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Thread: When do you expect we will see Cueto and Bailey in Cincinnati?

  1. #16
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: When do you expect we will see Cueto and Bailey in Cincinnati?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I don't think the odds are against pitcher in the majors at age 22 if they are good pitchers. There are TONS and TONS of guys at age 22 who performed just fine at the MLB level.
    There's a good four times that amount of guys who got creamed. All of them were supposed to be "special."
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  3. #17
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: When do you expect we will see Cueto and Bailey in Cincinnati?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    There's a good four times that amount of guys who got creamed. All of them were supposed to be "special."
    Well they obviously weren't though were they? I am not sure that the extra year or two in the minors would have made that difference. Sure it may have for some, but once they got shelled were they not sent down anyways?

  4. #18
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    Re: When do you expect we will see Cueto and Bailey in Cincinnati?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    m2, do you suggest we move pitchers 1 level at a time? I don't understand what you are talking about. Promoting players quickly is not some plan that destroys everyone. Every player is different. The Reds have promoted the guys that succeed. Lets not forget that Cueto started 26 games in Sarasota this and last season. He was promoted and spent minimal time in Chattanooga yes, but he also dominated while there. If he had began the season in Chattanooga this year and started 12 games there and performed exactly the same would it have been enough time, or would you have had him spend the entire year there?

    What is your take on Joba Chamberlain of the Yankees who went from A+ to the Yankees this season?

    I don't get the overpromotion thing if guys are being lights out.
    Chamberlain's had an insane year to be sure. Maybe he can be a good reliever from here to the end of the season. If the Yankees start him my guess is he'll get exposed and then, like all young pitchers who get exposed, he'll try to do too much. One thing he's got in his favor is a big frame. It makes for a nice shock absorber and it shouldn't be lost that guys like Dontrelle Willis and C.C. Sabathia had mature bodies at young ages.

    Bailey and Cueto are slight fellows with intriguing but decidedly sub-Lincecum stuff.

    In general, I'm for finishing a kid at the level where he started even when he's dominant. You don't know how a league's going to adjust to him. You don't know how an increased workload will affect him. Too often a kid gets hot and then he jumps two or three levels until he either cools down and/or gets way out of his depth.

    Six games in Chattanooga for Cueto was a ridiculously short stop at that level. The Reds, per their norm, have once again forgotten that pitching development is a drawn-out process that requires immense patience and self-restraint. We're not going to know what Johnny Cueto missed in AA and neither will he until a set of problems that he might have been able to work through at that level begins to gang up on him in AAA or the majors. How would Johnny Cueto handle AA with a tired arm? Give him a full season there and you'd likely find out. How's he going to handle more advanced hitters when they get a bit of book on him? No one knows.

    What I do know is the number of sub-24 pitchers who are much of any good in the majors is small (23's a bit of gray area, but 22 and under is usually fodder city). Most get hammered. Teams rush them for no reason. They're supposed to dominate in the minors and then teams act like doing what a top pitching prospect should do is suddenly exceptional. Matt Garza wasn't ready last year, now that he's had some time in AAA (which he didn't tear up) and with his 24th birthday getting closer, he's looking a lot better.

    The reason you don't promote a kid pitcher willy-nilly just because he had a few good games is the same reason you don't skip a kid ahead a grade everytime he/she gets a few A's. There's more to learn and that kid will need some time and space to learn it.
    Last edited by M2; 08-10-2007 at 04:57 PM.
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    Re: When do you expect we will see Cueto and Bailey in Cincinnati?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well they obviously weren't though were they? I am not sure that the extra year or two in the minors would have made that difference. Sure it may have for some, but once they got shelled were they not sent down anyways?
    I submit the success rate would be better if teams simply showed some basic restraint.

    Oliver Perez failed twice by the time was 24. Curt Schilling was deemed a lost cause by the Orioles and Astros before he broke through. The Orioles also gave up on John Maine at the ripe old age of 24. Roy Halladay had a disastrous season at age 23, but since then, I daresay, he's been pretty good.

    The Pirates figured Bronson Arroyo was a wash out at age 24. Randy Johnson wasn't doing squat in the majors until he was 26.

    Hasn't anybody noticed the large amounts of time it takes to develop truly good pitchers? The number of supposed failures who've gone on to succeed with different teams after their initial clubs gave up on them?

    If all you're trying to do is find that rare kid who can be wildly successful at a young age and stay healthy then keep with business as usual. Yet if you want to build a quality pitching staff I suggest taking a more measured approach.
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  6. #20
    We are the angry mob cincyinco's Avatar
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    Re: When do you expect we will see Cueto and Bailey in Cincinnati?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I submit the success rate would be better if teams simply showed some basic restraint.

    Oliver Perez failed twice by the time was 24. Curt Schilling was deemed a lost cause by the Orioles and Astros before he broke through. The Orioles also gave up on John Maine at the ripe old age of 24. Roy Halladay had a disastrous season at age 23, but since then, I daresay, he's been pretty good.

    The Pirates figured Bronson Arroyo was a wash out at age 24. Randy Johnson wasn't doing squat in the majors until he was 26.

    Hasn't anybody noticed the large amounts of time it takes to develop truly good pitchers? The number of supposed failures who've gone on to succeed with different teams after their initial clubs gave up on them?

    If all you're trying to do is find that rare kid who can be wildly successful at a young age and stay healthy then keep with business as usual. Yet if you want to build a quality pitching staff I suggest taking a more measured approach.
    Isn't there something to be said for those guys possibly learning from their failures? It may have taken a while. As Doug stated, every player is unique and different. If Cueto is able to pitch and pitch well, and learn at AAA while facing tougher competition... then whats the problem?

