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Thread: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

  1. #46
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    And you base your opinion that BCast is clueless on what? 18 months of ownership and we aren't in the world series?

    All isn't perfect in Redsland by any strech of the imgaine, but it's a little early to damn the ownership and FO to "utter imcomptence" because they haven't unraveled years long tangle of rot and neglect.
    I base it on quotes where says he's impatient about winning and thinks that this club can compete quickly. I say it based on how disappointed he was in this year's failure when every reasonable projection showed this team as a 70-74 win team.

    Yes, "clueless" is probably hyperbole. However, I do think that it is likely that he seriously underestimates just how far the Reds organization is from being comparable to ones like Cleveland, Oakland, and Minnesota.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 07-27-2007 at 04:50 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #47
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I base it on quotes where says he's impatient about winning and thinks that this club can compete quickly. I say it based on how disappointed he was in this year's failure when every reasonable projection showed this team as a 70-74 win team.

    Yes, "clueless" is probably hyperbole. However, I do think that it is likely that he seriously underestimates just how far the Reds organization is from being comparable to ones like Cleveland, Oakland, and Minnesota.
    Right, because we're only now assessing how big a hole we were in and figuring the best way out. Ropes are cheap, but they break; ladders are more expensive and sometimes tip over and the hovercraft is freaking expensive.
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  4. #48
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Essentially Cast has messed around for 1.5 years now. He needs to clean up his act if he wants a up and comer GM to rebuild the Reds.

  5. #49
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by Aronchis View Post
    Essentially Cast has messed around for 1.5 years now. He needs to clean up his act if he wants a up and comer GM to rebuild the Reds.
    Therein lies the rub. Many of us have said over and over and over again, that these things take time. And yet there are folks ready to remake the manage, remake the GM, declare the owner incompetent simply because we don't see significant moves being made.

    I pointed out earlier that Detroit over the last four to five years made many moves similar to what Krivsky has done in the last year and a half. They only last year finally crawled out of the .265 record they had in 2003 (a 43-119 record!). And yet every Conine move or Gonzalez move or not cutting this guy or that is proof of piddling around, etc. etc. etc.

    I know it's opinion, but few bandy that around; they treat it as fact.

    The reality of it is, these things take time; it's a slow methodical process. Rome wasn't built in a day, etc. History could ultimately prove you all right that Castellini and Krivsky are dopes, but it's way too early to know that with any degree of certainty.

  6. #50
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz
    Therein lies the rub. Many of us have said over and over and over again, that these things take time. And yet there are folks ready to remake the manage, remake the GM, declare the owner incompetent simply because we don't see significant moves being made.
    "These things take time" is quite different than sitting on your hands while opportunity may be passing you by. Krivsky has some decent opportunities right now. What he does or doesn't do will be very telling.

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz View Post
    ...

    I pointed out earlier that Detroit over the last four to five years made many moves similar to what Krivsky has done in the last year and a half. They only last year finally crawled out of the .265 record they had in 2003 (a 43-119 record!). And yet every Conine move or Gonzalez move or not cutting this guy or that is proof of piddling around, etc. etc. etc.

    I know it's opinion, but few bandy that around; they treat it as fact.

    The reality of it is, these things take time; it's a slow methodical process. Rome wasn't built in a day, etc. History could ultimately prove you all right that Castellini and Krivsky are dopes, but it's way too early to know that with any degree of certainty.
    The Tigers had to take historic lumps in order to approach their current state. Of course, 4-5 years of top 4 draft spots is a good way to build a farm system.

    What I'm seeing from Reds fans is the desire to rebuild without having to go through that rough patch. I don't think it's going to happen. Telling yourself that the Reds are only a couple of players away is delusional, IMO.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  7. #51
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    That I'm seeing from Reds fans is the desire to rebuild without having to go through that rough patch. I don't think it's going to happen. Telling yourself that the Reds are only a couple of players away is delusional, IMO.
    This isn't a rough time? I agree that we're not "a couple of players" away, but I like our core.

  8. #52
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    So is the big question then, assuming the market is really that slow, is that a black on on Kriv for not moving the pieces, or just plain bad luck?

    Good GMs make their own luck. We've seen reports of there being a market for Lohse, Hat, and Conine. So move them for what you can. Those are three guys that clearly aren't part of the future. Take a flyer on a couple of A ball guys with tools if you have to. Just don't pick up 30 year old AAA guys.

    Wayne should also aggressively try to dump Stanton for $$ relief next year. I don't care what we get back. I'd even take another bad contract if it expires at the end of the eyar.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  9. #53
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    For those who want rebuilding instead of a win-now approach, I still have the feeling that this is what rebuilding looks like.

