08/09/07 minor league updates

[Redmachine2003]

What was the Box score of the Bats game. Milb is not working for me tonight.

[KeyMastur]

Final   1 	 2 	 3 	 4 	 5 	 6 	 7 	 8 	 9 	  	 R 	 H 	 E 
 Indy   0 	 0 	 0 	 0 	 0 	 1 	 0 	 0 	 0 	  	 1 	 4 	 1 
 Bats   1 	 5 	 0 	 4 	 0 	 0 	 6 	 0 	 X 	  	 16 	 16 	 1

[Patrick Bateman]

Good game from Coffey. I have little doubt that Coffey can contine to dominate AAA like he has every time he's been domoted.

I really believe that most of his struggles have been due to how volatile relievers can be in 40 inning type of samples. His peripherals have shown just how unlucky he has been this season. He mostly just needs time.

I have hope that 10 days from now both Coffey and Bray will be where they belong.

[BigRed07]

Dragons bullpen blows a 3 run lead in the bottom of the ninth. They give up 4 runs to lose 6-5.

[Degenerate39]

Good game from Coffey. I have little doubt that Coffey can contine to dominate AAA like he has every time he's been domoted.

I really believe that most of his struggles have been due to how volatile relievers can be in 40 inning type of samples. His peripherals have shown just how unlucky he has been this season. He mostly just needs time.

I have hope that 10 days from now both Coffey and Bray will be where they belong.

I wish Coffey would dominate the Majors like he does AAA

[Patrick Bateman]

I wish Coffey would dominate the Majors like he does AAA

As I said, much of his problems have been due to luck. The opposite has happened to Weathers. These things tend to even out. Considering the Reds ballpark and poor fielding, they will experience more bad luck on the pitching side.

The key is to seperate the luck from the skill level. I firmly believe Coffey's problems are mostly from luck, and over a small sample size like Coffey's and it's easy to see how it can happen. With average luck, I think Coffey could easily settle into being the pitcher he has was last seaosn.

IMO, there is nothing for Coffey to learn in AAA. He's shown what he can do there. He's one of the few pitchers the Reds have with any type of major league success. Thus Coffey needs to be given every chance possible to work out of his percieved problems. Perhaps the struggles continue, but it sure as hell beats watching the likes of Santos, Guardado, Stanton, etc.

[Blue]

By my calculation, Cantu is sporting a .358/.393/.509 for an OPS of .902 since joining the Bats.

[Blue]

A prospect that I think is about to shoot up the Top 100 lists is Rangers catcher Taylor Teagarden. He has battled back from Tommy John surgery and a back injury, and is starting to adjust to AA after putting up ridiculous OBP and SLG numbers at High-A. He has now homered in back to back games.

[Kc61]

Good game from Coffey. I have little doubt that Coffey can contine to dominate AAA like he has every time he's been domoted.

I really believe that most of his struggles have been due to how volatile relievers can be in 40 inning type of samples. His peripherals have shown just how unlucky he has been this season. He mostly just needs time.

I have hope that 10 days from now both Coffey and Bray will be where they belong.

Coffey's ERA this year is 6.05. His home runs allowed rate has gone from 1 every 11 innings last year (7 in 78 innings) to 1 every 4 innings this year (11 in 44 innings). I agree that 44 innings is not a huge sample size, but to say Coffey's struggles this year is "bad luck" is, well, very debatable.

[Patrick Bateman]

Coffey's ERA this year is 6.05. His home runs allowed rate has gone from 1 every 11 innings last year (7 in 78 innings) to 1 every 4 innings this year (11 in 44 innings). I agree that 44 innings is not a huge sample size, but to say Coffey's struggles this year is "bad luck" is, well, very debatable.

It's definitely a fair debate. I would be one of the few suggesting that his main struggles are attributable to luck.

But that's why he needs to be in the majors. We know what he can do in AAA. Can anyone honestly say 100% that Coffey's struggles are not due to mainly luck?

Why are guys like Santos on the roster right now, when the Reds could be trying to solve important questions that could be major factors in future seasons. The Reds need to see what they have with Coffey. 44 brutal innings isn't enough to make a judgement about a guy with past, relevant success. There is nothing to lose here.

[Cedric]

It's definitely a fair debate. I would be one of the few suggesting that his main struggles are attributable to luck.

But that's why he needs to be in the majors. We know what he can do in AAA. Can anyone honestly say 100% that Coffey's struggles are not due to mainly luck?

Why are guys like Santos on the roster right now, when the Reds could be trying to solve important questions that could be major factors in future seasons. The Reds need to see what they have with Coffey. 44 brutal innings isn't enough to make a judgement about a guy with past, relevant success. There is nothing to lose here.

