My Top 20 Prospects

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I could care less about Dumatrait's last outing. It isn't about that for me, although I used it as an example of how completely blah he is.

It's his 206.1 innings of AAA pitching in which he's given up 213 hits and walked 84 (1.44 WHIP), not to mention, his low K rates (5.58/9) in AAA that doesn't inspire much confidence with me - personally. Even looking at his AA numbers, I can't be too thrilled with a guy that walked 92 in 177.1 innings (4.67/9) although is K rates were better than the weak rate he's put up so far in AAA.

And I don't think I "bashed" Dumatrait. I just gave my honest opinion of him. Funny thing is that that in KC's post, he gets on me for being harsh on Dumatrait and then he takes a shot at Livingston. So is it okay to give a not so glowing opinion on Livingston, but not Dumatrait?

If it were up to me, neither of these soft-tossing non-bat misser's would be in the equation, but this is the Reds so if I had to pick one, it would be Livingston for his low walk rate.

[camisadelgolf]

I could care less about Dumatrait's last outing. It isn't about that for me, although I used it as an example of how completely blah he is.

It's his 206.1 innings of AAA pitching in which he's given up 213 hits and walked 84 (1.44 WHIP), not to mention, his low K rates (5.58/9) in AAA that doesn't inspire much confidence with me - personally. Even looking at his AA numbers, I can't be too thrilled with a guy that walked 92 in 177.1 innings (4.67/9) although is K rates were better than the weak rate he's put up so far in AAA.

And I don't think I "bashed" Dumatrait. I just gave my honest opinion of him. Funny thing is that that in KC's post, he gets on me for being harsh on Dumatrait and then he takes a shot at Livingston. So is it okay to give a not so glowing opinion on Livingston, but not Dumatrait?

If it were up to me, neither of these soft-tossing non-bat misser's would be in the equation, but this is the Reds so if I had to pick one, it would be Livingston for his low walk rate.

I agree with you completely. Also, I don't think KeyMastur was referring to you as bashing Dumatrait.

[Kc61]

I could care less about Dumatrait's last outing. It isn't about that for me, although I used it as an example of how completely blah he is.

It's his 206.1 innings of AAA pitching in which he's given up 213 hits and walked 84 (1.44 WHIP), not to mention, his low K rates (5.58/9) in AAA that doesn't inspire much confidence with me - personally. Even looking at his AA numbers, I can't be too thrilled with a guy that walked 92 in 177.1 innings (4.67/9) although is K rates were better than the weak rate he's put up so far in AAA.



If it were up to me, neither of these soft-tossing non-bat misser's would be in the equation, but this is the Reds so if I had to pick one, it would be Livingston for his low walk rate.

Here's where I disagree. Dumatrait's WHIP at AA was poor in his initial stint in 2005. I look at this as a breakin period. In 2006, he went back to AA and was 1.23. Then he moved up to AAA and did poorly in 2006. But in 2007 his WHIP at Louisville was 1.32.

So his history is that he needs an initial period to get used to each level and then is a relatively low WHIP pitcher. Using his combined WHIP stats, without accounting for this improvement at each level, doesn't tell the whole story.

As for soft-tossing, Livingston is one, I don't think Dumatrait is. His K rates in the lower minor leagues were fine, then in AAA were over 5 per game, which is not terrible at all. His BB rates have been too high, which I view as his potential achilles heel, but except for his initial AAA stint in 2006, he always has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched.

And in evaluating his record, consider that he had a serious injury and missed 2004. So he may get stronger as he goes on.

And as for Livingston, I think he is the classic fifth starter. Soft tossing, but deceptive and really knows how to pitch. Still he allowed 123 hits in 104 innings at AAA, which could be a warning sign. (He walks almost nobody, which helps.)

I would be satisfied to see the Reds give give both Phil and Bobby starting positions next year (assuming they progress this year and next spring). If they would spend for another good starter, Harang, Arroyo, X, Dumatrait and Livingston would be ok with me, until Homer and Cueto are ready to go.

[KeyMastur]

If it were up to me, neither of these soft-tossing non-bat misser's would be in the equation, but this is the Reds so if I had to pick one, it would be Livingston for his low walk rate.

you weren't bashing...

i'd hardly consider phil to be soft-throwing lefty though when he throws 90-91 with a slider at 83.

when he's on he's on, and lately in AAA he was on. stats here except for the Pawtucket start, you tellin me you wouldn't want those numbers in the bigs ?? he threw exceptionally well and kept the team in the game for a shot at a win.

[mth123]

Let me clarify. I have no problem giving Dumatrait a chance, but based on his mediocre peripherals in AAA over 36 Starts in 2006 and 2007, I would say the probablilty of him being a good big league starter is very low. That doesn't mean he hasn't earned a look. He should be in the mix for the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation in 2008 with Livingston, Belisle, Bailey, Cueto, Ramirez and Gosling. If I had to pick that rotation right now I'd go with Belisle and Livingston with Gosling (based on being a lefty who can turn line-ups around if needed early and double as a LOOGY if needed later) as my long reliever. Cueto and Bailey would get more time in AAA and Ramirez and Dumatrait would need to force their way in. But its not a foregone conclusion. The Red's problem will be if more than two of these guys end up in the rotation. Another established, reliable starter is needed.

