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Thread: Et tu BP?

  1. #1
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Et tu BP?

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...cleid=6504#WAS

    Signed 2B-R Ronnie Belliard to a two-year, $3.5 million contract extension. [7/23]

    Now, that's not a bad thing, and Belliard's an adequate enough placeholder, but the interesting wrinkle that might come from this is what it might mean for the club's plans for Lopez. Try as he might, Lopez just isn't ever going to be an asset in the field at short, and his offensive value basically evaporated as soon as he left the Great American Ballpark. Would you give a defensive zero with a sub-.300 OBP and negligible power anything close to last year's arbitration-generated $3.9 million? Or would you non-tender him, keep your fingers crossed that Cristian Guzman has something left to offer, and in the meantime go shake the glove tree to see if you might not get some sort of slick-fielding journeyman? You'd wind up spending less on the Brand X shortstop and Belliard combined than you will have to if you try and keep Lopez.
    One year ago.

    Then there's exchanging their one-year rental of Clayton for a couple of years or more of Lopez. Defensively, we've already dealt with how this is closer to a push than some people will want to admit, and offensively, it's a win-now, win-later, keep winning exchange that gives the Nats a shortstop who can lead off, get on base well enough, slug a bit, and run well. Among current shortstops, his VORP ranks twelfth, not as good as a budding star like Jose Reyes, but not a huge step down, and in a division where the other four teams are fielding some of the better hitters at short, an effective response in kind. Like Kearns, he's a May of '80 baby, so he's just now entering his prime as a hitter. Even if he's not an asset afield, he's playing in a park that gives pitchers plenty of space to make mistakes yet survive unscathed, and that makes his occasional boot that much more affordable.

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  3. #2
    White Castle to the Nile Crash Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Et tu BP?

    Good find, woy!

    "I fought because I understood and could not bear to understand, that it was my destiny -- unlike that of my father, whose fate it was to hear the roar of the crowd -- to sit in the stands with most men and acclaim others. It was my fate, my destiny, my end, to be a fan."

  4. #3
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Et tu BP?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...cleid=6504#WAS

    Signed 2B-R Ronnie Belliard to a two-year, $3.5 million contract extension. [7/23]



    One year ago.

    Did the same person write both articles?
    The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.

    http://www.facebook.com/pages/Rally-...24872650873160

  5. #4
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Et tu BP?

    Let's send them Gonzalez...
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

    http://dalmady.blogspot.com

  6. #5
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Et tu BP?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    Did the same person write both articles?
    Yep, jumping peer groups from Jose Reyes to Christin Guzman in a year

  7. #6
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Et tu BP?

    They're so talking out both sides of their rumps w/out ever giving Krivsky any credit for possibly recognizing that Lopez was what he is.

    I don't think I'm re-upping my subscription next year.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  8. #7
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Et tu BP?

    This is a really good thread.

    Something that few have really reflected on is that since the trade it has become pretty clear that Lopez and Kearns' abilities were greatly overstated by the average person here (including muself). At this point, it's pretty apparent that their offensive games were built by GABP. Both have middling power. Of course, they are in RFK which does hurt their numbers, but if they were particulary valuable then the park they play in shouldn't turn them into useless players.

    Considering contracts, both Kearns and Lopez likely have negative trade value right now. I can tell you that given the opportunity, I would not want to pay them at their current rates (especially Kearns who basically is owed 14M over the next 2 seasons).

    Basically what I'm saying is that I think Krivsky looked at these 2 guys and thought they were players overvalued due to GABP and were not worth their current upcoming contracts, and as such were players that needed to be moved. The return looked pretty awful at the time of the trade, but I think the true value of these 2 players was quite small and as such, I doubt the Reds were really going to get players that would have really helped last year.

    The main problem was that it was a trade that was designed to help the team last season. The relievers the Reds received were not of use last season and with Kearns and Lopez on board the Reds would have been a better team down the stretch and perhaps grabbed a playoff spot.

    The benefit of the trade, was that the Reds are now better off long term. Those 2 guys are not worth their contracts, while the Reds still have Bray, who IMO will be a useful late inning bullpen arm in the near future.

    So what I'm really saying is that the timing of the trade has really become the biggest negative. I think the Reds could have made a similar trade (if not the same one) in the offseason. Considering they would have continued playing in Cincy for the remainder of the year, I bet they could have moved them to DC for Bray and Majewski in the offseason. The trade was a dud for it's main purpose last season of fixing the bullpen and making a playoff push, but for the 2007 and beyond, it's actually gained the Reds budget flexibility (which got Gonzalez who at this point is a better SS than Lopez IMO and an array of mostly trash) plus a useful arm in Bray (and perhaps Thompson). However, so far, Krivsky hasn't done a particularly great job of capatalizing on the money saved.


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