see only 1 or 2 trades. Wayne will drag them out, and then we'll get nothing for some guys that should've been moved for the best offer.
    Sure, there's always the non-waiver deadline, but I'd rather just move them now. I think he'll get even less after the non-waiver deadline.
    I totally agree. I don't even know if will see 2 trades the way things are going.

    Now one would think with Bray, Guardado, Hamilton, Gonzalez, and possibly Bailey coming back by early to mid August that some house cleaning would be made to make room for them.

    Also you have Votto (.307 w/ 14 Homeruns and 61 RBI's) waiting in the wings to emerge from Louisville. Also how far off is Jay Bruce? .280 w/ 4 HR's and 9 RBI's in just 14 games. This season for Bruce: .320 w/ 19 HR's and 73 RBI's between SAR, CHA, & LOU.
    "I could watch video of Griffey swinging all day. It's like baseball porn." - C. Trent Rosecrans


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    2009 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 2L

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  5. #5
    Member Stormy's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Treading water has been the modus operandi of every Reds' 'administration' for most of the past decade (excepting Bowden's flourishes of major attempted improvement prior to the 1999 and 2000 seasons). Avoid making the painful decisions, don't part with the fan favorites regardless of production issues, trust that the temporary boost after an interim management change is the real deal, try to simultaneously compete while rebuilding.

    Nevermind that the Reds' definition of 'competing' or 'contending' during the span of the past 3 regimes vastly differs from those of franchises which actually 'contend' in the real baseball world. The result of this process is the equivalent of changing the window dressing on a condemned shanty and calling it repaired, otherwise known as 7 consecutive losing seasons (nearly halfway to the Pirates).

    Wayne Krivsky has apparently once again convinced himself that the Reds 13-8 record in Pete's 21 games is indicative that he has a real contender on his hands for 2008 if he can just make a few tweaks. Of course, this is utter nonsense, and this team's inherent flaws left unaddressed will soon re-emerge to completely eclipse the improvements we've seen over the past 20+ games. The pieces don't fit will together, whether you're looking at the style of the offense, the construction of the bench, the design of much of the bullpen, or the production of the back 3/5 of the rotation.

    How far does this team fall the moment Lohse returns to form, the next time Griffey goes down to injury, as soon as father time reasserts dominion over Weathers resurrgence? This team doesn't need a complete demolition, but it does need a serious renovation which removes the wheat from the chaffe, and which serves to stockpile some talented, inexpensive youth in place of overpriced, aging, long-term risks. We can't just trade a spare part or two, maintain the status quo, and think that Wayne can transform us into contenders with his 2008 version of signings Stanton, Gonzo, Conine etc...

    That is a recipe for finding ourselves in the same place in July 2008, as we did in early July 2007, only this time it will be Wayne's dismissal that we'll be witnessing. Then again, maybe that's not such a bad thing. Identify your future nucleus, as well as the pieces which must be translated into future commodities via trade (Lohse, Weathers, Hattenine etc...) and rebuild accordingly.
    Last edited by Stormy; 07-27-2007 at 12:05 PM.

  6. #6
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stormy View Post
    Treading water has been the modus operandi of every Reds' 'administration' for most of the past decade (excepting Bowden's flourishes of major attempted improvement prior to the 1999 and 2000 seasons). Avoid making the painful decisions, don't part with the fan favorites regardless of production issues, trust that the temporary boost after an interim management change is the real deal, try to simultaneously compete while rebuilding.

    Nevermind that the Reds' definition of 'competing' or 'contending' during the span of the past 3 regimes vastly differs from those of franchises which actually 'contend' in the real baseball world. The result of this process is the equivalent of changing the window dressing on a condemned shanty and calling it repaired, otherwise known as 7 consecutive losing seasons (nearly halfway to the Pirates).

    Wayne Krivsky has apparently once again convinced himself that the Reds 13-8 record in Pete's 21 games is indicative that he has a real contender on his hands for 2008 if he can just make a few tweaks. Of course, this is utter nonsense, and this team's inherent flaws left unaddressed will soon re-emerge to completely eclipse the improvements we've seen over the past 20+ games. The pieces don't fit will together, whether you're looking at the style of the offense, the construction of the bench, the design of much of the bullpen, or the production of the back 3/5 of the rotation.

    How far does this team fall the moment Lohse returns to form, the next time Griffey goes down to injury, as soon as father time reasserts dominion over Weathers resurrgence? This team doesn't need a complete demolition, but it does need a serious renovation which removes the wheat from the chaffe, and which serves to stockpile some talented, inexpensive youth in place of overpriced, aging, long-term risks. We can't just trade a spare part or two, maintain the status quo, and think that Wayne can transform us into contenders with his 2008 version of signings Stanton, Gonzo, Conine etc...

    That is a recipe for finding ourselves in the same place in July 2008, as we did in early July 2007, only this time it will be Wayne's dismissal that we'll be witnessing. Then again, maybe that's not such a bad thing. Identify your future nucleus, as well as the pieces which must be translated into future commodities via trade (Lohse, Weathers, Hattenine etc...) and rebuild accordingly.
    And then the wheel keeps turning; another GM, another manager and on and on and on.

