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Thread: Griffey to Seattle?

  1. #76
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    You're making too much sense. Just because they're bereft of it doesn't mean they think they need it, let alone that they'd want it. I mean, assuming teams are going to attempt to trade for the things they lack is bit too Frank Lloyd Baum, don't you think?
    Contending is overrated. Fans would rather watch Raul Ibanez anyway.

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  3. #77
    Passion for the game Team Clark's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfan4445 View Post
    Oh TC, why is Gomes being avalable in a trade? wouldnt he do better as a LH DH for TB?? he has the power!

    Also you think the Reds WK was smart getting Cantu??
    Gomes is really a player on an island in TB. A decent trading chip for sure. My only concern would be his health. his 2006 numbers were an indication of what it was like for him to play with a torn up shoulder. IMO, he's as likely to put up 2005 numbers as 2006. Gomes always reminded me of a young Rusell Branyan. Gomes is a RH btw.

    Do I think Wayne was "smart" by getting Cantu? Hmmmm. I am in favor of the move as long as there are other moves to make this one necessary. i.e. Conine and Hatte being traded for something of VALUE. Getting Cantu just to get him I really can't get behind. I stated in another thread that I did like the move and I see Cantu playing 1B.

    He's cheap for another year and if he returns to his 2004, 2005 numbers (big gamble) then I think we may have stolen him from TB. Cantu can't be relied upon to get OB but he can drive in some runs and carry a team for a week or two. His defense is scary. Kind of like Dunn at 1B scary. :
    It's absolutely pathetic that people can't have an opinion from actually watching games and supplementing that with stats. If you voice an opinion that doesn't fit into a black/white box you will get completely misrepresented and basically called a tobacco chewing traditionalist...
    Cedric 3/24/08

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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    For 2004-2007:

    Raul Ibanez - .806 OPS
    Jose Guillen - .801
    Ken Griffey Jr. - .884

    Interesting how Guillen's red-hot blip against southpaws is real, but Ibanez has room for a hot streak.

    Seems to me, forecasting a .900 OPS for a healthy Jr. is fairly conservative seeing as it's something he's done with regularlity and forecasting more than an .800 OPS for Guillen/Ibanez is patently silly.
    First, I've never suggested that Guillen's '07 split against lefties is representative of his true ability. I have suggested though that if Aurilia could mash lefties like he did for all of 2006, there is no reason to assume Guillen will immediately regress to his mean. Why wouldn't you ride that for all it's worth?

    Besides consider this:

    Here are three year platoon splits for Guillen/Raul:

    Raul vs righties ('05-'07): .287/.360/.494; OPS: .854;
    Jose vs lefties ('04-'07): .292/.345/.495; OPS: .840;

    Raul/Jose combined:
    .288/.356/.494; OPS: .850;

    Jr (2005-2007): .277/.358/.532; OPS: .890;

    Using three year splits as a way to diminish a bias due to Guillens crazy 2007, the difference between the platoon and Jr is .040 OPS. Over the last 56 games, a difference of .040 OPS translates into roughly 5 RC.

    There is one caveat though with Guillen as I used his '04 season rather than his '06 because last season he had no business holding a bat (the effect isn't that great anyway). Jr has been hurt too of course but since you'd have to go back to 2000 for him not to be, it's more representative to simply ignore the issue with him. Besides none of these numbers are park adjusted.

    Concerning Ibanez, since Pecota predicted a much better year for him (.283/.353/.487; OPS: .840) than the one he is having thus far (.253/.306/.389; OPS: .695), it seems that Ibanez DOES have room for a hot streak. Who knows, Ibanez might actually get worse but to suggest that Ibanez doesn't have room for improvement seems harsh. Even people who simply look at the back of his baseball card might reasonably think he's got room for a hot streak.

    On the other hand, Jr has had a GREAT first half (.286/.390/.568 OPS: .958) that blew away his Pecota projection (.274/.341/.501; OPS: .842) to the tune of somewhere near the 90th percentile. For him to OPS at .900, he'd have to hit Pecota's 75th percentile. Given that and considering the second half he's having (.188/.342/.297; OPS: .639), even devout Reds fans (and I'm assuming we both fit that bill) might consider him OPSing .900 the rest of the way to be optimistic.

