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Thread: Unrealistic expectations

  1. #1
    Hey Cubs Fans RFS62's Avatar
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    Unrealistic expectations

    One thing that never ceases to amaze me is the level of expectations baseball fans have for managers and general managers.

    In our case, we expect our GM hires to be Branch Rickey, Billy Beane and Bob Howsam all rolled into one.

    We expect our field managers to be Sparky Anderson.

    And who do we hire to fill these jobs? Pretty much men who have little if any actual experience on the major league level in that job description.

    We hire general managers who have worked under successful mentors for years and are deemed "ready" for their shot at the show.

    We hire field managers who have either toiled in the minor leagues, played in the big leagues, or maybe both.

    We pay them all on the low end of the scale for major league jobs.

    Then we we scratch our heads when they don't win every trade and push every right button in every situation.

    You get what you pay for. We do on the job training in Cincinnati.

    No matter how smart or how prepared you may be from years of watching someone else do the job well, it's different when you get the big chair.

    Every complicated job is like that. All the romantic stories about how Sparky came in and led the Big Red Machine to glory gloss over the fact that he inherited a stud filled lineup. The personnel made Sparky good, and he got great as he grew and learned his craft on its highest level.

    Krivsky, no matter how smart he may or may not be, is still learning on the job, as ALL first time GMs are... as Billy Beane did.... as John Schurholtz did.... as Walt Jocketty did.

    Narron did too, to a lesser degree, after a brief stint in Texas.

    You pay for experience and a track record. We don't pay. We throw them down a well, don't teach them how to swim, don't throw them a rope, then we get mad at them when they drown.
    Last edited by RFS62; 08-02-2007 at 09:07 AM.
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
    ~ Mark Twain

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  3. #2
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Unrealistic expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by RFS62 View Post
    One thing that never ceases to amaze me is the level of expectations baseball fans have for managers and general managers.

    In our case, we expect our GM hires to be Branch Rickey, Billy Beane and Bob Howsam all rolled into one.

    We expect our field managers to be Sparky Anderson.

    And who do we hire to fill these jobs? Pretty much men who have little if any actual experience on the major league level in that job description.

    We hire general managers who have worked under successful mentors for years and are deemed "ready" for their shot at the show.

    We hire field managers who have either toiled in the minor leagues, played in the big leagues, or maybe both.

    We pay them all on the low end of the scale for major league jobs.

    Then we we scratch our heads when they don't win every trade and push every right button in every situation.

    You get what you pay for. We do on the job training in Cincinnati.

    No matter how smart or how prepared you may be from years of watching someone else do the job well, it's different when you get the big chair.

    Every complicated job is like that. All the romantic stories about how Sparky came in and led the Big Red Machine to glory gloss over the fact that he inherited a stud filled lineup. The personnel made Sparky good, and he got great as he grew and learned his craft on its highest level.

    Krivsky, no matter how smart he may or may not be, is still learning on the job, as ALL first time GMs are... as Billy Beane did.... as John Schurholtz did.... as Walt Jocketty did.

    Narron did too, to a lesser degree, after a brief stind in Texas.

    You pay for experience and a track record. We don't pay. We throw them down a well, don't teach them how to swim, don't throw them a rope, then we get mad at them when they drown.
    This is a bit of a red herring. I pointed out earlier this season that Jerry Narron pay wasn't far out of whack with regards to some other managers who are having success. For example, and it jumps out at you, he was just below Willie Randolph. Elsewhere you see Grady Little and Charlie Manuel.

    I think you'd have to look at a multitude of factors to determine whether there's a correlation. Years of experience, ML and minor league; team's payroll, coaching staff etc.

    It's just too simple to say the Reds' woes are due to the lower pay of their manager and GM. It's easy to throw out the old axiom "you get what you pay for", but I don't think it's that simple in baseball.

    source Bill Madden, NY Daily News
    Joe Torre, NYY $7.5 million
    Lou Piniella, CHC $3.5 million tied with MIL
    Bobby Cox, ATL $3 million
    Tony La Russa, STL $2.8 million
    Mike Scioscia, LAA $2 million
    Jim Leyland, DET $2 million
    Bruce Bochy, SF $1.75 million
    Terry Francona, BOS $1.65 million
    Phil Garner, HOU $1.5 million
    Mike Hargrove, SEA $1.3 million
    Ron Gardenhire, MIN $1.25 million
    Ozzie Guillen, CHW $1.1 million
    Eric Wedge, CLE $1.025 million
    Jim Tracy, PIT $1 million
    Bob Melvin, ARI $875,000
    Buddy Bell, KC $825,000
    Ned Yost, MIL $825,000 tied with CHI-N
    Clint Hurdle, COL $800,000
    Charlie Manuel, PHI $800,000
    Willie Randolph, NYM $700,000
    Jerry Narron, CIN $600,000
    Grady Little, LAD $600,000
    Sammy Perlozzo, BAL $600,000
    Ron Washington, TEX $600,000
    Joe Maddon, TAM $550,000
    John Gibbons, TOR $500,000
    Manny Acta, WAS $500,000
    Bob Geren, OAK $500,000

