"Adam Dunn is Not a Run Producer"

[reds44]

Or so we are told. Let's take a look at how insane that statement is from Marty Brennaman.

2007 Reds Stats
Top 3 in each category

Home Runs
Adam Dunn 29
Ken Griffey Jr. 26
Brandon Phillips 20

RBIs
Adam Dunn 71
Ken Griffey Jr. 69
Brandon Phillips 64

Runs
Adam Dunn 68
Brandon Phillips 68
Ken Griffey Jr. 58

OPS
Adam Dunn .917
Josh Hamilton .914
Ken Griffey Jr. .907

Runs Created
Adam Dunn 76.0
Ken Griffey Jr. 75.5
Brandon Phillips 62.2

For those of you who don't think Adam Dunn is a run producer, then what is?

It's time to sign Dunn to a LTC.

[Chi-Town Red]

sign him if we can afford it...

[REDblooded]

Judging from BA/RISP and comparing RBI totals, I'd say he's prob had a few more chances than the other guys.............

Dunn-.217, Phillips- .265, Griffey- .250, and just for fun Hamilton- .293


Outside of Hamilton, who has missed significant time, is it any wonder the Reds are playing so poorly?

And .217 is just abysmal.

[AmarilloRed]

I believe the problem has always been people expected more Rbi production from Adam, and he could have done that if he could have raised his BA/RISP. He has not, and so dissatisfied many fans.

[mroby85]

I believe the problem has always been people expected more Rbi production from Adam, and he could have done that if he could have raised his BA/RISP. He has not, and so dissatisfied many fans.

my thoughts exactly, but honestly, do we need another adam dunn thread? i mean come on, this is like the 49034304930st one.

[uoduck1017]

my thoughts exactly, but honestly, do we need another adam dunn thread? i mean come on, this is like the 49034304930st one.

I hate to be nitpicky, but I think you are off by a few on that number.

[ChatterRed]

I also think you have to take into consideration that his competition on THE REDS.......flat out sucks. So saying he leads the team.......MEANS SQUAT. BWAHAAAAA!!!

[ochre]

Judging from BA/RISP and comparing RBI totals, I'd say he's prob had a few more chances than the other guys.............

Dunn-.217, Phillips- .265, Griffey- .250, and just for fun Hamilton- .293

You choose your clutch; I'll choose mine.

runner on 1B only 
AB   R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG OPS
74  17 23  3  1 10  23  7   1 25  7  2 .311 .378 .784  1.162

Wait a sec. 10 HR with a guy on 1b in only 74 AB? That's like 14% of his ABs with a runner on 1b? How many sacrifice bunts is that worth?

So, a guy on first is in scoring position for at least 14% of Dunn's ABs this year (maybe more with those 4 other extra base hits and/or a speedy runner on 1b)? Maybe Dunn's the type of weapon that plate runs from any base, not just "scoring position"?

Runners on
AB   R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG OPS
171 53 44  5  1 14  56 31   1 62  8  2 .257 .369 .544  .913

Is .257 still abysmal?
You know what I also find clutch? Hitters that are successful with men on and 2 outs. That's hydrostatic.

Men On, 2 out
AB   R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG OPS
69  25 19  3  1  6  27 17   0 27  3  2 .275 .419 .609 1.028

So, Dunn is good for 23 rbi in 74 ab with a runner on 1B, 56 rbi in 171 ab with "runners on", and 27 rbi in 69 ab with men on and 2 outs. Personally, I find those to be pretty good situational "run producer" numbers, but maybe if he'd hit a few of those homers to the right side to advance the runner, or merely flied out to left a few more times Marty would like him.

Outside of Hamilton, who has missed significant time, is it any wonder the Reds are playing so poorly?

And .217 is just abysmal.

My theory on why the reds are playing so poorly tends to point more towards "pitching". Of course, consternation developed over small sample size studies could have something to do with it I suppose.

[REDblooded]

How about we use a figure that accounts for both, ochre? From The Hardball Times........

"Clutch" is the name we've given to the portion of Bill James's Runs Created formula that includes the impact of a batter's batting average with runners in scoring position and the number of home runs with runners on. The specific formula is Hits with RISP minus overall BA times at bats with RISP, plus HR with runners on minus (all HR/AB) times at bats with runners on. This stat is not a definitive description of "clutch hitting," just one way of looking at it

.

Based on that formula, lets look at various "clutch" ratings. I'll use the standard starting line-up, as well as key subs.

Ross- -2.4
Hatteberg- -1.8
Phillips- -3.0
Gonzalez- -.2
Encarnacion- 3.9 (hmmmm.......could this point to the idea that somebody isn't being used correctly?)
Griffey Jr- -4.3
Freel- 2.2
Dunn- -3.4


key reserves

Hamilton- 1.3
Valentin- 2.5
Hopper- -1.2
Keppinger- .7
Conine- 2.0
Moeller- -1.6


Interesting that the 2 highest paid hitters on this team have the worst clutch ratings.

For comparison to other top hitters

ARod- 5.8
Ortiz- .4
Vlad- 6.7
D Wright- .2
J Reyes- -.2
Morneau -.2
Ichiro- 2

[ochre]

How about we use a figure that accounts for both, ochre? From The Hardball Times........

.

Based on that formula, lets look at various "clutch" ratings. I'll use the standard starting line-up, as well as key subs.

Ross- -2.4
Hatteberg- -1.8
Phillips- -3.0
Gonzalez- -.2
Encarnacion- 3.9 (hmmmm.......could this point to the idea that somebody isn't being used correctly?)
Griffey Jr- -4.3
Freel- 2.2
Dunn- -3.4


key reserves

Hamilton- 1.3
Valentin- 2.5
Hopper- -1.2
Keppinger- .7
Conine- 2.0
Moeller- -1.6


Interesting that the 2 highest paid hitters on this team have the worst clutch ratings.

