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Thread: Would Bonds Have Broken Hank's Record WITHOUT Steroids?

  1. #1
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    Would Bonds Have Broken Hank's Record WITHOUT Steroids?

    Here is a curious question.
    Assume that Bonds never used steroids: Would he have hit 756 homers in his career?

    Here is my breaksown of the numbers.

    It is clear from stats and from pictures of him, that he started using steroids right before the 2001 season when he hit 73 homers. Before that, he was averaging 40 homers a season over the previous 9 seasons.
    If he kept that average up, he would have hit 240 homers from that time to the end of this year. Guess how many he has hit since then while using steroids? 240.
    Now that includes 2005 when he was "injured" and only played in 14 games, so the numbers are a bit skewed. Take out that year, and he would have hit 200 without steroids.
    I personally think that was a year he took off so he wouldn't be tested, so I think he actually would have played that year, so I would lean towards counting that year.
    However, even if you leave that off, he would be 40 short by the end of this year. He is on pace to hit around 30-35 this year, so it is reasonable to assume that he could keep playing two more years as a DH and get the record if he really wanted to.
    Now that also assumes that he would keep hitting 40 homers a year every year, which given his age, is a big stretch.

    Anyway, just throwing it out there, and seeing what everyone else thinks.

    Do you think that Barry Bonds would have broken Hank Aaron's all time home record of 756 if he had not used steroids?

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    Re: Would Bond's Have Broken Hank's Record WITHOUT Steroids?

    Typically, the number of home runs declines as a player ages so maintaining the average of 40 isn't a given. You made that point and it's a big one.

    One of the indicators that people use to assume that Bonds has used steroids is that he mysteriously has improved with age, putting up the best numbers of his entire career, at a time when most players are declining.

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    Re: Would Bond's Have Broken Hank's Record WITHOUT Steroids?

    How about this stat:

    8.2 - the number of AB's per HR Barry averaged from 2000-2004. He hit 258 HR's in that span of 5 years. Ages 35-39. The PREVIOUS 5 years he hit one every 18.1 AB's.

    NO FREAKIN WAY does he break the record without ROIDS.

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    Re: Would Bond's Have Broken Hank's Record WITHOUT Steroids?

    There's no way he breaks the record, but he was one of the all-time greats anyway.

    Would have been 500 HRs/500 SBs without ever touching the stuff. Would have probably hit 600 homers too.
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    Re: Would Bond's Have Broken Hank's Record WITHOUT Steroids?

    If Bonds didn't take steroids and Griffey wouldn't have gotten hurt then we would have a different home run king right now.
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    Re: Would Bond's Have Broken Hank's Record WITHOUT Steroids?

    if wishes were fishes, and lies were fries, oh what a fish fry we'd have.

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    Re: Would Bond's Have Broken Hank's Record WITHOUT Steroids?

    I don't think Bonds breaks the record without steroids, but the simple fact remains that he has broken Aaron's record. So here is another question: Has Bonds breaking the HR record been good or bad for baseball?

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    Re: Would Bond's Have Broken Hank's Record WITHOUT Steroids?

    unless steroids improve your hand eye coordination who knows, he only had one pitch a game basically in 2001 and he still made that one pitch count. i don't really know what my arguement is, but i will say since he broke the record i've had to rethink my view of him. he seems more human than ever, more friendly than ever, and i'll be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for a while.
    Hey Homer! If you can put it together, you'll put the Reds over the top....think about it.

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    Re: Would Bond's Have Broken Hank's Record WITHOUT Steroids?

    Yes I think he still would have broken it. Hes easily not the strongest guy in baseball. Its his hand eye cordination with the ability to get a ton of backspin on balls he drives. His ability to recognize a strike and even if its a strike he could do something with was the biggest improvement IMO. Even now when hes in his ruts its because of his pitch location recognition.

    150+ Hrs didnt come just from taking steriods.

    To answer the other question I think its been bad for baseball. He never cheated since steriods werent against the rules till recently but some would say its not moral.

    One last thing, he most likely didnt take actual steriods. It was probably HGH which isnt a steriod. It is a performance enhancing drug but in this whole scandal all performance enhancing drugs have kinda been grouped as "steriods".

