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Thread: Griffey to Seattle?

  1. #61
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Leader View Post
    An AL team with the DH that desperately needs LH power might be willing to sign Jr. to an extension. You never know.
    Unfortunately the Ms don't fit that bill.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #62
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by osuceltic View Post
    That "only hurdle" might as well be Mt. Freaking Everest. No team is going to extend him three more years. He might as well be invoking a no-trade clause.
    I think just a demand to pick up Jr's '09 option would probably be a deal killer.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  4. #63
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Unfortunately the Ms don't fit that bill.
    The M's have essentially no LH power.

  5. #64
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    The M's have essentially no LH power.
    But why does that mean they think they desparately need it-especially at the cost that Jr's has been rumored to be?

    After the feel good weekend of the summer, their FO pretty much indicated they have no desire to bring Jr back. Nothing has really changed since then that would give them a reason to change their mind.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  6. #65
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Hard to believe that a 10/5 guy's agent wouldn't be deeply involved in discussions were a potential trade being consumated and equally hard to believe that no parties would be talking about it off the record in the media...too hard to keep a deal that needs permission from getting out in the open, IMO...


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  7. #66
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by coachw513 View Post
    Hard to believe that a 10/5 guy's agent wouldn't be deeply involved in discussions were a potential trade being consumated and equally hard to believe that no parties would be talking about it off the record in the media...too hard to keep a deal that needs permission from getting out in the open, IMO...
    Jr back to Seattle would be the biggest story of the trade deadline cycle....ESPN would be pimping such a rumor every 3 seconds if it even had a semblance of a prosthetic leg....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #67
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Also as what should be the final nail in the coffin to end the Jr to Seattle speculation.........

    The absolute last thing the Ms need is a right-handed reliever for the 8th inning. Therefore, if the Ms do trade today, they will like burn all of their useful chips on acquiring two.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  9. #68
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    BTW, Larryboy thinks he going back to Seattle.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  10. #69
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    From MLB Trade Rumors:
    "The Mets are also talking to the Reds; could've been about Ken Griffey Jr. or David Weathers. From what we've heard, though, Weathers is not available."

    If Griffey went to the Mets, he would be just as close to his home in Florida. The Mets are a serious contender, and Beltran is hurt.

    I didn't want to start a new rumor thread today....
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  11. #70
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    That frankly is an estimate that you're pulling out of your arse. Basically to estimate a 10 run difference, you have to assume the worst case for the platoon and the best case for Jr. Guillen might regress, he might not. Ibanez certainly has room for a hot streak. Jr had a GREAT first half of the season. That said, there isn't much reason to believe his second half will be carbon copy. It's most reasonable to assume a let down given his age and wear and tear and the fact that his first half surpassed most people's reasonable expectations. God willing he won't suffer an injury. A 100 pt bump in OPS not only seems optimistic, it's probably unlikely.
    For 2004-2007:

    Raul Ibanez - .806 OPS
    Jose Guillen - .801
    Ken Griffey Jr. - .884

    Interesting how Guillen's red-hot blip against southpaws is real, but Ibanez has room for a hot streak.

    Seems to me, forecasting a .900 OPS for a healthy Jr. is fairly conservative seeing as it's something he's done with regularlity and forecasting more than an .800 OPS for Guillen/Ibanez is patently silly.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I'm not inventing anything. I'm basing my interpretation upon the culture of the Ms FO. If Jones is in left and Jr in right, there are two spots for Ibanez, Guillen, Broussard, Sexson and Vidro. Bavasi is fond of saying kids get managers fired. Assuming Bavasi doesn't want to get fired, Jones is low man on the totem pole in a log jam of veterans like that.
    Your "interpretation upon the culture of the M's FO"? Talk about torturing language and logic. For the sake of argument, let's say you're right, Bavasi doesn't trust kids. Then Jones isn't playing anyway and your entire point is moot.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I understand that not everyone on a Reds board will closely follow player development in the systems of other teams. That said, platitudes, demogogery and dogma shouldn't be mistaken for knowledge or insight.
    My guess is I follow these things far more closely than you. It would certainly seem the case as you've apparently failed to recognize that hot prospects routinely struggle through their first extended stays in the majors. I could keep the laundry list going beyond Delmon Young, Carlos Quentin and Stephen Drew, but what's the point? You're just going to ignore it and continue acting like Adam Jones won't face similar trials.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I guess it all depends on what cohort you're referencing. I know quite a few that would have a cow.
    Then you know too many people who'd rather argue a point than win a division.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    NO. It's how you spend it. It always has been and it always will be. Frankly, the Ms have spent like the old rich....very conservatively in the sense that they overpay for *proven*.
    Old money's not conservative, it's dominion-oriented. New money buys Boardwalk. Old money buys the dice.

