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Thread: My Top 20 Prospects

  1. #61
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: My Top 20 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I will vote for Dumatrait to make it as a starter. I know this isn't the RedsZone consensus view. But during his minor league career he has had several periods in which he threw a number of very effective games, as a starter, almost to a point of being dominant. Not full seasons, but for a period of weeks. (Not at AAA, but at lower levels, which may or may not be a red flag.)

    Dumatrait is not a soft tosser as some claim. His major issue is walks. This will make or break him. But if he can reasonably keep the walks down, I think he has the stuff to succeed.

    Some pitchers avoid walks at all costs. But if the pitcher lacks deceptive stuff, the result is that he gets hit hard. Belisle, for example, has avoided walks well but has a .308 BA against him.

    Dumatrait needs to cut his walks down without grooving pitches. If he can reach that balance, I think he can be a solid No.4 starter. So I would definitely put him in the top 15 Reds prospects, if he still qualified for the list.

    As I said, he's 26, and he has awful control. His stuff is good enough to make it, but right now dumatrait needs a complete turn around on his ability to command the strike zone.

    Anything is possible, but as a 26 year old with a long, long way to go before he can be considered a decent option at the back of the rotation, I strongly dislike his chances as a starter.

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  3. #62
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: My Top 20 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Screwball View Post
    I'd like to know where some of you guys who really follow the minors (e.g. Austin Kearns, mth, dougdirt) rank Phil Dumatrait as a prospect. Top 30? 40?
    In the Reds system somewhere between 20 and 25.

  4. #63
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    Re: My Top 20 Prospects

    I think WHIP says a lot about a pitcher. For a reliever, I want 1.3 and below. For a starter, I want 1.4 and below. For a minor leaguer, I tend to ignore a guy's "break in" period at each level and focus on his WHIP after he's gotten his sea legs.

    Dumatrait had a lifetime WHIP in 7 minor league seasons of 1.36. When you consider that he had a serious injury, that he had trouble breaking in at a few new levels, this is quite good for a starter.

    At AA, he "broke in" in 2005. Then when he returned in '06, his WHIP was 1.23. Excellent. At AAA this year, his WHIP was 1.32. Solid. All these numbers are as a starter. I think he has a chance of keeping his WHIP at 1.4 or below in the National League and this will be good.

    So even with some control problems, this pitcher has kept the hitters off base to a reasonable degree. If his control improves, he will do even better. This is one reason why I am high on this guy.
    Last edited by Kc61; 08-10-2007 at 01:55 PM.

  5. #64
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: My Top 20 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Screwball View Post
    I'd like to know where some of you guys who really follow the minors (e.g. Austin Kearns, mth, dougdirt) rank Phil Dumatrait as a prospect. Top 30? 40?
    I'm not the expert that AK or Doug (or some others for that matter) are, but I like to look at the stats and try to evaluate these guys, so here is my 2 cents:

    In 36 Starts at AAA over 2006 and 2007, Dumatrait has had a poor K rate at well below 6 and and a borderline (on the poor side) walk rate of over 3.6. I'm not real optimistic that he is anything more than a AAAA guy who can pitch in the minors and come up and make a start in a pinch. With teams turning over every rock to find pitching, I do think he's worth a look in a lost season like this one and may as well be kept around since he's cheap. I'd probably rank him in the 30s right now but he's the kind of guy who will get passed by younger guys as they emerge and get some full season ball under their belt.

    I'm thinking that Dumatrait may be on his last option and the Reds may need to make a decision on him in the Spring. Maybe some one could verify that.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  6. #65
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: My Top 20 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I'm not the expert that AK or Doug (or some others for that matter) are, but I like to look at the stats and try to evaluate these guys, so here is my 2 cents:

    In 36 Starts at AAA over 2006 and 2007, Dumatrait has had a poor K rate at well below 6 and and a borderline (on the poor side) walk rate of over 3.6. I'm not real optimistic that he is anything more than a AAAA guy who can pitch in the minors and come up and make a start in a pinch. With teams turning over every rock to find pitching, I do think he's worth a look in a lost season like this one and may as well be kept around since he's cheap. I'd probably rank him in the 30s right now but he's the kind of guy who will get passed by younger guys as they emerge and get some full season ball under their belt.

    I'm thinking that Dumatrait may be on his last option and the Reds may need to make a decision on him in the Spring. Maybe some one could verify that.

    I totally agree. I don't see Dumatrait as being anything that special. Even in his most recent ("quality") start, he fell behind consistently, was hit hard (even when they were outs) and was fortunate to get out of many jams against a pretty weak Dodger lineup (that day).

    Guys like him, EZ, and Livington (with low K rates) don't get me too excited. If I had to pick one of the three to be a solid contributer to the rotation (#4 or 5), I think Livingston with his low walk rates has the best shot.

    I'm hoping Cueto and Bailey make it a non-issue.

