Well we haven't seen Dumatrait in the pen this seaosn. I'd like to see him in that role in AAA. Perhaps his decent stuff and could make him more of an asset out of the pen. Maybe as a LOOGY.
What I do know is that the Reds are not going to get anything out of Dumatrait in the rotation, so I'd be trying to get any use possible out of him before deciding he's destined for a AAA career. I bet he would do better in the pen than in the rotation. He might actually be able to get some outs there. Sometimes bad starters can make it out of the pen.
Over that same time period he is walking 2.91 batters per 9 and striking out just 4.96 batters per 9. I just don't see him throwing enough strikes to get major league batters out at any consistant rate becuase when he puts the ball over the plate, guys arent missing that much.
It's basically because he has a terrible K/BB ratio (amongst other things, of course). History shows that those are the pitchers who have a tendency to be terrible in MLB.
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Do I get a kewpie doll for being the first to mention him in this thread?
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Sure do M2.
Can we get this thread re-titled? It caused me to make an ass of myself in the ORG. That's right. It's not my fault. It's someone else's.
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I havn't had a chance to dig deep into his numbers, now looking at him a little more I can see what your saying. It drives me crazy how our local media tells it one way and the actual numbers tell it another. If I'm not getting info here it comes from wlw or 980/1530 and going by the clowns on the radio it's a crime that this guy isn't up yet. I guess I will need to be a little more careful where I soak up my opinions, or take a trip to Louisville to see for myself.
One of the chief values of this site, IMO, is it's ability to sift through the noise in the traditional media and get us all a little closer to the realities of the game.
I'm sure we've all had that "but I heard/read something different" moment where we've realized the established media was blowing smoke in our faces.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
I'm a little clueless when it comes to some stats and I have a couple of questions I was hoping you guys could help me out with:
1. What's an average BB/9, K/9, HR/9, and K/BB ratio for your average major league pitcher (if a league needs to be specified, the NL)?
2. I know relying on W/L is pretty pointless, but I've always thought ERA was a flawed yet decent way to judge pitchers. Which stats would you primarily use to judge a pitcher over ERA?
3. What's would a good league average OPS for the NL?
1.) Average? Not sure. Let's say decent. And remember, this is at the major league level.
BB/9: less than 3.0
K/9: greater than 6.0
K/BB: greater than 2.0
HR/9: less than 1.0
2.) ERA is pretty flawed. Those 4 stats you just mentioned are at the top of my list. I'd also look at GB/FB ratio. Higher tends to be better, but it's more about context. You can have a lower K/9 if you have a very high GB/FB, for example. Maybe throw in some measurement of luck such as BABIP (versus eBABIP) or a measurement of offensive performance against such as Opponents OPS.
3.) Ask and ye shall receive: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=6516 (free!) The short answer is the last table posted about 2/3 of the way down.
Future Shock
Positional Differences
by Kevin Goldstein
I talk a lot about positional expectations when discussing prospects, and although it’s a fairly vague idea, it comes with some logic behind it. Obviously, a first base prospect has to hit more to make it than a shortstop does, or a center fielder who has to move to a corner needs to provide more offense to offset the change in positions. These are obvious things, but what happens when we try to quantify the logic behind these generally accepted rules?
To try to get a feel for each position, I compiled (or more accurately, I had William Burke compile for me) the statistics for the 30 players at each position with the most starts at that position over the last three seasons. That let us eliminate players who had jobs here and there, but are not purely defined as starters—guys in just because of injuries or bad planning—and instead lets us focus solely on guys who have jobs year in and year out. For each position, we then calculated the average players at each position, as well as splitting them into four groups, with some overlap—three sets of 10 (Top 10, Middle 10, Bottom 10), and then just the top five, or the ‘elite’ players at the position.
Let’s start by looking at the average lineup. For these purposes, I use my own version of statistical notation, which instead of 162 games is 675 plate appearances, and 600 for catchers.
So that’s your Joe Average squad. It’s pretty clear that even with just a league-average pitching staff, this team would still win significantly more than 81 games, as this team was able to get full-time work out of every starter, rarely having to use backups. That said, there’s no superstar on the team, nobody slugging over .500 or reaching base at more than a .370 clip. Still, it’s a nasty lineup with no easy outs. The most interesting aspect of this set for me was the batting average, with all eight positions falling within a ten-point range from .272-.281. That tells me that it’s the secondary skills that make all the difference.Code:POS AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG C 541 147 30 1 15 45 83 3 2 .272 .332 .415 1B 586 166 36 2 27 75 109 3 2 .283 .369 .490 2B 606 170 34 4 14 52 90 12 4 .281 .342 .421 3B 600 167 36 3 22 61 106 9 3 .277 .347 .458 SS 612 170 33 5 14 48 93 18 6 .278 .334 .415 LF 597 167 35 4 24 65 110 12 4 .281 .354 .471 CF 604 168 31 6 17 55 101 23 7 .278 .342 .435 RF 597 167 35 3 23 64 108 9 4 .280 .353 .461
A quick matrix using only OPS shows the differences between the positions, and how a switch of positions for a prospect might affect offensive expectations.
