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Thread: Hey, another Dunn thread (Paul Daugherty's take)

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    Reds 5:11 coachw513's Avatar
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    Hey, another Dunn thread (Paul Daugherty's take)

    Daugherty's OpEd this morning from the Enquirer:

    Wayne Krivsky's cellular telephone hangs like a cauliflower from his ear. Take your average teenager's phone time, multiply it by five and you're still not quite at Krivsky, who's on the line more than a bill collector. It's not for lack of effort that Adam Dunn is still a Red.

    Are the Reds close to dealing Dunn? Do they have any intention of dealing Dunn? Beats me. Krivsky declines to talk about players, publicly or in private. That tends to limit your conversations with the Reds general manager to TV and the weather. (Wayne's a big fan of "CSI" and warm sunshine.)

    Hunches abound the day before the non-waiver trade deadline. Here's another. Here is all that matters about Adam Dunn:


    The Reds can't afford him.

    You can haul out your geek sheets and quote chapter and verse about Dunn's OBA, OBP, OPS, HR and RBI and how he hits with RISP, OK? You can say the Reds won't match his power when he's gone. You can defend his defense by wondering who, over the years, has been better in left field, home of George Foster, Kalvoski Daniels and the Mitchellin Man, Kevin Mitchell.

    Doesn't matter.

    Unless the Reds bump the payroll to $100 million next year - Bob Castellini will grow date palms in his backyard before that happens - Dunn is a luxury they can't afford. When your payroll is likely to be something approaching $80 million, you can't toss one-sixth of it at a designated hitter. Especially when your bullpen has been declared a Superfund site by the Environmental Protection Agency.

    That's really the whole of it. It's why if the Reds don't trade Dunn by today, they will trade him by next April, even if it means picking up his $13 million option. It's not that Dunn makes too much money. It's that he makes too much here.

    Given what Cleveland just paid to extend Travis Hafner's deal - similar to what Dunn would get next season, for a player who doesn't currently have Dunn's numbers - Dunn is not overpaid.

    But you don't eat Belgian chocolates and drink Dom Perignon when you're making $500 a week. You might vacation on an island. You don't own one. The Reds have to do what they can with what they have. Spending $13 million on one, one-dimensional player is a waste of resources.

    Forget the notions that Krivsky is leery, from a perception standpoint, of trading Dunn and getting only prospects in return, or that he has been ordered by ownership to make a trade. Simple economics dictates to all involved that Dunn should not be here by Opening Day next year.

    Nothing personal; just business.

    Dunn will be moved to a team that can absorb his money and have enough left over to buy that island. The L.A. Angels, perhaps. Or, to a team that needs a bopper to showcase upon moving into its new ballpark, whose general manager has a personal relationship with Dunn. That'd be Jim Bowden and the Washington Nationals.

    In any case, if Dunn is a Red next year, the club will have missed a chance to change its personality and its chemistry. Ownership understands that.

    You like to have players who are consistent and durable. Dunn is all of that. But he's never going to be anything more than he is right now: A very good home run hitter who falls short in other categories, tangible and otherwise.

    Dunn vowed to become a "great" outfielder. You'd settle for average. He worked early this year at becoming a more mature hitter and for awhile, the line drives did settle in the opposite field gap. Now, he's on his way to striking out 190 times.

    If the Reds were winning or wealthy, nobody would be dogging a guy who has averaged 40 homers, 100 RBI and 100 runs for three years. You'd have to be nuts. On a winning, wealthy team, with serious player leadership, Dunn would be viewed as an essential cog.

    Only, the Reds don't win, they aren't rich and clubhouse leadership too often at 5 o'clock is reclining on a couch. Sports sociologists would say the "culture" needs changing. Plus, no team ever won big by hitting lots of home runs, if it couldn't pitch.

    Adam Dunn could be traded today. He could be traded five months from today. It's not personal. It's economics. Ownership understands.
    Color me here, by the way...and color me quite melancholy about the entire deadline...

    As wildly inconsistent as Lohse was, his deal was about economics, about being a FA and a Boras client...Lohse or Livingston, Dumatrait or even Belisle???...for me it is Lohse every day, but I understand, support and agree with the trade because of the end-game at the end of the season...

    Will it ever not be about $$ and cost???...will we ever get to a point that management is so well-effectively utilizing their assets (I understand this is a big part of the problem) that resigning Dunn is a non-issue (assuming he didn't want to break the bank) and deemed in fact "cost effective" (some believe it to be this way now I know)...

    I'm tired of losing, I'm tired of half-baked roster improvements, I'm tired of never having enough pitching and poorly constructed offenses...

    My youngest daughter is 7...she's been a Reds fan for 2 years now...her favorite player was FeLo and I watched her not understand and feel sad when he was traded...but she's an even bigger Reds fan this year...she owns 1 Reds shirt, of her favorite player, Adam Dunn...she watches every AB she can and just loves the big guy...and yesterday she with great conviction says "I'll never watch the Reds again if they trade Adam Dunn"...she will literally break down and cry if/when it happens today...it reminded me that being a fan of your favorite sports team isn't like it used to be in our past, when our guys were always going to be our guys...

