Heres an article from Espn by Rob Neyer,
3. ADAM DUNN: 10 percent
Age: 27 | Career HRs: 228 | 2007 HRs: 30 | Profile
Dunn comes out as the No. 3 home-run hitter in the majors, among active players? According to this method, he does. Since Opening Day of 2004, Dunn has hit 156 home runs. Only David Ortiz (161) and Pujols (160) have hit more. So why doesn't Dunn's name come up in Hall of Fame discussions? Because he's a "Three True Outcomes" guy. With Dunn, everything's a homer or a strikeout or a walk, and only one of those (the first one) is appreciated by the cognoscenti. But even if we assume that 500 homers is not a magic number (it's not), and neither is 600 (jury's still out), what about 700? Dunn's established a 24-percent chance of hitting 700 home runs. The key for Dunn always will be his batting average. As long as he can hit .240, he'll have a job. But considering that his career average is just .247, we might reasonably guess there are just too many .220 seasons in Dunn's future.
Projected Total: 578
Dunn takes alot of heat for his strikeouts but the bottom line is he may very well retire as one of the best homerun hitters of all time. I think that unless he suffers alot of injuries hes a lock for 500 homeruns and 600 or 700 are within reach. The two people picked in front of dunn as more likely to break the record are Pujols and Arod.