    I'm tempted to say, "Look at the record; you can't call that winning now," but Wayne has been accused of trying to win now, but failing.

    I don't expect a new owner to go to extremes in either direction, boosting the payroll to $100 million or dropping it to $30 million.

    It's more of a balancing act. And I wouldn't be surprised if Castellini is 70-30 win now and Krivsky is 60-40 rebuilding.

    The Marlins have perfected the approaching of clearcutting the major league team and growing a new World Series contender in four or five years. But I'm not sure the Reds could afford four years of drawing 14,000 a game.

    One thing I am sure of is that the Reds are no longer in fire sale mode. They might not go after the most expensive players, but they don't have to get rid of players to meet a certain much lower payroll figure. That's one reason Krivsky can sit back on some of these deals.

    What does rebuilding look like to you? Who would be gone if the Reds were truly rebuilding in your eyes? Would you trust Krivsky to take the payroll as it is now, dump the present players and reconstruct a different roster with the same money?

    It would be kind of crazy if the fans started protesting: Stop trying to win. Rebuild more, win less. The proprietor of Firemackanin.com would be interviewed on local TV and he'd call for the manager's dismissal for winning too many games. Play Anderson Macado instead of Keppinger. Play Dewayne Wise instead of Adam Dunn. Your will to win is hurting the organization ...

  10. #54
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    For those who want rebuilding instead of a win-now approach, I still have the feeling that this is what rebuilding looks like.

    I'm tempted to say, "Look at the record; you can't call that winning now," but Wayne has been accused of trying to win now, but failing.

    What does rebuilding look like to you? Who would be gone if the Reds were truly rebuilding in your eyes? Would you trust Krivsky to take the payroll as it is now, dump the present players and reconstruct a different roster with the same money?
    I think "rebuilding" involves a tear down of the core players who look like the mid-term future. In this team's case that would mean Dunn, Harang, Arroyo, Phillips, EdE and Hamilton (along with Bailey, Cueto, Bruce and Votto).

    IMO "win now" means keeping the guys with no long term value to the roster. In this case that would include Griffey, Weathers, Lohse, Stanton, Conine, Hatte and supplementing with "stopgaps" in the like of Ross, Gonzalez, and IMO Freel. Adding more "stopgaps" is an indication of "Win Now" IMO.

    I really am for something in the middle. This team should be playing for "Win during our Window of Opportunity" which could be as early as 2008 but more likley 2009 to 2011. There is a lot of money that is going to free up in the next couple of years. $16 Million plus of this year's payroll is going to players who are currently not on the roster, who's contracts expire and will be immediately freed-up. This is $16 Million before a single move is made involving any players in the "no long term value" or "stopgap" groups above.

    I think the right approach to is sell off the "no future value guys" (including Griffey) and acquire as many young guys for the mix as possible. If some of those young guys happen to play a position currently manned by a "stopgap" all the better. That would make that particular "stopgap" a guy that could be sold off as well.

    I realize that there are a number of pre-negotiated raises in effect starting in 2008 and going-up from there. That is why its so important IMO to acquire cheap role players and hopefully cheap (yet still effective) replacements for the dollar rising role players ("stopgaps") already here.

    Next, use the freed-up salary space to go after some impact pitching. Free Agency has limited options, but I'd go hard for the top starter and a few of the top bull pen guys. I'd look to take on a contract from another team with with my created wiggle room and would offer up lower minors guys and even a core minor leaguer or two if need be (but not too many). I'd lock-up Dunn through 2011 (or 2012 if an extra year is required to get a deal done - Dunn will still be just 32 at the end of the 2012 season). Dunn is the only core player that the Reds don't control through the window of opportunity years.

    This team has enough payroll to pay its productive players. What the team can not do is pay $16 Million to guys who aren't on the roster and it can't be paying role players and stop gaps $4 or $5 Million per year as they currently are with Lohse, and soon will be with Ross, Gonzalez and Freel. At least by my definition, it isn't a rebuild because I'd keep the core intact. But the near term defections should be moved with an eye toward replacing the stop gaps with young cheap talent to fill those roles. Use the money for impact guys.
    Last edited by mth123; 07-29-2007 at 07:17 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  11. #55
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Duplicate. Sorry.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  12. #56
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stormy View Post
    Wayne Krivsky has apparently once again convinced himself that the Reds 13-8 record in Pete's 21 games is indicative that he has a real contender on his hands for 2008 if he can just make a few tweaks.
    I agree with your insights a majority of the time Stormy, but disagree with this.