    Another thing many people dont know is HGH has never been found to have negative effects in ANY real scientific study. I'm not saying they cant be harmful but there is no proof. Many have pointed to steriod and HGH users dying at young ages from things such as cancer. However, how many people do you know who have died from cancer and definately not taken these drugs?

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    Re: Would Bond's Have Broken Hank's Record WITHOUT Steroids?

    Quote Originally Posted by degenerate10 View Post
    If Bonds didn't take steroids and Griffey wouldn't have gotten hurt then we would have a different home run king right now.
    You're right: the home run king would still be Hank Aaron.

    There's no natural way that Bonds could have out-OBP'ed his career average by 150 points and out SLG"ed his career average by 200 points in his late 30s. Where that puts him? I'm not sure, but it's not in the mid-700s.

    But a while ago, I looked at some Griffey numbers, and while Junior has been remarkably consistent with his power numbers over his entire career (he averaged a HR every 14.7 ABs as a Mariner, and has averaged EXACTLY the same so far as a Red, including one HR every 14.3 ABs so far in 2007).

    If Junior stays healthy enough to average 500 ABs per year since coming to Cinci (a number I believe is reasonable, as he only averaged 535 ABs per year as a Mariner), that would put him at 668 career HR at the END off 2007. Even keeping up his every 14.7 AB pace as he turns 38 and 39, he'd still be short of Hank's record at the end of the 2009 season (his Option Year with the Reds) by about 20 HR.

    If you want to be unrealistically optimistic, and say Junior could have averaged 600 ABs per year as a Red? He STILL ends 2007 with "only" 723 career HR, and doesn't break the record until sometime after the 2008 All Star Break.

    And now you know... the Rest of the Story.


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    Re: Would Bonds Have Broken Hank's Record WITHOUT Steroids?

    Bonds would not have broken the record with out the aid of steroids.

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    Re: Would Bonds Have Broken Hank's Record WITHOUT Steroids?

    Well, it depends. Aaron may have not owned the record if not for the launching Pad. Ruth may have not owned it if he had to face more than white players.

    In the end, records mean very little anyway. They provide little to nothing when properly evaluating a players contributions on the field, and how it correlates to winning. I don't care if Aaron hit more homeruns than Babe Ruth or Willie Mays, both Ruth and Mays were superior players, and should be regarded as such.

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    Re: Would Bonds Have Broken Hank's Record WITHOUT Steroids?

    Barring injury, I'm afraid A-Rod will make this thread moot in 6-7 years.

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    Re: Would Bonds Have Broken Hank's Record WITHOUT Steroids?

    Quote Originally Posted by Goten View Post
    Well, it depends. Aaron may have not owned the record if not for the launching Pad. Ruth may have not owned it if he had to face more than white players.

    In the end, records mean very little anyway. They provide little to nothing when properly evaluating a players contributions on the field, and how it correlates to winning. I don't care if Aaron hit more homeruns than Babe Ruth or Willie Mays, both Ruth and Mays were superior players, and should be regarded as such.
    I understand your point. However, no one on here has claimed Aaron was better than those 2, so I don't understand why you feel the need to point that out.

    However, baseball is a special sport in this country, and one of the alleged reasons is the supposed aura of certain numbers and certain records. In no other sport that I can think of does a number mean so much (with the exception of 100 in the NBA).
    Think about it...61,.406,56,755,etc....baseball is sacred in this land and so are its records/past achievements.

    That said, I agree, a record is a record, and in the big picture it doesn't equate to winning...we all know that. But...Henry Aaron held a very special record and deserves all the respect and accolades that came with it.

    Unlike you, I do care that he hit 755 homeruns. That was remarkable, regardless how you try to knock him (i.e. "launchingpad/Babe only faced whites).

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    Re: Would Bonds Have Broken Hank's Record WITHOUT Steroids?

    I can't stand the guy. And I don't think he would have broken the record because steroids also give you a healing edge which helps aging ballplayers.

    But still, you can't take away that with or without steroids his hand-eye coordination is one of the greatest of all-time. Watching his hitting stroke when he drilled the record breaking home run, you could see how good a hitter he is. Classic swing, just like Griffey's is.

    He's a hall of famer with or without steroids. I resent him for tainting the game and his slightly inflated numbers.
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