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Thread: Griffey to Seattle?

  1. #16
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by missionhockey21 View Post
    Hey guys I might be going on a date tonight with Jessica Biel, I am not saying it won't happen.... I just don't think it will.

    Actually Jessica has categorically denied this.....
    The lowest acceptable payroll amount for ownership to show they are not greedy pigs is 15 million more than they are currently paying. No matter what that currently is.

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  3. #17
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    I think they get a solid offensive boost by putting Jr in right fulltime and platooning Guillen and Ibanez in left

    That'll go over well with Guillen.
    The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    So that's more than 10,000 fans a game the team could draw. That's a lot of seats in search of fannies. Jr. would surely help cure that problem.
    I don't think attendance for the feel good weekend of the summer is a good barometer for the impact that Jr would have on attendance in Safeco. My guess is Jr might have a slight effect, but his impact wouldn't come close to the impact of making the playoffs. Jr really isn't the silver bullet needed for that to happen though.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Well, Jr. wouldn't be a CF. The Mariners decidedly lack power, particularly from LF and DH. If the franchise wants to win something this year or next, Jones and Balentien probably aren't the answer. Jones seems to be the anointed star of the duo, so if the Mariners could build an OF/DH mix around Ichiro/Guillen/Jones/Jr. that would probably be the best mix of immediate and long-term concerns.
    Jones actually absolutely is the answer. He should play left starting yesterday. Then simply pull an Earl Weaver and platoon Ibanez/Guillen and Sexson/Broussard while mixing in Vidro when he's not playing cards with Bloomquist on the bench. Not only would the defense be dramatically upgraded but the offense would be as well because Guillen would'nt be getting murdered by righties (.247/.314/.367) and Ibanez wouldn't be getting schooled by lefties (.245 /.263/.300).

    The Ms have NO need for position players in trade. They could significantly improve their lineup daily by simply pulling their head out of their arse.

    The Ms DO need a quality starter though if they want to be more than pretenders for the playoff chase.

    As for Wlad Balentien, he's almost certainly going to be traded before next spring training. Clement very well could go too. Unfortunately the Reds and Ms don't really match as trading partners unless the Reds made Arroyo available.
    Last edited by jojo; 07-30-2007 at 11:21 AM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Seattle needs LH power. For example, if they want to beat the Angels head-to-head, they're going to have to be able to score against a rotation that likely has 4 righthanders -- Weaver, Lackey, Escobar and Santana/Colon/Adenhart and a nasty RH bullpen including Moseley, Speier, Shields and K-Rod. Right now their LH bats are Vidro, Ibanez and Broussard. Jones and Balentien are righthanded. I think they get a solid offensive boost by putting Jr in right fulltime and platooning Guillen and Ibanez in left and Sexson and Broussard at first. Vidro can stay at DH.
    Ibanez and Guillen in Safeco's left is a defensive trainwreck that would be an anchor rather than stiff wind in the sails.

    I think the Ms get a much greater boost by maximizing their defense in left with Jones, platooning Ibanez and Guillen in right and saving their trading chips for something they need much more----another starter.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    Actually Jessica has categorically denied this.....
    Denied that it won't be happening, meaning it will? I like the sound of that.

    But seriously, I think Griffey to the Mariners is something we're just bound to hear as long as he has his legs under him and he's healthy. If this was five years ago and the injury concerns for Griffey were not as high as they are now, I could see them wanting to bring the prodigal son back to the franchise, but if they are willing to add a contract in that neighborhood... I think they would much rather go with a more dependable route just based off what I've gathered. Nonetheless, with a top prospect like Jones, it would be a hell of a marketing move to have Griffey pass on the torch so to speak while teaching him all he knows.

    Of course I am greedy and I want to see Griffey hit 600 in Cincy and make a go for 700.

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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    I think the Ms get a much greater boost by maximizing their defense in left with Jones, platooning Ibanez and Guillen in right and saving their trading chips for something they need much more----another starter.
    Theoretically. But is that starter available? Arroyo is going nowhere, and according to rumors there are no above-average arms available. Could be that the Ms would take Griffey and Lohse?

    Can Clement catch in the majors?
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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Jones actually absolutely is the answer. He should play left starting yesterday. Then simply pull an Earl Weaver and platoon Ibanez/Guillen and Sexson/Broussard while mixing in Vidro when he's not playing cards with Bloomquist on the bench. Not only would the defense be dramatically upgraded but the offense would be as well because Guillen would'nt be getting murdered by righties (.247/.314/.367) and Ibanez wouldn't be getting schooled by lefties (.245 /.263/.300).

    The Ms have NO need for position players in trade. They could significantly improve their lineup daily by simply pulling their head out of their arse.

    The Ms DO need a quality starter though if they want to be more than pretenders for the playoff chase.

    As for Wlad Balentien, he's almost certainly going to be traded before next spring training. Clement very well could go too. Unfortunately the Reds and Ms don't really match as trading partners unless the Reds made Arroyo available.
    Is Jones going to be appreciably better than a Delmon Young or Carlos Quentin at this juncture? I agree that he could probably do better than Ibanez, but that's not really saying anything. He's 22. He's probably not going to light the league on fire out of the gate.