    How is it that we're so able to deduce the mind of Wayne Krivsky on Redszone? You wrote

    Wayne Krivsky has apparently once again convinced himself that the Reds 13-8 record in Pete's 21 games is indicative that he has a real contender on his hands for 2008 if he can just make a few tweaks.
    While you've qualified your statement with "apparently", but what are you basing this on? That no trades have happened as of yet? Folks here screamed bloody murder last year when WK jumped the gun with "The Trade" and now folks are chomping at the bit to get something done early.

    I would prefer a methodical approach that gives the Reds top value for their pieces. It's hard not to recognize the flaws in this team (bullpen, the bottom of the rotation, etc.), but the overall nucleus of this team isn't too bad. Now can it be improved? Absolutely! But I don't want to make trades just to be making trades - I want to solidify the team. And I certainly don't read inaction thus far to indicate nothing is happening. Remember, it takes two to tango.

  7. #7
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz View Post
    Remember, it takes two to tango.
    But only one to lead.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  8. #8
    Haunted by walks
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    We're looking at the team as a zero-sum process. To get a decent middle reliever, we have to give up a 40-home run hitter. There are teams that take the best of what they have and add to that.

  9. #9
    Member Stormy's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz View Post
    How is it that we're so able to deduce the mind of Wayne Krivsky on Redszone? While you've qualified your statement with "apparently", but what are you basing this on? That no trades have happened as of yet? Folks here screamed bloody murder last year when WK jumped the gun with "The Trade" and now folks are chomping at the bit to get something done early.
    I had hoped that the use of 'apparently' indicated the necessity of speculation. When you have a Front Office which refuses to reveal it's intent or designs, one is left to judge their intentions based upon their actions. To that end, I think your allusion to 'the trade' actually helps emphasize the premise that Wayne has difficulty reading the tea leaves accurately.

    Is it safe to say that Wayne's decision to 'buy' last deadline, indicated that he thought we were a Maj and Bray away from contending? That he thought our fast start April-May was the reality, and that our @20 game under .500 June-September was the mirage? Nevermind who he targetted, and how abysmally they failed.

    Is it safe to say that an offseason in which none of our primary trading chips were moved, in which he acquired and/or extended extensive veteran pitching help, and added Gonzo/Conine indicative of the fact that he again thought we were ready to contend 'as is' for the NL Central again in 2008? The trend towards utilizing any youth at all, came only as the veteran dregs imploded throughout the BP, bench, rotation, and as we slowly slouched towards last place and a managerial change.

    And now we approach yet another crossroads, as a last place team (with a paucity of youthful impact players on the immediate horizon, and a dearth of young pitching talent) approaching the trading deadline. It's a year in which we are getting unprecedented production out of veterans like Griffey and Weathers, coveted production clips from guys who aren't part of our future like Hatte, Conine and Lohse, and perhaps our last chance to maximize Adam Dunn's trade value (if we're not going to extend him).

    What direction are we headed? If there is little-to-no movement, then it appears that Wayne might think our recent flourish is indicative that he should keep this group intact to try to make a quick fix run at the volatile NL Central again next year. I've seen that movie twice during Wayne's tenure, and it has a real disappointing ending.

    Since we are an organization which refuses to divulge anything of substance about our designs for the future, I would love for a cohesive, coherent well formulated design to make itself present through our actions (as opposed to the mixed messages, stop gaps and half measures which our transactions often depict). Are we going to rebuild in the Indians model, are we going to renovate by keeping the core intact and trying to *seriously* upgrade areas of need via trade and F.A., or are we going to 'keep on keeping on' and hope that a few tweaks to Wayne's pet BP and defense pojects is all that's needed to turn this cellar dwelling team into contenders in 2008 and beyond?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz View Post
    I would prefer a methodical approach that gives the Reds top value for their pieces. It's hard not to recognize the flaws in this team (bullpen, the bottom of the rotation, etc.), but the overall nucleus of this team isn't too bad. Now can it be improved? Absolutely! But I don't want to make trades just to be making trades - I want to solidify the team. And I certainly don't read inaction thus far to indicate nothing is happening. Remember, it takes two to tango.
    I can agree with everything except the last 2 sentences of that, but I have to believe there is a good market for guys like Weathers, Lohse, Hatteberg given their performances (or recent performances in Lohse's case), and a secondary but strong market for a star slugger like Dunn (or Griffey)... but is there any will and vision from the Reds' leadership to radically transform the status quo?
    Last edited by Stormy; 07-27-2007 at 12:55 PM.

  10. #10
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stormy View Post
    Wayne Krivsky has apparently once again convinced himself that the Reds 13-8 record in Pete's 21 games is indicative that he has a real contender on his hands for 2008 if he can just make a few tweaks.
    I agree with your insights a majority of the time Stormy, but disagree with this.

    He came out and said that Pete is an interim manager and basically has very little chance at getting the job. Now Pete has done some tinkering/experimenting, which again, Krivksy told him to do. But just because the Reds have had a "spell" of winning under Pete, doesn't mean that Krivsky is somehow convinced they've turned the corner and that no changes need to be made.