    So I listen with great interest and check for updates every 30 minutes because I'm insanely passionate about this franchise...and if the rebuilding/housecleaning/dismantling takes place that in many ways I believe should take place, I'll still sit back and be very,very sad about having to root for another batch of Reds...like my daughter...


    You cannot defeat an ignorant man in an argument!
    -William Gibbs McAdoo

    Though many of us here are sure trying

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    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Hey, another Dunn thread (Paul Daugherty's take)

    Reads almost exactly like yesterdays "Dunn must go" column
    Go Gators!

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    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Hey, another Dunn thread (Paul Daugherty's take)

    Quote Originally Posted by coachw513 View Post

    I'm tired of losing, I'm tired of half-baked roster improvements, I'm tired of never having enough pitching and poorly constructed offenses...
    There in lies the biggest problem with the Reds of the last decade. The fear to make whole sale change. Even the 'fire sale' of 2003 wasn't really a firesale. We dealt a couple relievers and an OF who was a free agent to be, and the 3b who was the son of the guy just fired.

    This team needs to realize it's better to completely suck for a season or two [or three] than to wallow in mediocrity for 6 years or more because they falsely believe they can compete for a division title.

    Make some serious trades, or quit pretending you want to do anything other than not lose money. Right now Bob C's 'winning promise' was only lip service to draw fans into the stands.

    It's a business, we all get that, show us its a business you want to lead to the top and not just one you want to lead to marginal profitability.

    Championships for MY teams in my lifetime:
    Cincinnati Reds - 75, 76, 90
    Chicago Blackhawks - 10, 13
    University of Kentucky - 78, 96, 98, 12
    Cincinnati Bengals - None
    Chicago Bulls - 91, 92, 93, 96, 97, 98

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    Re: Hey, another Dunn thread (Paul Daugherty's take)

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed View Post
    Reads almost exactly like yesterdays "Dunn must go" column
    Actually, I think today's column is a follow-up response to Daugherty's on-air Q&A session with redreporter.com's Slyde. If anyone's interested, that conversation can be found here:

    http://www.redreporter.com/

    The link is on the article second from the top.

    Daugherty appears to be quite threatened by the pieces written by John Erardi (Slyde was one of the contributors to those articles). I'd suggest Daugherty should feel threatened, especially when he can't even be bothered to look at Dunn's contract (can't be dealt without his permission until way past next April, Paul).

    We've seen good baseball writing (Erardi) and good sport radio talk over the last couple days. Unfortunately, Daugherty missed both even though the latter occurred on his own radio show. Go figure.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

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    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Hey, another Dunn thread (Paul Daugherty's take)

    That article was absolutely terrible. He starts off with a cheap shot at the stat community, then echoes every Joe Sixpack misconception about Dunn. He didn't even get the economics right. He ignores the fact that Milton's millions will be gone from the payroll.

    Sounds like Lil' Paul is straining to resonate with the Dunn Hater crowd.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

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    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Hey, another Dunn thread (Paul Daugherty's take)

    Yeah, I listened to that on my way home from work and was disappointed.

    Underneath all the rhetoric, I thought Daughtery was a smart guy. I thought if he heard thge arguments and crunched the numbers, he'd understand Dunn's worth. But all he can harp on now is that the Reds can't afford Dunn's $13M next year and not really explain why.

    I think the question of can the Reds afford Dunn's 2008 $13M is a valid one, but PD doesn't say much else besides "no".

    Pay attention to the open sky

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    Re: Hey, another Dunn thread (Paul Daugherty's take)

    Trade him next April?

    I beleive if his option is picked up, he can't be traded until June 15, and then to restriced teams.

    If the Reds can afford $10M to Dunn this year, they can certainly afford to pay him $13M next year.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Hey, another Dunn thread (Paul Daugherty's take)

    I wonder where Daugherty got his econ degree. Clearly he doesn't understand that the ultimate goal is winning, that winning requires production, and that production (often) requires money.

    If Daugherty looked at the Reds budget, he would see that we actually DO have the money to pay Dunn. Furthermore, if we won't pay money for production, then we cannot expect to get enough production to win. If we can't possibly win, then the Reds shouldn't exist and Daugherty should get another job.

    There are all kinds of arguments for trading Dunn that make a lot of sense. The "we can't afford him" one just doesn't work.

    I seriously wonder how connected people can simply screw up the realities so easily compared to a mere fan.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Hey, another Dunn thread (Paul Daugherty's take)

    Someone might want to tell the reds media and the Marty that when Texiera inks his $25 mil per year contract that Dunn at $13M isn't that bad. Heck when Lohse gets a multi year deal starting in the $7M range they might realize that this isn't the pre strike era and contracts go up each year.