    He came out and said that Pete is an interim manager and basically has very little chance at getting the job. Now Pete has done some tinkering/experimenting, which again, Krivksy told him to do. But just because the Reds have had a "spell" of winning under Pete, doesn't mean that Krivsky is somehow convinced they've turned the corner and that no changes need to be made.

    WE all know, and so does Krivsky, what this team needs (for the most part). Pitching.

    Prior to this dealine, what names of mid-to-top level pitchers have even been floated out there as being available? And at what asking price?

    I've read rumors that the Sox Garland can be had, but Kenny Williams' price is sky-high. The Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Mets, and Braves all have interest. The Braves had offered not only Renteria but a top pitching prospect, and still were rejected.

    KC's Dotel is available. And the Dodgers and Indians have expressed interest. But again, the asking price has been high, and he has a 5 Mil price tag for '07.

    The Tigers and Yankees are interested in Eric Gagne, but he has the right to veto a deal with either team, the Dallas Morning News reports. He likely will balk at any trade that doesn't guarantee him the closer's role or full value of his contract ($11 million).

    The Detroit Tigers are reportedly pursuing a deal to acquire Farnsworth from the Yankees. He makes 5.2 Mil this year, and is due 5.5 Mil in '08. But the Yanks aren't going to deal him unless they can find someone to fill that "hole".

    There is a possibility that the Orioles will shop Daniel Cabrera, the Baltimore Examiner reports. Despite a 7-10 record and 5.05 ERA, could he be an interesting pickup? And again, at what cost?

    IMHO, it just seems that a majority of team are looking for those high level pitching prospects (the future), rather then what they are seeing being floated around the majors.

    So that brings us to the Reds....

    What is Krivsky suppose to do when the commodity he is looking for in this market is thin, and every other team is out there trying to get what there is available, and more importantly.... will probably overpay/make huge sacrifices to get it.

    I look at what the Brewers just gave up for a reliever. The Padres added a significant amount of organizational pitching depth, while the Brewers got a struggling reliever who has been very homer-prone this year despite pitching in a terrible home run park, and he's about to become a free agent.

    Now looking at that Brewer deal, Lohse, due to this market, may fetch us something of worth. He has to be appealing to quite a few teams.

    But what other trading chips do we have that teams are showing interest in? IMHO, they can inquire all they want about Harang and Arroyo, but those boys shouldn't go anywhere.

    Adam Dunn? I've been following another "Dunn-like" player named Teixeria, who Texas says is available. Texas wants promising young talent in return for Teixeira. Mark makes 9 Mil this year, and is a FA after the '08 season. The Braves are considered the most likely destination, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports. A likely deal would bring catcher/first baseman Jarrod Saltalamacchia to Texas, along with a couple of prospects, perhaps a pitcher and an infielder.

    The Angels were the most recent to tweak their offer. The Angels had originally offered first baseman Casey Kotchman and a choice of outfield prospects Nathan Haynes or Terry Evans. It is believed they have now added a pitcher to the mix, but the level of pitcher could vary widely from a young prospect with a high ceiling (20-year-old right-hander Nick Adenhart) to an experienced but struggling major leaguer (recently demoted Ervin Santana) to a prospect on the verge of pitching in the majors (lefty Joe Saunders).

    So should we try to trade Dunn if we can get similar offers? I've read that what teams have shown interest in Dunn aren't offering much. Maybe they are thinking they can get him easily because the Reds would simply like to dump the contract, and his pending option year for 13 Mil? But any team that trades for him also realizes they are going to have to pony up the money, because he becomes a FA at the end of this season. That narrows the list of likely candidates. And again, what have they offered in return?

    Is this the right time to try and trade an Adam Dunn and expect to get a solid return?

    If we can trade a Weathers, Lohse, Hatteberg, and even a Stanton, and get a decent return, then I think Krivksy can (and will) do so. But they have until Tuesday. Maybe he's waiting for someone else, who is in contention and not finding what they need elsewhere, to panic and up the ante?

    I'd rather see that occur with other teams then us at this point.

    You're right that this team has some "inherent flaws" that need to be adressed. But at what cost?

    If the deals aren't there for some of these players mentioned above, then what is this FO suppose to do?
    Last edited by GAC; 07-29-2007 at 07:38 AM.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  13. #57
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Not looking like a big makeover is coming.

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Yes, "clueless" is probably hyperbole. However, I do think that it is likely that he seriously underestimates just how far the Reds organization is from being comparable to ones like Cleveland, Oakland, and Minnesota.
    Teams with solid farm systems in place. How long should Cast/Kriv be allowed to rebuild (stock) this farm system?
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations


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