    Pecota is NOT destiny of course, but whether looking at the past or using projection tools to look at the future, an expected 5 RC difference seems like a reasonable estimate.

    What would those 5 RC cost? Jr is owed roughly $3.5M the rest of '07, $12.5 M for '08 and $16.5M for his '09 (he'd most likely demand the option be picked up in order for him to waive his no-trade rights). Then there is the young talent that the Reds would likely demand in trade. It's debatable but given Krivsky's hard stance during the trade season, I'd guess he'd at least ask for Balentien and Clement. Clement represents potential lefty power and Wlad could very well suceed Guillen in right with both of these thigs occurring as early as next season. Neither happen if theyre traded away for a couple expensive years of JR.

    So, those 5 RC could mean the Ms would have to take on a little over $30M in payroll and give up two excellent prospects that could help them as early as next season all the while ignoring the fact that Jr hasn't played a full season since 2000. All of that despite a compelling case being made that trading for Jr just simply wouldn't reasonably be expected to provide the kind of upgrade over a platoon of Guillen/Ibanez to justify the Ms trading for him. The Ms come out ahead by staying in house.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Your "interpretation upon the culture of the M's FO"? Talk about torturing language and logic. For the sake of argument, let's say you're right, Bavasi doesn't trust kids. Then Jones isn't playing anyway and your entire point is moot.
    I don't want to get snarky but this really is a bunch of hand waving.

    You can't ignore a FO's philosophy and M.O. when supposing how they value players and how they might utilize their roster. In fact, an understanding of their philosophy and M.O. is essential in a discussion like the one we're having.

    Bavasi is on record (many times over) concerning his views and there is a history of his transactions.

    Just recently he said this:
    "Knowing we had Adam Jones was very much a part of our decision-making process," general manager Bill Bavasi said.
    This suggests he would indeed play Jones and wasn't inclined to make a trade that would create a situation less conducive to his playing like creating a log jam of veterans.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    My guess is I follow these things far more closely than you. It would certainly seem the case as you've apparently failed to recognize that hot prospects routinely struggle through their first extended stays in the majors. I could keep the laundry list going beyond Delmon Young, Carlos Quentin and Stephen Drew, but what's the point? You're just going to ignore it and continue acting like Adam Jones won't face similar trials.
    I enjoy reading your posts (including your contributions to the minor league forum). I think you're knowledgeable. But with all due respect, I'm willing to bet I'm better versed on the Ms player development than you may be. While perfectly understandable, not remembering or appreciating that Jones already has major league service time suggests you've chosen to focus on other teams more diligently. It's not a criticism of you. I'm just wondering why you'd automatically assume more knowledge of the Ms system than a professed Ms junkie.


    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Obviously a franchise needs to spend its money well, but the point of being rich, and I've heard this from the mouths of the filthy rich, is being able to do what you want when you want to do it.
    The point of being filthy rich is to act like a child?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'm not sure how many times I have to agree with you that the Mariners ought to play Jones, but I'll do it again just because you don't seem to be catching it. He'll probably struggle a bit, but given the roster alternatives that's not much of a concern. Of course, according to you, Bill Bavasi won't do it, so why you keep yammering about it escapes me.
    I've actually argued that if the Ms acquired Jr it would create a roster log jam that given Bavasi's biases would almost certainly preclude Jones getting significant playing time. This opinion is based upon an informed history. To suggest otherwise, ignores how they've done business in the past. But entertaining for a moment that Bavasi would do something out of character, the Ms still don't need Jr. They could accomplish production that's reasonably expected to approximate Jr in-house without breaking the bank or trading valuable talent that may be significant for their future. Arguments about Jones really are tangential to the underlying point.


    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Yep, those two did well.

