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Thread: Jay Bruce, why not.

  1. #46
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce, why not.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    They cant just let him walk and take the picks. They have to offer him arbitration. That will be a lot more than the 13 million they will have to pay him. They also would have to pay him $500,000 just to offer him arbitration. I don't think that makes any business sense. I don't think the Reds do either.

    You're half right about them having to offer Dunn arbitration in order to receive the 2 high picks.

    From 15 days after the end of the World Series until Dec 1, a player who is a Free-Agent may sign with another club and the former club receives compensation.

    By Dec 1st, then the former club must offer arbitration to the player.

    Doing so makes a lot of business sense to me if they don't believe they can get a better deal than the two picks. They just finished discovering Dunn's value, so they know pretty much what he's worth. I'm certain in the discussions with other clubs, it was brought up, "If that's what he's worth to you now, what will he be worth to you over the winter if we pick up his option and you can have him for a full year?"

    Also, there's some misunderstanding on some people's part that the club can't trade Dunn before June 15th. That's not true. That rule only applies to Free Agents that sign "new" contracts during the signing period prior to June 15th, which begins 15 days after the end of the previous World Series. The REDS would be picking up an option of an existing contract if they chose to try to trade him over the winter.


    From the CBA:

    Eligibility
    A player with at least 6 years of Major League service time and no contract for the next season is eligible to file for free agency and negotiate with any club.

    Filing period

    A player has 15 days from the first day after the World Series ends to file for free agency.

    His former club retains exclusive negotiating rights until 15-day filing period expires, and the former club may re-sign the player at any time, during or after the filing period. During the filing period, a player who has filed for free agency may engage in general discussions with other clubs but may not discuss contract details or sign with them.

    Procedure

    A club receives compensation if it loses a free agent before December 2. See Free Agent Compensation.

    By December 1, each club must decide whether to offer salary arbitration to their former players who have filed for free agency. A club not offering arbitration may continue to negotiate with the player but does not receive compensation if he signs with another club.

    By December 7, player must accept or reject the arbitration offer. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his club’s 40-man roster. The player and club may continue to negotiate before the February arbitration hearing. See Arbitration. If the player rejects the offer, he may continue to negotiate with any of the 30 clubs.

    A free agent who signs a major-league contract may not be traded without his written consent before June 15 of the following season.
    Last edited by Eric_Davis; 08-03-2007 at 06:28 PM.
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  3. #47
    Member Jay Bruce's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce, why not.

    Dunn has a clause in his contract that stipulates that if the option is picked up, he cannot be traded until after June 15. It was a clause agreed to by both Dunn and the Reds in order to get the 13 million dollar option put into his contract. It has nothing to do with the contract rules in the CBA.

    Adam Dunn Contract Info:

    http://www.mlb4u.com/profile.php?id=919
    Last edited by Jay Bruce; 08-03-2007 at 07:19 PM.

  4. #48
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    Re: Jay Bruce, why not.

    great point J.B
    Reds fan since 1970

  5. #49
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce, why not.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jay Bruce View Post
    Dunn has a clause in his contract that stipulates that if the option is picked up, he cannot be traded until after June 15. It was a clause agreed to by both Dunn and the Reds in order to get the 13 million dollar option put into his contract. It has nothing to do with the contract rules in the CBA.

    Adam Dunn Contract Info:

    http://www.mlb4u.com/profile.php?id=919
    Well, then that gives the REDS even fewer options. Unless they were offered during the last month or so, something better than the 2 high draft picks, then it wouldn't make sense for them to pick up his option to try to trade him after June 15th of next year.

    The one thing they cannot do, because it would be financial suicide for the team, would be to pick up his option and keep him all year long. If they do pick up his option, then I have to believe they had better options than 2 high draft picks and that Dunn will be traded next June/July.