    Blue represents Division leaders; Red, of course, is our beloved team

  4. #3
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Unrealistic expectations

    I agree and disagree with your statement. I think most of the fans have unrealistic expectations of the front office. It is not a little over a year and a half into Krivsky tenure and people are already barking becaues the reds don't have a winner on the field. What we as fans also dont know is what roll the owner or the financial officer has in the decisions that are made. For example what happens if Krivsky had Jr traded a few weeks ago. However Allen runs into Cast's office and says you cant trade Jr we will lose too much money if you do. None of us fans are privy to the discussions that happen within the front office. IMO the biggest thing for GM's is that the owner and fan base let a guy come in and make the changes he wants to make. He has a plan and just because the media doesn't print the plan let the GM see his plan happen.

    As for the field manager you get what you pay for. IMO over the past 10 years the reds had one manager who knew what he was doing. This isn't rocket science, it is just watching the game being played. Guys like Knight, Boone, Miley, and Narron have no pull over most of the players here. They have no past history of success. They micro managed the players they could and made decisions that left you scratching your head. IMO a good manager can be worth 10 games a season. A bad manager can lose you 15-20 games a season. The problem is that this is hard to quantify. Moves a manager makes, esp in regards to pitching, can hurt a team for the next week. A move made in one game may have an effect on the games played for the rest of a series.

    You need to find the right type of manager for your club. The style of a manager effects each team differently. I look at Joe Torre and wonder why he is such a good manager. Many people would fail in that Yankee situation because of the ego's, payroll, expectations, but Torre massages each player differently and wins games. IMO Torre wouldn't make a good manager of this reds club. His style of managing wouldn't work with the reds. The most important thing for a front office to find a manager is to find the one who best fits the personality of our club.

  5. #4
    Hey Cubs Fans RFS62's Avatar
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    Re: Unrealistic expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz View Post
    This is a bit of a red herring. I pointed out earlier this season that Jerry Narron pay wasn't far out of whack with regards to some other managers who are having success. For example, and it jumps out at you, he was just below Willie Randolph. Elsewhere you see Grady Little and Charlie Manuel.


    I'm not saying it's due to low pay. I'm saying the low pay is a reflection of their experience, or lack thereof.

    It's the lack of experience that I'm talking about in both positions.

    I've trained a lot of very bright people over the years in my line of work. They all knew the job very well on an academic level before they moved up to making in the field decisions.

    Invariably, once you get the job and the decisions become your own, you realize how much more to it there is than you could have ever imagined, no matter how well prepared or educated about the job description you may be.

    There is a tremendous benefit to time on the job when you are calling the shots. You learn a lot, no matter how smart or how well prepared you may be.

    That's what we've been doing. On the job training in key positions.
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
    ~ Mark Twain

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    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Unrealistic expectations

    RFS62, thanks for the clarification. Doesn't it place us in a quandry with folks wanting to throw people overboard and then beginning again (even with more experienced people having to learn our system and it's assets)? A

    It's interesting that over a third of the current managers are in their first managerial job (not counting the interims). Most are fairly successful this season (or in recent seasons), although some have endured some difficulties as they've grown in the job.

    The first timers are Scioscia, LAA; Guillen, CHI-A; Gardenhire, MIN; Wedge, CLE; Yost, MIL; Hurdle, COL; Randolph, NYM; Washington, TEX; Gibbons, TOR; Acta, WAS; and Geren, OAK. One more, Joe Maddon is in his first full-time gig having been a interim for about 20 games in two seasons prior to going to Tampa Bay.

    That's quite a collection and many of those clubs are in the hunt in their division or the Wild Card. Everybody has to learn at some point and sometimes there are difficulties. Heck, while Sparky had some experience managing in the minors, he was still "Sparky Who?" when he was introduced here. Now he's a Hall of Famer.

  7. #6
    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: Unrealistic expectations

    You are as good as what you throw out on the field, day in, day out. Therein lies the problem. Couple that with a small payroll and a fast turnaround is usually not in the works.
    Talent is God Given: be humble.
    Fame is man given: be thankful.
    Conceit is self given: be careful.

    John Wooden

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    Member Marc D's Avatar
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    Re: Unrealistic expectations

    Inexperience does not make one see value in a Juan Castro, Cormier, Narron, Bray, Majewski, or a Stanton. Many people who have no GM experience whatsoever could have told you they are worthless before team resources were squanderd on them.

    Likewise, putting a small bet down on the long shot at the track and having a couple win does not indicate some kind of clairvoyance. If that trait was in place the first list wouldn't be so long.

    WK isn't being taken to task because he hasn't built a winner in less than 2 years. He's being taken to task because he hasn't shown any ability whatsoever, outside of dumpster diving, to do so.

