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Thread: Junior '06 vs. '07

  1. #31
    Something clever pahster's Avatar
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    Re: Junior '06 vs. '07

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    And HOW does one determine that a ball hit into the OF, which falls in front of the Ofer, was catchable or should have been caught? Doesn't that lie more on the subjective? Does it take into account several other variables during that A/B, such as where the OFer positions himself due to who is A/B, runners on base, number of outs? Is he playing shallow, or is he playing deep?
    It would be relatively simple to determine how good or bad a job any fielder is doing relative to his peers with the correct dataset. In Jr.'s case, all we would have to do is compare the number and percent of plays he makes within his zones to that of every other RF. It's not perfect, but it would paint us a pretty good picture. I'd like to see a defensive chart of the 2007 Reds like the ones published in Dewan's Fielding Bible.

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  3. #32
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Junior '06 vs. '07

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    To go the subjective route, who is worse defensively in RF than Junior?
    That I couldn't tell you - subjectively. I'm really not able to watch alot of the other OFers throughout the majors.

    It would be very interesting do some RC analysis on the whole league, including defense, and just show the rank of Reds starting position players across the NL. The overall point being made is that while Junior (and Dunn for that matter) are both solidly above average offensive players, their below average defense tempers their overall value in the RS-RA equation.
    And I think the RS-RA equation can give one an indication of overall-ness. But I don't think it's a good indicator, is incomplete, when trying to breakdown/evaluate a player's offensive or defensive capabilites. Those, somehow, need to be broken down and looked at separatley to get an accurate "picture" IMHO.

    And I am a huge skeptic at those defensive matrix that currently exist. I relaize that is all we have at this stage, but again, I think they are not a solid/reliable gauge.

    With Runs Allowed - how is it charted? How is it determined what criteria must be met to classify a situation as "runs allowed"? Is it a group of guys sitting around charting balls hit into the OF (zones), and where run(s) are scored, subjectively saying "That ball should have been caught"? Or does it only qualify if the OFer commits an error on the play which allows run(s) to score? What is the criteria?
    Last edited by GAC; 08-14-2007 at 09:32 PM.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  4. #33
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Junior '06 vs. '07

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    And I think the RS-RA equation can give one an indication of overall-ness. But I don't think it's a good indicator, is incomplete, when trying to breakdown/evaluate a player's offensive or defensive capabilites. Those, somehow, need to be broken down and looked at separatley to get an accurate "picture" IMHO.
    I'm starting to realize that we're probably not on the same page. A team's run differential isn't used to evaluate a player's ability. Rather a player's worth is determined by measuring how his overall ability effects his team's run differential.

    Currently metrics such as RC or VORP estimate his true offensive value and PBP based metrics give the best picture of a player's true defensive value. A player's offensive and defensive abilities ARE determined separately. However to understand a player's true value, he must be evaluated by considering BOTH in concert-it's the sum of a player's defensive and offensive value that represents his effect on his team's run differential.

    While traditionally estimating the offensive side of things was much more accurate than the defensive side of things, the defensive side is rapidly advancing. What's more, major league FOs are viewing players through this new prism since defense followed OBP as the market inefficiency that teams pounced upon.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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