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Thread: Dunn rated 3rd most likely to break Bonds Record

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    Member dunner13's Avatar
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    Dunn rated 3rd most likely to break Bonds Record

    Heres an article from Espn by Rob Neyer,

    3. ADAM DUNN: 10 percent

    Age: 27 | Career HRs: 228 | 2007 HRs: 30 | Profile

    Dunn comes out as the No. 3 home-run hitter in the majors, among active players? According to this method, he does. Since Opening Day of 2004, Dunn has hit 156 home runs. Only David Ortiz (161) and Pujols (160) have hit more. So why doesn't Dunn's name come up in Hall of Fame discussions? Because he's a "Three True Outcomes" guy. With Dunn, everything's a homer or a strikeout or a walk, and only one of those (the first one) is appreciated by the cognoscenti. But even if we assume that 500 homers is not a magic number (it's not), and neither is 600 (jury's still out), what about 700? Dunn's established a 24-percent chance of hitting 700 home runs. The key for Dunn always will be his batting average. As long as he can hit .240, he'll have a job. But considering that his career average is just .247, we might reasonably guess there are just too many .220 seasons in Dunn's future.

    Projected Total: 578


    Dunn takes alot of heat for his strikeouts but the bottom line is he may very well retire as one of the best homerun hitters of all time. I think that unless he suffers alot of injuries hes a lock for 500 homeruns and 600 or 700 are within reach. The two people picked in front of dunn as more likely to break the record are Pujols and Arod.
    Last edited by dunner13; 08-08-2007 at 04:26 PM.

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    Re: Dunn rated 3rd most likely to break Bonds Record

    Whose first and second? I'm assuming A.Rod is number 1
    Most Vottomatic Player

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    Re: Dunn rated 3rd most likely to break Bonds Record

    1. Arod
    2. Pujols
    3. Dunn
    4. Ryan Howard
    5. Andruw Jones
    6. Ken Griffey Jr

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    Re: Dunn rated 3rd most likely to break Bonds Record

    KGJ? He's more likely to have his leg fall off in the on-deck circle than break 755 HRs...

    It's A-ROds record to DESTROY, I'm guessing 850 if he wanted too...

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS

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    Re: Dunn rated 3rd most likely to break Bonds Record

    I hope Junior goes to the AL eventually and stays healthy for another 5 years. He could hit 30 HR's per year and maybe catch Bonds. Is Barry done after this season?
    Who's on first?

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    Re: Dunn rated 3rd most likely to break Bonds Record

    Jr only had a 2 percent chance to beat Bonds while Dunn had a 10 percent chance. Arod was the highest at 48 percent I think.
    Whoever wants to know the heart and mind of America had better learn baseball - Jacques Barzun

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    Re: Dunn rated 3rd most likely to break Bonds Record

    Bonds will play in 2008...he wants to get to 3,000 hits and has said so.
    Reds fan since 1970

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    Re: Dunn rated 3rd most likely to break Bonds Record

    Dunn has no chance of breaking that record his swing is too huge and as he gets older hes going to have even more trouble making contact than he already does.

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    Re: Dunn rated 3rd most likely to break Bonds Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Muggerd View Post
    Dunn has no chance of breaking that record his swing is too huge and as he gets older hes going to have even more trouble making contact than he already does.
    Thanks for the insight. Now how do you possibly know what hes going to do? Saying he has no chance is stupid.
    Whoever wants to know the heart and mind of America had better learn baseball - Jacques Barzun

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    Re: Dunn rated 3rd most likely to break Bonds Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Muggerd View Post
    Dunn has no chance of breaking that record his swing is too huge and as he gets older hes going to have even more trouble making contact than he already does.
    We all know you HATE Dunn, but you dont need to bash him in every thread that mentions his name
    Whoever wants to know the heart and mind of America had better learn baseball - Jacques Barzun

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    Re: Dunn rated 3rd most likely to break Bonds Record

    Quote Originally Posted by mound_patrol View Post
    Thanks for the insight. Now how do you possibly know what hes going to do? Saying he has no chance is stupid.
    How do i know that he is going to get older and slower and that long sweeping swing of his isnt going to be as effective?

    Its because its just true. He doesnt have quick hands or a short swing.

    Im more realistic by saying he has no chance than you guys saying he does. Its possible sure but its one heck of a long shot.

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    Re: Dunn rated 3rd most likely to break Bonds Record

    Quote Originally Posted by mound_patrol View Post
    We all know you HATE Dunn, but you dont need to bash him in every thread that mentions his name
    How am I bashing Dunn? Why do you guys feel the need to support him every time a thread mentions his name? The Dunn supporters on this board have never said a negative thing about Dunn ever.

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    Re: Dunn rated 3rd most likely to break Bonds Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Muggerd View Post
    How do i know that he is going to get older and slower and that long sweeping swing of his isnt going to be as effective?

    Its because its just true. He doesnt have quick hands or a short swing.

    Im more realistic by saying he has no chance than you guys saying he does. Its possible sure but its one heck of a long shot.
    And the article covered that by saying he had a 10 percent chance of making it. Hes a power hitter and Homeruns are what he does best. If Dunn stays healthy he should easily cruise to 500 homeruns.
    Whoever wants to know the heart and mind of America had better learn baseball - Jacques Barzun

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    Re: Dunn rated 3rd most likely to break Bonds Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Muggerd View Post
    How am I bashing Dunn? Why do you guys feel the need to support him every time a thread mentions his name? The Dunn supporters on this board have never said a negative thing about Dunn ever.
    You know that's not true. We've all said he has faults. We just constantly have to keep telling you that he's a run producer because you forget after 10 second pass.
    Whoever wants to know the heart and mind of America had better learn baseball - Jacques Barzun

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    Re: Dunn rated 3rd most likely to break Bonds Record

    Quote Originally Posted by mound_patrol View Post
    And the article covered that by saying he had a 10 percent chance of making it. Hes a power hitter and Homeruns are what he does best. If Dunn stays healthy he should easily cruise to 500 homeruns.
    Im just saying that his swing is not going to be as effective as he gets older and slower. He would need to adjust by shortening it and its going to take a lot of Dunns power away.


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