Do you really want Jay Bruce sitting on the bench next year, or even the year after?

[BRM]

I apologize for sounding condescending. I didn't realize I was doing that. Thanks for pointing that out and I'll try to reword things so they don't come out that way.

That .914 OPS is currently 4 points higher than Dunn's .910 OPS.

I can't see how anyone can find fault in a guy who's accomplishing that.

My apologies as well. I may have misread your post.

I don't fault what Josh is doing either. He's had a heck of a rookie season when he's been healthy. I'm with Doug and M2 though for next year. I pencil him in for sure but I certainly won't be counting on 150 games from him. The team will need a quality 4th and probably 5th outfielder on hand if Hamilton and Junior are both starting.

[Redsland]

He should play Winter Ball, work some more on his defense and rustiness, then take a couple of months off, and be ready for an even better year in 2008.

The problem with that plan is the fact that winter ball ends about two weeks before pitchers and catchers report for spring training, so you can't play winter ball and "take a couple of months off." It's got to be one or the other.

[M2]

Hamilton's proved himself. An OPS of 1.156 OPS in AAA this year. It's just batting practice down there for him, though his defense needs a lot of practice. He should play Winter Ball to work on his defense, and not see himself as a polished player. Hamilton has also proved himself at the Major League level to be nothing less than a starter every day. Name another RED who had an OPS of .950+ their rookie year with at least 250 at-bats. Hamilton is much more than the REDS ever hoped he'd be.

Short memory you've got. Austin Kearns had a .950 OPS through his first 500 ABs. And when I suggested the Reds deal him back then I was told I was craaaayyyyzzzzeeee.

dougdirt already noted that Hamilton's always been fragile.

You say you don't want to see Hamilton as your Center Fielder. Then why would you want Dunn on the team because Hamilton will play CF if Dunn is on this team? Griffey's not going anywhere next year and probably not the year after that.

Funny, I don't think your say so means squat when it comes to whether Jr. will be traded. I'm not saying he will or he won't, but he certainly can be and, IMO, he should be.

I'm also cool with Hamilton on the bench. Got zero problems with that. That's where he's been when Dunn, Freel and Jr. have all been healthy.

The only way to get Hamilton out of CF is to get Dunn out of Cincinnati. Bruce will be the CF by sometime in June of next year if his current .947 OPS holds up in AAA.

It's a lot easier than that to get Hamilton out of CF. In fact it's as simple as playing someone else there. Adam Dunn plays LF and could continue to do regardless of who gets stationed in CF.

Junior may not cause you to attend a game, but he causes others to attend a game.

Are these invisible people? Because the Reds attendance sucks.

He's worth a huge dollar amount to the franchise both in credibility, marketing value, and attendance.

You mean the credibility and marketing value of seven straight losing seasons? And the chronically low attendance despite the new ballpark?

People love to see Ken Griffey, Jr. play baseball, and he's playing fantastic this year. An exceptional human being who has several good years left in him.

I like Jr. just fine, but I know better than to insist he's some sort of talisman when the attendance is so low and his time in town has coincided with the franchise's worst run in modern history.

You're trying to justify signing Dunn because it's only a $3M raise. Actually it's only a $2M raise. $13M - $10.5M - $.5M option buyout they don't have to pick up. But, it could be up to a $5M raise as bonuses kick in for 2008 that could push his deal to $16M.

If Dunn wins the MVP, I'd happily pay the extra freight.

But the ONLY'S don't stop there. In 2007, it was ONLY a $3M raise ($10.5M - $7.5M). In 2006, it was ONLY a $2.9M raise ($7.5M - $4.6M). In 2005, it was ONLY a $4.155M raise ($4.6M - $.445M).

So, for Dunn, he's had raises in the last three years of $3M, $2.9M, and $4.155M, and you want to give him another $2M - $5M

Golly it's almost like he keeps playing well and earning these raises. Man, I hate that. Why can't he suck and be cheaper?

when you have a guy who could step in and replace him adequately, superiorly on defense improving the pitching staff overall, much better hitting in the clutch, a legitimate #4 hitter (though as you pointed out, Dunn was always used wrong and I agree with you as he should have batted in the #2 hole and he would have been a 120 run scorer, hit for much better average for many reasons, and still gotten his 100 RBI's every year), hit for a higher average, but hit for less power.

I figure if his average goes up then so does his power. He doesn't stop being a giant man in the #2 hole.

