Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 40

Thread: The Head of the Class of 2006

  1. #1
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    Portland, Or
    Posts
    5,041

    The Head of the Class of 2006

    Three players have distinguished themselves so far from the Class of 2006:

    RP Josh Roenicke, 10th round
    RP Derrick Lutz, 19th round
    LF Daniel Dorn, 32nd round

    All three of these players are on the same fast track that Jay Bruce is on from the 2005 Class, as they all look to make their Major League debuts exactly one year following Bruce.

    There's already a good thread about Dorn in this Minor League section of REDSZONE (Dorn promoted to...).

    All other position players from that draft are 2 levels below Dorn, other than 2 players, who have 11 and 62 at-bats respectively. The one with 62 at-bats is doing nothing special, yet at Low-A, where Dorn already hit at an OPS of over .800 with over 300 at-bats. Spending the rest of this year at AA, and hopefully splitting next year between AA and AAA will earn him a promotion to the Majors where he'll be mature enough having already spent a few years maturing as a College All-American.

    If any starter had shown any real success at High-A, even just holding their own at that level, then they'd be listed here, but none have reached that plateau, yet. Two relief pitchers, though, as deemed by the REDS' organization, are excelling well enough to have earned their promotions to AA Chattanooga 10 days before Dorn. So far, both are dominating with about 10 appearances each.

    No other relief pitcher is doing well from this class at High-A Sarasota.

    It doesn't matter what round a guy is picked in. The REDS have right now three players on the fast track to the bigs from the 2006 Class, and none of them seems to have been rushed.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Location
    Connecticut
    Posts
    716

    Re: The Head of the Class of 2006

    How the heck could dorn fall so far in the draft? He hit pretty well in college. What kind of player do you think he could be in the majors?

  4. #3
    ZCTRMTP!!!!!
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Posts
    10,798

    Re: The Head of the Class of 2006

    I would include Daryl Thompson on that list. I know he wasn't in the Reds' 2006 Minor League Draft; but he was acquired right around that time. And he was in the very low minors. So, for all intents and purposes, he was a 2006 draftee, IMO.

  5. #4
    Member Superdude's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    2,792

    Re: The Head of the Class of 2006

    Two relief pitchers, though, as deemed by the REDS' organization, are excelling well enough to have earned their promotions to AA Chattanooga 10 days before Dorn. So far, both are dominating with about 10 appearances each.
    Are you counting Lutz as one of the two? He started the year in Chattanooga and was sent down to Sarasota.

    All other position players from that draft are 2 levels below Dorn, other than 2 players, who have 11 and 62 at-bats respectively.
    Valaika was also in the draft and has a decent amount of at bats in Sarasota.

  6. #5
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    Portland, Or
    Posts
    5,041

    Re: The Head of the Class of 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    Are you counting Lutz as one of the two? He started the year in Chattanooga and was sent down to Sarasota.




    Valaika was also in the draft and has a decent amount of at bats in Sarasota.

    Yes, Derrick Lutz and Josh Roenicke.

    My eyes missed Valaika, so, yes, add him making it 4 players at the Head of the 2006 class even if Valaika does have a .635 OPS at Sarasota. He still gets to spend the rest of the year there and begin it there next year with hopes that he splits 2008 between AA and AAA with eyes on the Majors sometime in 2009.

    Derrick Lutz could use a "Prospect Profile" if anyone gets to see him in person and comment on what they see.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  7. #6
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Springfield, Ohio
    Posts
    9,052

    Re: The Head of the Class of 2006

    Sean Watson is also there and although hasn't found his groove just yet he is doing slightly better.

    He has 3 games where he has given up more than 3 ER's, 2 of those were his 1st 2 starts and only 1 since. Of course his IP haven't been consistent yet either, but he seems to making some headway with 8 starts so far.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  8. #7
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    Portland, Or
    Posts
    5,041

    Re: The Head of the Class of 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    Sean Watson is also there and although hasn't found his groove just yet he is doing slightly better.

    He has 3 games where he has given up more than 3 ER's, 2 of those were his 1st 2 starts and only 1 since. Of course his IP haven't been consistent yet either, but he seems to making some headway with 8 starts so far.
    I didn't count him because 8 starts with an ERA of 7 in Sarasota doesn't get the teacher's attention. His level is equal at this point to those at Dayton until he proves otherwise. He's doing it today.

    As you say, he was giving up mulitple runs in all of his starts but one. At the end of the year, he could definitely join the list, but he's got to pitch a lot better.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  9. #8
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Cumming, GA
    Posts
    619

    Re: The Head of the Class of 2006

    watson, valaika, turner, heisey all have had solid seasons. of course, stubbs has a lot of ability. also, some of the pitchers like jordan smith, travis webb, and jamie arneson are guys to watch.
    "I hate SF."