Basically, you read this from left to right. If you have an average offensive catcher and you move him to first base, he needs to gain 110 points of OPS in his projection in order to be considered an average performer at his new position.Code:TO/FROM C 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF C --- 110 14 57 1 77 29 67 1B -110 --- -96 -53 -109 -33 -81 -43 2B -14 96 --- 43 -13 63 15 53 3B -57 53 -43 --- -56 20 -28 10 SS -1 109 13 56 --- 76 28 66 LF -77 33 -63 -20 -76 --- -48 -10 CF -29 81 -15 28 -28 48 --- 38 RF -67 43 -53 -10 -66 10 -38 ---
Now, if we go to the elite group, things change a bit. Here’s your average elite player—again, average of the top five players at each position:
This is stud city, obviously, and it's no surprise that power shows up in spades; it's the biggest difference between the merely good and the truly great players. A less obvious point of difference is the gap between average, good, and great players for each position, which becomes greater as we move into the impact players. Here’s a chart showing the average OPS for each positions three groupings, as well as the top five. I realize that OPS is far from the perfect statistic, but I’m using it for a couple of reasons: it’s easy to calculate and understand, and it’s position-neutral, which is key for what we are doing here.Code:POS AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG C 528 159 34 2 19 61 78 3 1 .301 .375 .478 1B 572 176 36 1 39 92 115 6 2 .307 .405 .581 2B 600 180 42 2 22 59 99 14 5 .300 .367 .496 3B 588 184 39 2 35 75 110 11 3 .313 .394 .564 SS 609 194 38 5 18 54 92 17 6 .318 .377 .482 LF 573 176 37 3 33 88 118 7 2 .307 .402 .557 CF 594 168 30 4 28 67 108 19 4 .282 .359 .492 RF 588 176 35 1 29 74 94 14 4 .300 .380 .510
Looking at this information, we can turn to what it means for a couple of notable position-switch players. First, let's consider the lot of Pirates prospect Neil Walker: Walker moved from catcher to third base prior to the season. He's responded with his best year with the bat, hitting .293/.361/.481 for Double-A Altoona. For the sake of argument, let’s say that’s a reasonable expectation from Walker in the big leagues. Defense notwithstanding, that batting line would put him among the elite catchers in all of baseball, but as a third baseman, he’s merely above-average, and 60 points of OPS below where the average is for the top 10 players at the position. The gap between positions tends to increase as players get better as well. In other words, Walker needs an OPS that is 57 points higher to be considered an average offensive third baseman as opposed to an average catcher, but the difference between him and good ones is 76 points, and elite, 105 points. So, while he's grown, he really could stand to improve even further.Code:POS BAD AVG GOOD ELITE C 666 748 826 853 1B 758 858 952 987 2B 702 762 820 862 3B 718 805 902 958 SS 666 749 829 859 LF 745 825 915 959 CF 691 777 837 851 RF 766 815 867 890
Next, consider the plight of Cubs prospect Tyler Colvin. I’m going to pick on Colvin here because I just talked to a scout about him, who questioned whether or not he has the skills for center field, but this could really apply to any minor league outfielder who might have to move to a corner in the end, of which there are many. Now, Colvin’s had a very good year, reaching Double-A in his first full season, and he's batting .294/.321/.477 overall. That said, he has an aggressive approach and is more of a gap hitter as opposed to any future power threat who’s going to hit 30+ home runs a year. Taking his current batting line, he’d be above-average offensively as a center fielder, enough to be considered one of the betters ones around, but if he’s forced to a corner, and most likely right field because of his plus arm, he’s suddenly a liability with the bat and a below-average player for the position.
In the face of these kinds of normal moves, from a difficult position to an easier one, there's the example of Braves second baseman Kelly Johnson. Johnson's that rare incidence of someone going the other way. In his rookie campaign in the majors he was a left fielder, but he'd come up through the Braves' system as a shortstop, and while his range wasn't good enough to keep him there, moving him back into the infield by converting him to second base greatly increases his value, and in terms of helping shore up the lineup, it has been a key to the Braves season. Currently batting .288/.388/.477, Johnson would still be above-average in left field, but still well behind many players at the position, but those numbers put him in the elite class of hitters at second base.
So, you may want to clip that chart and laminate it, and refer to it any time a player makes a position change.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
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