My Top 20 Prospects

[dougdirt]

I am suprised that many people have dropped Bailey from the #1 prospect after a less than stellar first 4 or 5 games. I think people fail to realize that in his last start he pitched pretty good and out of his 6 starts 3 of them he gave up 2 or less runs. Its kind of like saying if Bruce hits .200 in his first month in the bigs he has lost elite status as a prospect. I dont rate Mesorasco anywhere near my top 15 and say that he is too far away from the bigs to compare him amongst the reds top 20. I also find it ironic that Dickerson doesn't find his way on many lists. IMO that a guy with that kind of speed and if he can play good defense will see quite a bit of time on a major league roster.

Here is how I look at Bailey/Bruce.
Last year Baileys stock was at its highest point in his prospectdom. He was still arguably the #1/2/3 pitcher in the minors, but was certainly behind Delmon Young and Alex Gordon. Jay Bruce currently is behind maybe Justin Upton, and that is very debatable at this point. Hitters are also much less likely to be a 'miss' prospect compared to pitchers.
Its not a knock on Bailey so much as it is the leap forward that Jay Bruce has made.

[BigREDSfaninKY]

My question is this, why isn't Maloney rated higher on some of your list? Especially behind Wood. Is it because he's 23 and in AA, remember this is his 2nd full season in pro ball after leaving Ole Miss in 2005.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

My question is this, why isn't Maloney rated higher on some of your list? Especially behind Wood. Is it because he's 23 and in AA, remember this is his 2nd full season in pro ball after leaving Ole Miss in 2005.

I have him as my 3rd best starting pitcher in the system and 5th best prospect overall. I see no reason that he should be any lower than the 3rd best starter.

[dougdirt]

My question is this, why isn't Maloney rated higher on some of your list? Especially behind Wood. Is it because he's 23 and in AA, remember this is his 2nd full season in pro ball after leaving Ole Miss in 2005.

Becuase he has never broke 90 MPH with a pitch. He doesn't have any plus pitch. The scouting reports on him are that all of his pitches are average across the board. Its got nothing to do with age in my book.... it has to do with what he does and his potential ceiling, which isn't very high to me.

[Patrick Bateman]

I ranked Maloney as my 4/5th best pitching prospect. But even now, I'm still debating who's a better prospect, Watson or Maloney.

Anyways, I definitely like Wood more than him. I still like his upside, and considering his youth, he actually hasn't pitched that poorly this season. The main problem for Wood is the minor injuries. He still hasn't had anything that's going to cost him for future seasons, but perhaps he's showing he's brittle and an injury risk for the future. But still, I think he has the chance to be really good if he can get past these problems. Considering that Maloney's upside is limited more, I like Wood better, even when you consider that Maloney is more advanced.

Now Maloney has pitched very well since coming over, but his year to date has only been decent. I like Maloney and see him as a top 10 prospect in our system, but I'm just not overwhelmed by him. Of the Reds 2nd tier prospects, he has probably the best shot at reaching the majors, but I question if his role will be as a permanent fixture at the back of the rotation, or will he level out as the usual AAAA guy, and that's where I have major doubts. I see a guy with only decent stuff, even if he is fairly advanced. Still, I can certainly see the argument that would place him as the #3 starter in the system, but he's not there for me.

[tbball10]

doug, dont u think with his current k/9 rate, that maloney has a plus pitch if not a few..

[dougdirt]

doug, dont u think with his current k/9 rate, that maloney has a plus pitch if not a few..

No. I have not seen him pitch, but all places I have seen say he doesn't have a plus pitch. He has 4 average pitches and decently good control of them. That will get you far enough. I think in AAA his strikeout rate will plummet, just like it did for Jeremy Sowers. Sowers had a strikeout rate of 8.79 in A+ and in AA. He got to AAA and it went below 5. He didn't have an out pitch, just very good control and a nice array of pitches.

[AmarilloRed]

I heard Maloney had a 86-88 sinker. Wouldn't that be considered a plus pitch?

[dougdirt]

I heard Maloney had a 86-88 sinker. Wouldn't that be considered a plus pitch?

Not really. Carlos Fisher and James Avery both throw sinkers in the 90-94 range. Maloney has good movement on his, but its still a fastball thats topping out at 88 MPH.

[Patrick Bateman]

I heard Maloney had a 86-88 sinker. Wouldn't that be considered a plus pitch?

Well it depends on the type of movement it has. The velocity only goes so far.

I don't know the answer to your question as I myself have never seen him pitch, but your only looking at half the puzzle. But guessing that the velocity isn't that great for a sinker, I doubt it's a plus pitch unless he has amazing movement.

