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Thread: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

  1. #16
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    If I were the fan of a contending team that needed to fill some holes, I'd be livid.
    I think the Reds will trade some guys, it's just going to be the Conine's and Lohse's and not the Griffey's and Dunn's.

    However the payback will likely be like the Linebrick return ML bodies for a weak organization.

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  3. #17
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Even Baseball Weekly in all its diluted meanderings has pointed out that the market is the slowest it has been in years at this time.

    No one wants to part with cheap talent.. or potential cheap talent.
    Bad luck for the Reds. They have some non-critical but valuable parts that, in other years, could be exchanged for younger cheaper parts.

    It will be interesting to see what WK can accomplish between now and 7/31. I'm not holding my breath though.

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  4. #18
    White Castle to the Nile Crash Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    If I were the fan of a contending team that needed to fill some holes, I'd be livid.
    Absolutely. It seems like the trend has been heading this way for a few years though. There aren't many GM's who want to give up young talent on the chance that it comes back to bite them. But championship banners fly forever. That's why they're playing this game, right?

    I would love to be an aggressive GM in this market. You could thrive just by doing your due diligence, targeting the players you need/want, and striking with confidence.

    On the other hand, if I'm sitting in the Reds position, and I've seen the way the market has gone at the deadline the last few years, I'm not giving my players away for peanuts just because it's expected of me. You want something, you're going to pay a fair price to get it, especially if it's players like Griffey & Dunn where I'm not just giving up talent and production for the rest of '07 and all of '08. I'm also giving up the chance to compete, and that's worth a hell of a lot.
    "I fought because I understood and could not bear to understand, that it was my destiny -- unlike that of my father, whose fate it was to hear the roar of the crowd -- to sit in the stands with most men and acclaim others. It was my fate, my destiny, my end, to be a fan."

  5. #19
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    So is the big question then, assuming the market is really that slow, is that a black on on Kriv for not moving the pieces, or just plain bad luck?
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  6. #20
    White Castle to the Nile Crash Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    So is the big question then, assuming the market is really that slow, is that a black on on Kriv for not moving the pieces, or just plain bad luck?
    After seeing the return for Linebrink, you could use that as proof in an argument that the market is not really slow.

    However, I see Linebrink as an outlier. He's received so much publicity as a "future closer" over the past few years that I believe his value was artificially inflated. I don't believe David Weathers would bring close to that kind of return in a trade.

    I don't think Krivsky should be making trades just to appease fans. If you're not getting anything of value in return why make the deal?

    Lohse and Conine should go unquestionably as neither of them will be here next year, and Conine deserves a chance to contribute to a contender if any want him. Stanton should go with the Reds paying a good chunk of his salary if anybody would agree to that.

    But guys like Hatteberg & Weathers should bring a fair return. Both are Reds property for '08, and both have played key roles. We should deal them for the right price, but we shouldn't feel any pressure to do so if the return is underwhelming.
    "I fought because I understood and could not bear to understand, that it was my destiny -- unlike that of my father, whose fate it was to hear the roar of the crowd -- to sit in the stands with most men and acclaim others. It was my fate, my destiny, my end, to be a fan."

  7. #21
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    What happens if Krivsky is doing the right thing? If you have one trading partner and only one club interested in a certain player then the return isn't going to be as much. If you have multiple of trading partners then your return increases. The later the season goes and the more desparate teams get the bigger return you will get for certain players. The Reds can't give up Dunn and get noting in return. They need a good return in order to move Dunn especially when you have him basically under contract for next year.

  8. #22
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    The Reds can't give up Dunn and get noting in return.
    True. If the Reds trade him, it has to be a deal they can't refuse.

    They can be more flexible with Lohse, Conine and Weathers. There should be appealing deals out there for those guys.

    Jr.'s the real interesting trading chip, at least to me. He's having a fine year, he's still a huge name and he's got a year and two months left on his contract. Somebody's got to want that guy.
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  9. #23
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    True. If the Reds trade him, it has to be a deal they can't refuse.