  7. #66
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    Re: My Top 20 Prospects

    I see Chris Dickerson did not make the top 20 in most of these lists. I understand a lot of people think he is no better than a fourth outfielder, and he is rather old. Where would Dickerson rate on one of these lists? I think if he could cut down on the strikeouts and make more contact, he could be a good outfield prospect.

  8. #67
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    Re: My Top 20 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    I totally agree. I don't see Dumatrait as being anything that special. Even in his most recent ("quality") start, he fell behind consistently, was hit hard (even when they were outs) and was fortunate to get out of many jams against a pretty weak Dodger lineup (that day).

    I'm hoping Cueto and Bailey make it a non-issue.
    So we have the patience to watch the Reds trot out a 5.40 pitcher with a .308 BAA for 135 innings this year, yet Dumatrait is supposedly no good after two lifetime outings because he "fell behind" some hitters in his second game. And because he got outs that were "hit hard." A game in which he allowed two runs, I believe. Against a Dodger team that has a pretty good NL record.

    As I read in one of the prospects lists, I believe from BA, Dumatrait has a feel for pitching. He has always been successful once he has had time to adjust to a new league. Sometimes peripheral numbers (like strikeout rate) don't tell the whole story. Peripherals are only an indicator, but the objective is to give up few runs and win games.

    Maybe I'll be wrong, but let's give this guy the same shot the Reds have given other pitchers who reached the major leagues.
    Last edited by Kc61; 08-11-2007 at 10:44 AM.

  9. #68
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: My Top 20 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    So we have the patience to watch the Reds trot out a 5.40 pitcher with a .308 BAA for 135 innings this year, yet Dumatrait is supposedly no good after two lifetime outings because he "fell behind" some hitters in his second game. And because he got outs that were "hit hard." A game in which he allowed two runs, I believe. Against a Dodger team that has a pretty good NL record.

    As I read in one of the prospects lists, I believe from BA, Dumatrait has a feel for pitching. He has always been successful once he has had time to adjust to a new league. Sometimes peripheral numbers (like strikeout rate) don't tell the whole story. Peripherals are only an indicator, but the objective is to give up few runs and win games.

    Maybe I'll be wrong, but let's give this guy the same shot the Reds have given other pitchers who reached the major leagues.

    I agree with giving him a shot. I just think looking at his minor league numbers he has a lower probability of being successful than Belisle does.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  10. #69
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    Re: My Top 20 Prospects

    I think Belisle and Dumatrait should battle it out for the #5 starter job in spring training next year, with the loser getting the long relief/spot starter role out of the pen.
    Go BLUE!!!

  11. #70
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    Re: My Top 20 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    I think Belisle and Dumatrait should battle it out for the #5 starter job in spring training next year, with the loser getting the long relief/spot starter role out of the pen.
    Dumatrait can't get minor league hitters out. Why does everyone think that means he should be a major league pitcher?

  12. #71
    Boom Goes the Dynamite Screwball's Avatar
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    Re: My Top 20 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Kearns View Post
    Why does everyone think that means he should be a major league pitcher?
    Because of Cincinnati sports talk radio?

  13. #72
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: My Top 20 Prospects

    Because of Cincinnati sports talk radio?
    He gets more unwarranted hype than any prospect I can think of. If we had to base prospect rankings off TV and radio opinions, we'd all be calling Dumatrait the best pitching prospect in the organization.

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    Re: My Top 20 Prospects

    I love how you guys bash on Dumatrait. You haven't even given him a chance to get settled in. I like Kc61's comments.

    Down in AAA he had a few rough outings that he encountered in the middle of his season here. Early on - dominant. Before promotion - dominant. Sure he has a high BB rate. Almost was a league leader. It's like he'd struggle with 1 batter, walking him on 4 pitches. Then dominate the rest of the inning / game.

    His game is pitching inside with his fastball. It's sneaky. He has a good 12 / 6 curve that he rarely throws anymore. Last few outings he stuck with just the slider (which he calls a cutter, cause i guess he's holding it different, but still does the same effect) and change up (which he can tend to slow his arm speed down on).

    He's thrown 2 times. First promotion to the show I'm sure he's still got some nerves even the 2nd time pitching. It's all about feeling comfortable - so it's mostly mental. He'll get there shortly, just give him time.

  15. #74
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    Re: My Top 20 Prospects

    Did you watch his last game? He was throwing balls all over the place, and when he did throw strikes he was being hit hard. I believe he got lucky, and got a couple of hitters to hit them right at the fielders. I will admit I only watched the 3rd and 4th inning, but he will have to do a lot better with his control to stay in the majors.

  16. #75
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    Re: My Top 20 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    Did you watch his last game? He was throwing balls all over the place, and when he did throw strikes he was being hit hard. I believe he got lucky, and got a couple of hitters to hit them right at the fielders. I will admit I only watched the 3rd and 4th inning, but he will have to do a lot better with his control to stay in the majors.
    like i said, 2nd outing in the bigs. who isn't going to still be nervous ??? give him time.... let the catcher's figure out his game and he'll be money...he'll dominate. let him get comfortable with his teammates...


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