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Thread: Do you really want Jay Bruce sitting on the bench next year, or even the year after?

  1. #31
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Do you really want Jay Bruce sitting on the bench next year, or even the year aft

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Bruce vs. Dunn? What a perfectly silly false choice that is.

    First off, this notion that Josh Hamilton is a given is based on what? His long track record of success? His good health? I'm not saying Hamilton can't or won't be a decent player, but he might be nothing more than a 4th OF or a platoon player (and there's nothing wrong with that). I know this much, I've seen enough of Hamilton to not want him as a regular CF. He's fine as a backup option in CF, but I want more range than he's got out there. If Hamilton's going to be a regular, I'd want him in an OF corner.

    And then there's Jr. Given the Reds' pathetic attendance I think it's fair to say that no one on the roster puts fannies in seats. Jr. is the oldest player in the Reds' OF and historically the most fragile of the bunch. If you're looking to open a slot for Jay Bruce, then Jr.'s the guy who ought to go. You don't rebuild around guys in their late 30s.

    As for Dunn's option, if the Reds don't pick it up, then there's really no reason to view them as a viable major league franchise. Seriously, major league franchises don't release players like Dunn over piddly $3M raises. I don't advocate the Reds embrace futility.
    Hamilton's proved himself. An OPS of 1.156 OPS in AAA this year. It's just batting practice down there for him, though his defense needs a lot of practice. He should play Winter Ball to work on his defense, and not see himself as a polished player. Hamilton has also proved himself at the Major League level to be nothing less than a starter every day. Name another RED who had an OPS of .950+ their rookie year with at least 250 at-bats. Hamilton is much more than the REDS ever hoped he'd be.

    You say you don't want to see Hamilton as your Center Fielder. Then why would you want Dunn on the team because Hamilton will play CF if Dunn is on this team? Griffey's not going anywhere next year and probably not the year after that.

    The only way to get Hamilton out of CF is to get Dunn out of Cincinnati. Bruce will be the CF by sometime in June of next year if his current .947 OPS holds up in AAA.

    Junior may not cause you to attend a game, but he causes others to attend a game. He's worth a huge dollar amount to the franchise both in credibility, marketing value, and attendance. People love to see Ken Griffey, Jr. play baseball, and he's playing fantastic this year. An exceptional human being who has several good years left in him.

    You're trying to justify signing Dunn because it's only a $3M raise. Actually it's only a $2M raise. $13M - $10.5M - $.5M option buyout they don't have to pick up. But, it could be up to a $5M raise as bonuses kick in for 2008 that could push his deal to $16M.

    But the ONLY'S don't stop there. In 2007, it was ONLY a $3M raise ($10.5M - $7.5M). In 2006, it was ONLY a $2.9M raise ($7.5M - $4.6M). In 2005, it was ONLY a $4.155M raise ($4.6M - $.445M).

    So, for Dunn, he's had raises in the last three years of $3M, $2.9M, and $4.155M, and you want to give him another $2M - $5M when you have a guy who could step in and replace him adequately, superiorly on defense improving the pitching staff overall, much better hitting in the clutch, a legitimate #4 hitter (though as you pointed out, Dunn was always used wrong and I agree with you as he should have batted in the #2 hole and he would have been a 120 run scorer, hit for much better average for many reasons, and still gotten his 100 RBI's every year), hit for a higher average, but hit for less power.

    Bruce won't be as good as Dunn next year overall, but Bruce will certainly be good enough to justify saving $13M-$16M.

    No G.M. worth a grain of salt with the situation he has with the REDS would keep Dunn through the end of 2008 without a diehard attempt to trade him by the end of June so Bruce could take his place.

    Your way would guarantee to keep the seats empty in the GAB as the REDS would have not enough monies to spend on pitching ensuring the club to flounder in the bottom half of the standings in the National League.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

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  3. #32
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    Re: Do you really want Jay Bruce sitting on the bench next year, or even the year aft

    Quote Originally Posted by 5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM View Post
    I've seen mention of this a couple of times here and I have to interject. The notion that Hamilton is brittle IMO is as false as anything I have read on here lately. What would you expect from a guy who has been out of the game as much as Hamilton has. I don't think brittle has anything to do with it. I kind of compare it to when us non professional athletes use muscles that we havn't used for a while. I remember the first time I rode a bike in like 8 years, I had pain in spots I didn't know were there. I'm sure Josh had been swinging the bat during alot of his time away from the game but the riggers of everyday in the majors are something that is impossible to duplicate in even the most intense training program. It's a wrist sprain, it could have happened to anyone and if Derek Jeter had the same injury tomorrow we wouldn't call him brittle and he hasn't been away from the game as Hamilton has. This kid is going to be something special, and I refuse to tag him as injury prone after a fluke injury like this. Maybe he will prove me wrong but I hope not because as far as putting my butt in the seats of gabp, there's nobody like Josh Hamilton.
    Of course that's what it is, and it's also the reason for his eratic fielding which wasn't an issue when he was younger. To suggest anything else, especially words like brittle or injury-prone is ludicrous and void of medical verification.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  4. #33
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    Re: Do you really want Jay Bruce sitting on the bench next year, or even the year aft

    Quote Originally Posted by Redsland View Post
    He's missed 50 games. He's been on the DL twice. He sprained his wrist swinging a bat.

    Josh Hamilton is a great story, and he's performed well when he's been on the field, but the guy has a tough time staying healthy.

    As would anyone who didn't play the game for as long as he did. That stuff will go away.

    Injuries happen every spring to 100's of players, and they've only been out of the game for 4 or 5 months. Multiply that by 10 and you'll get some injuries, especially with the every day grind that MLB players go through.