    Sometimes its good to challenge thy prospect, not coddle them. People rise to the occassion. Thrive on the adversity. And sometimes a prospect has to pay their dues and take their lumps(i.e. Oliver Perez, Roy Halladay, Schilling, etc.) in order to get over the hump and put it all together.

    There is nothing wrong with adversity, if said prospect has the pyschy to handle it. There is nothing wrong with a prospect learning to pick themselves up and dust themselves off when they have failed. There are lessons to be learned on this side of the coin as well.

    If this was the old Reds brass, doing the same ol' same ol', then I would more than likely echo your concerns a bit more M2. But this is a new regime, with different scouts, and different philosphies.. and it seems that this regime, for the most part, believes that a guy should go through each level and not be overpromoted. Krivsky has stated this many many times. But, as has been stated, each prospect is unique. They are individuals, with their own set of skills and own set of flaws. If Krivsky and CO deem it appropriate to promote someone, I'm going to trust in that for now, until I see an established track record of failure, ala the Bowden era.
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    Re: When do you expect we will see Cueto and Bailey in Cincinnati?

    The big key is that when they do take their lumps to not give up on them.
    Obviously Bronson Arroyo, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling etc didn't just wash out of the majors. If you're a good enough talent, you'll get it figured out.

    But the trick is for the Reds brain trust to trust themselves enough to think, hmm this kid is 22, it's pretty normal for 22 year olds to get kicked around in the majors, maybe we should stick with him.
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  8. #22
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: When do you expect we will see Cueto and Bailey in Cincinnati?

    One major reason for keeping a player at one level for an extended period of time even when doing very well, is to allow him to adjust to the ever-increasing pressure that exists with every level. This game is as much mental as it is physical.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  9. #23
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    Re: When do you expect we will see Cueto and Bailey in Cincinnati?

    I rarely have seen an ACE of a staff who didn't struggle his first 2 years in the Majors.

    Johan Santana is typical of this.

    The best pitcher in baseball for 2005-2006, yet he had an enormous ERA his first year that would have had most here screaming "over-rated" and "trade him while you can". His second year was no better than what Lohse gave the REDS these last two years, and that would have certainly had the "get rid of the bum" comments aflaring on this site.

    Pitching takes lot's of time and is a contant adjustment every year of one's career. Hitting is, too, but it doesn't have the roller-coaster swings in performance that pitching displays.

    A pitcher has a greater chance for success if he's moved up slower than moved up faster. Of course, you want to move him along perfectly, but if you are to error, error on the side of slow.

    The mental pressure of the game is just too difficult. See Coffey, Todd.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  10. #24
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: When do you expect we will see Cueto and Bailey in Cincinnati?

    Quote Originally Posted by cincyinco View Post
    Isn't there something to be said for those guys possibly learning from their failures? It may have taken a while. As Doug stated, every player is unique and different. If Cueto is able to pitch and pitch well, and learn at AAA while facing tougher competition... then whats the problem?

    Sometimes its good to challenge thy prospect, not coddle them. People rise to the occassion. Thrive on the adversity. And sometimes a prospect has to pay their dues and take their lumps(i.e. Oliver Perez, Roy Halladay, Schilling, etc.) in order to get over the hump and put it all together.
    A) There's plenty of failure to be found in the minors if you don't rush a kid past it. I categorically reject the notion that there's no learning to be done in the minors. I think there's a TON of learning to be done there and that not nearly enough kids get enough of it.

    B) I'm cool with them failing at age 24, often times at 23. I pretty much work off of the assumption that it's going to take 300 IP for a pitcher to learn the major league ropes. The difference in waiting is they're more mature, mentally and physically. They're also closer to the point where they can be successful. Hopefully it means fewer lumps to take and less of a chance for the club to get fickle.

    Quote Originally Posted by cincyinco View Post
    If this was the old Reds brass, doing the same ol' same ol', then I would more than likely echo your concerns a bit more M2. But this is a new regime, with different scouts, and different philosphies.. and it seems that this regime, for the most part, believes that a guy should go through each level and not be overpromoted.
    Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Don't get fooled again. This regime has pretty much promoted everyone who's played well. For the record, I was fine with moving Cueto to AA. He spent a year in Sarasota.

    What I see going on is the same desperate grabs into the minors that routinely failed in previous regimes. It's not going to work any better just because it's a new group of desperate folks doing the grabbing.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  11. #25
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: When do you expect we will see Cueto and Bailey in Cincinnati?

    I think people over-exaggerate the importance of advancing players slowly. Like dougdirt basically said, some players need it, and other don't, IMHO.

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    Re: When do you expect we will see Cueto and Bailey in Cincinnati?

    It seems I started quite a debate. I was fully expecting both players to spend next year at AAA refining their games, and it would seem the consensus is that both pitchers will be at the major league level next year, whether or not they are ready.I suppose both pitchers will take their lumps next year while they are adjusting to major league hitters. Bailey has had some experience, but it is possible he was hurt this year, and that may have had an effect on him this year. I hope for their sake they are ready when they come up.

  13. #27
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    Re: When do you expect we will see Cueto and Bailey in Cincinnati?

    I know this debate has raged for years and (btw) I always get caught up in it.

    I just fail to understand the thought that if a 22 year old pitcher is over promoted and comes to the big leagues and is hit hard that he is shot- that this experience does him irreperable harm. I don't get that. They have to be so mentally weak. Two years later, at age 24, would it make any difference? Maybe they just can't handle adversity......period.

    We have a case study! Is Bailey less of a prospect, in the eyes of the Reds, after his tenure in the bigs? I would certinly hope not.
    Last edited by NDRed; 08-12-2007 at 03:33 AM. Reason: typos


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