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Thread: Dunn's Worth on the Market

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    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Dunn's Worth on the Market

    I'm intrigued by what the Braves gave up in order to acquire Mark Teixeira. Seems to me he is a player very similar to Adam Dunn and he was the primary player in a trade that netted the Braves' top three prospects plus two more in the #10-20 range. That sounds like a boatload to me. I gotta believe if WK was offered anything like the Braves #1, 2 and 3 prospects he'd have jumped on it.

    Why is Teixeira worth so much more than Dunn and what exactly is Dunn worth?

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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's Worth on the Market

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Why is Teixeira worth so much more than Dunn and what exactly is Dunn worth?
    Hard to say without inside knowledge. The main advantage Teixeira has is that he is under the Braves control through 2008. Teams are not going to pay nearly as much for a 1/3 of a season rental.

    The optimal time for trading Dunn has passed and I think it is safe to say that the quote from the DDN makes is clear that Dunn has zero interest in staying in Cincinnati past 2008. He will likely be dealt in the summer of 2008 for kibbles and bits.
    Last edited by flyer85; 08-01-2007 at 12:02 PM.
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    Re: Dunn's Worth on the Market

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Why is Teixeira worth so much more than Dunn and what exactly is Dunn worth?
    Batting average, K's, and defense are the primary reasons Tex is worth more than Dunn IMO. Plus, he's under Atlanta's control through 2008.

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    Re: Dunn's Worth on the Market

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    Batting average, K's, and defense are the primary reasons Tex is worth more than Dunn IMO. Plus, he's under Atlanta's control through 2008.
    I think you're spot on. The contract situation is more iffy. The Reds made it clear that any team would have 48 hrs to extend Dunn's contract and for whatever it's worth Chris Welsh said last night that Dunn agreed to an extention with Jim Bowden before a deal with the Nats fell through.

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    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's Worth on the Market

    Position of need. Player control. Switch hitter. 30-40 points difference in BA. Slightly higher OBP [mostly due to the BA]. Better defensively.

    It's one of those things where Tex grades just slightly above Dunn in several categories and once you start adding up those points it turns into a larger difference overall.

    I love Dunn, I'm not a basher.

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    Re: Dunn's Worth on the Market

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I think you're spot on. The contract situation is more iffy. The Reds made it clear that any team would have 48 hrs to extend Dunn's contract and for whatever it's worth Chris Welsh said last night that Dunn agreed to an extention with Jim Bowden before a deal with the Nats fell through.
    I didn't know that. That's interesting. Who rejected the proposed trade, Jim or Wayne? Did Welsh mention what the Nationals were offering?

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    Re: Dunn's Worth on the Market

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    I didn't know that. That's interesting. Who rejected the proposed trade, Jim or Wayne? Did Welsh mention what the Nationals were offering?
    He said that Bowden pulled out over which minor leaguers the Reds wanted. He said their closer Cordero was agreed upon.

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    Re: Dunn's Worth on the Market

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    He said that Bowden pulled out over which minor leaguers the Reds wanted. He said their closer Cordero was agreed upon.
    No other names were mentioned, huh? We heard Wayne was asking for the moon so I wonder who else he asked for besides Cordero.

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    Re: Dunn's Worth on the Market

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    Did Welsh mention what the Nationals were offering?
    ... likely a load of crap.
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    Re: Dunn's Worth on the Market

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    He said that Bowden pulled out over which minor leaguers the Reds wanted. He said their closer Cordero was agreed upon.
    and the Nats farm system is almost entirely barren.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    Re: Dunn's Worth on the Market

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    No other names were mentioned, huh? We heard Wayne was asking for the moon so I wonder who else he asked for besides Cordero.
    I think he mentioned one more but I can't recall. Surely someone else watched the game and took note. I can't believe it hasn't been written about here on RZ yet.

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    Re: Dunn's Worth on the Market

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I think he mentioned one more but I can't recall. Surely someone else watched the game and took note. I can't believe it hasn't been written about here on RZ yet.
    No kidding. Especially with Dunn reportedly agreeing to an extension. You'd think that nugget of information would have generated a buzz on this board.

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    Re: Dunn's Worth on the Market

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    ... likely a load of crap.
    I heard it was Chris Booker, Branden Claussen, Hector Carrasco and Chris Michalek...:

    But seriously. What does it say about Dunn's value when one of his biggest fans turns down a deal for him over a couple of prospects from a 'barren' minor league system? This after coming to agreement on a contract extension.

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    Re: Dunn's Worth on the Market

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    Batting average, K's, and defense are the primary reasons Tex is worth more than Dunn IMO. Plus, he's under Atlanta's control through 2008.
    Before really thinking about it, control and defense were the big separators in my mind. Tex is considered an excellent defender. Dunn, well, we're familiar with his reputation.

    Going forward, Pecota predicts very similar VORPS for the two but since TX is a firstbaseman and Dunn is a leftfielder that means Pecota thinks Tex's bat will be better going forward (1b has a higher replacement level than LF). Assuming both hit their weighted mean projections and using 500 AB as a baseline, the expected difference is roughly 65 RC between '08 and '11 (which actually surprised me by its magnitude). Pecota likes Teixiera ALOT better than Dunn.

    Then when considering their overall values, defensive runs get added onto Tex and a good many get subtracted from Dunn's impact on the RS/RA equation.

    Really Teixiera isn't a very good comp for Dunn as Tex could very well be worth somewhere between 1.5-2.5 wins more a season than Dunn.
    Last edited by jojo; 08-01-2007 at 12:29 PM.
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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's Worth on the Market

    Quote Originally Posted by NJReds View Post
    I heard it was Chris Booker, Branden Claussen, Hector Carrasco and Chris Michalek...:

    But seriously. What does it say about Dunn's value when one of his biggest fans turns down a deal for him ovrt a couple of prospects from a 'barren' minor league system? This after coming to agreement on a contract extension.
    when you're team is bad and you're system is barren you obviously cannot afford to trade what little you do have. Plus JB knows that with the current position(last in the NL) of the Nats he can still make a waiver deal. He got Krivsky to take crap last year, maybe the same will happen again.

    I wouldn't be shocked if a trade happens in the next few weeks. Cordero is a decent closer who is about to get very expensive.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand


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