    Yet B.J. Upton's first 366 PAs were pretty forgettable.
    Delmon Young's below average.
    Elijah Dukes is struggling.
    Nick Markakis has been an .800 OPS player, not the .993 OPS guy from AA.
    Adam Lind has been awful.
    Jason Kubel's been awful.
    Josh Fields' OPS is 150 points lower than it was in AAA.
    Alex Gordon, not so good.
    Billy Butler's got a 114-point OPS gap from AAA to the majors (though he's been solid).
    Howie Kendrick's been pretty blah.
    Conor Jackson, Stephen Drew, Chris Young and Carlos Quentin have all struggled.
    Troy Tulowitski plays in Colorado and he's still been able to do no better than pedestrian.
    Kevin Kouzmanoff (.951 minor league OPS) has struggled.
    Rickie Weeks, who destroyed AAA, still hasn't figured out the majors two seasons later.
    Felix Pie, wretched.
    Jeremy Hermida's maybe putting it together into his second season.

    It's not a given that top hitting prospects will take some time to adjust, but it's pretty damn common.
    Really analyses like this are missing context. Rickie Weeks and Felix Pie don't inform Jones' performance any more than Pence and Braun do. Entering this season, Pecota forecasted Jones as a slightly above average bat for AL left fielders. Jones' performance in AAA seems to support that assessment. Will Jones OPS at .970 as an M this season? Not many informed fans would expect him to. Would he perform to his projections? There's not much reason to doubt it. In fact a survey of the big five projection systems all agree with Pecota. I wouldn't characterize being slightly above league average at age 22 while playing above average defense to be struggling. Maybe others would.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Now wait a second, either LF is critical or it isn't.
    My argument about Safeco's left field is pretty straightforward. Given its immense size and the impact the Puget Sound has on how balls travel there, the Ms are in a unique position to gain a significant advantage by playing a plus defender there because such a player can eat up balls that would otherwise be hits with his superior range.

    Safeco's left field IS unique in how it could be exploited for a defensive advantage. Given the Ms rather bad outfield defense, upgrading left field could have a significant impact on their RA.

    Failing to exploit an advantage doesn't prove one doesn't exist and having the Puget Sound artificially inflate a minus defender's abilities doesn't negate the advantage that could be gained by having the Puget Sound inflate a plus defender's abilities. Given that Ibanez's defense is ranked near mlb worst despite the Puget Sound really highlights how much potential advantage lies untapped in the vastness of Safeco's leftfield this season. Trying to hide a lousy defender out there represents a large opportunity cost.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    You've argued to platoon players based on small sample sizes while chucking the career performance out the window.
    No I haven't.


    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Don't get me wrong. I'd try those platoons (actually I'd use Guillen and Sexson against RHPs at times dependent on the starting pitcher) and I'd give Jones a shot, but at no juncture would I be under the delusion that I had fixed the offense enough to make the playoffs.
    But you've argued Jr would.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    There's a difference between saying it and making the case.
    A compelling case has been made.

    You may not agree but that's different than suggesting that an opposing argument hasn't been formulated.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Yes, you'd horde the kids and ride the Raul Ibanez Express to Alsoranville. Brilliant. With all that money you're saving you'll be able to buy a giant HD flat screen on which you can watch the playoffs.
    But spending a boat load of money and talent on Jr wouldn't change things this year and would have consequences for the future.

    Anyway, we obviously have some differences of opinion about how money/prospects should be utilized. That said, this has been a stimulating discussion for the most part that has touched on alot of issues. I appreciate the dialog.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    You can't ignore a FO's philosophy and M.O. when supposing how they value players and how they might utilize their roster. In fact, an understanding of their philosophy and M.O. is essential in a discussion like the one we're having.

    Bavasi is on record (many times over) concerning his views and there is a history of his transactions.

    Just recently he said this:

    This suggests he would indeed play Jones and wasn't inclined to make a trade that would create a situation less conducive to his playing like creating a log jam of veterans.
    Now, wait a second. Bavasi's words and record indicate that he doesn't trust kids, but "he would indeed play Adam Jones"?

    I'll say it again. I'd play Adam Jones too. However, the Mariners aren't yet doing that.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I enjoy reading your posts (including your contributions to the minor league forum). I think you're knowledgeable. But with all due respect, I'm willing to bet I'm better versed on the Ms player development than you may be. While perfectly understandable, not remembering or appreciating that Jones already has major league service time suggests you've chosen to focus on other teams more diligently. It's not a criticism of you. I'm just wondering why you'd automatically assume more knowledge of the Ms system than a professed Ms junkie.
    Honestly, I'm not getting any prospect sense from you other than you happen to read a few lists and can quote some current stats. No perspective. No individual insight. I read lists and look up stats as well. Been tracking minor league progress into the majors since the late '80s. The Mariners don't exist in a bubble.

