Adam Dunn's Career Averages, batting order...

[BLEEDS]

Thought I'd give this its own thread.

From a discussion myself and JLB5 were having in another thread:

Batting Dunn in front of Griffey (which Narron actually started to do early in the year) maximizes both their value.

He's going to create his runs no matter where you hit him, so why not let him get more ABs at the top of the lineup and create more runs while he is here.

I agree 100%. What happened to batting him 2nd? How many 2R-HR's did he have with Freel standing on 1st base earlier in the season? I'd like to see his OBP/OPS from him in the 2nd slot vs others, especially the 5th.

How about 3rd? You can argue that he's not the "BEST" hitter on the team, but he's the best OBP guy on the roster. IF one of the guys gets on from the 1 or 2 spot, you're looking at around a 40% chance that THAT runner is moving into scoring position - and a 20% chance that he's scoring according to your stats. Then you're setting the table for Griffey and then Phillips. Dunn will likely see BETTER pitches with Griffey/Phillips behind him than EE/Gonzo - and when I say likely, I mean likely 99.99% unless 1b is open...

Yeah, I'm quoting myself, so what...

I did a quick little research. Based on this, where would YOU bat this guy:

__________G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Batting 2nd 7 20 6 7 1 0 3 5 8 9 2 0 .350 .536 .850 1.386
Batting 3rd 14 60 7 16 4 0 1 4 2 18 2 0 .267 .290 .383 .674
Batting 4th 20 73 15 24 3 0 10 21 9 16 0 1 .329 .412 .781 1.193
Batting 5th 48 168 22 37 10 2 6 26 30 57 2 1 .220 .335 .411 .746
Batting 6th 16 56 16 15 2 0 8 13 10 26 2 0 .268 .388 .732 1.120

(Hint: NOT FIFTH!!)
Yeah, me, I'd put him 4th in the lineup - batting .329, slugging .781, OPS-ing 1.195, 10 HR/21 RBI in 73 AB. I know he only has 7 games batting 2nd, but he was hitting at a.350 clip, with an .850 SLG and an OPS of 1.386. Yeah, let's not keep him there.

But, wait a minute, let's make sure this isn't a one-year anamoly:

career:
Batting 2nd 101 392 79 109 25 1 27 74 64 128 7 0 .278 .388 .554 .942
Batting 3rd 119 431 65 96 22 0 24 57 94 144 10 4 .223 .368 .441 .809
Batting 4th 259 936 165 247 57 2 63 150 167 288 12 6 .264 .382 .531 .913
Batting 5th 259 881 159 205 39 5 64 156 199 310 16 5 .233 .377 .506 .883
Batting 6th 132 441 87 106 25 0 36 78 83 147 8 3 .240 .368 .542 .910

Looks fairly consistent overall for OPS - but look at BA/SLG and OPS - CLEARLY superior batting 2nd or 4th. With a slight edge at the #2 hole, where he's hitting .278 slugging .544 and OPS-ing .942 - with about 400 AB's. And by "slight edge" I mean 14 pts of BA, 23 pts of slugging, and 29 pts of OPS...
Biggest Sample Sizes being 4th and 5th - 900-ish AB's - there's a 30 Points drop in BA, SLG, and OPS across the board when dropping him in the lineup from 4th to 5th.

So, where do the Reds currently have him batting?
(Hint: NOT 2nd or 4th)

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[sully_for_prez]

Good stuff, I would hope that the club keeps track of those things, so the question is why don't they do it?
That being said, assuming he bats second, what about a lineup? Here's my stab:
3B Keppinger
LF Dunn
2B Phillips
RF Junior
1B Hatteberg
CF Freel
SS Gonzo
C Ross/Valentin
Pitcher

[boognish]

As long as he bats in front of Griffey and both are in the first half of the starting 8, I really don't give a fig where he hits. Dunn has always produced much more offense when he and Griffey bat back-to-back. Avoiding late inning "matchup problems" by "breaking up the lefties" gives too much credence to handedness and not enough to ability. Handedness is an applicable consideration to take into account when your team possesses quality bats from both sides...and the Reds lack a right-handed bat that fits the description. Hitting Conine and/or Phillips fourth only inserts outs between the two best hitters in the lineup, as Conine does not hit lefties...Phillips has a 100-point platoon split only due to his dreadful .245/.290/.388 career line against RHP.

I was one that screamed bloody murder when Aurilia hit fourth last season because of handedness, but he turned in an excellent season against southpaws to the tune of .347/.406/.680 with 25 XBH in 165 PA (note: based largely on the strength of 2006, Aurilia has an OPS almost 100 points higher versus LHP), but I still do not agree with the strategy. Dunn second, Griffey third, or Griffey third and Dunn fourth if the Reds can find some high-OBP players for the top of the lineup (outside of Hatteberg there are not any on the roster, and he is also left-handed).

The Reds' right-handed hitting is a sore spot as many predicted before the season, and the dire predictions usually assumed EE would step up and build upon a solid 2006. Take a look at these numbers:

All RHB: .243/.296/.380
RHB vs. LHP: .248/.298/.397
RHB vs. RHP: .240/.294/.369

Simply dreadful.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi...=CIN&year=2007

[BLEEDS]

bump!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[bigredbunter]

Does anyone have an explanation for the WIDE disparity for Dunn hitting in specific spots. Why would Dunn be a good hitter at #2 and not at #3? Does Jr. usually hit behind him when he bats 2nd? how about 3rd?

[ED44]

In attempts to not start another Dunn thread, here is another article...this one from the Enquirer:

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.d...70381/1062/SPT