Frankly, I doubt the Reds have the stuff on hand to replace him. I'd take that chance for the right return in trade (because outside of Jay Bruce and possibly Aaron Harang I don't think there's any untouchables with this franchise), but if Dunn goes for nothing then the Reds will be taking an extended dirt nap.

Bruce won't be as good as Dunn next year overall, but Bruce will certainly be good enough to justify saving $13M-$16M.

When they start adjusting team records based on payroll I'll care about that. Until then, winning is winning, losing is losing and the Reds can easily afford Adam Dunn.

No G.M. worth a grain of salt with the situation he has with the REDS would keep Dunn through the end of 2008 without a diehard attempt to trade him by the end of June so Bruce could take his place.

So no GM worth a grain of salt would dare to think differently than you? I beg to differ.

Your way would guarantee to keep the seats empty in the GAB as the REDS would have not enough monies to spend on pitching ensuring the club to flounder in the bottom half of the standings in the National League.

My way would conserve the team's limited talent resources and give the franchise options moving forward. My way would replace the oldest, least dependable member of the OF. My way wouldn't be a bullheaded rush toward calamity.

Honestly, you've spent years cheerleading the moves that have landed the club in the bottom half of the standings. You'll pardon me if I'm not convinced this is anything but more of the same.

[Eric_Davis]

It's all very interesting.

Because Krivsky failed to trade Dunn, he may have forced his own hand and has to pick up the Option for 2008. With Dunn's no-trade clause before June 15th build into that option, that forces Bruce to remain in AAA until at least that date unless Dunn waives the clause. Everything's negotiable. If Dunn's willing to talk, something can be worked out.

If I were Dunn, I would want to be a Free-Agent now rather than wait a year. I think Dunn could get a better contract now than he could next year. He's had a tremendous year...#2 in the league in 2-out RBI's. Heading towards another 100 Run, 100 RBI, 40 HR, 90 BB year.

Teams don't walk Dunn intentionally anymore. They don't fear him. They'd rather pitch to him. He only had 3 intentional walks this year, where he had 12, 14, 11, 8, and 13 the 5 years before. They think they can strike him out, and if that doesn't happen, he might walk anyway. But, I think it's come back to bite them, and that's why he's second in the league in 2-out RBI's. I think teams will intentionally walk him again next year and pitch a little more carefully to him with 2 outs and his 2-out RBI's will go down, but his walk will go back up, both intentional and the ones he earns.

[Eric_Davis]

The problem with that plan is the fact that winter ball ends about two weeks before pitchers and catchers report for spring training, so you can't play winter ball and "take a couple of months off." It's got to be one or the other.

My mistake...I meant the Arizona Fall League.

[oneupper]

The problem with that plan is the fact that winter ball ends about two weeks before pitchers and catchers report for spring training, so you can't play winter ball and "take a couple of months off." It's got to be one or the other.

Unfortunately...not true.

Players going to winter ball will often go AWOL around Christmas and not come back after the Christmas/New Years break.

Not nice...but it's done.

Of course, the best local players usually report AFTER November, so December and January are probably when the best baseball is being played in the Winter Leagues, so leaving early kind of defeats the purpose.

[Heath]

I still think the logical place that Jr. gets traded to, if he gets traded, is Atlanta. It's close to Orlando, they train in Orlando, and while they aren't the NL East juggernaunt like they used to be, they still find themselves in contention every year.

Two years of Griffey in Turner Field ought to be interesting.

Jay Bruce starts in Louisville. He only comes to Cincinnati ready to play every day.

[Eric_Davis]

M2, I respect your opinions a lot and feel that you have a tremendouse amount of knowledge and foresight about players and the REDS. I hope you know that. Sometimes your foresight is uncanny, and because of that I think a lot more about the things that you write.

I really sense a lot of frustration from you that I haven't felt in year's past about how the REDS are running things. I don't think REDS' fans deserve anything less than a winner on the field after paying through the nose for a new stadium while being given broken promises after broken promises.

I noticed one awkward wording in my reference to Bruce and Dunn. I mentioned that Bruce's average would be better than Dunn's but that his power would be less next year, but it came out like sounding that I thought Dunn's average would be up if he hit in the #2 hole, and that Dunn's average would be down. I don't think Dunn's average would be down wherever he hit, and in fact, I think it would be up, also from the #2 hole.

As far as my supporting the REDS' moves over the years.

I won't go back as far as the 13 years I've been around these boards, but I lambasted the Larkin extension, saying from the get-go that the team would never finish .500 as long as that contract was still owned by the REDS. I lambasted the Griffey trade saying that the team would never compete if it spends that high of a percentage of the total player on a position player. But, Junior deferred half of his salary every year, so it made it affordable.