    Obviously a franchise needs to spend its money well, but the point of being rich, and I've heard this from the mouths of the filthy rich, is being able to do what you want when you want to do it.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Of course they have. DUH.
    Then, duh, stop speaking for them.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Once again, there is every reason to believe that Jones could be at least a league average bat in left field. His glove alone would be reason enough to stick him in left.
    I'm not sure how many times I have to agree with you that the Mariners ought to play Jones, but I'll do it again just because you don't seem to be catching it. He'll probably struggle a bit, but given the roster alternatives that's not much of a concern. Of course, according to you, Bill Bavasi won't do it, so why you keep yammering about it escapes me.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    It's pure poppycock to suggest that it's a given that a top tier prospect who has proven himself ready will struggle out of the gate. At least, guys like Pence and Braun seem to suggest such a blanket statement really is an empty one concerning it's predictive power.
    Yep, those two did well.

    Yet B.J. Upton's first 366 PAs were pretty forgettable.
    Delmon Young's below average.
    Elijah Dukes is struggling.
    Nick Markakis has been an .800 OPS player, not the .993 OPS guy from AA.
    Adam Lind has been awful.
    Jason Kubel's been awful.
    Josh Fields' OPS is 150 points lower than it was in AAA.
    Alex Gordon, not so good.
    Billy Butler's got a 114-point OPS gap from AAA to the majors (though he's been solid).
    Howie Kendrick's been pretty blah.
    Conor Jackson, Stephen Drew, Chris Young and Carlos Quentin have all struggled.
    Troy Tulowitski plays in Colorado and he's still been able to do no better than pedestrian.
    Kevin Kouzmanoff (.951 minor league OPS) has struggled.
    Rickie Weeks, who destroyed AAA, still hasn't figured out the majors two seasons later.
    Felix Pie, wretched.
    Jeremy Hermida's maybe putting it together into his second season.

    It's not a given that top hitting prospects will take some time to adjust, but it's pretty damn common.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    The 2001-2002 versions of the Ms were perhaps some of the best defensive teams in recent history. They could afford to carry a Martin or Sierra in left. Even so neither player even got a majority of defensive innings in left either year.
    Now wait a second, either LF is critical or it isn't. It's not uniquely critical when it suits your fancy and a backwater when it doesn't. Clearly the Safeco LF situation isn't so unique that the Mariners haven't been able to do like every other franchise in history and have a good defense while taking a mulligan in LF. If the Mariners can't pick up the ball well enough elsewhere on the diamond, then they need to address those positions. It gets back to what I said a way back in this thread: There's never been a LF in history who could turn a bad defense into a good one and there never will be.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    The 2003 outfield alignment of the Ms is a perfect example that basically makes the case for Jones. Put a great defender in the largest leftfield in the AL where the Puget Sound causes balls in the air to hang and thus make them more catchable than in other parks and whooollaaaaa, team ERA plummets. To suggest that the size and environment of Safeco's left field doesn't make it unique is a bit absurd.
    Voila, not whooollaaaaa (pet peeve). Yep, the Mariners had arguably the best OF defense in history in 2003. Unfortunately they missed the playoffs, unlike 2000 and 2001 when the plurality of time in LF went to defensive zeroes like Rickey Henderson and Al Martin. Hmm, if I didn't know better I'd say that LF defense didn't exactly prove to be a magic bullet.

    Also, if the air causes the ball to hang then wouldn't it be an easier place to field? You know, giving fielders more time to run under the ball as opposed to a place with thin air and/or a slick/artificial carpet where the ball rockets into the gaps.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I've argued to platoon veterans to magnify their strengths while lessening their weaknesses.
    You've argued to platoon players based on small sample sizes while chucking the career performance out the window.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    It's not sexy but it's a time proven strategy. It's an interesting argument to have to make on a Reds site given the way the Reds rode a similar platoon at first base almost to the playoffs last season.
    The 2006 Reds aren't a model for anything other than a team that, despite not being very good, found itself close to a playoff spot due to fluke circumstance. Teams that overachieve to 80-82 aren't exactly where I go for emulation. But hey, the Reds have a similar platoon again this year and now they're underachieving to 45-61. It's almost like that time-proven strategy makes little more than an ephemeral difference when larger forces are at play.