    Jones' cup of coffee last season does not constitute a full apprenticeship. He's going to face a harsh adjustment. In fact, the PCL-to-Safeco adjustment is probably harsher than most.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I've actually argued that if the Ms acquired Jr it would create a roster log jam that given Bavasi's biases would almost certainly preclude Jones getting significant playing time.
    Yeah, God forbid you crowd a roster with talent. That'll never work.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Really analyses like this are missing context. Rickie Weeks and Felix Pie don't inform Jones' performance any more than Pence and Braun do
    You've yet to offer up a single reason why Jones is so easily projectable while so many others aren't. Given your "informed" understanding of the Mariner front office can you explain why the franchise has yet to agree with you on this point? If Adam Jones is an obvious given I assume he'd be playing in the majors ... unless, you know, there's some doubt that he is an obvious given. Mind you, I'd still play him, back to the whole nothing to lose argument, but it's unlikely he'll provide any sort of immediate significant offensive boost.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    My argument about Safeco's left field is pretty straightforward.
    You've got a real crooked straightforward.

    1) Once again, good defense always helps.
    2) Yet the Mariners have in the past played poor LF defenders in Safeco and still had great defense and quality clubs. LF defense is hardly an essential to success there.
    3) The Mariners rank near the bottom of the pile in DER and LF defense isn't going to change that.
    4) I'd play Adam Jones. The connection you continually fail to make is that playing Adam Jones most likely isn't going to turn the Seattle Mariners into a playoff team.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    But you've argued Jr would.
    I've argued Jr. could. Yes, I do think getting a big LH power bat onto a team almost bereft of LH power could be a major acquisition (obviously he'd have to stay healthy, something I never take for granted with Jr.).

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    A compelling case has been made.
    Good to know you agree with yourself.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    But spending a boat load of money and talent on Jr wouldn't change things this year and would have consequences for the future.
    Adding frontline talent always changes things. Would it change things enough? Hard to say because the Mariners are really overachieving. As for the future, doesn't look so bright that the Mariners need to worry about shades. This could be the only open window that franchise sees for the next few years.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  6. #80
    Beer is good!! George Anderson's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfan4445 View Post

    Also Pete Rose was on Furmans show yesterday, said that last year when the Reds blew it on that west coast trip, he was at Dodger stadium during one of those 3 games and NARRON "MR Baseball Guy" came up to him and asked him if he could give the team a pep talk as he couldnt motivate them"
    I find this hard to believe since Pete isnt allowed anywhere near a field or clubhouse.
    "Boys, I'm one of those umpires that misses 'em every once in a while so if it's close, you'd better hit it." Cal Hubbard

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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by George Anderson View Post
    I find this hard to believe since Pete isnt allowed anywhere near a field or clubhouse.
    Maybe they were all going to meet at the track instead?

    Pete still goes there daily.

  8. #82
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Maybe they were all going to meet at the track instead?

    Pete still goes there daily.
    I would say that scenario is more likely than Pete actually telling the truth about something.
    "Boys, I'm one of those umpires that misses 'em every once in a while so if it's close, you'd better hit it." Cal Hubbard

  9. #83
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Griffey to Seattle?

    Not to beat a dead horse even more by continuing this thread, but some interesting issues where brought up.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Now, wait a second. Bavasi's words and record indicate that he doesn't trust kids, but "he would indeed play Adam Jones"?

    I'll say it again. I'd play Adam Jones too. However, the Mariners aren't yet doing that.
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/bo...00708030.shtml


    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Honestly, I'm not getting any prospect sense from you other than you happen to read a few lists and can quote some current stats. No perspective. No individual insight. I read lists and look up stats as well. Been tracking minor league progress into the majors since the late '80s.
    Actually, I don't read lists. I could care less if someone thinks Adam Jones is the tenth ranked player in the minors or the 1000th.

