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Thread: Future reds outfielders in the next 5 years

  1. #1
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    Future reds outfielders in the next 5 years

    I am aware there has been frequent references to trading Dunn and Griffey. There is a high probability one or both of our starting outfielders might not be on the team 2 years from now, so I have decided to create an exhaustive thread dedicated to the future prospects who might be taking their place in the outfield. I am aware some might put this thread in Minor League Report, but I decided to put it in The Sun Deck because all of these prospects have the potential(in my opinion) to one day be starting outfielders for the Cincinnati Reds. I will cover AAA to A the outfielders I think are playing well enough to one day start:

    1. AAA
    a. Jay Bruce- All Reds outfield prospects should start with Jay Bruce. I will quote 2 years stats for each prospect, , and then summarize. 2007:100 games, 394 AB,71 Runs,126 hits,36 doubles,8 triples,19 hrs,74 rbis,235 total bases, 38 bb, 102 so's, 6 sb, 6 cs, .320 BA,.380 OBP, .596 slugging
    2006:117 games, 444 AB, 69 runs,129 hits, 42 2b, 5 3b,16 hr,81 rbi, 229 total bases,44 walks,106 strikeouts, 19 sb,9 cs, .355obp, .516 slg. It is clear Jay Bruce will be a starting outfielder in the Reds outfield fairly soon, but an objective critic could spot a few holes. He doesn't walk a whole lot, but he has a high OBP because of his outstanding BA. He also did not steal as much last year, as he did last year. 19 sb and 9 cs to 6 and 6 this year. Still , he would seem to be an outstanding player in the future.
    This is taking longer than I thought, so I will create this thread in stages. I have done Jay Bruce tonight, so I will work on Chris Dickerson next time. Both of them have the potential in my opinion to be starters in Cincinnati fairly soon, but Chris is more a work in progress. It might take him several years at Louisville before he has developed enough to be a legitimate starting outfielder. I will start on Chris tonight by quoting this year's 2007 stats
    b. Chris Dickerson: 2007-107 games, 373 Ab, 47 runs, 99 hits, 12 2b, 6 3b, 9 hr ,41 rbi, 150 tb, 46 bb, 129 so, 24 sb, ,.265 BA,.353 obp., .402 slg.

    One final thing before I stop on Chris tonight: You may have noticed I never once mentioned OPS. There is a very good reason for this. I have previously mentioned I am not one to use this stat, so I will leave it to my readers(if any) to calculate OPS from OBP and Slugging.
    2006-115 games, 389 AB, 65 runs, 94 hits,21 2b, 7 3b, 12 hrs, 48 rbi, 165 total bases, 65 walks, 129 strikeouts, 21 sb, 6 cs, .242 Ba,.355 obp, .424 slugging

    Chris Dickerson is a very young outfielder(20 years) who has made it to AAA rather quick. He has progressed a lot from last year.He seems to be a hitter who is a good base runner(24 steals) but who strikes out too much(129 strikeouts already). He has raised his batting average to.265, and is a prospect who can become a leadoff hitter if he can learn to cut down on the strikeouts.I have also heard he is outstanding at defense.

    2.AA- Sadly, we really have no true prospects at AA.

    3. Sarasota
    a. Daniel Dorn -This is a very talented prospect . I believe he will be a player to watch. He has already jumped from Billings to Sarasota, and before long should be at Chatanooga.
    2007 stats: 89 games,327 ab,47 runs,93 hits,21 2b, 1 3b, 12 hrs,65 rbi, 152 total bases,30 walks, 66 so, 3 stolen bases, 1 cs, .361 obp, .284 BA,.465 slugging.
    2006 stats- 60 games, 206 ab, 48 runs, 73 hits, 17 2b, 2 3b, 8 hr., 40 rbi, 118 total bases, 36 walks, 36 strikeouts,3 sb,.354 BA, .457 obp, .573 slugging. Of course, he spent 2006 at Billings
    Summary: Daniel Dorn is a talented prospect who is quite a way from Cincinnati, but is a prospect to keep an eye on.

    4. Dayton- There are really 2 prospects to keep an eye on. I will start with the one most of you will be familiar with
    a. Drew Stubbs- Drew has really heated up lately, and has shown signs of the prospect we expected.
    2007 stats- 97 games, 374 ab, 68 runs, 97 hits, 21 2b, 2 3b, 8 hr, 28 rbi, 146 tb, 58 walks, 113 strikeouts, 21 sb, 13 cs, .365 obp, .390 slg.,.259 BA. I am sure his injury this year hurt his numbers somewhat.
    2006 stats-56 games, 210 ab, 39 runs, 53 hits, 7 2b, 3 3b, 6 hr, 24 rbi, 84 tb, 32 bb, 64 strikeouts, 19 sb, 4 cs, .368 obp, .252 ba, .400 slg.

    Summary-We all gave up on him too early in 2006,including me. I am looking forward to what a healthy Stubbs will do in 2008
    b. Chris Helsey - I will let his numbers speak for him.
    2007- 101 games, 362 ab, 60 runs, 107 hits, 24 2b, 2 3b, 9 hr, 162 tb,25 bb, 55 strikeouts, 18 sb, 5 cs, .358 obp., .448 slg., .296 ba
    2006- 70 games, 245 ab, 46 runs, 70 hits, 10 2b, 0 3b, 6 hr, 37 rbi, 28 bb, 33 so, 11 sb, 5 cs, .362 obp, .400 slg., .286 ba.
    Summary- A good hitter who has shown some potential at his age.

    These are some of the outfielders in the Reds minor league system who I have chosen to focus on, and I am sure some of you may have some other outfielders I have missed. I chose not to include Rookie level because the prospects are so far from the majors. I would be interested to hear whatever feedback you would like to include on my prospective outfiellders.
    Last edited by AmarilloRed; 07-30-2007 at 03:14 AM. Reason: To complete the thread

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  3. #2
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    Re: Future reds outfielders in the next 5 years

    I'm really not all that impressed by any of those numbers.

    Shouldn't this be on the minor league forum?
    Who's on first?

  4. #3
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    Re: Future reds outfielders in the next 5 years

    Nice summary post. Many good prospects just do not make it. The Reds have improved the farm a bit although it started from such a low point. However there just are not enough solid prospects to build on when you account for the probability of some just won't make it for various reasons. More high ceiling guys are needed to form the foundation which is why the older more expensive talent should be sold off.

  5. #4
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    Re: Future reds outfielders in the next 5 years

    I considered putting it on that forum, but the point of this thread is to discuss outfielders who might help the Reds in the future. This is an important topic, especially since we might trade Dunn or Griffey; or not re-sign them when their deals expire. One thing to remember about the numbers is a lot of these players are developing, and the good ones like Bruce and Dorn can expect to see their numbers improve in the future. Some of the players may end up being career minor leaugers, others may be back-up outfielders, and still others might be starting outfielders. These are the best of the outfield prospects and we still have some work to do on our minor league system.


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