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Thread: Griffey to Seattle?

  1. #31
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    You're completely ignoring the whole argument. A platoon of Guillen/Ibanez in right roughly IS the same thing as Jr. Basically combining the platoon numbers for the two produces a line of .296/.367/.500. Jr's line looks like this: .272/.386/.526.
    Is Jose Guillen going to continue to OPS 350 points above his career average against LHPs? I kind of doubt that. And even with that sample size fluke, Jr.'s still got a 190 point OPS differential over Ibanez vs. RHPs. Call me crazy, but I think that would be a significant net gain.

    Beyond that, 45 points of OPS is roughly a full standard deviation. So if that's all Jr. delivered (and even with a park adjustment he should be worth double it), you're talking about a forklift upgrade.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Would a package of something like Wlad/Clement and maybe Fieierbrand (and I'm sure Krivsky would start by asking for more) really by worth .040 SLG over the final 60 games (and keep in mind that these aren't even park adjusted which would make that .040 shrink)? Also, keep in mind that by making this trade there is an associated opportunity cost beyond the value of controlling 6yrs of their prospects. Making the trade means there is no upgrade in left field which probably completely wipes out the .040 and then some.
    Yeah, nothing gets the fan juices flowing like passing up a big bat who just happens to be the best and most beloved player in your franchise's history in order to keep some kid who may or may not someday be a good player. The Mariners aren't such great shakes. They find themselves in the unlikely position of being able to make the playoffs despite that. Nobody's going to remember this season fondly if they fade into oblivion and then play to their level in the coming seasons. They've been a big market franchise in the recent past. I suggest they act like one.

    Plus, they could trade for Jr. and call up Jones if they wanted, making Guillen/Ibanez the DH. No one's stopping them from doing that.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Calling Jones up is almost certainly an upgrade offensively for them in left while he absolutely is a defensive upgrade at a key position in Safeco.
    In what universe is LF a key defensive position? Seriously. When did that happen? Because I totally never got that memo.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Platooning Broussard/Sexson also improves the offense significantly.
    It might help, though that is Ben Broussard you're talking about. The magic could wear off of if you rub that lamp too much.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    They have zero need for Griffey. They can come out ahead in '07 by by simply getting smart about the personnel they already have than if they traded for Griffey.
    You keep saying it, but I keep looking at all those mediocre bats and a kid who almost assuredly is going to struggle during his first callup and can't imagine how a guy with a 130 OPS+ wouldn't be a major boon to that team.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I also recommend they dance for all they're worth which fortunately for them means not giving away talent for shiny things but rather simply taking better care of their own toys.
    Let me unmix that metaphor for you. Kids in the minors are the shiny things/toys. You had it half right.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    The Ms are in a position to get the most out of their current dance while preserving their best chance to get another invite.
    Yes, let's not reach for the brass ring. Let's compete and maybe if we don't compete very hard we'll be able to do more competing in the future. How splendid that might be.

    Yuck.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  3. #32
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    I'm not so sure it would take a Balentein or a Clement. That organization has a lot of talent at the AAA level and I'm sure it could get done for less. Of course we would love to have either/both of them. Feieraband is Claussen light, which means no thanks, of course he is still only 21 so he may yet get a few more miles of velocity but his upside may very well be limited.

    Heck the Reds may have some interest in a Mike Morse/Rob Johnson package. Maybe toss in a guy like Oswaldo Navarro and presto deal done!

    Griffey will fill up that stadium and 10,000 more seats means you aren't taking on much salary in the end.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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  4. #33
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    The JR will fill the stadium argument is a good one, it's also the reason JR won't be traded
    Go Gators!

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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Is Jose Guillen going to continue to OPS 350 points above his career average against LHPs? I kind of doubt that. And even with that sample size fluke, Jr.'s still got a 190 point OPS differential over Ibanez vs. RHPs. Call me crazy, but I think that would be a significant net gain.

    Beyond that, 45 points of OPS is roughly a full standard deviation. So if that's all Jr. delivered (and even with a park adjustment he should be worth double it), you're talking about a forklift upgrade.
    Why wouldn't Guillen keep mashing lefties? We all said Aurilia couldn't sustain it last year too.