    The REDS have a surplus of outfielders and no pitching. It would be an absolutely moronic financial and baseball decision to pay Dunn any monies for 2008 when it can be spent on pitching unless the return they will get will be much greater than 2 high draft picks.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  6. #50
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce, why not.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    Well, then that gives the REDS even fewer options. Unless they were offered during the last month or so, something better than the 2 high draft picks, then it wouldn't make sense for them to pick up his option to try to trade him after June 15th of next year.

    The one thing they cannot do, because it would be financial suicide for the team, would be to pick up his option and keep him all year long. If they do pick up his option, then I have to believe they had better options than 2 high draft picks and that Dunn will be traded next June/July.

    The REDS have a surplus of outfielders and no pitching. It would be an absolutely moronic financial and baseball decision to pay Dunn any monies for 2008 when it can be spent on pitching unless the return they will get will be much greater than 2 high draft picks.

    Except the following year Griffey will be gone. There is no surplus long term. I see 3 starting caliber OF long term. Dunn, Bruce and Hamilton. Dorn maybe someday and Dickerson could be a 4th OF on a team with solid options all around and needs speed and defense on the bench. But Griffey is going to be gone, Freel is toast, Hopper is a late inning caddy at best IMO. Don't even start on Stubbs.

    This team needs to move Griffey. The team can not afford to be w/o both Griffey and Dunn in 2009 and letting Dunn go to keep Griffey one more year and then be left with neither seems like a recipe for failure IMO. Bruce provides a replacement for one. There isn't enough to replace both.
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  7. #51
    Raaaaaaaandy guttle11's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce, why not.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    They cant just let him walk and take the picks. They have to offer him arbitration. That will be a lot more than the 13 million they will have to pay him. They also would have to pay him $500,000 just to offer him arbitration. I don't think that makes any business sense. I don't think the Reds do either.
    Well, paying him half a mil is a lot better than picking up an option 26 times that amount if they have no plans for him long term. If and when they offer arbitration, he will probably decline it, and hit the market. The Reds will get 2 first round picks. Seems like perfect sense to me. (Again, not saying I advocate it, but it's the best option based off how the situation looks from the outside)

    If they don't view Dunn as a long term option (and let's not kid ourselves here, they don't), then letting him go is the only legit option they have short of trading him this month. Jay Bruce will be ready to go, Hamilton is here, and Griffey is staying on the books. They feel they need his star power. Keeping Dunn in the hopes that the team strikes gold or that his trade value suddenly skyrockets is the same holding pattern this team has been in for nearly a decade now. I don't think Cast will do that again. I think he's ready to move on from Dunn, and onto the young guns.

    I also think Cueto will be in the rotation on Opening Day, but that's a discussion for a different day.
    Last edited by guttle11; 08-03-2007 at 11:50 PM.
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  8. #52
    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce, why not.

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Except the following year Griffey will be gone. There is no surplus long term. I see 3 starting caliber OF long term. Dunn, Bruce and Hamilton. Dorn maybe someday and Dickerson could be a 4th OF on a team with solid options all around and needs speed and defense on the bench. But Griffey is going to be gone, Freel is toast, Hopper is a late inning caddy at best IMO. Don't even start on Stubbs.
    My thoughts exactly. It's pretty risky to count on a 2009 outfield of Bruce, Hamilton, and ??. Especially when Bruce hasn't played a day in the bigs yet and Hamilton has played only half of a season.

    I'm not even sure the surplus is gonna be a huge issue next year. Dunn, Hamilton, and Griffey will be the opening day starters but are you betting on the latter two to stay healthy all year? This year has been an exception, but KGJ has played more than 110 games only once in the past six seasons. Hamilton is having his own injury problems. I think if you start Bruce in AAA there's a pretty good chance that a spot opens up for him at some point next season. I know I don't want to see Freel and Hopper combining for 500 ABs next year.