    You're absolutely right the M's need a quality starting pitcher more than they need a bat, but I don't know of a single quality starting pitcher on the current market. Plus, the M's do still need a big bat. Jones probably isn't going to be that guy this season (though they'd be well-served to find that out on the field). My take is if the M's added Jr. and called up Jones, they might have enough of an offense to overcome that overcome that pitching.

    Jose Vidro and Raul Ibanez would be a lot better on the bench.

    Anyway, that team has more than a single need. It's played over its head this season and it probably needs to make an aggressive move or two in order to steal a spot in the playoffs. I'm not sure this is anything more than a break in the storm clouds for that franchise, so why not go for it?
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  9. #23
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Is Jones going to be appreciably better than a Delmon Young or Carlos Quentin at this juncture? I agree that he could probably do better than Ibanez, but that's not really saying anything. He's 22. He's probably not going to light the league on fire out of the gate.

    You're absolutely right the M's need a quality starting pitcher more than they need a bat, but I don't know of a single quality starting pitcher on the current market. Plus, the M's do still need a big bat. Jones probably isn't going to be that guy this season (though they'd be well-served to find that out on the field). My take is if the M's added Jr. and called up Jones, they might have enough of an offense to overcome that overcome that pitching.

    Jose Vidro and Raul Ibanez would be a lot better on the bench.

    Anyway, that team has more than a single need. It's played over its head this season and it probably needs to make an aggressive move or two in order to steal a spot in the playoffs. I'm not sure this is anything more than a break in the storm clouds for that franchise, so why not go for it?
    Concerning the pitching, it's very likely that an upgrade isn't possible this season. That's no reason to spend chips like Jones, Wlad and Clement on things that they could accomplish without going shopping. This offseason it may very well be possible to use those chips to get an upgrade their rotation.

    The Ms absolutely DO NOT need to trade for another bat. Between the significant defensive upgrade in Safeco's leftfield (think of it as CF with an asterisk relative to it's importance given the effect of the Puget Sound) and the boost by actually using Ibanez/Guillen and Co in a way that maximizes their production while limiting their weaknesses, there is no need to add a bat.

    Jr in RF (.272 /.386/.526) really isn't an upgrade over a platoon of Ibanez/Guillen in right (lefty: .396/.476/.670; righty: .259/.326/.436). Jr certainly wouldn't be worth the cost of his acquisition when the Ms could essentially get similar production by simply being smarter about how they use the guys they already have. This wouldn't require taking on any salary and more importantly it wouldn't cost talent. There would be no risk that Jr would get hurt and while the RF defense would still suck, adding Jr wouldn't exactly help in that regard anyway.

    Concerning Jones, his glove alone represents a pretty substantial upgrade over Ibanez who is now grading out lower than Dunn defensively. Concerning Jones' bat, here is what Pecota thought Jones could be expected to do in the majors this season before factoring in his breakout summer in AAA: .262/.319/.431. That line would already be a little better than the current AL average for LF (.267/.328/.414). It's probably reasonable to think Jones could do something like .275/.330/.440 for the Ms. That by the way would also represent a significant upgrade offensively over their current situation. Together with his glove, and the newfound ability to platoon other guys, just calling up Jones could have a significant impact on the Ms.

    The Ms really do have the answers they need in house. And while nothing probably substitutes for a bonified quality starter, they can go a long way towards upgrading the pitching by simply making they outfield behind them a much tougher place to get a hit.

    Once again, this could all be done in house without giving up anything. I know it's not as sexy as bringing in someone else's cool toy, but it's ALOT smarter.

    Well anyway, that's how I tend to think through issues related to roster construction.
    Last edited by jojo; 07-30-2007 at 02:03 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Offensively, the Ms really do have the answers they need in house. And defensively, they can go a long way towards upgrading the pitching by simply making they outfield behind them a much tougher place to get a hit.
    Seeing as they can't seem to figure that out and added a washed up and expensive Vidro as a DH in the off-season. Who knows what they will do? Just shows you can be clueless and still be a major league GM.
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    Seeing as they can't seem to figure that out and added a washed up and expensive Vidro as a DH in the off-season. Who knows what they will do? Just shows you can be clueless and still be a major league GM.
    If there has ever been a GM of a team I followed that I'd beg to stand pat at the trade deadline, it would be Bavasi.....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    If there has ever been a GM of a team I followed that I'd beg to stand pat at the trade deadline, it would be Bavasi.....
    nepotism and inbreeding are wonderful things.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  13. #27
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Concerning the pitching, it's very likely that an upgrade isn't possible this season. That's no reason to spend chips like Jones, Wlad and Clement on things that they could accomplish without going shopping. This offseason it may very well be possible to use those chips to get an upgrade their rotation.

