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Thread: Junior '06 vs. '07

  1. #16
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Junior '06 vs. '07

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog View Post
    How could you have possibly known that! You must have been Karnak the Magnificent in another life!



    Rem
    I just got BIG crystal balls.

    Last edited by GAC; 08-13-2007 at 10:36 AM.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

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  3. #17
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    Re: Junior '06 vs. '07

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Here's the bigger point though. Jr's overall value as a RFer just isn't an advantage for the Reds. Among fulltime RFers, PBP metrics like UZR thinks Jr's the worst defensive right fielder in the majors (he's probably a legitimate -20 defender).
    thinks? Don't they know if he is the worst RFer in MLB? Can't they show something more concrete?

    Offensively, he's on pace for 91 RC if he gets 600 PA. NL average for LF will likely be somewhere around 78.

    So that is above average. But he's a RFer, not LFer. And how does any of the above, runs created (which is offense), have anything to do with gauging his defensive ability/play in RF?

    By the below?..... runs scored vs runs allowed

    Given his defense, his total impact to the RS/RA for the Reds might be something below that of an average right fielder. Thats pretty much meh.
    Again - might be?

    Respectfully, it sounds like you're making assumptions and using guess work when utilizing the analogy of runs scored vs runs allowed.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

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    Re: Junior '06 vs. '07

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog View Post
    Remarkably consistant with last year except that he's roughly doubled his walk totals with almost the same number of base hits to bump his average up 20 points and his OBP almost 70.

    I'd suggest that his year has been the opposite of consistent, when comparted to last year.

    A doubling of walks to bump up his OBA about 70 points is the difference between a fair year and an excellent one.

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    Re: Junior '06 vs. '07

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    I'd suggest that his year has been the opposite of consistent, when comparted to last year.

    A doubling of walks to bump up his OBA about 70 points is the difference between a fair year and an excellent one.
    That's why I said 'except'.

    Rem

  6. #20
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    Re: Junior '06 vs. '07

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    thinks? Don't they know if he is the worst RFer in MLB? Can't they show something more concrete?
    Based upon UZR, JR is the worst rated RFer among starting RFers in the majors. It's crystal clear from UZR's perspective. I used "thinks"-that's MY language. When I only refer to one PBP metric to support a point, generally I try to soften the language.

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    Offensively, he's on pace for 91 RC if he gets 600 PA. NL average for LF will likely be somewhere around 78.

    So that is above average. But he's a RFer, not LFer. And how does any of the above, runs created (which is offense), have anything to do with gauging his defensive ability/play in RF?

    By the below?..... runs scored vs runs allowed
    I think it should be fairly obvious that the "LF" was a typo and should have read "RF" but I'm sorry for any confusion that may have caused.

    The point of considering both offense and defense was to get a true sense of Jr's actual worth. It's not that his bat in some way informs his defense. Rather it's his defense that cancels out the the impact his bat has on the Reds run differential.

    As it is, Jr's bat looks to be maybe a win or so above league average in RF assuming July was just a blip. His defense completely wipes out that advantage and really makes him a liability overall as an outfielder. Jr no longer is an elite player. If the Reds insist upon playing him in the outfield, Jr really is simply trying to tread water and the Reds are often at a disadvantage.

    Given the drag represented by his glove, there is tremendous pressure on Jr's bat. Frankly, his bat isn't good enough to rise to the occasion as an outfielder. His range really is that bad.


    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    Respectfully, it sounds like you're making assumptions and using guess work when utilizing the analogy of runs scored vs runs allowed.
    What I am doing is using ranges rather than speaking in absolutes while erroring in Jr's favor with each estimate. The only real assumptions I've made are that Jr isn't as bad defensively as UZR suggests he's been through the ASB (it thinks Jr is much worse than an -20 defender given 150 games) and that Jr's July was simply a rough patch and he's more likely to finish the year closer to his current season totals than his July split.

    Nobody has a crystal ball. I'm not sure why that would be used as an argument against an estimate.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Junior '06 vs. '07

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog View Post
    That's why I said 'except'.

    Rem
    But isn't that like saying "I'm rich, except that I am poor?"

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    Re: Junior '06 vs. '07

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    The point of considering both offense and defense was to get a true sense of Jr's actual worth.
    And I understand that. They are trying to give a "sense" of overall. And comparing runs created with runs allowed will give that.

    It's not that his bat in some way informs his defense. Rather it's his defense that cancels out the the impact his bat has on the Reds run differential.
    And IMHO, that's what makes it an incomplete (fallible) forumula (or analogy) to try an evalute/gauge one's defensive capabilites by comparing them to offensive capabilities and come up with a differential.

    For instance.... take a RFer who is a superb defensive OFer but is weak offensively. Wouldn't that give a (-) differential? And is that a sound way, using the differential, to evaluate him defensively?

    If one's bat does not necessarily inform (or impact) his defense, then how one then say it does though the other way around?

    Jr no longer is an elite player. If the Reds insist upon playing him in the outfield, Jr really is simply trying to tread water and the Reds are often at a disadvantage.
    No one, including myself, denies that Jr is no longer that elite defensive OFer. Certainly he has "lost a step" and his range is not what it once was. That is the main reason he is no longer in CF.

    But I have yet to see anything definitive that shows Jr as hurting/costing the Reds, and more importantly, is the worst RFer in MLB.

    "treading water" in RF? I've watched practically every game this year, and while he has taken time to get acclimated to RF, he has played a very capable (not elite) RF IMO.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

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    Re: Junior '06 vs. '07

    GAC: To me, Jr. appears to be below average in RF because of the number of balls that fall in front of him. It seems as if (and I'd really need to see some kind of chart to be sure) nearly every shallow fly ball into right is either a hit or caught by Phillips.

