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Thread: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)...

  1. #46
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)...

    Quote Originally Posted by Coffeybro View Post
    First thing that comes to mind is behind by three runs late in the game with no outs. The whole arguement hinges on the fact that you can't guarantee a home run. Even Barry Bonds during his record home run season only had a 15.3% chance of hitting a home run when he had an ab. In his best home run hitting season Dunn's percentage of home runs is 8.1. Griffey had a percentage of 9 and 8.8 back in his 56 home run seasons. Say Dunn, Griffey, or any other shift afflicted batter practiced his bunting to the point he had a 50 percent chance of placing the ball where he wants it to go. I'd rather have a 50% chance of having a base runner than a 15% chance at best of getting a home run.
    OK, I see your point. Good explanation.

    It's not just a 15% (or less) chance of getting a home run. In this situation, its about not making an out so you can continue to score runs. He already has a career 38% chance of not making an out.

    Also, like others have pointed out, the other team would really rather he get on base so they can face the other dudes behind him who tend to make outs at a substantially higher rate than Dunn (other than the pickin' machine, that is.)
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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  3. #47
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)...

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    There's about as much logic to Dunn bunting as there is never ever leaving your house because you're afraid of a terrorist attack in Joplin, Missouri.
    Hey, you never know when the terrorists might want to strike the Northpark Mall. Trust me: the Joplinites would never see it coming.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  4. #48
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)...

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    There's about as much logic to Dunn bunting as there is never ever leaving your house because you're afraid of a terrorist attack in Joplin, Missouri.

    Yeah, you'll likely not die doing it, but then it sort of smashes the raison d'etre.
    People in Joplin have very little raison d'etre anyway.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  5. #49
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)...

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I don't know if I can add to that.

    Take the following situation: Reds down by 3, bottom of the 9th, runner on 1st, Dunn is up and Griffey is on deck. I'd just as soon Dunn bunt and bring Griffey to the plate as the tying run with runners on 1st and 2nd. If Dunn swings for the fences the best thing that can happen is he hits one out and the bases are cleared allowing them to pitch around Griffey.
    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    You'd rather be down 3 runs when Griffey steps to the plate than down 1 run?

    I wouldn't. Not in any situation.
    Yeah, it doesn't make intuitive sense.

    But playing devil's advocate for a minute, I went over to the Win Expectancy Finder. For all years, bottom of the ninth, runner on first, no one out...

    Hit a home run, leaving the game state as down one, bases empty: 18.8% chance of winning the game

    Bunt safely, leaving the game state as down three, runners first and second: 20.2% chance of winning the game

    No, I didn't expect that either. I don't put any stock in the notion of homers as rally-killers, but maybe there's something to be said for making a guy pitch from the stretch when the tying run comes up. So I guess if the home run is of minimal benefit to the win expectancy in that situation, and it's not very likely to happen anyway (< 10%), there's no good reason to turn down free OBP for its sake. Assuming Dunn was a proficient-enough bunter against the shift to reach base at a significantly higher rate than he normally would, of course.
    Not all who wander are lost

  6. #50
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)...

    Quote Originally Posted by Coffeybro View Post
    Say Dunn, Griffey, or any other shift afflicted batter practiced his bunting to the point he had a 50 percent chance of placing the ball where he wants it to go. I'd rather have a 50&#37; chance of having a base runner than a 15% chance at best of getting a home run.
    Let's take that 50% bunting success rate at face value (it seems insanely high to me, but for the sake of argument we'll leave it alone).

    So 1/2 the time Dunn puts the ball exactly where he wants it. That doesn't guarentee success by any means. The sucess rate is lowered if the pitcher falls off the mound the right way and gets to the bunt quickly. The success rate gets lowered if the ball goes exactly where Dunn wants it, takes a werid hop and ends up at the third baseman's feet. The success rate goes even lower if someone is on base infront of Dunn and is slow enough that a quick reaction by the defense results in him getting nailed. It also gets lowered if Dunn trips on the way to first and gets thrown out. Sure some of the scenarios are unlikely, but if we are playing the "what if game" they have to be considered.

    Point it is, even if Dunn can bunt the ball exactly where he wants it 50% of the time, it doesn't mean he'll make it onbase 50% of the time. Considering he already gets on base 37% of the time, unless he can get on base at least 38% of the time using the bunt he really hasn't acomplished anything.

    Except of course to take his most potent weapon out of his hand.

    Oh yea, if he does hit a homer, there's exactly nothing the defense can do to effect the outcome. It's 100% sucessfull every time it's tried. But heck, I'll settle for an EBH or even (gasp) a walk to keep the inning going.
    Last edited by Ltlabner; 08-21-2007 at 01:01 PM.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

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    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)...

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    People in Joplin have very little raison d'etre anyway.
    Is that the french raisn desert I've been hearing so much about?
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  8. #52
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)...