I praised the Milton signing for the concept of it. Spending $7M/year for three years in an attempt to get a #2-#3 pitcher was the right philosphy at the time. A couple more of those would have been great, though it would have been better if it hadn't been damaged goods, as Milton has been well documented to have been througout the contract. A lot of G.M.'s tend to pick up damaged goods from other teams (Freddy Garcia and the Phils as an example).

I praised the Kearns/Lopez for pitching and prospects for not just the concept, but I liked Harris and Thompson as well as Bray. I didn't like Majewski. I thought Harris was the 2nd best player in the deal for the REDS behind Bray, and I always believe that in any trade, you should get the player with the most potential unless you're giving something away to try to get into the playoffs. I felt the best player in the whole deal was Bray and I hated Lopez' defense and always thought Kearns was over-rated. Albeit that, your analysis of the trade at the time was the best of anyone on REDSZONE. It had the most foresight and accurate analysis. You can look back and read everyone's and yours was pinpoint accurate.

I lambasted the Harris trade for cash.

I've lowered my opinion of Krivsky as the months have gone on, most notably, after letting the season get tanked before firing Narron, learning through the analysis by WOY the foolish trade of Germano for Cormier, the obtaining of Harris only to give him away for nothing, when Juan Castro was still on the team, the retention of Valentin which requires a 3rd catcher to be on the bench, the signing of Conine, the inconsistent handling of Saarloos, the allowing of Encarncion to be benched when there's no hope of reaching the playoffs anyway. The playing of veterans too often rather than developing some of the minor leaguers at the Major League level, or at least to see what they can do, in similar fashion to what the Diamondbacks attempt to do.

I do love the new ownership, as this was a doomed franchise under Banana-man. They hired Krivsky, and he needs to be given at least 3 years before you can accurately see what he has accomplished. I'm thankful the Castellini group doesn't bend like a willow to some of the fans' whims. Nobody runs a successful business by firing their G.M. every year or two as most fans on this board would like to see happen.

Some Cincinnati sportswriters and others on this board say that owner and management doesn't have a plan. Of course there are plans even if some can't see it.

Improved defense up the middle and improved bullpen pitching and improved starting pitching and improved scouting and improved coaching throughout the organization at every level are obvious plans being attempted on a monthly basis by the REDS. These plans will produce a franchise that, once established, will produce winning season after winning season. O'Brien gave it a good start, and Krivsky is continuing to carry out this plan even though there is a new owner.

I'm a Bengals fan. I have a lot patience. I'm also realistic in knowing that improvements start from the top. First the owner had to change, then the G.M., then scouting departments, then the coaches and managers at every level. Those moves alone take six months to 2 years to analyze and implement and another 1 to 2 years to see positive results. The rest will take care of itself as players go through the system, but you've got to look 4-5 years down the road from when the new owner took over to see if it's working. You can't make an comprehensive evaluation about the franchise in less time than that.

There's no reason to believe that this team won't have a winning record in 2009, and then continuously after that as long as the Castellini group is still in charge. But, they might not also, as you say, because of all things that you see going on with the franchise. It should all be clear 24 months from now if Castellini is a good owner. So far, I think he's been great.

[M2]

I really sense a lot of frustration from you that I haven't felt in year's past about how the REDS are running things.

Then your sensors are off. I'm a heck of a lot more upbeat about the current situation than I was when DanO was in charge. That was a colossal disaster. I am, however, not particularly enthusiastic of the franchise's continued failure to commit to either a thorough rebuild or a major reload.

I won't go back as far as the 13 years I've been around these boards, but I lambasted the Larkin extension, saying from the get-go that the team would never finish .500 as long as that contract was still owned by the REDS. I lambasted the Griffey trade saying that the team would never compete if it spends that high of a percentage of the total player on a position player. But, Junior deferred half of his salary every year, so it made it affordable.

Don't blame the contracts for a franchise that can't pick pitchers. The Reds could have just as easily thrown money at Pokey Reese and Dmitri Young (they certainly tried). The problem when you don't know any better than to trot out the disastrous rotations the Reds have tried in this century is it doesn't matter how you spend your money.

I praised the Milton signing for the concept of it. Spending $7M/year for three years in an attempt to get a #2-#3 pitcher was the right philosphy at the time.

Once again, ineptitude in pitching assessment trumps all. Doesn't matter if you spend money on bad pitching. It's still bad pitching. Eric Milton had established himself as a bad pitcher by that time. Concept means nothing to a franchise that can't pick 'em.