[KeyMastur]

And as for Livingston, I think he is the classic fifth starter. Soft tossing, but deceptive and really knows how to pitch. I would love to see the Reds give him a full shot at the fifth spot next year. I'd like to see Dumatrait at number four, if he progresses for the rest of this year. Harang, Arroyo, a new good number three, Dumatrait, and Livingston. I'd give it a shot until Bailey/Cueto are ready.

crafty he is.

and they did give him a full shot at 5th starter this year belisle just edged him out at the wire

[BuckeyeRedleg]

crafty he is.

and they did give him a full shot at 5th starter this year belisle just edged him out at the wire

Do you like him much better than Livingston or are they close?

[gedred69]

Well, this has certainly turned into a Dumatrait discussion. Wasn't his rise in the minors switch-railed by serious arm/shoulder problems? Anyhow, back to the original thread, does anyone else think Francisco could well be another Wily Mo? Awful lot of SOs to go with those HRs. Unfortunately I haven't had the opportunity to attend any Dragons games to see him. Any thoughts/observations?

[AmarilloRed]

Well, this has certainly turned into a Dumatrait discussion. Wasn't his rise in the minors switch-railed by serious arm/shoulder problems? Anyhow, back to the original thread, does anyone else think Francisco could well be another Wily Mo? Awful lot of SOs to go with those HRs. Unfortunately I haven't had the opportunity to attend any Dragons games to see him. Any thoughts/observations?

It really has; everyone talked about Dumatrait and ignored my question about Dickerson. Although maybe that is an answer in itself.

[GoReds33]

I like Dickerson. I would have to say he would be about 24-25 ish on my list. Thats just a guess though.

[TOBTTReds]

like i said, 2nd outing in the bigs. who isn't going to still be nervous ??? give him time.... let the catcher's figure out his game and he'll be money...he'll dominate. let him get comfortable with his teammates...

This isn't a knock on Jorgensen, but he/you know his game as well as any catcher probably. His command was horrid in Chicago...although I in no way blame a catcher on a pitchers command. His CH drifted over the plate too much. If he is going to throw it that often, he's gotta keep it away from RH.

In reference to whether fans would want his AAA numbers in the big leagues, there is no doubt we do....but sadly, his AAA numbers don't translate to success in MLB. There are certain indicators that can tell you if he is going to be successful.

Buckeye had it right...

It's his 206.1 innings of AAA pitching in which he's given up 213 hits and walked 84 (1.44 WHIP), not to mention, his low K rates (5.58/9) in AAA that doesn't inspire much confidence with me - personally. Even looking at his AA numbers, I can't be too thrilled with a guy that walked 92 in 177.1 innings (4.67/9) although is K rates were better than the weak rate he's put up so far in AAA.

I hope he "dominates," I just don't see how it is possible though.

[Kc61]

This isn't a knock on Jorgensen, but he/you know his game as well as any catcher probably. His command was horrid in Chicago...although I in no way blame a catcher on a pitchers command.



I hope he "dominates," I just don't see how it is possible though.

Nobody says he will be a dominant NL pitcher. But after initial break-in periods (which folks repeatedly ignore) PDum did very well in the minor leagues. Taking aggregate statistics, without considering improvement at each level, is not the way to read a minor league record.

PD has no major league experience coming into this season, not even a cup of coffee. Let's give him some time please.

I don't think an outing in Wrigley, after a long rain delay, against a tough, extreme right handed lineup, in guy's third major league performance, determines anything.

[texasdave]

I hope Dumatrait turns out to be a spoke in the rotation wheel. That being said, I am not optimistic that he will achieve even that. I do agree that once a pitcher is brought up, and put into the rotation, they should be given a fair number of starts to adjust. It isn't easy getting major league hitters out. So, in a season as lost as this one seems to be, be patient. Giving a pitcher 2 or 3 starts to make a positive impression is a waste of time for both the pitcher and the club. How can a team reasonably evaluate someone in that short a stretch?

[AmarilloRed]

Since this is a discussion about Dumatrait, I will put in my two cents. He has a 10.32 ERA in 3 starts. He has pitched 11 1/3 innings , given up 20 hits, 13 er, and walked nine and struck out seven in those innings. I agree with texasdave that he should be given more starts, and the Reds have said they expect him to stay in the fourth slot as well. We really have no one else ready in the minor leagues, or he would not be here. He will need to show a lot of improvement to stay in the majors when Bailey is ready. Right now, I would pick Livingston over Dumatrait. He also gives up a lot of hits, but until recently he was able to strand the runners.

[Patrick Bateman]

Dumatrait never had a chance. He was hit hard in AAA, so it's not exactly shocking he's having the crap kicked out of him in the majors.

I'm still in favour of a move to the pen where his skills may be able to improve.