    He's taken a bad team and made it worse. Tenure's got nothing to do with it, its a lack of ability. Let him wreck someone elses team to get his OJT.

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    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Unrealistic expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by Marc D View Post
    Inexperience does not make one see value in a Juan Castro, Cormier, Narron, Bray, Majewski, or a Stanton. Many people who have no GM experience whatsoever could have told you they are worthless before team resources were squanderd on them.

    Likewise, putting a small bet down on the long shot at the track and having a couple win does not indicate some kind of clairvoyance. If that trait was in place the first list wouldn't be so long.

    WK isn't being taken to task because he hasn't built a winner in less than 2 years. He's being taken to task because he hasn't shown any ability whatsoever, outside of dumpster diving, to do so.

    He's taken a bad team and made it worse. Tenure's got nothing to do with it, its a lack of ability. Let him wreck someone elses team to get his OJT.
    I would suggest that the ledger sheet is more heavily weighted on the good selections: Hatteberg, Phillips, Hamilton, Arroyo, Burton, Coutlangus, Gonzelez, re-upping Weathers and so on. Some would disagree with you have Bray on that list, and I think Stanton doesn't necessarily belong on your list either (as we're now seeing him).

    It's not a perfect world and there is plenty of give and take each way.

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    Re: Unrealistic expectations

    If i was an owner -I'd pay big for a GM with a good track record and spend a small amount on a manager.

    If you have a good GM who can implement and carry out an organizational philosophy and plan --then the Manager becomes just another employee to carry out that mission. If the GM is smart enough and knows what he's doing -you won't need a Manager who costs a lot.

    I guess i'm referring to the Billy Beane route.

  11. #10
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Unrealistic expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by Marc D View Post

    Likewise, putting a small bet down on the long shot at the track and having a couple win does not indicate some kind of clairvoyance.

    .
    Nor does giving the guy no credit for doing so. Krivsky tried to back fill the roster with vets b/c he had the budget to do so, there weren't a lot of better options available, and b/c he apparently believed they could be moderately competitive in a weak division. Unfortunately the bullpen imploded and Encarnacion, Freel and Ross really never showed up this year. Now we're dining on that sour fruit. It happens. Regardless, all the hand wringing and second guessing in the world doesn't change the fact that a lot of folks here have unbelievably unrealistic expectations and can't divine the difference between short term stop gap acquisitions and long term strategy.

    Will Krivsky turn out to be a bad GM? Quite possibly. But just b/c he's not shaking it off for you after you pee doesn't mean he's clueless.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  12. #11
    Member Marc D's Avatar
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    Re: Unrealistic expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    Regardless, all the hand wringing and second guessing in the world doesn't change the fact that a lot of folks here have unbelievably unrealistic expectations and can't divine the difference between short term stop gap acquisitions and long term strategy.
    So appearantly you can? I would like some enlightenment on this. What exactly is his long term strategy? I ask because I haven't seen the first indicator he has one.

    Nice to know we have a non angry clairvoyant in our midst.

    But just b/c he's not shaking it off for you after you pee doesn't mean he's clueless.
    You stay classy.

  13. #12
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Unrealistic expectations

    Nice to know we have a non angry clairvoyant in our midst.
    At least it's a different path up the mountain to Frankensteins house that the rest of the mob takes every day.

  14. #13
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Unrealistic expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by Marc D View Post
    So appearantly you can? I would like some enlightenment on this. What exactly is his long term strategy? I ask because I haven't seen the first indicator he has one.


    I don't know. But I'm willing admit that I don't unlike a good many of you who seem to have such a great idea of what's going on.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  15. #14
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Unrealistic expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    At least it's a different path up the mountain to Frankensteins house that the rest of the mob takes every day.
    In the velvet darkness of the blackest night
    Burning bright, there's a guiding star
    No matter what or who you are.

    There's a light over at the Frankenstein Place
    There's a light burning in the fireplace
    There's a light, light in the darkness of everybody's life.

    I can see the flag fly, I can see the rain
    Just the same, there has got to be
    Something better here for you and me.

    There's a light over at the Frankenstein Place
    There's a light burning in the fireplace
    There's a light, light in the darkness of everybody's life.

    The darkness must go down the river of nights dreaming
    Flow morphia slow, let the sun and light come streaming
    Into my life, into my life.

    There's a light over at the Frankenstein Place
    There's a light burning in the fireplace
    There's a light, light in the darkness of everybody's life.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  16. #15
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    Re: Unrealistic expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    Cue squirt guns and newspapers
    In the velvet darkness of the blackest night
    Burning bright, there's a guiding star
    No matter what or who you are.

    There's a (Cue lighters) light over at the Frankenstein Place
    There's a light burning in the fireplace
    There's a light, light in the (Lighters off; scream "virgin" at anyone still holding a lighter) darkness of everybody's life.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful


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