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Thread: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)...

  1. #61
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)...

    Just a reminder that we do have a park effect to deal with. Over the course of the season, GABP boosts the Reds overall RS and RA totals by ~5%.

    Yes, we're still worse pitching wise than hitting. However, a staff full of league average pitchers would still produce worse than league average results. Our "league average" offense is actually below average and worst in the league pitching is more "among the worst in the league". Both are problems.

    As for the bunting logic, I'll stick to a simple OPS comparison. A 70% success rate would leave Dunn with a .700 OPS. I'll stick to the .900 OPS version with the possible exception of the bases empty and an increased likelihood of success due to positioning. Any other time, I want him swinging.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 08-22-2007 at 10:32 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #62
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)...

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    The reds need more guys who are going to put the ball in play rather than take a walk.
    The tradeoff is not "Hits for Walks". It's "Outs for Walks". Swinging at balls out of the strike zone simply doesn't produce the effect you're looking for. Here are the 2007 NL correlations for RISP behavior and team overall Runs Scored:

    BA/RISP to RS: 0.33
    SLG/RISP to RS: 0.53
    OBP/RISP to RS: 0.58
    OPS/RISP to RS: 0.59

    Now here's a doozy...

    K per AB/RISP to RS: 0.26
    BB per AB/RISP to RS: 0.27

    If team BB and Strikeouts with RISP are supposed to suppress a team's ability to score Runs, then why do both high K and BB rates with RISP have slight positive correlations with high overall offensive Run output this season? In fact, both correlate at a rate only slightly less than Batting Average. Why is Batting Average w/RISP less related to overall Run output than things like SLG, OBP and OPS?

    The answer to the first question is that high K rates correlate to high SLG rates this season at a 0.42 clip and high BB rates correlate to high OBP rates at 0.51. The answer to the second question is that Batting Average is only one component of OBP, SLG, and OPS rather than the production driver it's made out to be.

    It's obvious that as it relates to overall Run Scoring simply looking for high contact rate with RISP is not the right goal. The right goal is high OBP, SLG, and OPS performance regardless of how hitters produce those results. The Reds' 2007 offensive "style" is not an issue. What has been an issue is that the team's lineup has been too consistently littered with poor hitters. And while it would help to fix that, the real issue with the Reds' record is that the pitching staff has given up more Runs than any other NL team.

    If your down 3 in the 8th or 9th base runners are almost more important than a solo hr.
    Never. Ask yourself whether you'd rather go into the ninth Inning down by three runs or two runs. That's what a solo Home Run represents regardless of when it's hit during said ninth Inning.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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  4. #63
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)...

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Just a reminder that we do have a park effect to deal with. Over the course of the season, GABP boosts the Reds overall RS and RA totals by ~5%.
    The Reds are tied with the Braves for 7th in Runs Scored at home (the Braves have played 4 more home games than the Reds). Surprisingly, they're 4th in Runs Scored on the road.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  5. #64
    Something clever pahster's Avatar
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    Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)...

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    As for the bunting logic, I'll stick to a simple OPS comparison. A 70% success rate would leave Dunn with a .700 OPS. I'll stick to the .900 OPS version with the possible exception of the bases empty and an increased likelihood of success due to positioning. Any other time, I want him swinging.
    Wouldn't a 70% successful bunting rate lead to a 1.400 OPS? OBP would = AVG = .700, SLG = AVG?

  6. #65
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)...

    Quote Originally Posted by pahster View Post
    Wouldn't a 70% successful bunting rate lead to a 1.400 OPS? OBP would = AVG = .700, SLG = AVG?
    D'oh. Somehow thinking that they wouldn't count for SLG... My bad.

    So, with bases empty Dunn has hit .252/.353/.528 for his career. The relative value of OBP and SLG shifts towards the OBP side with the bases empty. If Dunn can bunt single successfully 40-45% of the time, he'd break even with what he's doing now. If it's upwards of 50%, he should definitely go for it.

    The problem, as stated earlier, is that guys like Adam Dunn don't get very much practice bunting, and for good reason. I have serious doubts that Dunn could sustain 40%+ success. Furthermore, I wouldn't want Dunn taking the possibility of extra bases away from himself when he's batting 5th and has 3 .700 OPS guys behind him who aren't likely to move him around.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 08-22-2007 at 10:59 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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