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Thread: What's the Difference in the Cardinals and Reds??

  1. #1
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    What's the Difference in the Cardinals and Reds??

    AFter suffering through a really frustrating night watching baseball, I had to ponder why the Cardinals, who appear to be no better than our team, are contending and we are just out ot lunch. So I went to the stats and figured out something.

    Hitting

    The Cards hit for average better (.272 vs. our .260), slightly get on base more often (.337 vs. 330), and actually get more base hits (1102 vs. 1099 and we have 46 more ABs!). We score more runs (580 vs. 534), hit way more HRs (161 vs. 106), and have a better OPS (.760 vs. .740). We have 14 less singles than they do, for what it's worth.

    Pitching

    They've played two less games than us, but we've played 32 moe innings. They've allowed an average of 9.41 hits per 9 innings and we've allowed 10.04 hits. They've alloweed 549 ER and we've allowed 600. We've allowed 46 unearned runs while they've allowed 54. Interesting. Our staff has allowed 18 more HR's. They have a 4.65 ERA and we have a 4.93 ERA.

    The difference? Pitching. Our staff is very hittable while theirs is less so. It's all in the pitching. And it means 5 moe wins and a difference in 6 games in the standings. It all goes back to the bullpen (I know, you're thinking, Doh!), but that's what it is.

    Think we could lure Dave Duncan over here? that might be the difference.

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  3. #2
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: What's the Difference in the Cardinals and Reds??

    The Reds and the Cardinals are roughly the same team. The Reds have been outscored by 62 runs. The Cardinals have been outscored by 64 runs. The difference? Luck.

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    Re: What's the Difference in the Cardinals and Reds??

    Coaching. Dave Duncan to mention mostly. They get the most out of the garbage they put out there.

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: What's the Difference in the Cardinals and Reds??

    I blame it all on Jerry Narron, basically.

  6. #5
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: What's the Difference in the Cardinals and Reds??

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The Reds and the Cardinals are roughly the same team. The Reds have been outscored by 62 runs. The Cardinals have been outscored by 64 runs. The difference? Luck.
    Yep. The "intangibles" are/can be a factor; but I've got a pretty good clue as to why we're in the position we're in..... (based on NL ranking)

    Code:
     STARTER
    ERA 4.90     16th
    WHIP 1.45    15th
    OB% .335     8th
    SLG% .448    14th
    OPS .794     15th
    RA 638       1st 
    ERS 592      1st
    BAA .282     16th (tied with PITT)
    TB 1909      2nd
    HRS 133      4th



    and it gets better.....

    Code:
     BULLPEN
    
    ERA       5.16     16th
    WHIP      1.56     16th
    OB%       .366     16th
    SLG%      .444     16th
    OPS       .810     16th
    RA         224     1st      
    ERS        209     1st
    BAA       .280     16th 
    TB         629     3rd
    HRS         48     3rd
    I just found out I may have a torn left tricep.... so I've decided to send in my resume to this FO.
    Last edited by GAC; 08-19-2007 at 08:50 AM.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

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    Re: What's the Difference in the Cardinals and Reds??

    Excellent thread. The two teams have had relatively close stats on runs scored/allowed all year, yet the Cards are better. Why?

    There is one glaring statistical difference. As of this morning, the Reds bullpen has a 5.24 ERA. The Cards is 3.83. This is the difference in the teams. The bullpen WHIP difference is 1.27 v. 1.56 in favor of the Cards. (Reds 1.56 bullpen WHIP is quite a number.)

    The Cards pen is 21-8 in WL. The Reds is 18 -21. That's 13 fewer bullpen losses for the Redbirds (and three more wins too). There is only a 6 game difference between them in the standings, so this bullpen difference is huge.

    The Reds have the worst overall team ERA in the National League. But the starting ERA is 4.77 which is 11th. Not good. But better than the Cards and a number of other teams.

    A 5.24 bullen is particularly bad because in close games, with all other things being equal, it gives a late inning advantage to the opposition. As the year moves on, and the sample size becomes larger, the Reds bullpen becomes more and more the issue.

    It's interesting that the Cards' bullpen has 10 fewer decisions than the Reds'. That pen is so good that the team might be better served if LaRussa used it earlier in games.

    For next year, the Reds must fix this bullpen problem. 5.24 and 1.56 are just not even close.
    Last edited by Kc61; 08-19-2007 at 10:55 AM.

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    Re: What's the Difference in the Cardinals and Reds??

    And yet surprisingly, it's the bullpen I feel okay about going into next year.

    I think Weathers, Burton, and Bray will take care of the late innings in some combination. Then you probably have Belisle for long relief stints and Coutlangus and (Mcbeth/Salmon/a multitude of challengers) for the other spots.

    The big key is getting a third starter who can give the innings Arroyo and Harang give you so you don't have to see the back end of the bullpen so much.
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
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    Re: What's the Difference in the Cardinals and Reds??

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    And yet surprisingly, it's the bullpen I feel okay about going into next year.

    I think Weathers, Burton, and Bray will take care of the late innings in some combination. Then you probably have Belisle for long relief stints and Coutlangus and (Mcbeth/Salmon/a multitude of challengers) for the other spots.