    That 45 pts of OPS advantage for Jr translates into roughly a difference of 5 RC over the remaining 60 games assuming Jr's July swoon isn't representative of his second half. I think 5 runs neither represents a forklift upgrade nor would it justify the talent necesary to acquire Jr. Besides, like mentioned earlier, getting Jr also prevents the upgrade represented by Jones in left. Overall trading Jr would most likely be a downgrade versus the in house options for the Ms while costing the Ms a significant amount of talent that could impact their long term.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Yeah, nothing gets the fan juices flowing like passing up a big bat who just happens to be the best and most beloved player in your franchise's history in order to keep some kid who may or may not someday be a good player. The Mariners aren't such great shakes. They find themselves in the unlikely position of being able to make the playoffs despite that. Nobody's going to remember this season fondly if they fade into oblivion and then play to their level in the coming seasons. They've been a big market franchise in the recent past. I suggest they act like one.
    There are a ton of Ms fans who wouldn't view the acquisition of Jr as representing what you're suggesting it would. BTW, Jones and Balentien both are thought to be major league ready with Clement probably being ready next season. We're not talking about prospects that are years away.

    BTW the Ms are acting like a big market franchise given a payroll of roughly $110M.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Plus, they could trade for Jr. and call up Jones if they wanted, making Guillen/Ibanez the DH. No one's stopping them from doing that.
    Unless it took Jones to get Jr. Also, the Ms don't view Guillen as a DH because they think he still has defensive value. Guillen certainly doesn't view himself as a DH either.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    In what universe is LF a key defensive position? Seriously. When did that happen? Because I totally never got that memo.
    Safeco's leftfield is a unique defensive environment. It's not a place where a poor glove can be hiddden. It's a place where the consequences of a poor glove get magnified. Don't wait for the memo. Watch some games played there and see for yourself.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    You keep saying it, but I keep looking at all those mediocre bats and a kid who almost assuredly is going to struggle during his first callup and can't imagine how a guy with a 130 OPS+ wouldn't be a major boon to that team.

    Let me unmix that metaphor for you. Kids in the minors are the shiny things/toys. You had it half right.
    Except it wouldn't be Jone's first call up. There are alot of memos you're not getting.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Yes, let's not reach for the brass ring. Let's compete and maybe if we don't compete very hard we'll be able to do more competing in the future. How splendid that might be.

    Yuck.
    Calling up Jones and platooning Guillen/Ibanez and Sexson/Broussard would be the smart AND ballsy thing to do if the Ms were going for the ring. Trading away young talent for Jr isn't the upgrade it seems on the surface and would actually be the weenie way to go about competing that's neither imaginative nor enlightened.

    Here's a personal bias of mine that really colors alot of my opinions: A FO making smart moves that improve the team is a clear sign of a team going for a ring. A FO that throws talent and money around chasing production before it actually maximizes it's own roster is a clear sign of a FO that probably never will compete for a ring.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    I'm not so sure it would take a Balentein or a Clement. That organization has a lot of talent at the AAA level and I'm sure it could get done for less. Of course we would love to have either/both of them. Feieraband is Claussen light, which means no thanks, of course he is still only 21 so he may yet get a few more miles of velocity but his upside may very well be limited.

    Heck the Reds may have some interest in a Mike Morse/Rob Johnson package. Maybe toss in a guy like Oswaldo Navarro and presto deal done!

    Griffey will fill up that stadium and 10,000 more seats means you aren't taking on much salary in the end.
    Griffey doesn't fill up GABP. Really the effect that Jr would have on attendance at Safeco is being dramatically overstated. Jr's homecoming had been marketed heavily since January. The Ms would not expect to see Jr draw an additional 10,000 in ordinary circumstances.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Jojo, just curious, are you from Seattle, or just a fan of the Mariners? Ever been there?
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    Jojo, just curious, are you from Seattle, or just a fan of the Mariners? Ever been there?
    I lived a glorious 4+ years in the pacific northwest (well, really just a glorious 6+ months....the rest of the time it rained).

    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  9. #38
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I lived a glorious 4+ years in the pacific northwest (well, really just a glorious 6+ months....the rest of the time it rained).