  9. #53
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce, why not.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You can think that all you want. The numbers do not lie. Ryan Freel was 9 plays better than Hamilton was in CF in the first half. Ryan rated out as a +4 defender, while Hamilton was a -5 defender.The biggest difference in the two players is the balls that Freel gets to in the gaps that Hamilton simply doesn't. Hamilton has 5 assists, Freel has 3. Its not like Ryan Freel is Johnny Damon out there with his throwing arm. He has a pretty good arm. Its not Hamiltons, but its still pretty good.
    I see different numbers for Hamilton vs. Freel on zone rating. My numbers are from the Hardball Times stats pages:

    Pos Inn PO A TE FE FPct DPS DPT BIZ Plays RZR OOZ
    Freel CF 444 136 3 2 0 0.986 0 0 125 103 0.824 33
    Hamilton CF 385 115 5 0 2 0.984 4 0 113 101 0.894 14

    DPS: Double Plays Started, in which the fielder typically gets only an assist.
    BIZ: Balls in Zone, a fielding stat that represents the total number of balls that were batted into a fielder's zone while he was in the field.
    OOZ: Out Of Zone, or the total number of outs made by a fielder on balls hit outside of his zone.
    Zone: The areas on a ballfield in which at least 50% of batted balls are handled for outs. Zones are standardized and defined separately for each position.



    Freel does get more balls out of his zone, but Hamilton has a higher percentage in the zone. Hamilton clearly has the stronger arm.

    Then of course, there is hitting....
    Hamilton: .279/.371/.543 for an OPS of .914 (14 HRs)
    Freel: .245/.308/.347 for an OPS of .655 (3 HRs)

    Overall, a good metric to use is 'win shares'. Invented by Bill James, Win Shares is a very complicated statistic that takes all the contributions a player makes toward his team’s wins and distills them into a single number that represents the number of wins contributed to the team.

    Freel: fielding win shares; 1.4, batting 3.3
    Hamilton: fielding win shares; 1.3, batting 8.0

    Ryan Freel has played about 11 more games than Josh Hamilton at this point. So Hamilton has more win shares in less games....and the fielding is close to a wash.

    Oh and on Jay Bruce...bring him up for a cup of coffee after the AAA season is finished. Let him get the butterflies out this year. After tonight, he is hitting .314/.378/.640 for an OPS of 1.018 with 7 HRs in 24 games.
    Last edited by mbgrayson; 08-04-2007 at 02:27 AM.
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  10. #54
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce, why not.

    Quote Originally Posted by mbgrayson View Post
    I see different numbers for Hamilton vs. Freel on zone rating. My numbers are from the Hardball Times stats pages:

    Pos Inn PO A TE FE FPct DPS DPT BIZ Plays RZR OOZ
    Freel CF 444 136 3 2 0 0.986 0 0 125 103 0.824 33
    Hamilton CF 385 115 5 0 2 0.984 4 0 113 101 0.894 14

    DPS: Double Plays Started, in which the fielder typically gets only an assist.
    BIZ: Balls in Zone, a fielding stat that represents the total number of balls that were batted into a fielder's zone while he was in the field.
    OOZ: Out Of Zone, or the total number of outs made by a fielder on balls hit outside of his zone.
    Zone: The areas on a ballfield in which at least 50% of batted balls are handled for outs. Zones are standardized and defined separately for each position.



    Freel does get more balls out of his zone, but Hamilton has a higher percentage in the zone. Hamilton clearly has the stronger arm.

    Then of course, there is hitting....
    Hamilton: .279/.371/.543 for an OPS of .914 (14 HRs)
    Freel: .245/.308/.347 for an OPS of .655 (3 HRs)

    Overall, a good metric to use is 'win shares'. Invented by Bill James, Win Shares is a very complicated statistic that takes all the contributions a player makes toward his teamís wins and distills them into a single number that represents the number of wins contributed to the team.

    Freel: fielding win shares; 1.4, batting 3.3
    Hamilton: fielding win shares; 1.3, batting 8.0

    Ryan Freel has played about 11 more games than Josh Hamilton at this point. So Hamilton has more win shares in less games....and the fielding is close to a wash.