    The big key is getting a third starter who can give the innings Arroyo and Harang give you so you don't have to see the back end of the bullpen so much.
    We shouldn't kid ourselves. Bullpen guys get hurt, have bad years, get overused. Weathers, Bray and Burton-- plus several maybes --is just not enough. Not nearly.

    This year, I feel that if Coffey had done well and Bray had been healthy it would have made a big difference. Those guys can pitch often and multiple innings. But it didn't happen. The pen was too thin to recover from this. They can't count on only two or three guys. And the Reds can't count on AAA kids with no track record, not for the main bullpen slots.

    The Reds need to add good relievers from outside the organization. And more than one. Leave open one or two spots for kids coming up, but that's about it. They need another starter too.
    Last edited by Kc61; 08-19-2007 at 11:12 AM.

  10. #9
    Member VR's Avatar
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    Re: What's the Difference in the Cardinals and Reds??

    Advance scouting has always been a major focus for the Cardinals.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

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    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: What's the Difference in the Cardinals and Reds??

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    We shouldn't kid ourselves. Bullpen guys get hurt, have bad years, get overused. Weathers, Bray and Burton-- plus several maybes --is just not enough. Not nearly.

    This year, I feel that if Coffey had done well and Bray had been healthy it would have made a big difference. Those guys can pitch often and multiple innings. But it didn't happen. The pen was too thin to recover from this. They can't count on only two or three guys. And the Reds can't count on AAA kids with no track record, not for the main bullpen slots.

    The Reds need to add good relievers from outside the organization. And more than one. Leave open one or two spots for kids coming up, but that's about it. They need another starter too.
    Good point and what I was getting at when I started this thread. After Arroyo and Harang, we have no starting pitching. We have either soft tossers (Livingston), head cases (Belisle), unproven phenoms (Homer, others). Two do not make a starting staff. That is important to fix and not with a band-aid of washed up pitchers who you get and cross your fingers, which has been the custom around here for longer than I can remember. And Kc61 is correct in that bullpens are for the most part iffy at best.

    I think Weathers, Burton, and Bray will take care of the late innings in some combination. Then you probably have Belisle for long relief stints and Coutlangus and (Mcbeth/Salmon/a multitude of challengers) for the other spots.
    And the above is another reason for worry. Weathers has shown that he is very hittable. Not the best thing for a reliever, even though he has performed very well this year. All those innings will in time cause him to be ineffective. You just don't know about Burton the head case and Courlangus. They have had their bad moments too (Burton has 19 walks in 26 innings--ouch!). And Bray, for all the ballyhoo, has proved nothing.

    One thing is clear. Fix the pitching and we are 10 games over .500 and all the moaning about hitting with RISP and Adam Dunn goes away. Once again, it can't be done with has beens and guys who don't miss bats. It can't be picking a guy off the trash bin and, like I say, crossing our fingers.

    that's what frustrates me so much. Give Mike Stanton and Cromier the world and skimp on the rest. It's a flawed philosophy.
    Advance scouting has always been a major focus for the Cardinals.
    And good scouting at that. And having pitchers grasp the scouting report, which seems non-existant here. Of course, our advance scout is now managing and wasn't replaced, which may show a deep philosophical difference in the two team's front office.
    Last edited by WVRedsFan; 08-19-2007 at 12:52 PM.

  12. #11
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: What's the Difference in the Cardinals and Reds??

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    And yet surprisingly, it's the bullpen I feel okay about going into next year.

    I think Weathers, Burton, and Bray will take care of the late innings in some combination. Then you probably have Belisle for long relief stints and Coutlangus and (Mcbeth/Salmon/a multitude of challengers) for the other spots.

    The big key is getting a third starter who can give the innings Arroyo and Harang give you so you don't have to see the back end of the bullpen so much.
    Agree. If the Reds can only add one thing because they don't have the bucks or talent to acquire more than one player, then a starter (preferrably some one better than Arroyo) needs to be added.

    But I'd like to see at least one reliable late inning reliever (prefer a power stud, but even a decent reliable type would be ok). In this day and age even 3 good relievers isn't enough. Teams that win need to run-off long winning streaks and with starters going only 6 these days, that would lead to pitching the same three guys every day.

    Of course this assumes Dunn stays around. If he goes they'll need offense too.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: What's the Difference in the Cardinals and Reds??

    And good scouting at that. And having pitchers grasp the scouting report, which seems non-existant here.
    Scouting reports and game plans are only as good as execution. Bad pitchers do not know where the ball is going, so they may fully intend with any one pitch to pitch to the scouting report, but cannot execute it. This isn't rocket science, its about ability moreso than coaching and brains.

  14. #13
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: What's the Difference in the Cardinals and Reds??

    Since July 3rd (the first day of the Mackanin era), the Reds are the best team in the division....the record says so.

    I don't make this stuff up

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    Re: What's the Difference in the Cardinals and Reds??

    And good scouting at that. And having pitchers grasp the scouting report, which seems non-existant here. Of course, our advance scout is now managing and wasn't replaced, which may show a deep philosophical difference in the two team's front office.
    Trust me, they have many more advance scouts than people know about. They have guys doing video advancing, which I feel is more important than having someone go watch a game. They chart their opponents and go over it with the coaches before every game.

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    So Long Uncle Joe BoydsOfSummer's Avatar
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    Re: What's the Difference in the Cardinals and Reds??

    One million in attendance?
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