    They can be more flexible with Lohse, Conine and Weathers. There should be appealing deals out there for those guys.

    Jr.'s the real interesting trading chip, at least to me. He's having a fine year, he's still a huge name and he's got a year and two months left on his contract. Somebody's got to want that guy.

    I disagree somewhat about Weathers. While I don't want Weathers to be the closer next year I have doubts as to whether they can bring someone better in for the money he's slotted next year.

    I'm OK with trading him, I just want a good return.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  10. #24
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    I disagree somewhat about Weathers. While I don't want Weathers to be the closer next year I have doubts as to whether they can bring someone better in for the money he's slotted next year.

    I'm OK with trading him, I just want a good return.
    I'd want a good return too, but a good return might look something like Aaron Harang in 2003. It doesn't have to be a blue chip prospect.

    In general my take on Weathers is it's probably better to trade him a year too early. I'd be surprised if none of the contending would be willing to pony up a return for Weathers that could pique the Reds' interest.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  11. #25
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    I'm OK with trading him, I just want a good return.
    "Good Return" is exactly the problem -- the lists of "untouchable" players to ask for in trades seems to get longer every year for teams. When the conversation starts with a guy you really don't want and ends with another guy you don't really want, whats the point of talking at all?
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  12. #26
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    From today's Baseball Prospectus:
    "The Reds have decided not to trade center fielder Ken Griffey Jr., while no team has been willing to meet their high asking price for left fielder Adam Dunn."

    The article discusses how Mark Texiera is the most sought after 'big bat'. I think it is wise to wait till Texiera is traded. Dunn is one of the next biggest options, and interest in him may go way up among the teams that don't land Texiera. Of course, if a Texiera deal goes down to the wire, there might not be enough time left to put anyhting good together. It is likely that the pace will pick up, and once everyone knows where a couple of the bigger names are going, there will be a scramble to pick up the remaining players like Conine, Stanton, Lohse, etc.
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  13. #27
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    I disagree somewhat about Weathers. While I don't want Weathers to be the closer next year I have doubts as to whether they can bring someone better in for the money he's slotted next year.

    I'm OK with trading him, I just want a good return.
    Weathers will have to be replaced the same way he was acquired, just like Todd Jones. Both were circling the drain when the Reds got them, and both managed to find new life in the November of their careers.

    In other words, the Reds will have to get very lucky. A third time.

    Of course, why bother keeping him around to save 25-30 games if the team is only going to win 70?
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  14. #28
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    Weathers will have to be replaced the same way he was acquired, just like Todd Jones. Both were circling the drain when the Reds got them, and both managed to find new life in the November of their careers.

    In other words, the Reds will have to get very lucky. A third time.

    Of course, why bother keeping him around to save 25-30 games if the team is only going to win 70?
    If this team only wins 70 games next year you can be pretty sure it isn't going to be because of Weathers. They have enough issues that unless they get a great return for him I'd rather they keep him.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  15. #29
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    Weathers will have to be replaced the same way he was acquired, just like Todd Jones. Both were circling the drain when the Reds got them, and both managed to find new life in the November of their careers.

    In other words, the Reds will have to get very lucky. A third time.

    Of course, why bother keeping him around to save 25-30 games if the team is only going to win 70?
    So we don't lose 120?
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  16. #30
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    Of course, why bother keeping him around to save 25-30 games if the team is only going to win 70?
    Because without him, in your scenario, we'd only win 45 or 50 games.

    I've never understood the idea that unless we are going to go to the world series some players are not "worth it". Even in the years you likely aren't going to be much of a team, you still have to go out and play the games and someone has to take the mound. Even though you might not be WS bound, why not make a good show of it and do the best you can?

    Don't get me wrong, if they can get a good return for Weathers, I'd trade him in a heartbeat. I'd much rather some other team worry about whether he'll recreate the magic in 2008 or fall apart. But I wouldn't unload him simply because we might not be a world-class team in 2008.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate


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