I praised the Kearns/Lopez for pitching and prospects for not just the concept, but I liked Harris and Thompson as well as Bray.

I liked Harris. We'll see about Bray. I'd trade Thompson tomorrow for a reserve catcher and consider it a steal. He's got a radar tickling fastball that people hit, straight out of the Luke Hudson School of Pitching.

Now imagine if the Kearns and Lopez had fetched as much as Jose Guillen and Wily Mo Pena? Kearns and Lopez were each worth more. Amazing what getting a good return can do.

Albeit that, your analysis of the trade at the time was the best of anyone on REDSZONE. It had the most foresight and accurate analysis. You can look back and read everyone's and yours was pinpoint accurate.

Thanks for the kind words, but there were a lot of folks who were saying the same things. I didn't say anything about that deal that Redsland, Puffy or Johnny Footstool didn't.

The playing of veterans too often rather than developing some of the minor leaguers at the Major League level, or at least to see what they can do, in similar fashion to what the Diamondbacks attempt to do.

The D-Backs are fascinating. The offense has been horrible and the starting pitching problematic, but the club is playing 10 games better than its pythag. Maybe, in the end, all you need is a bullpen.

I do love the new ownership, as this was a doomed franchise under Banana-man. They hired Krivsky, and he needs to be given at least 3 years before you can accurately see what he has accomplished. I'm thankful the Castellini group doesn't bend like a willow to some of the fans' whims. Nobody runs a successful business by firing their G.M. every year or two as most fans on this board would like to see happen.

We'll see if Castellini keeps Krivsky around after this season. Wayne might be Bob's starter GM.

Improved defense up the middle and improved bullpen pitching and improved starting pitching and improved scouting and improved coaching throughout the organization at every level are obvious plans being attempted on a monthly basis by the REDS.

I think some of that is lip service. The previous two regimes were attempting to do the same thing. Where the rubber meets the road is being able to improve the pitching and defense while still fielding a capable offense. We haven't seen anything like that yet. FWIW, I think it's the right place to aim.

There's no reason to believe that this team won't have a winning record in 2009, and then continuously after that as long as the Castellini group is still in charge.

If Dunn goes out the door for bupkus then I think you can safely spend your summers in Nepal until about 2011 and not worry about missing any glory when it comes to Reds baseball.

[Eric_Davis]

Thanks for the kind words, but there were a lot of folks who were saying the same things. I didn't say anything about that deal that Redsland, Puffy or Johnny Footstool didn't.

That's nice of you to be modest, but I read every single post about 4 months ago from the archives, and it took about five hours to read them all. It was very exhausting. Your spin on the trade was unique. You could reprint it today and it would seem as if it was written in the last week. It had no inaccuracies and all things were predicted with 100% accuracy. No other comments were as crystal clear.

[nate]

Well, Hamilton doesn't meet that criteria so I'm not sure you bring that up. He'll probably hit the 250 at-bat mark but his OPS is at .914.

Adam Dunn was very close in 2001. He had 244 at-bats with a .949 OPS.

Robby was close to that to:. .290/.379/.558

[camisadelgolf]

Most players coming off the DL start off hot.

I would love to see the stats that shows that.

And as if it means anything (it doesn't, though), I think Josh Hamilton will have problems staying healthy his entire career. I think it would've been a problem even if drugs weren't in the equation.

[kaldaniels]

If the Reds don't pick up his option I don't think it will be due to his raise, but more due to the fact that morons run this team. I don't think Dunn is a good fit for this team, especially based off of what the team is trying to be built around, but there is no way they can't choose to not use his option.

Dougdirt...taking the double negative to new standards...the triple negative

Seriously, I love your posts, but I couldn't resist!

[dougdirt]

Dougdirt...taking the double negative to new standards...the triple negative

Seriously, I love your posts, but I couldn't resist!

I get flustered when I begin to talk about the people who make the decisions for the Reds....

[AmarilloRed]

I understand that Dunn is a proven power hitter and Jay Bruce is just a AAA player, but if we would imagine there will not be much of a dropoff in power between Bruce and Dunn and Bruce would be expected to hit for a higher batting average with better defense; why wouldn't the Reds decline the option? I know it is a risk whenever you have a rookie try to replace a veteran hitter, but from all I've heard Jay Bruce is the real deal. The only way they might not decide to do it is if they don't think Bruce is ready to hit major league pitching. In that case, it would be a very good idea to call Bruce up in September and see whether he would be ready next year.