    Seattle is fabulous when the weather's good. It's just nice the other 340 days a year.

    We went up there for the Reds series and it was freezing. Thankfully Portland has a little better climate than Seattle. I'm not sure I could take the weather up there. (or the traffic)
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Griffey doesn't fill up GABP. Really the effect that Jr would have on attendance at Safeco is being dramatically overstated. Jr's homecoming had been marketed heavily since January. The Ms would not expect to see Jr draw an additional 10,000 in ordinary circumstances.
    Well perhaps it is being overstated, maybe it's not that far off either. Griffey would help fill up GABP if we were winning, and seeing as how we are not we are still avg. pretty solid attendance thanks in large part to Griffey. My guess is he is worth 6-8 thousand a night. If we were winning w/ Griffey you couldn't get a seat in that place.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    Seattle is fabulous when the weather's good. It's just nice the other 340 days a year.

    We went up there for the Reds series and it was freezing. Thankfully Portland has a little better climate than Seattle. I'm not sure I could take the weather up there. (or the traffic)
    I've spent alot of time in the Willamette valley too.....it's a great place to be during the spring and summer... maybe one of my favorite places and the people are great too....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  12. #41
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    Well perhaps it is being overstated, maybe it's not that far off either. Griffey would help fill up GABP if we were winning, and seeing as how we are not we are still avg. pretty solid attendance thanks in large part to Griffey. My guess is he is worth 6-8 thousand a night. If we were winning w/ Griffey you couldn't get a seat in that place.
    Oh come on! Last year the Reds were in first place into June. and within a few games of making the playoffs until the final weekend. Our per game average attendance was 26,351. Griffey was playing until he got hurt....This year's average is about the same; 26,702.

    I am also a M's fan; there would be an intial boost in attendance with Junior. Then a small gain. But, like I said earlier, they will sell more seats just by winning.
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by mbgrayson View Post
    Oh come on! Last year the Reds were in first place into June. and within a few games of making the playoffs until the final weekend. Our per game average attendance was 26,351. Griffey was playing until he got hurt....This year's average is about the same; 26,702.

    I am also a M's fan; there would be an intial boost in attendance with Junior. Then a small gain. But, like I said earlier, they will sell more seats just by winning.
    And nobody was buying into the winning being anything more than smoke and mirrors. And you both may be right he may not help at all. But if Seattle is actually interested then they see a reason for him being there. And I for one am buying the hype on this one, of course it may still not get done. But I believe there is interest from Seattle.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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  14. #43
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Why wouldn't Guillen keep mashing lefties? We all said Aurilia couldn't sustain it last year too.
    Because at some point his DNA will take over. He could do a perfectly respectable .900 OPS vs southpaws from here on out, but that 1.100+ OPS is a fluke and we both know it.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    That 45 pts of OPS advantage for Jr translates into roughly a difference of 5 RC over the remaining 60 games assuming Jr's July swoon isn't representative of his second half. I think 5 runs neither represents a forklift upgrade nor would it justify the talent necesary to acquire Jr. Besides, like mentioned earlier, getting Jr also prevents the upgrade represented by Jones in left. Overall trading Jr would most likely be a downgrade versus the in house options for the Ms while costing the Ms a significant amount of talent that could impact their long term.
    First off, I estimated that it was more likely Jr. would be a 100-point OPS bump, which would put him closer to a 10-RC difference for the rest of the season and that would be a big deal. And once again, a 10-RC hitting improvement for the rest of the season is the exact opposite of a downgrade vs. the house options. It is the very definition of an upgrade.

    As for this "getting Jr also prevents the upgrade represented by Jones in left" invention of yours. You can keep saying it, but the Mariners could do both.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    There are a ton of Ms fans who wouldn't view the acquisition of Jr as representing what you're suggesting it would. BTW, Jones and Balentien both are thought to be major league ready with Clement probably being ready next season. We're not talking about prospects that are years away.
    Thought to be major league ready by whom? I chalk sentences like that up to things people say that don't really mean anything. Jones and Balentien are going to have a transition period. Pretty much every player coming out of AAA does, even the studs. The Arizona Diamondbacks are swimming in players like that - tipped for stardom, but taking some lumps.