    -Mat Latos

  10. #9
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,582

    Re: The Head of the Class of 2006

    To me, Josh Roenicke is the number one "fast track" player from last year's draft. He is already at AA, is doing great, will be in the Reds bullpen sometime next year if he keeps it up. I think he is definitely one of the Reds top 10 prospects right now since he is a hard throwing reliever and is being successful at every level.

    Dorn deserves mention too. He is likely a platoon guy, and is just breaking in at AA, but certainly did well at High A after skipping a level. Call him a "fast track" guy too.

    Lutz has a WHIP of over 1.4 at High A ball. Valaika isn't hitting at High A. Watson is having some trouble breaking in at High A. They all are good prospects, but I don't think you can say they have broken through at this point.

    In terms of showing ability at advanced levels, the two best guys so far are Roenicke and Dorn.
    Last edited by Kc61; 08-06-2007 at 12:43 AM.

  11. #10
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Cincinnati, OH
    Posts
    11,434

    Re: The Head of the Class of 2006

    I don't know if Josh Roenicke deserves the "fast track" title since he's 25 years old and has spent very little time in AA.

  12. #11
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,322

    Re: The Head of the Class of 2006

    KC61, I would be interested in seeing your top 10 prospects if a 25 year old reliever is definately in your top 10. Relief pitching is only so valuable.... maybe I undervalue relievers, but I can't see a reliever with anything less than complete domination and 2 plus pitches all while being young for a league being a true prospect.

  13. #12
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,582

    Re: The Head of the Class of 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    KC61, I would be interested in seeing your top 10 prospects if a 25 year old reliever is definately in your top 10. Relief pitching is only so valuable.... maybe I undervalue relievers, but I can't see a reliever with anything less than complete domination and 2 plus pitches all while being young for a league being a true prospect.
    Roenicke would be my number 5 prospect after the 4 big guns in AAA. In 12 innings of AA ball, he has a 1.5 ERA and has 14 strikeouts and 2 walks. He played four years of college so he is a year older than usual, but this guy has succeeded at every level. He is a big pitcher, not one of the guys with a suspect frame. He throws hard.

    You can put A ball prospects ahead of him, but I don't. Roenicke has a real, meaningful chance of helping the major league team in a big way. Soon. Not someone who is three years away, if he stays healthy, if this, if that. Roenicke is real and has performed superbly. (He had 41 Ks in 27 innings at Sarasota before being promoted.)

    Yes, he is a reliever. Anyone who has watched the Reds this year shouldn't undervalue top relief prospects.
    Last edited by Kc61; 08-06-2007 at 12:32 PM.

  14. #13
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,322

    Re: The Head of the Class of 2006

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post

    Yes, he is a reliever. Anyone who has watched the Reds this year shouldn't undervalue top relief prospects.
    Or is it becuase the Reds bullpen sucks that some people overvalue quality relief? Relief pitching is fine and dandy and all, but unless you are a K-rod, Gagne or Papelbon type even a normal everyday player is much more valuable.

  15. #14
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,582

    Re: The Head of the Class of 2006

    I wouldn't overvalue relief pitchers, but I wouldn't undervalue them either. The mantra that relievers can't be top prospects makes no sense to me.

    Compare the odds of Travis Wood helping the Reds materially with the odds that Roenicke will. Wood is several years away, has had injury issues, hasn't yet succeeded at High A ball. Roenicke has no injury issues, did well at High A, and is doing well at Chatanooga.
    Wood is younger, so he has more time to succeed. But Roenicke doesn't seem to need the time, he is almost ready to go. (I like Wood; he'd be in my top ten also.)

    As for everyday players, there is nobody in the Reds lower minor leagues who is such a great prospect as to rank ahead of Roenicke. Certainly Stubbs isn't. Valaika can't break through at High A. Mesoraca is in low Rookie ball hitting .244, certainly way premature to annoint him. The third baseman at Dayton looks good, but has slowed down some and has a long, long way to go.

    Maybe, arguably, Todd Frazier, who I really like. He'd be close to Roenicke in my rankings, but I still take the AA ball guy over the Billings guy right now.

    In considering prospects, IMO one needs to focus not only on ceiling but on likelihood of ever getting to the majors and succeeding there. Roenicke, to me, is a virtual lock (barring unforeseen injury) to help the Reds as a reliever, perhaps even a closer. Some of the "younger" prospects in A-ball and Rookie ball, well maybe yes, maybe no.
    Last edited by Kc61; 08-06-2007 at 12:58 PM.

  16. #15
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Cincinnati, OH
    Posts
    11,434

    Re: The Head of the Class of 2006

    I think Roenicke is a legitimate prospect and deserves more press. I'd rate him around where Daryl Thompson or Alex Smit is on my list of prospects.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25