For comparison to other top hitters

ARod- 5.8
Ortiz- .4
Vlad- 6.7
D Wright- .2
J Reyes- -.2
Morneau -.2
Ichiro- 2

you had me at:

This stat is not a definitive description of "clutch hitting," just one way of looking at it.

So, I guess we're back to:

You choose your clutch; I'll choose mine.

I'm not a big fan of composite stats that mix units of measure, or vacillate between counting and rate stats absent some measure of correlation to something that means something in the aggregate. The better composite stats that do that are able to correlate against large data sets over time (runs scored over several seasons by player, team, league, et cetera). These statistics can then be evaluated for their "quality" at measuring up to what actually occurred. What would you propose we correlate this statistic to?

I don't particularly find RISP stats all that interesting. They tend to be small sample sizes. I point out that, roughly 1 out of ever 8 plate appearances this year with just a runner on first base Dunn has homered. That doesn't fit the RISP standard. Is a base hit with a guy on second in the top of the 9th with your team down 8 runs clutch?

The beauty of statistics, particularly when small sample sizes are being analyzed as authoritative, is that we can both slice up the data to our own preference all day long and sit here and debate in circles.

[REDblooded]

I'll take a statistic that factors things in from both sides rather than one that doesn't. I'll also take a player who's defense takes away runs, rather than one who gives them away. Either way, any GM who ties up a substantial portion of his teams salary in a player like Adam Dunn, deserves to lose his job. If you tie up a minimal portion of your teams salary in a player like Adam Dunn, no big deal. But, since this is Cincinnati, and not Anaheim, NY, Boston, or LA, it looks like any Cincinnati Reds GM who signs Adam Dunn to a longterm contract deserves to lose his job.

[REDblooded]

I'd like to add, that I watch the majority of Reds games throughout the season, and without statistical analyisis, I can say that without any announcer telling me what to think, when watching Dunn, I spend more time shaking my head in frustration than I do telling myself how great of a hitter he is.

[ochre]

I'll take a statistic that factors things in from both sides rather than one that doesn't. I'll also take a player who's defense takes away runs, rather than one who gives them away. Either way, any GM who ties up a substantial portion of his teams salary in a player like Adam Dunn, deserves to lose his job. If you tie up a minimal portion of your teams salary in a player like Adam Dunn, no big deal. But, since this is Cincinnati, and not Anaheim, NY, Boston, or LA, it looks like any Cincinnati Reds GM who signs Adam Dunn to a longterm contract deserves to lose his job.

 NAME                  GP  GS  INN   TC  PO  A  E DP FPCT  RF    ZR   
 Eric Byrnes, Ari      74  64  555.1 143 135 5  3 0  .979  2.27  .910 
 Matt Holliday, Col    105 105 923.0 199 192 5  2 0  .990  1.92  .896 
 Alfonso Soriano, ChC  89  89  791.2 207 191 11 5 3  .976  2.30  .886 
 Geoff Jenkins, Mil    77  73  659.2 161 154 6  1 1  .994  2.19  .882 
 Luis Gonzalez, LA     98  97  768.0 148 145 2  1 0  .993  1.72  .871 
 Chris Duncan, StL     78  71  607.1 136 130 4  2 0  .985  1.99  .842 
 Adam Dunn, Cin        102 101 844.2 176 170 2  4 0  .977  1.83  .839 
 Jason Bay, Pit        104 104 922.1 214 199 9  6 2  .972  2.03  .816 
 Barry Bonds, SF       82  82  649.0 135 133 0  2 0  .985  1.84  .805 
 Josh Willingham, Fla  101 101 880.1 156 149 5  2 0  .987  1.57  .799 
 Pat Burrell, Phi      85  85  637.2 118 107 5  6 1  .949  1.58  .795 
 Carlos Lee, Hou       106 106 941.2 181 171 8  2 2  .989  1.71  .790

Dunn's pretty much league average for LF (regulars) defense this season. I hear he kicks puppies too!

[jimbo]

I hear he kicks puppies too!

And treats old people and children like dirt.

[ochre]

and of the guys ahead of him defensively, only Matt Holliday and Chris Duncan are ahead of him offensively:

PLAYER TEAM          AB  R   H   2B  3B HR  RBI SB CS BB  SO  BA   OBP  SLG  OPS 
Barry Bonds  SFO     260 55  70  11  0  20  49  5  0  110 45  .269 .488 .542 1.03
Matt Holliday  COL   429 73  145 38  4  20  88  7  3  40  86  .338 .398 .585 .983
Chris Duncan STL     294 47  84  17  0  20  59  2  1  42  89  .286 .376 .548 .923
Pat Burrell  PHI     290 45  78  17  0  16  56  0  0  78  71  .269 .426 .493 .919
Adam Dunn  CIN       384 68  101 20  2  29  71  8  2  60  128 .263 .364 .552 .917
Carlos Lee HOU       424 62  125 28  1  22  86  7  5  39  43  .295 .350 .521 .871
Eric Byrnes  ARI     436 67  133 21  7  16  61  27 6  41  76  .305 .368 .495 .863
Alfonso Soriano  CHC 438 74  131 31  5  18  42  18 5  24  95  .299 .338 .516 .854
Josh Willingham  FLA 381 55  102 24  4  16  66  5  1  52  86  .268 .376 .478 .854
Luis Gonzalez  LAD   357 58  101 19  2  11  51  6  0  42  40  .283 .361 .440 .800
Jason Bay  PIT       396 55  103 17  2  16  69  3  1  44  101 .260 .334 .434 .768
Ryan Church  WAS     353 42  92  33  0  8   45  3  2  36  68  .261 .338 .422 .760