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    Re: Hey, another Dunn thread (Paul Daugherty's take)

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Someone might want to tell the reds media and the Marty that when Texiera inks his $25 mil per year contract that Dunn at $13M isn't that bad. Heck when Lohse gets a multi year deal starting in the $7M range they might realize that this isn't the pre strike era and contracts go up each year.
    Nah. Prices stay constant. I can still go to a movie with a quarter, get a soda and popcorn, and walk out with a nickel.

    Darn tootin' I can!
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

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    Re: Hey, another Dunn thread (Paul Daugherty's take)

    This is from MLB trade rumors about Dunn:

    Surprisingly, with roughly four hours to ago, Adam Dunn's most likely suitor still appears to be the Washington Nationals.

    Will Carroll says that Dunn would love to be reunited with good friend Austin Kearns in Washington, and might sign an extension there. He could become the face of the franchise. The problem is that the Nats don't have what the Reds want, so a third team would have to get involved.

    Just speculating, but I could see some bad blood lingering between the two teams over the Gary Majewski thing. That has to make you wonder how Wayne Krivsky would ever let Dunn end up in Washington.

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    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Hey, another Dunn thread (Paul Daugherty's take)

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Nah. Prices stay constant. I can still go to a picture show with two bits, get a sarsaparilla and ribbon candy, and walk out with a nickel.

    Darn tootin' I can!
    Fixed.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

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    Re: Hey, another Dunn thread (Paul Daugherty's take)

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    Fixed.
    Everyone's a critic.:
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

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    CELEBRATION TIME RBA's Avatar
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    Re: Hey, another Dunn thread (Paul Daugherty's take)

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    Fixed.
    buffalo nickel?

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    You're soaking in it! MartyFan's Avatar
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    Re: Hey, another Dunn thread (Paul Daugherty's take)

    Quote Originally Posted by coachw513 View Post
    Daugherty's OpEd this morning from the Enquirer:


    Color me here, by the way...and color me quite melancholy about the entire deadline...

    As wildly inconsistent as Lohse was, his deal was about economics, about being a FA and a Boras client...Lohse or Livingston, Dumatrait or even Belisle???...for me it is Lohse every day, but I understand, support and agree with the trade because of the end-game at the end of the season...

    Will it ever not be about $$ and cost???...will we ever get to a point that management is so well-effectively utilizing their assets (I understand this is a big part of the problem) that resigning Dunn is a non-issue (assuming he didn't want to break the bank) and deemed in fact "cost effective" (some believe it to be this way now I know)...

    I'm tired of losing, I'm tired of half-baked roster improvements, I'm tired of never having enough pitching and poorly constructed offenses...

    My youngest daughter is 7...she's been a Reds fan for 2 years now...her favorite player was FeLo and I watched her not understand and feel sad when he was traded...but she's an even bigger Reds fan this year...she owns 1 Reds shirt, of her favorite player, Adam Dunn...she watches every AB she can and just loves the big guy...and yesterday she with great conviction says "I'll never watch the Reds again if they trade Adam Dunn"...she will literally break down and cry if/when it happens today...it reminded me that being a fan of your favorite sports team isn't like it used to be in our past, when our guys were always going to be our guys...

    So I listen with great interest and check for updates every 30 minutes because I'm insanely passionate about this franchise...and if the rebuilding/housecleaning/dismantling takes place that in many ways I believe should take place, I'll still sit back and be very,very sad about having to root for another batch of Reds...like my daughter...
    I understand what your daughter is thinking...I was 9 when Tony Perez was traded...then when Pete left and Joe was gone...I mean, wow...only difference which I am sure you can see is that Perez, Rose, Morgan, Foster and company accomplished something in the game...FeLo, Dunn, Kearns and anyone else from the last 10 years of this team and organization have not been able to get it done...so, if they are not getting it done here, move them along...it doesn't mean they are bad ballplayers, it means that the personnel on the field isn't the right combination...though I do think that FeLo and Kearns are average (maybe just below) and Dunn is best suited to be in the AL...if another NL team wants to build around him, more power too them.

    This organization will more than likely ALWAYS be about economics...unfortunately we are suffering the horrible aftershocks of Lindner, Schott, DanO and Pants...of that group I like Pants the best and I don't like him at all.

    This organization has been swirling towards the drain for the last 10-12 years and when it finally caught up to them the previous ownership sold...now, Mr. C and Special K are faced with the daunting task of rebuilding an organization from the MLB product all the way down to low level minor leagues...it's been only a year and a half...not much time to unring all the bells that the previous two ownerships and GM's waved around...Reds fans need to forget the past 10 years...it was a black hole and start looking at this organization like it opened for business in February of 2006.

    I am sorry your little girl was upset to see FeLo go..and that she may need to find another player on the Reds to like if Dunn is traded...that's sort of the reality of being a Reds fan.
    "Sometimes, it's not the sexiest moves that put you over the top," Krivsky said. "It's a series of transactions that help you get there."


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