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    Re: Junior '06 vs. '07

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    And I understand that. They are trying to give a "sense" of overall. And comparing runs created with runs allowed will give that.
    So whats the debate about?

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    And IMHO, that's what makes it an incomplete (fallible) forumula (or analogy) to try an evalute/gauge one's defensive capabilites by comparing them to offensive capabilities and come up with a differential

    For instance.... take a RFer who is a superb defensive OFer but is weak offensively. Wouldn't that give a (-) differential? And is that a sound way, using the differential, to evaluate him defensively?
    It all depends upon just how good he is defensively and how weak he is offensively. But yes, clearly an above average defender could be a drag on a team's run differential. The minor leagues are full of feckless hitting, good fielding players whose gloves aren't good enough to carry their lack of production. Often times, a player like that can even make a team's 25 man roster. Occasionally there will be a rare player like an Everett whose defense will be so good that his bat can be really bad and overall he's still a significant advantage to his team relative to the league.

    That said, there sees to be a physical limit to how much above average a defender can be simply because the human body has limits. However, how bad a defender can be seems only limited by the willingness of a manager to keep running a guy out there.

    Generally the distribution is probably somewhere between -20 and +20 for major leaguers.

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    If one's bat does not necessarily inform (or impact) his defense, then how one then say it does though the other way around?
    I'm not arguing one effects the other. I'm arguing that to accurately assess a player's true worth, you have to sum the values of both. A player may have a 3 win bat. But if he's a -2 win defender, then his true value is that of a 1 win player. You can then take it even another logical step further. Based upon market conditions there is a set price for a win. Right now it's roughly $3.5M. So if you're paying a 1 win player, $12M, you've made a bad personnel decision.

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    No one, including myself, denies that Jr is no longer that elite defensive OFer. Certainly he has "lost a step" and his range is not what it once was. That is the main reason he is no longer in CF.

    But I have yet to see anything definitive that shows Jr as hurting/costing the Reds, and more importantly, is the worst RFer in MLB.

    "treading water" in RF? I've watched practically every game this year, and while he has taken time to get acclimated to RF, he has played a very capable (not elite) RF IMO.
    I'm not sure how it could get more definitive than charting every single defensive chance a player gets and categorizing them by where the ball was hit, how hard it was hit and what trajectory it took and then comparing his results to every single chance every other player who plays the same position has had while finally normalizing the data for a host of things like environment, handedness of the pitcher and batter etc.

    It's not enough to watch every single game that Jr has played to get a sense of how he compares to the league. You have to also watch a significant portion of the games his colleagues played as well.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Junior '06 vs. '07

    One thing to keep in mind is that if you have a centerfielder and a second baseman with great range, it has less of an impact if your rightfielder has poor range. I don't think you can really say a player is hurting your team unless you take into consideration who is around him on the field.

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    Re: Junior '06 vs. '07

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    One thing to keep in mind is that if you have a centerfielder and a second baseman with great range, it has less of an impact if your rightfielder has poor range. I don't think you can really say a player is hurting your team unless you take into consideration who is around him on the field.
    PBP metrics can account for the surrounding players.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Junior '06 vs. '07

    Quote Originally Posted by pahster View Post
    GAC: To me, Jr. appears to be below average in RF because of the number of balls that fall in front of him. It seems as if (and I'd really need to see some kind of chart to be sure) nearly every shallow fly ball into right is either a hit or caught by Phillips.
    But respectfully, I've heard that position expounded before, that alot of balls hit to RF seem to fall in front of him OR it's the 2Bman going out and getting the shallow ones. There's that "no man's land" in the OF where a majority of OFers are going to have a hard time getting to the ball, and we see either the SS going back (left side of 2B) or the 2bman going back (right side of 2B).

    And HOW does one determine that a ball hit into the OF, which falls in front of the Ofer, was catchable or should have been caught? Doesn't that lie more on the subjective? Does it take into account several other variables during that A/B, such as where the OFer positions himself due to who is A/B, runners on base, number of outs? Is he playing shallow, or is he playing deep?

    For me to simply say, and I have done it, "Boy, so-and so should have had that ball" is IMO, pretty subjective."

    When I have gone to to the games this year I, for the most part, like to sit in the RF seats or down along the 1bman line. To me, Jr's biggest problem, and it's a problem for most RFers, but maybe even a bigger one for Jr, are balls hit that go into the RF corner. He is not able to get over there fast enough to cut them off, and usually has to gauge them and try to play them off the walls.

    Again - I'm not denying Jr's decreased lack of range and motion. Just the assumption that he is the worst RFer in MLB.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

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    Re: Junior '06 vs. '07

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    PBP metrics can account for the surrounding players.
    Cool. I don't really pay attention to defensive measurements too much (mainly because I trust what I see more than what paper tells me). Do you happen to know if most measurements account for the fields on which they're playing?

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    Re: Junior '06 vs. '07

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Do you happen to know if most measurements account for the fields on which they're playing?
    In the latest version of UZR, park is considered.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  16. #30
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    Re: Junior '06 vs. '07

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    Again - I'm not denying Jr's decreased lack of range and motion. Just the assumption that he is the worst RFer in MLB.
    To go the subjective route, who is worse defensively in RF than Junior?

    As for the overall evaluation, given that we were using RC measurements which compared Junior to the average, aren't we merely saying that his defense brings the overall package down to average. Average is still better than half the starting RF out there right now and means Junior is an asset to the team. Whether average is worth 12M+ is another issue.

    It would be very interesting do some RC analysis on the whole league, including defense, and just show the rank of Reds starting position players across the NL. The overall point being made is that while Junior (and Dunn for that matter) are both solidly above average offensive players, their below average defense tempers their overall value in the RS-RA equation.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 08-14-2007 at 05:17 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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