    Quote Originally Posted by registerthis View Post
    Hey, you never know when the terrorists might want to strike the Northpark Mall. Trust me: the Joplinites would never see it coming.
    Malls are the source of all evil in the world
    Go Gators!

  9. #53
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    Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)...

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    Let's take that 50% bunting success rate at face value (it seems insanely high to me, but for the sake of argument we'll leave it alone).

    So 1/2 the time Dunn puts the ball exactly where he wants it. That doesn't guarentee success by any means.
    Nobody's saying he should bunt everytime. Some of us are advocating an occasional bunt. Even Ted Williams bunted every now and then vs the shift. (The headline in bold print the next day was "Williams Bunts Safely").

    Such a recommendation doesn't really need intense statistical analysis...

  10. #54
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)...

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Nobody's saying he should bunt everytime. Some of us are advocating an occasional bunt.

    Such a recommendation doesn't really need intense statistical analysis...
    Well, I'd hardly call what I did an "intense statistical analysis" unless you consider fractions "intense".

    If the point of the excersize is to bunt to defeat the shift and cause teams to back off of using it, how does the occasional bunt acomplish that exactly? They'll take the occasonal bunt and continue trodding right along shifting to the oldies.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  11. #55
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)...

    Why is it that every discussion about Dunn has to turn into an argument about pastries?

    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  12. #56
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Why is it that every discussion about Dunn has to turn into an argument about pastries?

    I donut know!

  13. #57
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)...

    Some points about things stated in this thread:

    1. The Reds haven't been so awful for the last ten years becasue of anything to do with offensive philosophy. Homers, Station to Station Ball, Bunting, Whiteyball, Billyball, Big Red Machine, Killer Bs, Murderers row, whatever. None of that has any effect on what happens on the mound when the Reds aren't batting and that is why the Reds haven't won anything lately. The notion that Griffey and Dunn can change any of this by bunting is wrong.

    2. Bunting is primarily a percentage play that was created as a way to get something productive from a guy who was extremely likely to make an out anyway. That doesn't apply to hitters who get on base a high percentage of the time.

    3. Shift or no shift, I seriously doubt there is any way to guarantee that bunting would lead to a higher success rate than the normal OBP of the team's (or game's) better hitters. At best it would be a wash (or I'll be generous and give even a slight edge) from the OBP perspective and a serious drop from the slugging side of things that wipes away all advantage and more. Bunting is for outmakers.

    4. Top hitters reached their status by hitting. There was never any need for them to become accomplished bunters. Criticizing a good hitter because he can't bunt is almost as nutty as criticizing a good pitcher because he can't hit or a great defender because he can't pitch. Players like Hopper learn to bunt out of a necessity for survival. I don't think Griffey was ever faced with that.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  14. #58
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)...

    Ok I may be merging some topics here but here are my thoughts.

    The reds problems aren't all because of pitching. Their bullpen is bad but when they take a lead into the 8th inning they have won a lot of games in a row. One of the biggest problems I see with the reds is their poor hitting with runners in scoring position. IMO that one of the reasons for this problem is that they two most productive hitters are high obp guys but with lower averages. Both Jr. and Dunn get on base a lot but do it by walking quite a bit. They also have quite a few free swingers who don't have high averages. Phillips, Edwin, Ross, Valentine, Hamilton, etc. are all guys who are going to strike out quite a bit. There was someone who downgraded Cantu's 117 rbi season by saying he only got on base .315 of the time. Fact of the matter is he drove in 117 runs. The reds need more guys who are going to put the ball in play rather than take a walk. If I am an opposing manager and the reds have runner on second 2 outs and Dunn at bat I am going to pitch around him, nip at the corners because I know if he walks I face Edwin or Ross who are both lesser hitters than Dunn. The reds need more guys who are going to put the ball in play more often than not.

    As for Dunn and Jr and the bunt. They should be able to put that ball down the line and get a single with ease when called upon. I think this should be used more in situational basis. If the reds need baserunners I would be willing to bet if practiced Dunn and Jr could be successful bunting for this 50&#37; of the time. If your down 3 in the 8th or 9th base runners are almost more important than a solo hr. I am not saying they should bunt every time up but in certain situations a bunt should be used in order to get on base.

  15. #59
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)...

    The Reds are 7th in the NL in Runs Scored and dead last in Runs Allowed.

    Worrying about whether or not your two best hitters should bunt is like worrying about a scratch on your dashboard when you're driving around on 4 flat tires.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  16. #60
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    Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)...

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    The Reds are 7th in the NL in Runs Scored and dead last in Runs Allowed.

    Worrying about whether or not your two best hitters should bunt is like worrying about a scratch on your dashboard when you're driving around on 4 flat tires.
    If the Reds were better defensive drivers, they might only have 1 flat tire and perhaps one that was leaky but workable.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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