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Thread: PMLV for the 2007 Reds

  1. #1
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    PMLV for the 2007 Reds

    Poisitonal Marginal Lineup Value is an interesting stat because if takes into account the offensive contribution relative to a position.

    MLV is an estimate of the additional number of runs a given player will contribute to a lineup that otherwise consists of average offensive performers.
    Positional MLV. Runs contributed by a batter beyond what an average player at the same position would produce in a team of otherwise league-average hitters.
    So even though guys may be doing OK in terms of an "average player", they don't stack up so well when the position is taken into account. Obviously offensive production at SS is more valuable than at 1B, etc.

    Code:
    Player		MLV	pMLV	VORP
    Adam Dunn	29.5	20.7	36.8
    Ken Griffey Jr.	26.4	17.2	32.8
    Jeff Keppinger	13.6	13.6	16.9
    Josh Hamilton	14.9	13.0	20.1
    Scott Hatteberg	15.6	8.4	21.5
    B Phillips	 7.1	5.4	24.0
    Alex Gonzalez	 3.4	4.0	13.7
    Javier Valentin	 0.3	3.9	6.6
    Norris Hopper	 1.1	-0.2	4.9
    Jeff Conine	-2.1	-5.8	3.2
    David Ross	-13.0	-7.8	-2.1
    E Encarnacion	-5.3	-9.5	4.3
    Ryan Freel	-11.0	-12.7	-4.7
    reds really wasted a lot of ABs on certain players(especially Conine and Freel). At least with EE there is a developmental aspect.
    Last edited by flyer85; 08-22-2007 at 11:22 AM.
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  3. #2
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: PMLV for the 2007 Reds

    Which position is Keppinger's pMLV calculated for?
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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    Designated Threadkiller LincolnparkRed's Avatar
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    Re: PMLV for the 2007 Reds

    Interesting that Ross is so low. I thought his homers would counteract his lack of batting average, at least for his position.
    Climbing down from the bridge, but keeping the torch lit until Dusty's fate is settled

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    Re: PMLV for the 2007 Reds

    What's VORP?

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: PMLV for the 2007 Reds

    VORP: Value Over Replacement Player is the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement level player would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances

    http://www.stathead.com/bbeng/woolner/vorpdescnew.htm
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: PMLV for the 2007 Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    VORP: Value Over Replacement Player is the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement level player would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances

    http://www.stathead.com/bbeng/woolner/vorpdescnew.htm
    OK, how does that differ from MLV?

  8. #7
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: PMLV for the 2007 Reds

    So, does MLV basically tell me how much above or below "league average" a player is?

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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: PMLV for the 2007 Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    Which position is Keppinger's pMLV calculated for?
    I would think it is a combination
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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: PMLV for the 2007 Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    OK, how does that differ from MLV?
    IIRC, rate versus counting.
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  11. #10
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: PMLV for the 2007 Reds

    Also, pMLV is relative to average whereas VORP is versus replacement. BP has it in their custom stats as a per game measurement. Here are 3B for all of baseball.

    Code:
    Rank	Year	Player		Pos	PA	MLVr	PMLVr	RPMLVr		VORPr	MLV
    1.	2007	Miguel Cabrera	3b	525	.475	0.431	0.55526		0.553	57.3
    2.	2007	Ryan Braun	3b	345	.470	0.426	0.55021		0.558	37.9
    3.	2007	Chipper Jones	3b	456	.427	0.384	0.50788		0.516	44.7
    4.	2007	David Wright	3b	542	.301	0.257	0.38119		0.427	37.6
    5.	2007	Aramis Ramirez	3b	408	.274	0.231	0.35463		0.355	25.9
    6.	2007	Mike Lamb	3b	307	.126	0.091	0.20878		0.209	8.9
    7.	2007	Wilson Betemit	3b	192	.095	0.088	0.18765		0.188	4.2
    8.	2007	Mark Reynolds	3b	290	.084	0.045	0.16579		0.157	5.8
    9.	2007	Garrett Atkins	3b	524	.077	0.032	0.15719		0.160	9.2
    10.	2007	Ryan Zimmerman	3b	558	.073	0.028	0.15295		0.162	9.6
    11.	2007	Chad Tracy	3b	259	.047	0.002	0.12723		0.127	2.9
    12.	2007	Tony Abreu	3b	128	.015	-0.008	0.1066		0.107	0.4
    13.	2007	Jose Bautista	3b	452	-.001	-0.048	0.07646		0.074	-0.1
    14.	2007	Scott Rolen	3b	418	-.008	-0.052	0.07264		0.070	-0.7
    15.	2007	Edwin Encarnaci	3b	421	-.055	-0.098	0.02555		0.044	-5.3
    16.	2007	Pedro Feliz	3b	470	-.081	-0.126	-0.00095	-0.009	-8.8
    17.	2007	Morgan Ensberg	3b	259	-.090	-0.114	-0.0034		-0.013	-5.4
    18.	2007	Kevin Kouzmanof	3b	375	-.091	-0.129	-0.0085		-0.005	-7.9
    19.	2007	Wes Helms	3b	277	-.123	-0.157	-0.03948	-0.039	-7.6
    20.	2007	Craig Counsell	3b	283	-.179	-0.182	-0.07305	-0.073	-11.9
    21.	2007	Jose Castillo	3b	193	-.206	-0.214	-0.10613	-0.106	-9.3
    22.	2007	Abraham Nunez	3b	238	-.208	-0.231	-0.11958	-0.114	-11.1
    23.	2007	Alberto Callasp	3b	137	-.403	-0.426	-0.31274	-0.331	-13.2
    Here are NL 3B rankings with some variations of MLV:

    MLV: Marginal Lineup Value. MLV is an estimate of the additional number of runs a given player will contribute to a lineup that otherwise consists of average offensive performers.
    MLVr: MLV rate (per game)
    PMLVr: Positional MLV rate (per game)
    RPMLVr: Replacement level MLV rate (per game)
    VORPr: VORP rate (per game)

    The only real difference between RPMLVr and VORPr is baserunning. VORP counts it. MLV doesn't.

    So, EE is below average but above replacement. But he's been the worst above replacement 3B in the NL this year.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 08-22-2007 at 12:19 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #11
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: PMLV for the 2007 Reds

    What do they define as replacement? I would assume it would be average but apparently not. How do determine what replacement stats are?

  13. #12
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: PMLV for the 2007 Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    What do they define as replacement? I would assume it would be average but apparently not. How do determine what replacement stats are?
    Take a gander at the link I posted or just google VORP. Lots of explanations floating around out there.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  14. #13
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: PMLV for the 2007 Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Take a gander at the link I posted or just google VORP. Lots of explanations floating around out there.
    I read your link and that guy has way too much time on his hands...

    He defines replacement level as 70 pts less than average for whatever reason. OK

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    Re: PMLV for the 2007 Reds

    Makes Josh Hamilton all that more amazing.
    I'd give my right arm to be ambidextrous.- Stan Helsing

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    Re: PMLV for the 2007 Reds

    Can't players get unfairly dinged for playing a position with a wealth of talent? I mean a half dozen great players at a position will jack up the "average".
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