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Thread: Interesting Enquirer Article about Dunn

  1. #1
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Interesting Enquirer Article about Dunn

    This article sums up exactly how I feel about Dunn. Key graphs:

    The math: To get into contention next year, the Reds must score at least 50 more runs than they allow. The runs scored/runs allowed stat can predict to within five victories either way how many games a team is going to win. The very best teams (95-plus wins) will score 100 more runs than they allow.

    Given everybody's present pace, the Reds will score about 770 runs this season. The problem is that at the current rate, the Reds will allow about 815 runs. That ratio projects to a 77-85 win-loss record. The team needs to flip that ratio to make things interesting next season.
    As we say in traditional counterpoint class, IV-I (a plagal cadence indicating the part of hymn where everyone sings "A-men!"

    If they trade Dunn, they will need considerably more output from guys like Hamilton, Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper, Edwin Encarnacion and Brandon Phillips. If the Reds get that output, they barely will be able to make up for the loss of Dunn's offense.

    Then - and here's the point - the pitching staff and defense would have to allow 130 fewer runs to have a shot at 90 wins, which is a reasonable number for winning the National League Central Division.

    However, if the Reds keep Dunn and the other players improve as much as hoped (Freel and Hopper wouldn't get as much playing time as they would if Dunn weren't here), then the Reds would need to reduce their runs allowed by only 60 to reach 90 wins.
    That's really the whole point. Dunn has been pretty instrumental in keeping us from constantly seeing the Pirates derriere in the standings.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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  3. #2
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Interesting Enquirer Article about Dunn

    I really enjoyed reading this in today's Enquirer. It's the first time, in a very long time, that I've seen this much thought and intelligence there, rather than just reading about fan favorites and the "scrappiness factor."

    I would love to see more of this in the main stream media!

    There's also this, by John Erardi:

    Why batting average with RISP is meaningless:

    Citing hitters' batting averages with runners in scoring position (RISP) is an oft-quoted thing around Major League Baseball.


    Turns out, it means almost nothing.

    For a career, most batters hit within a few points of their overall average with RISP. Even Hall of Famer Tony Perez, known as a great clutch hitter, hit only five points higher with RISP (.284) than his overall average (.279).

    The fifth-place Reds are hitting better with RISP than the first-place New York Mets.

    The Los Angeles Dodgers are hitting a whopping .291 with RISP (13 points higher than their overall average) yet have scored fewer runs than the Reds.

    And don't suggest that it's harder to hit with RISP. The NL overall batting average is .261; with RISP, it's .260.

    What does matter is how many opportunities a team gets with RISP. That is a result of on-base average, which includes walks. The Reds are second-to-last in the league, with 754 at-bats with RISP. The Phillies, who are hitting nine points lower with RISP than they are hitting overall, lead the league in runs scored because they have good hitters and also are tops with 921 at-bats with RISP. If the Reds had as many opportunities as the Phillies, they would have 37 more runs, even if they hit only .220 with RISP. And that would be good for four more wins.

    Conclusion? When the Reds consider trades and other acquisitions, they should take a hard look at the new guy's on-base average.

    What's hurting the Reds isn't all those home runs and strikeouts; it's all those low OBAs (David Ross, Alex Gonzalez, Ryan Freel, Brandon Phillips and Jeff Conine).

    And, of course, poor pitching and defense and a weak bench.

  4. #3
    Reds 5:11 coachw513's Avatar
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    Re: Interesting Enquirer Article about Dunn

    I sleepily thought for a minute my browser had landed at RZ instead of the Enquirer...really well laid out statistical argument for keeping Dunn here...does anyone here actually know if John Erardi actually exists???...maybe he's just a moniker used by an ORG poster, cause that article is straight from "Dunn Should be Valued More Around here!"


    You cannot defeat an ignorant man in an argument!
    -William Gibbs McAdoo

    Though many of us here are sure trying

  5. #4
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Interesting Enquirer Article about Dunn

    About time!!!

    John Erardi

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    Haunted by walks
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    Re: Interesting Enquirer Article about Dunn

    Quote Originally Posted by coachw513 View Post
    I sleepily thought for a minute my browser had landed at RZ instead of the Enquirer...really well laid out statistical argument for keeping Dunn here...does anyone here actually know if John Erardi actually exists???...maybe he's just a moniker used by an ORG poster, cause that article is straight from "Dunn Should be Valued More Around here!"
    I have met him in person and he signed a copy of "Opening Day," so I'm pretty confident he exists. Although he could still be a member of RedsZone with a secret identity.

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    Re: Interesting Enquirer Article about Dunn

    It's just going to start another stats debate, but let me say the problem is, as it almost always is in these debates, the difference between looking at how to score the most runs in a season and how to score one more run than your opponent in a given game. Those are two different things.