    WE all know, and so does Krivsky, what this team needs (for the most part). Pitching.

    Prior to this dealine, what names of mid-to-top level pitchers have even been floated out there as being available? And at what asking price?

    I've read rumors that the Sox Garland can be had, but Kenny Williams' price is sky-high. The Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Mets, and Braves all have interest. The Braves had offered not only Renteria but a top pitching prospect, and still were rejected.

    KC's Dotel is available. And the Dodgers and Indians have expressed interest. But again, the asking price has been high, and he has a 5 Mil price tag for '07.

    The Tigers and Yankees are interested in Eric Gagne, but he has the right to veto a deal with either team, the Dallas Morning News reports. He likely will balk at any trade that doesn't guarantee him the closer's role or full value of his contract ($11 million).

    The Detroit Tigers are reportedly pursuing a deal to acquire Farnsworth from the Yankees. He makes 5.2 Mil this year, and is due 5.5 Mil in '08. But the Yanks aren't going to deal him unless they can find someone to fill that "hole".

    There is a possibility that the Orioles will shop Daniel Cabrera, the Baltimore Examiner reports. Despite a 7-10 record and 5.05 ERA, could he be an interesting pickup? And again, at what cost?

    IMHO, it just seems that a majority of team are looking for those high level pitching prospects (the future), rather then what they are seeing being floated around the majors.

    So that brings us to the Reds....

    What is Krivsky suppose to do when the commodity he is looking for in this market is thin, and every other team is out there trying to get what there is available, and more importantly.... will probably overpay/make huge sacrifices to get it.

    I look at what the Brewers just gave up for a reliever. The Padres added a significant amount of organizational pitching depth, while the Brewers got a struggling reliever who has been very homer-prone this year despite pitching in a terrible home run park, and he's about to become a free agent.

    Now looking at that Brewer deal, Lohse, due to this market, may fetch us something of worth. He has to be appealing to quite a few teams.

    But what other trading chips do we have that teams are showing interest in? IMHO, they can inquire all they want about Harang and Arroyo, but those boys shouldn't go anywhere.

    Adam Dunn? I've been following another "Dunn-like" player named Teixeria, who Texas says is available. Texas wants promising young talent in return for Teixeira. Mark makes 9 Mil this year, and is a FA after the '08 season. The Braves are considered the most likely destination, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports. A likely deal would bring catcher/first baseman Jarrod Saltalamacchia to Texas, along with a couple of prospects, perhaps a pitcher and an infielder.

    The Angels were the most recent to tweak their offer. The Angels had originally offered first baseman Casey Kotchman and a choice of outfield prospects Nathan Haynes or Terry Evans. It is believed they have now added a pitcher to the mix, but the level of pitcher could vary widely from a young prospect with a high ceiling (20-year-old right-hander Nick Adenhart) to an experienced but struggling major leaguer (recently demoted Ervin Santana) to a prospect on the verge of pitching in the majors (lefty Joe Saunders).

    So should we try to trade Dunn if we can get similar offers? I've read that what teams have shown interest in Dunn aren't offering much. Maybe they are thinking they can get him easily because the Reds would simply like to dump the contract, and his pending option year for 13 Mil? But any team that trades for him also realizes they are going to have to pony up the money, because he becomes a FA at the end of this season. That narrows the list of likely candidates. And again, what have they offered in return?

    Is this the right time to try and trade an Adam Dunn and expect to get a solid return?

    If we can trade a Weathers, Lohse, Hatteberg, and even a Stanton, and get a decent return, then I think Krivksy can (and will) do so. But they have until Tuesday. Maybe he's waiting for someone else, who is in contention and not finding what they need elsewhere, to panic and up the ante?

    I'd rather see that occur with other teams then us at this point.

    You're right that this team has some "inherent flaws" that need to be adressed. But at what cost?

    If the deals aren't there for some of these players mentioned above, then what is this FO suppose to do?
    Last edited by GAC; 07-29-2007 at 07:38 AM.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  11. #11
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    I have no idea what WK may or may not do and trying to guess is really a waste of effort. I guess we will have to wait and see.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  12. #12
    Member cumberlandreds's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Most trading isn't done until the day of the trading deadline or at most the day before. I would be patient and see what happens. I don't think anything major will happen but I think a deal or two involving Lohse,Hatteburg and/or Weathers will happen.
    Reds Fan Since 1971

  13. #13
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Even Baseball Weekly in all its diluted meanderings has pointed out that the market is the slowest it has been in years at this time.

    No one wants to part with cheap talent.. or potential cheap talent.

  14. #14
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Even Baseball Weekly in all its diluted meanderings has pointed out that the market is the slowest it has been in years at this time.

    No one wants to part with cheap talent.. or potential cheap talent.
    If I were the fan of a contending team that needed to fill some holes, I'd be livid.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  15. #15
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    If I were the fan of a contending team that needed to fill some holes, I'd be livid.
    If it wasn't you saying that M2 I'd probably respond by saying "how could you tell the difference? (except by the Reds W/L record)
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun


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