    I do spend as much time watching as possible as well as corresponding with others who get to watch even more than I do. It takes alot of effort which is why it seems nearly impossble for someone to have an in depth appreciation of player development in more than one or maybe two teams without actually doing it for a living. I'm a hack obviously but I'm a dedicated one. If your standard is that no one other than a professional scout etc can have useful, correct insight, I'm not really sure why you'd offer a counterpoint.

    BTW, I've seen Jones at Tacoma several times over the last two seasons as well as several times when he was with Wisconsin. The eyes and the stats are in perfect harmony on this one IMHO. Interestingly, you'll have to look long and hard to find someone in the industry who disagrees so while I may be guilty of a bias, I'm comfortable with it.

    It bears repeating once again, no one has argued that Jones will OPS at .970 as a Mariner this year. I've basically suggested he'll be slightly above league average offensively while playing plus defense. That as a package represents an upgrade over Ibanez.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    The Mariners don't exist in a bubble.
    I'm still at a loss as to why you argue context is meaningless.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Jones' cup of coffee last season does not constitute a full apprenticeship. He's going to face a harsh adjustment. In fact, the PCL-to-Safeco adjustment is probably harsher than most.
    But as noted below, it's a transition that can modeled so it's effect on his potential performance can be quantified. We can get a pretty reasonable idea of what to expect from his bat.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    You've yet to offer up a single reason why Jones is so easily projectable while so many others aren't.
    I'd argue that minor leaguers ARE projectable.

    Bill James was one of the first to begin promoting this truth:
    As a guide to major league performance, minor league batting statistics are reliable virtually 100% of the time. . .In
    anticipating future major league performance, minor league batting records are of essentially the same degree of reliability as previous major league batting statistics.
    - 1985 Baseball Abstract
    By this he wasn't suggesting minor league performance was directly translatable but rather, after a series of corrections, minor league stats and major league stats could essentially be compared on an apples to apples basis.

    It's important to make a distinction here-a player is projectable in the sense that his future performance can be accurately predicted. This in no way implies that projectability means he'll equal his unadjusted minor league numbers. And that is the rub. Bill James argued that a player's translated minor league numbers are reflective of his ability relative to the majors. The raw numbers are almost always going to be influenced by too many factors such as run scoring environment, competition level, park factors etc to be directly interpretable.

    More recently projection systems like Pecota have built upon this foundation to actually project a player's performance by building a list of comparables to model a player's potential development. Basically James said this is how a player would've been in the majors based upon his performance in the minors. Pecota and other systems say this is what that player can become in the majors. As more detailed minor league/college data have become accessible, these systems have become much more reliable even with rookies/prospects. There is alot of room to grow in this regard (especially with issues like aluminum bats and college performance) but as the databases continue to grow, so too is the precision of projection.

    You posted a list of players as proof that the performance of prospects can't be predicted. Basically you seem to be arguing that since the major league numbers put up by these players don't resemble their minor league numbers, these players are proof that prospects can't be projected.

    Even though the list was a small sample, for kicks I compared Pecota's weighted mean projected OPS for each player's first significant major league season vs their actual OPS. Below is a summary:
    Code:
    Player		Year    Pecota 	Actual	 A-P  % miss
    Upton		2004	0.626	0.733	0.107	 17
    Young		2006	0.805	0.812	0.007	 1
    Dukes		2007	0.803	0.709  -0.094	-12
    Markalis	2006	0.756	0.799	0.043	 6
    Lind		2006	0.737	1.015	0.278	 38
    Kubel		2004	0.670	0.791	0.121	 18
    J. Fields	2007	0.787	0.705  -0.082	-10
    Kendrick	2006	0.804	0.730  -0.074	-9
    C. Jackson	2006	0.798	0.810	0.012	 2
    Drew		2006	0.809	0.874	0.065	 8
    Young		2006	0.840	0.694  -0.146	-17
    Quentin		2006	0.809	0.872	0.063	 8
    Kouzmanoff	2006	0.723	0.690  -0.033	-5
    Weeks		2005	0.765	0.727  -0.038	-5
    Pie		2007	0.822	0.617  -0.205	-25
    Hermida		2006	0.800	0.716  -0.084	-11
    To summarize, Pecota projected the OPS of 8 players within 9% of their actual performance. Pecota only missed by more than 1 SD twice with one player significantly out performing his projection (Lind) and the other significantly under performing it (Pie). Of the 6 remaining players, two out performed their projections (Upton and Kubel) and the remaining 4 under performed them. Basically 63% of the list either met or exceeded Pecota's projected performance. Only one player completely flopped (Pie).