[podgejeff_]

That's what I was going on with my question pertaining to why everyone thinks Bruce is better than Bailey. True, Bruce might be as "can't miss" as you can call a prospect these days, but Bailey's playing a very premium position. And if you went by the discussion on here before his call-up, he was about as "can't miss" as pitching prospects get, only being discussed with Phillip Hughes.

I'm just worried that too many people are writing him off as the Reds #1 prospect only because of some inconsistent starts his first time up in the majors. If you see issues in his control or secondary pitches, that's one thing, but I'm willing to forgive a couple of good starts mixed with a couple of bad starts on a bad team for his first time up here.

Bruce is looking like a future all-star, which is great for the Reds. If Bailey lives up to his potential, he will be far greater for the Reds, IMO.

[dougdirt]

That's what I was going on with my question pertaining to why everyone thinks Bruce is better than Bailey. True, Bruce might be as "can't miss" as you can call a prospect these days, but Bailey's playing a very premium position. And if you went by the discussion on here before his call-up, he was about as "can't miss" as pitching prospects get, only being discussed with Phillip Hughes.

Even so, the number of cant miss pitchers that have missed is very frequently. Hitters that are 'cant miss' seem to miss at a much lesser rate. Jay Bruce plays CF.... not quite starting pitcher value, but one of the most important positions on the field and when you get one that can hit, you are winning the lottery.

I'm just worried that too many people are writing him off as the Reds #1 prospect only because of some inconsistent starts his first time up in the majors. If you see issues in his control or secondary pitches, that's one thing, but I'm willing to forgive a couple of good starts mixed with a couple of bad starts on a bad team for his first time up here.

Some may be doing that. I am not. Bailey is still a top 10 prospect in baseball, but I would still put him behind Bruce.

Bruce is looking like a future all-star, which is great for the Reds. If Bailey lives up to his potential, he will be far greater for the Reds, IMO.

If Bailey lives up to his potential and Jay Bruce lives up to his, we better win a world series or two because that would leave us with a Cy Young winner and MVP on the same team.

[Screwball]

I'd like to know where some of you guys who really follow the minors (e.g. Austin Kearns, mth, dougdirt) rank Phil Dumatrait as a prospect. Top 30? 40?

[Patrick Bateman]

I'm not a big fan of Dumatrait. He's a really bad starter. His main problem is lack of control. He has decent enough stuff that if he had great control he could have a shot at back of the rotation, but he just doesn't have it. Considering he's 26, I don't expect for him to get a lot better.

IMO, the only hope for dumatrait is as a reliever. Dumatrait has always been more successful lefties than righties, and if used correctly out of the bullpen, I could see him becoming a decent LOOGY. If used in any other role he doesn't have much of a chance. Firstly though, the reds need to put him in the pen eventually. He might thrive like Pelland has. Likely not to the same degree, but you might see a nice rise in his K numbers, and have enough control to make it as an effective LOOGY.

So because of his limited upside, and he's no guarantee to work well out of the pen, he could be in the mix in the 35-40 range.

[Kc61]

I'm not a big fan of Dumatrait. He's a really bad starter. His main problem is lack of control. He has decent enough stuff that if he had great control he could have a shot at back of the rotation, but he just doesn't have it. Considering he's 26, I don't expect for him to get a lot better.

IMO, the only hope for dumatrait is as a reliever. Dumatrait has always been more successful lefties than righties, and if used correctly out of the bullpen, I could see him becoming a decent LOOGY. If used in any other role he doesn't have much of a chance. Firstly though, the reds need to put him in the pen eventually. He might thrive like Pelland has. Likely not to the same degree, but you might see a nice rise in his K numbers, and have enough control to make it as an effective LOOGY.

So because of his limited upside, and he's no guarantee to work well out of the pen, he could be in the mix in the 35-40 range.

I will vote for Dumatrait to make it as a starter. I know this isn't the RedsZone consensus view. But during his minor league career he has had several periods in which he threw a number of very effective games, as a starter, almost to a point of being dominant. Not full seasons, but for a period of weeks. (Not at AAA, but at lower levels, which may or may not be a red flag.)

Dumatrait is not a soft tosser as some claim. His major issue is walks. This will make or break him. But if he can reasonably keep the walks down, I think he has the stuff to succeed.

Some pitchers avoid walks at all costs. But if the pitcher lacks deceptive stuff, the result is that he gets hit hard. Belisle, for example, has avoided walks well but has a .308 BA against him.

Dumatrait needs to cut his walks down without grooving pitches. If he can reach that balance, I think he can be a solid No.4 starter. So I would definitely put him in the top 15 Reds prospects, if he still qualified for the list.

Again, RedsZoners tend to downgrade Dumatrait so I expect this view to be challenged. But I think he has a better chance of making good, even as a starter, than some of the others on the team.