08/09/07 minor league updates

[texasdave]

Some numbers for Reds relievers (over 20 IP):

Reliever	ERA	DIPS	K/9	K/BB	WHIP	HR/9
Weathers	3.28	3.30	5.77	2.73	1.09	0.47
Burton  	3.68	4.21	7.77	1.19	1.50	0.41
Stanton 	4.83	4.27	6.15	2.00	1.59	0.88
Salmon  	3.92	4.43	7.84	2.25	1.26	1.31
Santos  	4.50	4.48	7.63	1.95	1.41	1.37
Saarloos	7.03	4.50	5.98	1.45	1.73	0.76
Gosling 	4.35	4.84	10.02	1.21	2.13	1.31
Coutlangus	3.91	4.91	7.85	1.28	1.53	0.74
Coffey  	6.04	5.57	7.25	2.12	1.75	2.22

If you hold DIPS to be a more accurate measure of how a pitcher is pitching, it looks like Weathers and a whole lot of mediocrity (or worse). Comparing DIPS to ERA, Weathers has been neither lucky nor unlucky. Coffey has been slightly unlucky this year. He still has the worst DIPS of any reliever that has pitched any significant amount of innings for the Reds. DIPS-wise, looking at those numbers and ahead to 2008, there really is only one answer to the question 'How we looking?'. Not good.

[Patrick Bateman]

I'll be the first to defend Todd Coffey, but I'll also be the first to say that his failures aren't a result of bad luck. He may have had a higher BABIP than usual, but it's not high enough to explain the rest of his stats. I attribute it all on his confidence. I'd keep him at AAA and tell him to work on his offspeed stuff. And if I knew what I were talking about, I'd show him some video of his most successful outings.

The main problem with Coffey is the HR/FB, and basically it is highest I have really seen over much of a sample. Needless to say, it's basically 100% guaranteed that it will decrease dramatically even if Coffey doesn't pitch any better. Same with the high BAPIP. There is definitely a lot of bad luck affecting Coffey's numbers.

[Patrick Bateman]

If you hold DIPS to be a more accurate measure of how a pitcher is pitching, it looks like Weathers and a whole lot of mediocrity (or worse). Comparing DIPS to ERA, Weathers has been neither lucky nor unlucky. Coffey has been slightly unlucky this year. He still has the worst DIPS of any reliever that has pitched any significant amount of innings for the Reds. DIPS-wise, looking at those numbers and ahead to 2008, there really is only one answer to the question 'How we looking?'. Not good.

That's all true, but my main point is whether Coffey's massive HR rate is due to ineffectiveness, or mainly a factor of luck? remember, we are only talking about a 44 inning sample.

Maybe it's a combination of both, but coffey does have a very nice groundball rate, and the rest of his peripherals are within career norms. The only numbers that look really questionable are the HR/FB and BAPIP. Everything else makes Coffey look like a solid reliever. How likely is it that Coffey's BAPIP and HR/FB remain ridiculously high, while he still maintains decent peripheral numbers?

I'm not saying coffey is the answer to all our problems, but I think there is a very legitamite cahnce that Coffey can go back to being a slightly above average reliever. An asset in middle relief/set-up that the Reds don't currently have.

[texasdave]

That's all true, but my main point is whether Coffey's massive HR rate is due to ineffectiveness, or mainly a factor of luck? remember, we are only talking about a 44 inning sample.

Maybe it's a combination of both, but coffey does have a very nice groundball rate, and the rest of his peripherals are within career norms. The only numbers that look really questionable are the HR/FB and BAPIP. Everything else makes Coffey look like a solid reliever. How likely is it that Coffey's BAPIP and HR/FB remain ridiculously high, while he still maintains decent peripheral numbers?

I'm not saying coffey is the answer to all our problems, but I think there is a very legitamite cahnce that Coffey can go back to being a slightly above average reliever. An asset in middle relief/set-up that the Reds don't currently have.

I hope you are right, because the Reds need all the relief help they can get.

[Mario-Rijo]

I'll be the first to defend Todd Coffey, but I'll also be the first to say that his failures aren't a result of bad luck. He may have had a higher BABIP than usual, but it's not high enough to explain the rest of his stats. I attribute it all on his confidence. I'd keep him at AAA and tell him to work on his offspeed stuff. And if I knew what I were talking about, I'd show him some video of his most successful outings.

I think this is very accurate. For whatever reason he has not had the confidence in his off-speed/breaking stuff. he is throwing an awful lot of FB's and when the opposition is looking FB and get's it well then you get the end result he has been getting. Which would marry itself to having a high amount of balls hammered be it on the ground or in the air.

I would ask Cedric if he could go back and look at the DVR again and see if he can tell how many of those pitches that were getting drilled were anything but FB's. And how often guys seemingly were just sitting on a FB and letting everything else go by. And just how little Todd was actually throwing anything but FB's.

I could be wrong but that's what I think has been the culprit.

BTW CoffeyBro, am I seeing that right? Did Todd get a HR or was just fortunate enough to get a RBI and be driven in? Either way congrats to him! And also congrats on having such a good outing.

[Eric_Davis]

Cedric, I agree more with what one sees with their eyes than with what a stat says about a player. I'll trust more with what you're seeing than with what a DIPS or BIPS states.

The scouts and management of the REDS trust their eyes. Why shouldn't we? Maybe because we don't see them "IN PERSON" every day like they do, so we don't have anything else to go by so we use what we've got...the DIPS and BIPS, etc.

The problem with Coffey has got to be between the ears. It has to be in his head. He has way too many innings pitched in both AAA and the Majors for it to be luck, or lack of it. Everyone agrees he has "the stuff", so the only thing left is mental maturity or baseball maturity, whatever you want to call it.

That's what always separates one level of professional worker from another,....how they handle tougher pressure, and Coffey's not handling the pressure of the Major Leagues right now. Brantley bluntly called it choking, but to put it nicer, Coffey's not handling the pressure of pitching in the Big Leagues right now. It's an edge that constantly has to be retained every day. Why do you think veterans say to young players who are in a groove, "Don't think about it"?

[Coffeybro]

BTW CoffeyBro, am I seeing that right? Did Todd get a HR or was just fortunate enough to get a RBI and be driven in? Either way congrats to him! And also congrats on having such a good outing.

He got a base hit with runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out. The pitch was a hanging slider by the looks of it. He then went on to score from second after a walk, an out, then base hit.

[Mario-Rijo]

He got a base hit with runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out. The pitch was a hanging slider by the looks of it. He then went on to score from second after a walk, an out, then base hit.

Sweet, that's gotta make a guy feel a little better!

[Coffeybro]

Almost forgot, FYI Krivsky was at the Bats game last night.

[Mario-Rijo]

Almost forgot, FYI Krivsky was at the Bats game last night.

WK and Ken Williams huh? Humm...maybe something is up. Williams was said to leave after/around the 5th. Hmmm could be something, could be nothing. Hopefully he wasn't looking too hard at pitching it wasn't a good night for that.

Oops disregard I was thinking of Wednesday's game.

BTW Dickerson Played LF last night and tore it up, this is in response to the next post by ED!

[Eric_Davis]

WK and Ken Williams huh? Humm...maybe something is up. Williams was said to leave after/around the 5th. Hmmm could be something, could be nothing. Hopefully he wasn't looking too hard at pitching it wasn't a good night for that.

ESPN reported that Scott Podsednick was claimed by the CUBS, so the White Sox have 2 days to trade him to the CUBS, pull back the waiver, or let him go.