    So there is a big difference between whether a player's performance is projectable or whether a player duplicates the numbers he put up in the last year of his minor league career (which nobody should reasonably expect anyway).

    Just for fun, I went back and examined the how accurately Pecota projected the OPS for all rookies that had atleast 50 PAs in 2006. Of the 82 qualifying players, 65% of them either tied (defined as within +/- .035 of OPS; i.e. within 5%) or bested Pecota's projection. Of the 35% that performed worse than expected based upon Pecota, only a third performed lower than 1 SD of their projected OPS. So basically two thirds of all rookies in 2006 performed either within 5% or they bested their projection. Only 12% of all rookie in 2006 performed below 1 SD of their projected OPS.

    I'd suggest that minor leaguers are projectable. While this was rough justice, there just isn't this pandemic of prospects who are failing-at least not in 2006. IMHO those that advocate flipping near major league ready prospects for *proven* major league talent overetimate the risk associated with the development of players that have reached the high minors (especially those players that rocket through systems at young ages).

    Now consider Adam Jones. Pecota projects him as basically sightly above league average for an AL left fielder. His comparability score of 56 (off the charts) suggests if ever there was a player they think they've pegged, it would be him. Interestingly, Bill James, Marcel, and CHONE all essentially project Jones identically to Pecota.

    Really the onus is on you to explain specifically why Jones ISNT a good bet to OPS somewhere around .750.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    You've got a real crooked straightforward.

    1) Once again, good defense always helps.
    2) Yet the Mariners have in the past played poor LF defenders in Safeco and still had great defense and quality clubs. LF defense is hardly an essential to success there.
    3) The Mariners rank near the bottom of the pile in DER and LF defense isn't going to change that.
    4) I'd play Adam Jones. The connection you continually fail to make is that playing Adam Jones most likely isn't going to turn the Seattle Mariners into a playoff team.
    Basically we disagree. You're undervaluing the impact of good defense in Safeco's leftfield as well as the impact of substituting a plus defender for arguable one of the worst defensive outfielders in the majors. The Mariners are currently on top of the wild card chase and only 2 games out of their division. Jones' defense alone in left field would go a long way toward closing that gap.

    I don't understand the counter argument frankly. You upgrade what you CAN upgrade.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I've argued Jr. could. Yes, I do think getting a big LH power bat onto a team almost bereft of LH power could be a major acquisition (obviously he'd have to stay healthy, something I never take for granted with Jr.).
    But the numbers just don't crunch in way that suggests the addition of Jr would be that big of a boost-and those numbers weren't park or league adjusted which obviously would hurt Jr.


    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Adding frontline talent always changes things. Would it change things enough? Hard to say because the Mariners are really overachieving. As for the future, doesn't look so bright that the Mariners need to worry about shades. This could be the only open window that franchise sees for the next few years.
    First, I don't agree about the window statement. The core of their infield and outfield is locked up. Time will only allow them to cut chaff like Sexson/Vidro etc. Felix and the pen are here to stay for a while and there are some nice position players in the high minors with a certifiable stud (Triunfel) in low ball. The biggest issue is starting pitching.

    It may be the fan in me (well ok it is the fan in me), but when the Ms have been outscored 13 to 76 in six really painful games, I'm not so concerned that the pythag thinks they're lucky. The Ms are a good but flawed team. If you're arguing LAA, Detroit, Cleveland and Boston are better and are more likely to make the playoffs, you won't get an argument from me. Trading for Jr would've done nothing to change that. Calling up Jones and forcing platoons has a higher ceiling than trading for Jr and such an approach doesn't require breaking the bank or mortgaging the future.
    Last edited by jojo; 08-04-2007 at 11:39 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

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