Todd Coffey has given up 230 hits in 180 MLB innings. He has a career whip at 1.60.

There is nothing unlucky about that. When you can't come within a foot of your intended spot you probably aren't going to have much BABIP luck. He's a perfect case example of why BABIP isn't just luck, IMO. When Coffey gives up hits they aren't of the cheap variety. They are absolute missles because they are right down the middle. I've watched countless Coffey innings on DVR and that is 100% fact. He's not getting bad luck.

I'd suggest that Todd Coffey always has a high BABIP for a reason. And sadly for the Reds and our payroll it aint luck.

[Patrick Bateman]

Todd Coffey has given up 230 hits in 180 MLB innings. He has a career whip at 1.60.

There is nothing unlucky about that. When you can't come within a foot of your intended spot you probably aren't going to have much BABIP luck. He's a perfect case example of why BABIP isn't just luck, IMO. When Coffey gives up hits they aren't of the cheap variety. They are absolute missles because they are right down the middle. I've watched countless Coffey innings on DVR and that is 100% fact. He's not getting bad luck.

How did I know that you were going to disagree with this?

You are right, his BAPIP for his career is a ridiculous .348, but his LD% is 20.6%. That's a little high, but pretty close to average. There are few examples of pitchers that have been able to control the destiny of line drives, whether good or bad, and Coffey is not an exception.

Especially this season his LD% is 16.0%, which is well below average. It is not fact that Coffey gives up blistering line drives at a monumental pace. Based on Coffey not really giving up many more line drives than the expected, I still see his unfortunate BAPIP as a combination of bad luck and bad defense.

If he continues to keep the liune drives to a minimum, the BAPIP will come down. It's as simple as that. Batted balls will find fielders eventually. A LD% of 16% does not go hand in hand with a .357 BAPIP. Considering his career to date is only 180 innings, it's easy to see how luck can deviate so easily.

I don't see the conclusive evidence you are talking about. There is nothing in Coffey's numbers that show a discernable skill that should be leading to an extra high BAPIP. The same goes for his HR/FB rate. Up until this season it was at a normal rate, until it exploded. Again, considering he gets plenty of grounballs, I don't see any kind of conclusive evidnece that suggests that he should be giving up nearly as many homers as he has.

I would bet good money that given time, both his BAPIP and HR/FB rate would reduce dramatically. I like Coffey. When I watch him I think he's a lot better then the results have been showing. Obviously we see things differently with Coffey, but I don't see the evidence that Coffey is going to be a major exception to stats that have been very accurate to date.

[Cedric]

How did I know that you were going to disagree with this?

You are right, his BAPIP for his career is a ridiculous .348, but his LD% is 20.6%. That's a little high, but pretty close to average. There are few examples of pitchers that have been able to control the destiny of line drives, whether good or bad, and Coffey is not an exception.

Especially this season his LD% is 16.0%, which is well below average. It is not fact that Coffey gives up blistering line drives at a monumental pace. Based on Coffey not really giving up many more line drives than the expected, I still see his unfortunate BAPIP as a combination of bad luck and bad defense.

If he continues to keep the liune drives to a minimum, the BAPIP will come down. It's as simple as that. Batted balls will find fielders eventually. A LD% of 16% does not go hand in hand with a .357 BAPIP. Considering his career to date is only 180 innings, it's easy to see how luck can deviate so easily.

I don't see the conclusive evidence you are talking about. There is nothing in Coffey's numbers that show a discernable skill that should be leading to an extra high BAPIP. The same goes for his HR/FB rate. Up until this season it was at a normal rate, until it exploded. Again, considering he gets plenty of grounballs, I don't see any kind of conclusive evidnece that suggests that he should be giving up nearly as many homers as he has.

I would bet good money that given time, both his BAPIP and HR/FB rate would reduce dramatically. I like Coffey. When I watch him I think he's a lot better then the results have been showing. Obviously we see things differently with Coffey, but I don't see the evidence that Coffey is going to be a major exception to stats that have been very accurate to date.

Sadly his babip has been very accurate

I see nothing in his game that suggests it will suddenly get better. The truly hittable pitchers have high BABIP. Why? Because they aren't very good at their craft. Nothing personal, just the game.

I'm having a case of deja vu though

[BRM]

A buddy of mine who has season tickets to the Bats said White Sox GM Ken Williams was at the game last night. He sat right across the aisle from him. He said Williams left after the 5th inning.

[camisadelgolf]

I'll be the first to defend Todd Coffey, but I'll also be the first to say that his failures aren't a result of bad luck. He may have had a higher BABIP than usual, but it's not high enough to explain the rest of his stats. I attribute it all on his confidence. I'd keep him at AAA and tell him to work on his offspeed stuff. And if I knew what I were talking about, I'd show him some video of his most successful outings.