    And let's be honest, it would be an extreme minority grousing about trading a prospect for Jr., a number that would dwindle to almost zero if he put a hurt on the ball.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    BTW the Ms are acting like a big market franchise given a payroll of roughly $110M.
    It's not how much you spend so much as when you spend it. The Mariners spend like the nouveau riche.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Unless it took Jones to get Jr. Also, the Ms don't view Guillen as a DH because they think he still has defensive value. Guillen certainly doesn't view himself as a DH either.
    Have they consulted directly with you on this? If not, I'd suggest that they are capable of forming the same opinion you have - that they've got corner OF problems and Jones could help that. They also might be of the opinion that while Jones could help in the field, he'd be making a lot of extra outs at the plate while adjusting to the majors, losing the team whole numbers on offensive production for decimal gains on defense.

    I imagine Jose Guillen views himself as the second coming of Roberto Clemente. I wouldn't necessarily make my team a captive to his self image.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Safeco's leftfield is a unique defensive environment. It's not a place where a poor glove can be hiddden. It's a place where the consequences of a poor glove get magnified. Don't wait for the memo. Watch some games played there and see for yourself.
    I've seen plenty of games at Safeco. It's not exactly a new ballpark. It wasn't so unique to keep Al Martin, Ruben Sierra and Raul Ibanez from plying their trade there (all awful defenders). Randy Winn's the only real plus defender the M's have deployed out there during the Safeco years. It's not that unique and quality defense out there isn't going to be a magic bullet for a team with bad pitching and mediocre offense.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Except it wouldn't be Jone's first call up. There are alot of memos you're not getting.
    You're right. I'm sure his 76-PA from last season was all the apprenticeship he'll need for the majors. What could I have been thinking? Clearly he's seen and done it all.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Calling up Jones and platooning Guillen/Ibanez and Sexson/Broussard would be the smart AND ballsy thing to do if the Ms were going for the ring. Trading away young talent for Jr isn't the upgrade it seems on the surface and would actually be the weenie way to go about competing that's neither imaginative nor enlightened.
    Yep, it's as easy as platooning a bunch of vets, hoping their career norms don't catch up to them and then calling up a kid who'll be an instant star. That's certainly imaginative. I imagine Mariners fans will be praising the ballsiness of it in September when the team is playing out the string of yet another fruitless campaign, fully aware that, like most great works of man, it will take future generations to appreciate the full magnitude of its genius.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Here's a personal bias of mine that really colors alot of my opinions: A FO making smart moves that improve the team is a clear sign of a team going for a ring. A FO that throws talent and money around chasing production before it actually maximizes it's own roster is a clear sign of a FO that probably never will compete for a ring.
    A) The Mariners aren't swimming talent. They're overachieving. Massage the roster any way you wish and all it will accomplish is the club would have to overachieve slightly less to make the playoffs.

    B) Spending blood and treasure on a big bat to bolster a flagging offense could very well be a smart move. Spending less and forever trying to leech blood from stones are not necessarily the hallmarks of intelligence. It's a make-due plan. Obviously every team should try to get the most out of what it has, but there comes a time where a GM's got to ask whether he's got enough of a team to make the postseason and the answer in Bill Bavasi's case is probably no. So what can he do to change that? I'm not saying it has to be a trade for Jr., but the value engineering cookbook isn't exactly chockfull of World Series winning recipes.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  15. #44
    Passion for the game Team Clark's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    I would not be surprised at all to see Jr. gone by tomorrow. I would be more surprised to see him stay if that makes any sense. The only hurdle is Junior wanting a contract extension to 2011. (Not at a discount either)
    It's absolutely pathetic that people can't have an opinion from actually watching games and supplementing that with stats. If you voice an opinion that doesn't fit into a black/white box you will get completely misrepresented and basically called a tobacco chewing traditionalist...
    Cedric 3/24/08

  16. #45
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by Team Clark View Post
    I would not be surprised at all to see Jr. gone by tomorrow. I would be more surprised to see him stay if that makes any sense. The only hurdle is Junior wanting a contract extension to 2011. (Not at a discount either)
    This is what I mean. Hopefully we can help smooth that hurdle out somehow!
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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