    Oh and on Jay Bruce...bring him up for a cup of coffee after the AAA season is finished. Let him get the butterflies out this year. After tonight, he is hitting .314/.378/.640 for an OPS of 1.018 with 7 HRs in 24 games.
    Right, but the amount of balls out of zone that Freel gets to more than makes up for the amount of balls he doesn't get to in his zone.

    http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2007/...e-ratings.html

    Go take a peak at that for a great view on how to use the zone rating and in balls out of zone to get a better overall view of how the defensive ratings go that I was speaking of.

    Hitting wise, its not close between the two.... but defensively, Freel is better in CF than Hamilton.

  11. #55
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce, why not.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Right, but the amount of balls out of zone that Freel gets to more than makes up for the amount of balls he doesn't get to in his zone.

    http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2007/...e-ratings.html

    Go take a peak at that for a great view on how to use the zone rating and in balls out of zone to get a better overall view of how the defensive ratings go that I was speaking of.... defensively, Freel is better in CF than Hamilton.
    Thanks for the link. I love JinAz's blog, and have been a reader for over a year. He does have great fielding stats, as you point out.

    Go to THIS LINK, which I found through your link: this is a direct comparison between Reds centerfielders, and like I noted above, Hamilton zone rating is higher. The reason it is different is that it does not factor in 'out of zone' plays into the percentage, which, as you noted, Freel is way ahead.

    Still, Freel's fielding win shares, which includes zone rating, is 1.4, compared to 1.3 for Hamilton. Basically a wash, considering that Hamiton has 11 fewer games. I do not know exactly how this is calculated, but I think it includes assists and double-plays started, where Hamilton is way ahead.

    Finally, for a different take, here are the links to ESPN's fielding stats, which use zone rating(ZR) and range factor(RF), as provided by STATS, Inc.

    Freel: ZR= .843 RF= 2.82
    Hamilton: ZR= .870 RF= 2.81

    Again, I submit that they are basically a wash. It all depends on which stats you trust more.

    Subjectively, I think Hamilton's arm is so good that it does equalize Freel's range. What doesn't show in the stats is how opposing runners stop trying to take the extra base in respect of Hamilton's arm. The last few weeks I have seen 3 or 4 plays to centerfield on sac flies or hits to center with a runner scoring from second that I said to myslef "Hamilton would have got him" after the runner scored on Freel. Maybe I was wrong....who knows. Maybe some of those runners wouldn't have tried to score on Hamilton.

    The new science of fielding stats is still evolving. But I must say Doug, it is nice to have an intelligent discussion of this topic without worrying about errors or fielding percentage.
    Last edited by mbgrayson; 08-04-2007 at 03:41 AM.
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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce, why not.

    Well my biggest thing is, a centerfielders zone, is typically singles area. When Freel has roughly 8 more games worth on action and 33 plays out of zone compared to 14 for Hamilton, that is a whole lot of doubles/triples that he has saved over Hamilton. So while Hamilton has that cannon and holds runners, I don't think it has made up for 19 out of zone plays, in which at least 75% probably were going for extra bases. I just wish Freel could read the ball off the bat like Hamilton.... or hit like Hamilton.... or throw like him.

  13. #57
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce, why not.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well my biggest thing is, a centerfielders zone, is typically singles area. When Freel has roughly 8 more games worth on action and 33 plays out of zone compared to 14 for Hamilton, that is a whole lot of doubles/triples that he has saved over Hamilton. So while Hamilton has that cannon and holds runners, I don't think it has made up for 19 out of zone plays, in which at least 75% probably were going for extra bases. I just wish Freel could read the ball off the bat like Hamilton.... or hit like Hamilton.... or throw like him.
    Some of Freel's plays out of zone are surely in the gap and saved doubles or triples. Many are of the running forward and diving variety, which saves a single.

    The other thing to look at is that Freel's ZR and RF are dropping, and he is 31 years old. One also wonders what impact his all-out play will have on whether he continues to have a high 'plays out of zone' number. How many more concussions can the man get? By the way, was his collision with Hopper one of those "plays out of zone"? I imagine it was...although I think Freel was playing rightfield in that game.

    Hamilton is still learning. He may get better jumps on balls with more experience. He is only 26, but who knows how durable he will be given his personal history.