    He should play Winter Ball, work some more on his defense and rustiness, then take a couple of months off, and be ready for an even better year in 2008.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  5. #34
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    Re: Do you really want Jay Bruce sitting on the bench next year, or even the year aft

    Hamilton couldnt stay healthy when he was young and in the minors either. I don't know if it is just coincidence or what, but he doesn't have any type of healthy track record.

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    Re: Do you really want Jay Bruce sitting on the bench next year, or even the year aft

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If the Reds don't pick up his option I don't think it will be due to his raise, but more due to the fact that morons run this team. I don't think Dunn is a good fit for this team, especially based off of what the team is trying to be built around, but there is no way they can't choose to not use his option.

    You mentioned another mistake of Wayne's involving the same player, Harris. Castro was the guy to move, but they wouldn't have gotten anything for him. They still would owe him the money, but he should have been released. I would have taken a box of baseballs for him, or a 16-year old International player...any body if someone was willing. I don't understand this love for Castro.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  7. #36
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    Re: Do you really want Jay Bruce sitting on the bench next year, or even the year aft

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Hamilton couldnt stay healthy when he was young and in the minors either. I don't know if it is just coincidence or what, but he doesn't have any type of healthy track record.
    Exactly.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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    Re: Do you really want Jay Bruce sitting on the bench next year, or even the year aft

    Name another RED who had an OPS of .950+ their rookie year with at least 250 at-bats.
    Well, Hamilton doesn't meet that criteria so I'm not sure you bring that up. He'll probably hit the 250 at-bat mark but his OPS is at .914.

    Adam Dunn was very close in 2001. He had 244 at-bats with a .949 OPS.

  9. #38
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    Re: Do you really want Jay Bruce sitting on the bench next year, or even the year aft

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Hamilton couldnt stay healthy when he was young and in the minors either. I don't know if it is just coincidence or what, but he doesn't have any type of healthy track record.

    That was drugs. You can't do drugs, the drugs he did, and do anything on a daily basis.

    I've literally seen 1000's and 1000's of people turn their life around like Hamilton seems to have done, and there's no reason to believe that what happened in the past is indicative of what will happen in the future.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  10. #39
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    Re: Do you really want Jay Bruce sitting on the bench next year, or even the year aft

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    That was drugs. You can't do drugs, the drugs he did, and do anything on a daily basis.

    I've literally seen 1000's and 1000's of people turn their life around like Hamilton seems to have done, and there's no reason to believe that what happened in the past is indicative of what will happen in the future.
    No. Before that.

  11. #40
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    Re: Do you really want Jay Bruce sitting on the bench next year, or even the year aft

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    Well, Hamilton doesn't meet that criteria so I'm not sure you bring that up. He'll probably hit the 250 at-bat mark but his OPS is at .914.

    Adam Dunn was very close in 2001. He had 244 at-bats with a .949 OPS.

    You should add the joke icon smilies when you say that stuff so people know that you're kidding.

    Hamilton has 208 at-bats with an OPS of .920. He'll be called up within a week and surpass 300 at-bats by the time the season's over, and his OPS will probably hover around .930-950. Most players coming off the DL start off hot. I'm sure he will, too.

    Thus, proving my point, the only player you could come up with that had similar numbers is the one and only Adam Dunn.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  12. #41
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Do you really want Jay Bruce sitting on the bench next year, or even the year aft

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    No. Before that.
    You don't think he was doing heavy drugs in High School? Of course he was. As with most addicts, he was probably doing drugs before he entered High School, especially the white middle-class kids who are the worst abusers of drugs.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  13. #42
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    Re: Do you really want Jay Bruce sitting on the bench next year, or even the year aft

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    You don't think he was doing heavy drugs in High School? Of course he was. As with most addicts, he was probably doing drugs before he entered High School, especially the white middle-class kids who are the worst abusers of drugs.
    Apparently you have never listened to Josh talk about what got him on drugs. He did not use drugs until he was well into the minor leagues.

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    Re: Do you really want Jay Bruce sitting on the bench next year, or even the year aft

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    You should add the joke icon smilies when you say that stuff so people know that you're kidding.

    Hamilton has 208 at-bats with an OPS of .920. He'll be called up within a week and surpass 300 at-bats by the time the season's over, and his OPS will probably hover around .930-950. Most players coming off the DL start off hot. I'm sure he will, too.

    Thus, proving my point, the only player you could come up with that had similar numbers is the one and only Adam Dunn.
    I really don't understand why you talk to people like that. Condescending tones don't really help things.

    Where are you getting Hamilton's stats from? Baseball Reference and ESPN both have him at 208 at-bats with a .914 OPS. I agree that his OPS may improve towards .950 by season's end but it could also drop. We'll find out when the season is over.

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    Re: Do you really want Jay Bruce sitting on the bench next year, or even the year aft

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    I really don't understand why you talk to people like that. Condescending tones don't really help things.

    Where are you getting Hamilton's stats from? Baseball Reference and ESPN both have him at 208 at-bats with a .914 OPS. I agree that his OPS may improve towards .950 by season's end but it could also drop. We'll find out when the season is over.
    I apologize for sounding condescending. I didn't realize I was doing that. Thanks for pointing that out and I'll try to reword things so they don't come out that way.

    That .914 OPS is currently 4 points higher than Dunn's .910 OPS.

    I can't see how anyone can find fault in a guy who's accomplishing that.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

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    Re: Do you really want Jay Bruce sitting on the bench next year, or even the year aft

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    I apologize for sounding condescending. I didn't realize I was doing that. Thanks for pointing that out and I'll try to reword things so they don't come out that way.

    That .914 OPS is currently 4 points higher than Dunn's .910 OPS.

    I can't see how anyone can find fault in a guy who's accomplishing that.
    Im not sure anyone is finding faults in what he is doing on the field.... its the questioning of counting on him to remain on the field.


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