    Don't get me wrong. I'd try those platoons (actually I'd use Guillen and Sexson against RHPs at times dependent on the starting pitcher) and I'd give Jones a shot, but at no juncture would I be under the delusion that I had fixed the offense enough to make the playoffs.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I've also argued that having a great defender in Safeco's left CAN help the pitching in '07 just like it did in '03.
    How about in 2001 when the pitching and DER were better and the LF defense was worse? Obviously good defense can help pitching, but you've already made the case that it's other spots on the field that drive that bus, not LF.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Finally, I've argued that the impact of Jr's bat, assuming he mirrors his first half, basically isn't great enough compared to the options already on the Ms roster to justify trading the talent it would likely be necesary to give up in order to get him.
    There's a difference between saying it and making the case. Yes, you'd horde the kids and ride the Raul Ibanez Express to Alsoranville. Brilliant. With all that money you're saving you'll be able to buy a giant HD flat screen on which you can watch the playoffs.
    Last edited by M2; 07-31-2007 at 11:50 AM.
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  12. #71
    Passion for the game Team Clark's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by coachw513 View Post
    Hard to believe that a 10/5 guy's agent wouldn't be deeply involved in discussions were a potential trade being consumated and equally hard to believe that no parties would be talking about it off the record in the media...too hard to keep a deal that needs permission from getting out in the open, IMO...
    Like the Milwaukee rumor that was supposedly not true? There is no doubt in my mind that Brian Goldberg, JR's agent, has been in direct contact with several teams in the past few weeks.

    Remember the White Sox deal that no one heard about until months later? Ohhh that's right. Those talks never happened either. Spin and media control is just as important in trade talks as any other component. For all his faults, Jim Bowden was the master of this.

    Quote Originally Posted by mbgrayson View Post
    From MLB Trade Rumors:
    "The Mets are also talking to the Reds; could've been about Ken Griffey Jr. or David Weathers. From what we've heard, though, Weathers is not available."
    Possibly a good fit for Jr. IMO. I'd like to see him get a legitimate shot at a ring.
    It's absolutely pathetic that people can't have an opinion from actually watching games and supplementing that with stats. If you voice an opinion that doesn't fit into a black/white box you will get completely misrepresented and basically called a tobacco chewing traditionalist...
    Cedric 3/24/08

  13. #72
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    The M's have essentially no LH power.
    You're making too much sense. Just because they're bereft of it doesn't mean they think they need it, let alone that they'd want it. I mean, assuming teams are going to attempt to trade for the things they lack is bit too Frank Lloyd Baum, don't you think?
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  14. #73
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by mbgrayson View Post
    From MLB Trade Rumors:
    "The Mets are also talking to the Reds; could've been about Ken Griffey Jr. or David Weathers. From what we've heard, though, Weathers is not available."

    If Griffey went to the Mets, he would be just as close to his home in Florida. The Mets are a serious contender, and Beltran is hurt.

    I didn't want to start a new rumor thread today....
    Personally I think it was about Jeff Conine
    "I could watch video of Griffey swinging all day. It's like baseball porn." - C. Trent Rosecrans


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  15. #74
    Hot Stove Season HotCorner's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by mbgrayson View Post
    From MLB Trade Rumors:
    "The Mets are also talking to the Reds; could've been about Ken Griffey Jr. or David Weathers. From what we've heard, though, Weathers is not available."

    If Griffey went to the Mets, he would be just as close to his home in Florida. The Mets are a serious contender, and Beltran is hurt.

    I didn't want to start a new rumor thread today....
    Lastings Milledge please.

  16. #75
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by Team Clark View Post
    Possibly a good fit for Jr. IMO. I'd like to see him get a legitimate shot at a ring.
    I would like to see BOB make a stand and tell the REDS fans,, 2008 WILL BE the YEAR this team makes the playoffs.. and does what he can do to get the team there.. be it get a REAL manager and REAL pitching coach as well as a GM that knows how to make the right trades.. and WILL spend the money saved from Lohse, Milton and Dunn(i still think he gets traded), and WILL improve this team.. not think fans will come out to watch crap baseball played.. not waiting 10 more years of rebuilding... it gets old... i pray the bengals go all the way to really make BOB see how fun WINNING is next door that he wanst it VERY BAD too!!..

    Also Pete Rose was on Furmans show yesterday, said that last year when the Reds blew it on that west coast trip, he was at Dodger stadium during one of those 3 games and NARRON "MR Baseball Guy" came up to him and asked him if he could give the team a pep talk as he couldnt motivate them".. Now isnt that sad??? heck i could see he cant motivate anybody.. it showed this season till he was fired!! Mack has helped, but until that dang bullpen is fixed, this team isnt going anywhere!!.. Hume needs to go along with Pole!!

    I just hope BOB doesnt think 10 bobble head nights will get the fans back to watching a last place team... if i want a bobble head bad enough i will buy one on E-Bay!

    I want to see a winner..

    Oh TC, why is Gomes being avalable in a trade? wouldnt he do better as a LH DH for TB?? he has the power!

    Also you think the Reds WK was smart getting Cantu??


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