    The other thing is that we are looking only at raw numbers of "plays out of zone". We don't get to see how many chances each fielder had to try to field those types of balls. And since we are dealing only with relatively small sample sizes for 2007, I am not yet convinced that Freel is necessarily that much better out of the zone.

    Also, you can't forget that Hamilton is .894 in the zone compared to .824 for Freel. That translated to about ten less hits allowed to date 'in zone' by Hamilton than Freel. That makes up over half of the extra out of zone outs Ryan recorded.

    That's itfor me tonight. Thanks for the good discussion.
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  14. #58
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce, why not.

    My 2 cents is that I personally would take the CF who can take away the dinks and dunks that fall in for hits, extend innings and make the pitcher work longer over the guy who can make the miracle catch in the gap once in a while. My biggest complaint with Griffey was always the bloops that fell for hits (it seemed like 2 or 3 every game while I was watching but I'm sure it wasn't that many) than it was the gappers that went for doubles. I think a defense should be designed based on solid coverage of the assigned area more than the occassional sensational play "outside of the zone."

    Defense is also very much a result of how the players on the team fit together out there. Right now that in the gap stuff looks pretty important because there are statues in both LF and RF. My guess is that with either Hamilton or Bruce in RF, the other could cheat a little toward LC and both gaps would be covered adequately and a big power guy with no range could still pass in LF. Sometimes defensive stats show that guys like Dunn and Manny cost teams more runs than they really do because many of those plays that they don't make that the stats hold against them are made anyway by other players. These stats are a decent reference and can be used to tell you which players can complement each other and which probably would create a hole if on the field together (something like an OF with Dunn in LF and Griffey in RF is probably going to be below average defensively), but just calculating a runs allowed or runs prevented number based on these stats in isolation could be misleading IMO.

    I don't know much about Bruce's arm, but from what I've seen of Hamilton, Bruce in CF and Hamilton in RF seems pretty good. My concern is that Bruce is still growing and as he fills out may not have the range long term for CF. I think Hamilton will be adequate out there into his 30's even though his arm is ideal for RF.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  15. #59
    Member FIRELEFT's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce, why not.

    I started paying attention to the red's organization in 2005.
    Honestly at that time I thought Jay was over rated.
    That year I saw him play in Billings and he had one of the prettiest swings i've ever seen, still not sold on him at the time.
    However, the last 2 years I have seen a man that is (IMHO)
    going to be very special.
    I think If it is between him setting at home or getting a little look at MLB. Call him up in Sept.
    I know there might be business reasons that they will not do that but take that out of the equation and he should go up.
    Really, if you think this young man is the future and a red you want for his career, then business, who cares call him up in Sept.
    Know with all that being said I am a novice at this.
    My sister is the pro on the scouting this is just some thoughts for a new fan.
    "Pitching is the art of instilling fear."
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    Re: Jay Bruce, why not.

    To me Jay Bruce has earned a September call up ( he's earned one even sooner but no reason to rush him ) let him get his 200 at bats at Louisville. Then recall him after their season ends , get him 50 ab's or so in September with the Reds , let him soak in big league life.

    Next spring let him compete for a spot on the 25 man roster , if Griffey or Dunn is moved and he shows in Spring Training he is ready , he makes the team and plays every day. At 21 , he'll struggle but he's shown this season at AA and AAA that he can adjust. If Dunn and Griffey are both still Reds and Hamilton is healthy , you have to start Jay at Louisville .

    Jay Bruce , is good enough he will force the Reds to find a spot for him . But at 20 now and 21 next season there is no need to rush him. He'll show the Reds its time . I watched Adam Dunn in the minors and was excited at the prospect of him being a Red. But Jay Bruce's total game is so far beyond Adam's at the same age I'd love to have the kids future as a big leaguer. The Reds have a player and from all accounts an outstanding young man that they can build their team around . The Chattanooga and Louisville announcers talk about Jay as not only a potentially great player but as a grounded very impressive young man thats a great combination to picture as a Red for years to come.


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