    The Ms absolutely DO NOT need to trade for another bat. Between the significant defensive upgrade in Safeco's leftfield (think of it as CF with an asterisk relative to it's importance given the effect of the Puget Sound) and the boost by actually using Ibanez/Guillen and Co in a way that maximizes their production while limiting their weaknesses, there is no need to add a bat.

    Jr in RF (.272 /.386/.526) really isn't an upgrade over a platoon of Ibanez/Guillen in right (lefty: .396/.476/.670; righty: .259/.326/.436). Jr certainly wouldn't be worth the cost of his acquisition when the Ms could essentially get similar production by simply being smarter about how they use the guys they already have. This wouldn't require taking on any salary and more importantly it wouldn't cost talent. There would be no risk that Jr would get hurt and while the RF defense would still suck, adding Jr wouldn't exactly help in that regard anyway.

    Concerning Jones, his glove alone represents a pretty substantial upgrade over Ibanez who is now grading out lower than Dunn defensively. Concerning Jones' bat, here is what Pecota thought Jones could be expected to do in the majors this season before factoring in his breakout summer in AAA: .262/.319/.431. That line would already be a little better than the current AL average for LF (.267/.328/.414). It's probably reasonable to think Jones could do something like .275/.330/.440 for the Ms. That by the way would also represent a significant upgrade offensively over their current situation. Together with his glove, and the newfound ability to platoon other guys, just calling up Jones could have a significant impact on the Ms.

    The Ms really do have the answers they need in house. And while nothing probably substitutes for a bonified quality starter, they can go a long way towards upgrading the pitching by simply making they outfield behind them a much tougher place to get a hit.

    Once again, this could all be done in house without giving up anything. I know it's not as sexy as bringing in someone else's cool toy, but it's ALOT smarter.

    Well anyway, that's how I tend to think through issues related to roster construction.
    Sorry, but the Mariners do not have something similar to a 130 OPS+ bat languishing on the bench or in the minors. I agree they can improve their production by doing some shuffling, but at the plate Jr. is orders of magnitude above what Jones is going to deliver or what you're likely to get from shuffling the lesser lights on the roster. You'll have to explain to me how a 100 point OPS gap (roughly, with park adjustments) between Jr. and Guillen/Ibanez isn't a massive upgrade. As for the defense, there's never been a LF in history who could turn a bad defense into a good one and there never will be.

    The Mariners are not a good offensive team, middle of the road and no better. The EQA list ranks them #1 in actual runs scored above estimated runs scored (+25). When/if that normalizes that club will be in trouble.

    As for what's smart, I doubt either of us consider the Mariners to be a dangerous ballclub or one on the precipice of a big half decade. So here they are, the most unlikely belle at the ball in 2007. I recommend they dance for all they're worth.
    Last edited by M2; 07-30-2007 at 03:02 PM.
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    As for what's smart, I doubt either of us consider the Mariners to be a dangerous ballclub or one on the precipice of a big half decade. So here they are, the most unlikely belle at the ball in 2007. I recommend they dance for all they're worth.
    Bavasi has shown himself to be a do-nothing GM around the trade deadline.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    Bavasi has shown himself to be a do-nothing GM around the trade deadline.
    Krivsky seems to be as well.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  16. #30
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Sorry, but the Mariners do not have something similar to a 130 OPS+ bat languishing on the bench or in the minors. I agree they can improve their production by doing some shuffling, but at the plate Jr. is orders of magnitude above what Jones is going to deliver or what you're likely to get from shuffling the lesser lights on the roster. You'll have to explain to me how a 100 point OPS gap (roughly, with park adjustments) between Jr. and Guillen/Ibanez isn't a massive upgrade. As for the defense, there's never been a LF in history who could turn a bad defense into a good one and there never will be.
    You're completely ignoring the whole argument. A platoon of Guillen/Ibanez in right roughly IS the same thing as Jr. Basically combining the platoon numbers for the two produces a line of .296/.367/.500. Jr's line looks like this: .272/.386/.526. Would a package of something like Wlad/Clement and maybe Fieierbrand (and I'm sure Krivsky would start by asking for more) really by worth .040 SLG over the final 60 games (and keep in mind that these aren't even park adjusted which would make that .040 shrink)? Also, keep in mind that by making this trade there is an associated opportunity cost beyond the value of controlling 6yrs of their prospects. Making the trade means there is no upgrade in left field which probably completely wipes out the .040 and then some.

    Calling Jones up is almost certainly an upgrade offensively for them in left while he absolutely is a defensive upgrade at a key position in Safeco.

    Platooning Broussard/Sexson also improves the offense significantly.

    They have zero need for Griffey. They can come out ahead in '07 by by simply getting smart about the personnel they already have than if they traded for Griffey.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    As for what's smart, I doubt either of us consider the Mariners to be a dangerous ball club or one on the precipice of a big half decade. So here they are, the most unlikely belle at the ball in 2007. I recommend they dance for all they're worth.
    I also recommend they dance for all they're worth which fortunately for them means not giving away talent for shiny things but rather simply taking better care of their own toys.

    The Ms are in a position to get the most out of their current dance while preserving their best chance to get another invite.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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