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    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: Interesting Enquirer Article about Dunn

    Quote Originally Posted by osuceltic View Post
    It's just going to start another stats debate, but let me say the problem is, as it almost always is in these debates, the difference between looking at how to score the most runs in a season and how to score one more run than your opponent in a given game. Those are two different things.
    If that made a significant difference, Pythagorus wouldn't work. But it does work at a frighteningly accurate rate, which basically means that overall runs scored verus overall runs against is what matters. "How and when" runs scored is always brought up as an argument against it, but if there were teams that somehow managed to score fewer runs, but score them at the right times, they would consistently have more wins thatn Pythagorus predicted. The reverse is true as well. If there were teams that scored a lot of runs, but at the wrong time, you'd see teams consistently underperforming Pythagorus. This just doesn't happen enough or with any predictability or consistency to validate that assertion.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

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    Re: Interesting Enquirer Article about Dunn

    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    I have met him in person and he signed a copy of "Opening Day," so I'm pretty confident he exists. Although he could still be a member of RedsZone with a secret identity.
    He signed mine as well.

    O'Toole too.

  10. #9
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Interesting Enquirer Article about Dunn

    I enjoyed the article. The basic premise was that trading Dunn would create a void that would make achieving the run differential necessary to win at least 90 games in '08 much more difficult than if the Reds kept him. I don't necessarily agree with this premise.

    First, basically the Reds probably need to score between 50 and 100 runs more than they allow in order to be considered contenders in their division. There are many ways to get there. Erardi basically assumed the offense would be static and the difference would have to be made up on the RA side. Why is it impossible to increase the RS side while decreasing the RA simultaneously? The Reds might be expected to gain 30 runs next season just by having EE improve, Hamilton getting more PA's and Votto being promoted to at least a platoon situation. If Bruce earns a roster spot, he gives the defense probably another 10 runs (as Dunn's replacement his glove would be significant enough to basically ignore his bat if he struggles). Also, there is the possibility that Homer solidifies the back end of the rotation and Cueto explodes onto the scene as a high leverage bullpen arm.

    Second, another thing the article seems to ignore is that someone will indeed be in left field if the Reds trade Dunn. Here's what I mean.

    By trading Dunn, it's actually the difference between Dunn's overall value relative to the overall value of a replacement level left fielder that would need to replaced (defined as basically freely available talent that any major league team could basically stick out there). For a left fielder, that player would be expected to have a bat that produced at 80% of league average while playing at least league average defense.

    Pecota thinks Dunn will be roughly a four win bat relative to replacement in '08 (VORP=42). That's a pretty tall order to replace tit for tat. But play-by-play based metrics think Dunn is likely a -15 to -25 defender. Other metrics like him a little better so conservatively Dunn might be a -10 to -20 defender depending upon whether he's having a good year or a bad one. So his overall effect on the Reds RS/RA equation might be expected to really be something like 20 to 30 runs in the Reds favor. That's really the amount of production the Reds would have to figure out a way to replace to fill the void left by Dunn's departure because, in reality, someone will be in left field.

    Now consider that the Reds would get production back in trade for Dunn and presumably will be able to buy additional production with his saved salary on admittedly what probably is a thin FA market. While it's impossible to analyze specifics given all of the possibilities, scenarios where the Reds could make headway on the RS/RA equation by trading Dunn can be envisioned. Certainly, an overwhelming case can't be made that Dunn is irreplaceable. Given Dunn's salary, a smart FO could be expected to flip Dunn and come out ahead. Note, I'm not arguing that this FO has that talent and also note that I'm on record as thinking Dunn's '08 at $13M is less risky that trusting this FO to turnover the roster.

    That said, trading Dunn doesn't have to doom the immediate hopes of the Reds IMHO. It's just something you do with forethought and preferably a plan.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #10
    Member harangatang's Avatar
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    Re: Interesting Enquirer Article about Dunn

    An intelligent article.

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    Re: Interesting Enquirer Article about Dunn

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    This article sums up exactly how I feel about Dunn. Key graphs



    That's really the whole point. Dunn has been pretty instrumental in keeping us from constantly seeing the Pirates derriere in the standings.
    Article seems to assume Reds won't add any significant offensive players. Reds have Jay Bruce coming up. Reds could acquire other offensive players in trades and free agency. Reds could completely change the offensive team so many of the guys mentioned in the article would be replaced.

    Nobody says that the Reds should just dump Adam Dunn and never worry about offense again. The question is whether it make sense to devote 13 plus million for one more year of Dunn, then followed by free agency, or whether Reds are better off getting some players in return now and redeploying the money.

    Article is certainly correct that Dunn would leave an offensive void. Question is whether Reds can get better pitching and still be able to fill Dunn's void, at least partially, using his salary slot and through trades.

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Interesting Enquirer Article about Dunn

    John Erardi is one smart fella.

  14. #13
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Interesting Enquirer Article about Dunn

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    John Erardi is one smart fella.
    He had plenty of help writing that article.

  15. #14
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Interesting Enquirer Article about Dunn

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He had plenty of help writing that article.
    He was smart enough to do the research and not to lazy to just believe everything he hears on radio like some writers do.


  16. #15
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Interesting Enquirer Article about Dunn

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    He was smart enough to do the research and not to lazy to just believe everything he hears on radio like some writers do.

    Very true. He took plenty of initiative to do his job. Something I wish more beat writers would go in Cincinnati (Dayton too) at times.


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